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David Poland's Summer Predictions

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Snrub Vagina Qwertyuiop Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:14 pm Posts: 8767 Location: Great Living Standards	David Poland's Summer Predictions David Poland has his summer analysis up, and I thought it was interesting enough to get its own thread! Here's his first "20 Weeks of Summer" article: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists/poland/2005/050414.html# And here's his summer prediction table: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists/poland/2005/050414_chart.html David Poland wrote: 1. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (May 19) $415m The Mask VI 2. The War Of The Worlds (July 1) $320m Spielberg back in suburban form? 3. Madagascar (May 27) $265m Have you noticed... no other animation in sight? 4. Batman Begins (June 17) $235m Not too many girls going, but the boys will make up for it 5. The Longest Yard (May 27) $160m Sure to be ripped by critics, embraced by audiences 6. Cinderella Man (June 3) $120m The prestige of the summer... but looks commercial too 7. XXX2 (Apr 29) $115m The summer starts early this year... 8. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory (July 15) $110m It may kink its way out of bigger numbers... but could surprise and be way higher on chart. 9. Domino (Aug 19) $107m Tony Scott putting Keira Knightley through the bounty hunting paces 10. The Wedding Crashers (July 15) $105m The full-on comedy that actually deserves $100 million 11. Kicking & Screaming (May 13) $101m The full-on comedy that gets there based on opening first and Will Ferrell 12. The Bad News Bears (July 22) $100m The little smash that could 13. The Island (July 22) $90m "Lost" meets Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Sex meets The Mod Squad 14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (June 10) $89m Could go higher or lower, based on surprising quality or a bad reaction to real life drama 15. Kingdom Of Heaven (May 6) $87m A solid movie... hard to overcome recent sandaled history 16. Dark Water (July 8) $83m Salles The Scaremeister 17. Fantastic Four (July 8) $80m Four Dogs Playing Poker 18. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) (June 10) $78m Rodriguez starts a new franchise 19. Bewitched (Jun 24) $73m Will Ferrell will get it rolling, but it better be better than the trailer or it's "tinkle-tinkle-tink" down the drain 20. Stealth (July 29) $70m It should be loud enough to get a launch... bad enough to get forgotten 21. Herbie: Fully Loaded (Jun 24) $67m Disney isn't taking the Loh road in marketing... maybe the kids will prove them prescient 22. Monster In Law (May 13) $65m J-Fo Meets J-Lo, but is that such a b.f.d.? 23. Red Eye (Aug 12) $63m Rachel McAdams & The Scarecrow from Batman Begins in a high altitude thriller... could crash... could soar... 24. Rebound (July 1) $62m The title also describes what Martin Lawrence hopes this does for his non-Will career 25. G. Romero's Land Of The Dead (Jun 24) $59m How can you not love zombies? Universal did last spring and now they are going out in the heat 26. Aeon Flux (Aug 12) $58m If the report that this is pushing into August is true, that trailer better show up soon... 27. The Honeymooners (June 10) $56m One of my real dark horses of the summer... the trailer is goofy, but I think it kinda works 28. Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo (Aug 12) $53m He can do it! He can do it all summer! 29. Must Love Dogs (July 29) $51m Gary David Goldberg, John Cusack,.Diane Lane... the only straight forward romantic comedy of the summer 30. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy (Apr 29) $48m Even the cult will be challenged to offer a $20 million opening... 31. The 40 Year Old Virgin (Aug 19) $45m Spinning off of Will Ferrell... 32. The Perfect Man (Jun 17) $44m Chicks dig Hilary Duff 33. Lords of Dogtown (June 3) $43m Another sleeper... could just as easily fall short as pass 50 34. Sky High (July 29) $42m A silly Disney superhero comedy... the CEO wore tennis shoes... 35. The Dukes Of Hazard (August 5) $39m Just some good ol' boys... and Jess Simpson in shorts... 36. Skeleton Key (Aug 12) $38m A movie mystery... in every way 37. Hustle & Flow (July 15) $37.5m Sundance hero... Viacom's first big experiment in synergy... jobs are at stake... 38. Doom (Aug 5) $31m Not "dumb"... Doom! (Yah!) 39. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants (June 3) $30m Will the girls go? 40. The Cave (Aug 19) $29m It's gotta be better than Boogeyman! 41. House of Wax (May 6) $28m "What's that dripping sound?" "Oh, that's just Paris again." 42. Four Brothers (Aug 12) $26 Wahlberg in a Singleton summer drama... but it could become a quality cause 43. The Brothers Grimm (July 29) $23m There should be enough to look at to get it to almost cover P&A theatrically 44. The Pink Panther (Aug 12) $22.5m Da dumb, da dumb, da dumb da dumb da dumb... 45. Unleashed (May 13) $22m Jet Li with Oscar winner Morgan Freeman as his sidekick... if only they had a girl worth euthanizing 46. NIghtwatch (July 29) $18m The Russian import will challenge Searchlight to find import 47. Mindhunters (May 13) $14m The title also involves figuring out who greenlit this one 48. Mad Hot Ballroom (May 13) $13m A wonderful, joyous doc that should be thrilled to get here 49. Undead (July 1) $12m A long wait since Toronto 2003, but the trailer is a geek grabber 50. Zu Warriors (Aug 19) $8m One of Miramax's last chances to abuse Asian cinema under The Weinsteins I agree with some, less so with others. I don't think Domino is likely to break 100 million. Nor will Kicking & Screaming, xXx 2: State of the Union or Cinderella Man. I think his prediction for Revenge of the Sith is the least realistic. It's far too high a predick, unlike those for Fantastic Four, Kingdom of Heaven and Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - all of which I think will do (at least) 40 million more than he's saying. Others (Stealth, Bewitched, Mr and Mrs Smith, The Island) seem about dead on. Doom, Dukes of Hazzard and Monster In Law should be able to squeeze out a tad more than he predicts though. Last edited by Snrub on Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:30 pm

