Moana 2 128m/187 5 day

Wicked 65m/94m
Gladiator 35m/50

Has Moana 2 been screened...? Feels like there's no talk about how it is. Kinda feeling it's gonna be very meh.

That said, it'll be interesting if it can do Inside Out 2 #s.

I think it will be big in its first 5-days but its overall total will probably be barely past a 2x multiplier.

It's obvious that for a company that takes so long on sequels like Frozen and Zootopia that Moana 2 coming out of nowhere from original TV idea was a panic move after Disney's cold stretch and likely to create 90s DTV quality. Maybe they can make a Moana 3 that's the second best of the series.

Id think Moana 2 would be fairly critical proof. Lots of mediocre family films from Illumination come out and still have over under 3x multiple.

Even if Moana 2 had Good Dinosaur legs looks pretty much safe for well over 400m total.

Yeah, also the world is more accommodating and receptive to direct-to-video movies.

Moana 2 - 200m+ by this sunday.

Charlie thinks 225m+ in play. Presales are stronger than IO2 and Mario. But I am hearing the movie is mid and reviews will also be mixed. This is not dreamworks or fan driven enough to overcome meh reviews. So I am not expecting Inside Out2/Mario walkups for this movie. Still the presales are too strong for even the reviews to prevent a big OW.

Interesting...

I think as long as its not awful it should be fine. Frozen 2 was honestly not that strong but did fine legs wise.

Monday estimates from Charlie:

Wicked $15.5-16M
Gladiator $5.6M

If Gladiator follows Ford vs Ferrari's Monday to 5day tally, will do $45.1M over the 5day ($114.5M by Sunday). Wicked could do $246M by my estimates for Sunday.

70% start for Moana 2 on RT. Doesn't seem like it's awful so ya it'll make $$$

Red One increased 16% Monday-to-Monday. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever increased 99%.

Even the decent reviews seem to be rather cynical though. "This is for people who wanna watch the same movie but with a number in the title" or "It could have been even more special if it was a real movie, but it isn't"

They are not bad enough to dissuade people who want to see it, might hurt its repeat viewing though.

Oh definitely not. This is a "they are who we thought they were" situation. Parents and kids should be happy with the experience, everyone else will be like "well that was ok for a cinemized tv show."

They pulled a Toy Story 2 with Moana 2. I like to shit on Disney but a truly inspired move by Iger here.

Toy Story 2 is one of the best animated films of all time and one of the best sequels animated or live, what are you talking about? Moana 2 sounds more like a dreamworks/ illumination sequel

Having seen the film I expect Moana will have meh WOM. However, don’t know how much that can hurt it.

Right, Toy Story 2 is one of the best films ever period. An existential masterpiece.

Not referring to quality.

Referring to the fact that Toy Story 2 was going to be direct to video and then Disney decided to release it theatrically.

Same thing happened to Moana 2 and it will reap some major BO rewards.

Problem was TS2 even if it was made DTV was made with lot of care as back then things happened at leisurely pace and it was made by the same creative team of 1st movie. Here it seems they made something for D+ but saw how popular the characters were just converted it to theatrical release.

Nothing wrong as this movie is going to make shit ton of money despite middling reception. I am seeing around 11m ish previews(hard to extrapolate due to discount tuesday effect). Deadline reported 12m+ previews. Wednesday by itself is targeting high 30s without tuesday previews. Even with not so great trend it will make 175m+ by sunday. Could even hit 200m+ if trend is good.

So we're at $7,197,213,029 for the year as of Monday.

Last year was at $8,908,478,987.

Moana is doing perhaps $175M+ over the next 5 days. Wicked seems like its $120M+. Gladiator $40M+. Not counting holdovers, could bring us closer to $7.6B by Sunday.

Wicked could do another $150M in Dec. I think. Give Gladiator another $50M. Moana another $150M. Another $30M for Red One. Other holdover bump ups from the holidays, re-releases of awards films, maybe can round us out to $8B.

So that leave another $900M for Dec new films. Such a shame Mufasa won't be a massive mega breakout but at least we're going to be close to last year.

I thought they famously redid the whole movie in 9 months as couldn't move dates as they were the locked into toy contracts.

I'd say a lot closer than expected considering Q1 was empty! I think 2025 will struggle to match it.

Better decision would have been to make an actual Moana sequel instead of a DTV sequel.