October 29-31 predictions
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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October 29-31 predictions
This is the Halloween weekend, don't forget!
You know the drill.
I'll do the openers and The Grudge for now:
The Grudge - $21.2 million
SAW - $17.3 million
Ray - $11.1 million
PS: Can anyone sticky this? :wink:
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:40 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Saw- $16.5
Ray- $11.2
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:42 pm |
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Mister Ecks
New Server, Same X
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:07 pm Posts: 28295 Location: ... siiiigh...
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The Grudge: $19.3m
Saw: $13.2m (hope it does more)
Ray: Not really sure
_________________ Ecks Factor: Cancelled too soon
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:50 pm |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm Posts: 678
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I think Ray will be #2. I think there's a lot wider audience for this movie and it will be very focused in the cities where those 1500 theatres are.
_________________ misterglass/NYC
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:54 pm |
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Cady
Waitress in LA
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:20 am Posts: 23
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The Grudge - $20.7 (Only 4 off from what I predicted it's first weekend would be. )
Ray - $15.6
Saw - $8.9 (I honestly think this is vastly being overpredicted. I don't think much of the mainstream even knows about it. It's not had the same... buzz around it by everyday people that The Grudge had in the few weeks before it's release. Just a bunch of Internet-savvy people talking all about it. That's it. It may do a bit more, but not much. I see it having good legs, though.)
_________________
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:27 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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1. The Grudge - $16.1 (-54%)
-OK Halloween drop
2. Ray - $12.0
-Mystic River style
3. Saw - $8.8
-no one knows about it
4. Shark Tale - $8.7 (-37%)
-Slightly bigger drop due to Halloween.
5. Shall We Dance - $5.5 (-35%)
-Great legs
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.7 (-38%)
-This should slowly start dropping more due to high school football season ending
7. Team America - $4.2 (-40%)
-Nice drop
8. Ladder 49 - $3.7 (-33%)
-Nice drop as well
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:40 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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micasey300 wrote: 1. The Grudge - $16.1 (-54%) -OK Halloween drop 2. Ray - $12.0 -Mystic River style 3. Saw - $8.8 -no one knows about it 4. Shark Tale - $8.7 (-37%) -Slightly bigger drop due to Halloween. 5. Shall We Dance - $5.5 (-35%) -Great legs 6. Friday Night Lights - $4.7 (-38%) -This should slowly start dropping more due to high school football season ending 7. Team America - $4.2 (-40%) -Nice drop 8. Ladder 49 - $3.7 (-33%) -Nice drop as well
Actually, look at last year. On the Halloween weekend, all movies fell less than 30%.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:11 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Dr. Lecter wrote: micasey300 wrote: 1. The Grudge - $16.1 (-54%) -OK Halloween drop 2. Ray - $12.0 -Mystic River style 3. Saw - $8.8 -no one knows about it 4. Shark Tale - $8.7 (-37%) -Slightly bigger drop due to Halloween. 5. Shall We Dance - $5.5 (-35%) -Great legs 6. Friday Night Lights - $4.7 (-38%) -This should slowly start dropping more due to high school football season ending 7. Team America - $4.2 (-40%) -Nice drop 8. Ladder 49 - $3.7 (-33%) -Nice drop as well Actually, look at last year. On the Halloween weekend, all movies fell less than 30%.
Except Scary Movie 3. :wink:
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:14 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Zingaling wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: micasey300 wrote: 1. The Grudge - $16.1 (-54%) -OK Halloween drop 2. Ray - $12.0 -Mystic River style 3. Saw - $8.8 -no one knows about it 4. Shark Tale - $8.7 (-37%) -Slightly bigger drop due to Halloween. 5. Shall We Dance - $5.5 (-35%) -Great legs 6. Friday Night Lights - $4.7 (-38%) -This should slowly start dropping more due to high school football season ending 7. Team America - $4.2 (-40%) -Nice drop 8. Ladder 49 - $3.7 (-33%) -Nice drop as well Actually, look at last year. On the Halloween weekend, all movies fell less than 30%. Except Scary Movie 3. :wink:
True, I meant all other holdovers.
Or did I?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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Technically, Scary Movie 3 was a holdover. That was very frontloaded, though.
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:20 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Actually, look at last year. On the Halloween weekend, all movies fell less than 30%.
Good point. I wonder how Halloween being on a Sunday is going to affect the weekend, instead of being on a Saturday.
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:24 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Zingaling wrote: Technically, Scary Movie 3 was a holdover. That was very frontloaded, though.
And it also wasn't very good
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:26 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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It'll only make it better, if you ask me. Friday and Saturday are big days for movies, and makes it better to go Trick or Treating. Yet, the drops were so good for most movies. I think it being on Sunday this year will make the drops better, because Sunday is not one of those days where teens go out to watch movies. Well, most.
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:26 pm |
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Mister Ecks
New Server, Same X
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:07 pm Posts: 28295 Location: ... siiiigh...
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I think if people went to the movies, seen the poster for "Saw", and thought it looked good, it could make some money. For now, I'll spread the word on this film.
_________________ Ecks Factor: Cancelled too soon
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:32 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Here is the best comparison, I guess...
October 29-31 1999...