Maverikk Award Winning Bastard Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ	No wonder he won't link any of our box office analysis, he's too busy wanting those kinds of predictions. David, leave the predictions to the experts, buddy. Some of those are embarrassingly bad.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:42 pm

The Scottie King Albert! Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth	Actually, his predictions, in general, are much better than premeires, but Fantastic 4 is way too low. _________________ Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see. and many more.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:46 pm

Snrub Vagina Qwertyuiop Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:14 pm Posts: 8767 Location: Great Living Standards	He seems to vary from being quite realistic, to either drastically low-balling or high-balling. What kind of an opening would Fantastic Four have to have to get that small a total though? I guess his reasoning lies in its opening the week after ($320 million grosser) War or the Worlds.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:51 pm

Maverikk Award Winning Bastard Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ	Scott Vasquez wrote: Actually, his predictions, in general, are much better than premeires, but Fantastic 4 is way too low. I get the sense that he doesn't realize that these 3 movies... 1. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (May 19) $415m 3. Madagascar (May 27) $265m 5. The Longest Yard (May 27) $160m His top 5 grossers, will be opening at all once. He obviously isn't considering the competition between them all, and he is expecting the kind of legs that today's movie's just don't have. There is no way 3 of the top 5 movies this summer will be coming out between May 19th and May 27th.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:52 pm

Libs Sbil Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA	$107M for Domino? Um... I see that topping out under $45M.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:53 pm