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =44&p=.htm
The drops weren't all that great for some movies...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:34 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm Posts: 6228
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How the hell does no one know about saw Micasey?!
Are you metal? it's one of the most hyped and critically acclaimed horrors of the year!
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:14 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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mansonmyers wrote: How the hell does no one know about saw Micasey?!
Are you metal? it's one of the most hyped and critically acclaimed horrors of the year!
I wish. Honestly, it's not the most hyped. The Grudge was definently more hyped than this is. People DO know about it, but it's not hyped like we all think. It's hyped on the internet, which makes a big difference. It will do good, because word is getting around. All my friends (who havent watched the pirated copy, hehe) are dying to see it.
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:24 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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1. The Grudge - $23 million (if it has a large decline, it will be the next weekend)
2. Saw - $15 million
3. Ray - $11 million
4. Shark Tale - $8 million
5. Shall We Dance? - $5.5 million
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.5 million
7. Team America: World Police - $4 million
8. Ladder 49 - $3.5 million
9. The Forgotten - $2.5 million (steady due to Halloween)
10. Birth - $2 million
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:44 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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Here are the daily numbers of the October 29 - 31 of 1999.
The Top Movies of Friday, October 29, 1999
1 House on Haunted Hill $5,420,000
2 Best Man, The $1,770,000
3 Double Jeopardy $1,650,000
4 American Beauty $1,175,000
5 Fight Club $1,155,000
6 Music of the Heart $1,115,000
7 Bringing Out The Dead $1,085,000
8 Story of Us, The $967,000
9 Sixth Sense, The $960,000
10 Three Kings $790,000
11 Three to Tango $750,000
12 Bats $650,000
13 Superstar $635,000
14 Random Hearts $425,000
15 Blue Streak $260,000
(source: thenumbers.com).
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see. and many more.
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 1:44 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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These are Saturdays (from the-numbers.com)
1 House on Haunted Hill $6,120,000 +12.92%
2 Best Man, The $2,820,000 +59.32%
3 Double Jeopardy $2,650,000 +60.61%
4 American Beauty $1,690,000 +43.83%
5 Music of the Heart $1,680,000 +50.67%
6 Bringing Out The Dead $1,500,000 +38.25%
7 Sixth Sense, The $1,495,000 +55.73%
8 Story of Us, The $1,340,000 +38.57%
9 Fight Club $1,230,000 +6.49%
10 Three Kings $1,170,000 +48.10%
11 Three to Tango $900,000 +20.00%
12 Bats $890,000 +36.92%
13 Superstar $875,000 +37.80%
14 Random Hearts $625,000 +47.06%
15 Blue Streak $390,000 +50.00%
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see. and many more.
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 1:46 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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And most important, here are Sundays (from the-numbers.com)
1 House on Haunted Hill $4,401,000 -28.09%
2 Best Man, The $1,618,000 -42.62%
3 Double Jeopardy $1,090,000 -58.87%
4 Music of the Heart $910,000 -45.83%
5 Fight Club $900,000 -26.83%
6 American Beauty $885,000 -47.63%
7 Bringing Out The Dead $864,000 -42.40%
8 Sixth Sense, The $709,000 -52.58%
9 Story of Us, The $663,000 -50.52%
10 Bats $581,000 -34.72%
11 Three Kings $580,000 -50.43%
12 Three to Tango $478,000 -46.89%
13 Omega Code, The $412,000 (N/A)
14 Superstar $364,000 -58.40%
15 Random Hearts $346,000 -44.64%
16 Blue Streak $231,000 -40.77%
Notice the small declines for Horror movies and harsh drops for Youth and Serious Adult movies.
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see. and many more.
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 1:50 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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House on the Haunted Hill managed a 2.91 multiplier despite bad reviews...this bodes really well for SAW.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:21 pm |
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snack
Extraordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:18 pm Posts: 12159
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Horrors Only:
The Grudge: 20.3
SAW: 11.7
Forgotten: 2.5
Surviving Christmas:2.4
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Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:21 pm |
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Optimus_Prime
Okay, I Believe You But My Tommy Gun Don't
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 7:34 pm Posts: 817
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I think last year, the weekend of Halloween is a better comparsion to 1999, when Halloween was on a Sunday. The reason why, is because the climate is the same as it was last year.
Surprise Big Hit-no one saw Scary Movie 3 almost making 50 mil, as no one saw the Grudge almost making 40 mil
The Next Weekend a Tentpole release is coming out- Last Year Revolutions (which was suppose to be good, but that is a different story) and this year the Incredibles.
In conclusion, I see the box office reacting the same way as it did last year, so I am going to say sub 30% for the top ten, except the Grudge.
_________________ "Do we look like the type of store that sells "I Just Called To Say I Loved You," go to the mall."
I HATE MICHAEL BAY
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Tue Oct 26, 2004 9:22 am |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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1. The Grudge - $20.7
2. Ray - $12.4
3. Saw - $9.0
4. Shark Tale - $8.0
5. Shall We Dance - $6.3
6. Friday Night Lights - $3.9
7. Ladder 49 - $3.7
8. Team America - $3.6
9. Surviving Christmas - $2.7
10. I Heart Huckabees - $2.3
11. Birth - $1.8
** Sideways - $0.467
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Wed Oct 27, 2004 5:04 pm |
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