dolcevita Extraordinary Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table	Re: David Polands Summer Predictions David Poland wrote: 1. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (May 19) $415m The Mask VI Looks wrong, I guess. Unless its gets horrific wom first weekend out it'll hit 350, bad wom= 310. 2. The War Of The Worlds (July 1) $320m Spielberg back in suburban form? Too High. Fantastic Four and Charlie come in the next two wweekends. People have already seen Sith and Batman. Cruise is sometimes annoying if he takes himself too seriously. I'd put it at 250 tops. Maybe even less 3. Madagascar (May 27) $265m Have you noticed... no other animation in sight? Howl's Moving castle :wink: Also, there isn't as much of it because the novelty is wearing off. traveling Pants and Shark Boy/Lava girl come out also the following consecutive weekends. Plenty of kid's fare in sight. 200-220. So this one is pretty close on. 4. Batman Begins (June 17) $235m Not too many girls going, but the boys will make up for it. Compared to Sith of World? Same people, only factor is boredom with franchise. This one seems a bit high again. Maybe 180-200. But nothing for competition until WofW and that's two weeks right there. WofW will kill its steam. 5. The Longest Yard (May 27) $160m Sure to be ripped by critics, embraced by audiences Too high. I look at Old School, Dodgeball, even all the other Sandler Movies. It'll have fans but not 160 worth of them. Will reach 100 million maybe, more likely 90. 6. Cinderella Man (June 3) $120m The prestige of the summer... but looks commercial too Haha. Nope, Cold Mountain couldn't even get there. No more boxing. This will struggle to 70 imo. 7. XXX2 (Apr 29) $115m The summer starts early this year...Yeah, maybe 100 million. It comes out when Hitchhikers does. This guy has it beating out Hitchhikers, i see otherwise. The first one only made 100 million didn't it? I think this one will make 70 then. like BadBoys II, etc. 8. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory (July 15) $110m It may kink its way out of bigger numbers... but could surprise and be way higher on chart.Could surprise. This one is so hard to predict. I can't disagree with 110. But Burton could make it a bit too cultish, and then it'll struggle, but will be more memorable. Have long rental and purchase future. 9. Domino (Aug 19) $107m Tony Scott putting Keira Knightley through the bounty hunting pacesUh, never heard of it. 10. The Wedding Crashers (July 15) $105m The full-on comedy that actually deserves $100 millionYep, that's what i have it at. I think it'll outperform longest Yard that will only come in at 90, but it might be me dreaming. 11. Kicking & Screaming (May 13) $101m The full-on comedy that gets there based on opening first and Will FerrellHave no idea about predicting this 12. The Bad News Bears (July 22) $100m The little smash that couldYes, everyone loved the first one, or at least, I did. This'll work well, family movie. 100 million sounds right. 13. The Island (July 22) $90m "Lost" meets Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Sex meets The Mod Squad ? 14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (June 10) $89m Could go higher or lower, based on surprising quality or a bad reaction to real life drama This one will break 100. Saw the trailer, looks very good. Might suffer with Batman one week later, but then nothing until waroftheworlds. Eh. Now that i think about it, might get a bit dwarfed. 89 might be right. damn 15. Kingdom Of Heaven (May 6) $87m A solid movie... hard to overcome recent sandaled historyYes. It won't reach 100 17. Fantastic Four (July 8) $80m Four Dogs Playing Poker Don't know much about it. Superhero hype dies down, this prediction seems solid to me 18. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) (June 10) $78m Rodriguez starts a new franchise He's good with the kids. His first two spy kids movies broke 100 million right? And the third one didn't do shabby either. This looks right, could go higher. 25. G. Romero's Land Of The Dead (Jun 24) $59m How can you not love zombies? Universal did last spring and now they are going out in the heat Will go higher. Don't know why, He is a big name in horror. Much bigger than Anderson or any of the new guys. People have been waiting for this. Fanboys and girls will come out of nowhere and lift it to near 85 30. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy (Apr 29) $48m Even the cult will be challenged to offer a $20 million opening...Whaaaaaaaaaa? I think it'll get a 28 million opened and pique non-cult people to go watch it. This is tooo low. I give it near 75 id it gets a 28 opener. 90 if it has a 30 million opener and strong wom. couldn't predict the other ones listed
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:54 pm

Spidey Teenage Dream Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm Posts: 10678	This guy overpredicted some movies like Domino and underpredicted some movies like Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:58 pm

Goldie Forum General Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm Posts: 7286 Location: TOPSECRET ***************** **************** **************** ******************	On the bottom of the chart - will these 2 do that bad. 41. House of Wax (May 6) $28m "What's that dripping sound?" "Oh, that's just Paris again." 45. Unleashed (May 13) $22m Jet Li with Oscar winner Morgan Freeman as his sidekick... if only they had a girl worth euthanizing
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:40 pm

Goldie Forum General Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm Posts: 7286 Location: TOPSECRET ***************** **************** **************** ******************	Re: David Polands Summer Predictions From the top ones - I think you are wrong on a couple. I like his #'s better. dolcevita wrote: David Poland wrote: 1. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (May 19) $415m The Mask VI Looks wrong, I guess. Unless its gets horrific wom first weekend out it'll hit 350, bad wom= 310. 2. The War Of The Worlds (July 1) $320m - just because of Spielberg / Cruise Spielberg back in suburban form? Too High. Fantastic Four and Charlie come in the next two wweekends. People have already seen Sith and Batman. Cruise is sometimes annoying if he takes himself too seriously. I'd put it at 250 tops. Maybe even less 3. Madagascar (May 27) $265m Have you noticed... no other animation in sight? Howl's Moving castle :wink: Also, there isn't as much of it because the novelty is wearing off. traveling Pants and Shark Boy/Lava girl come out also the following consecutive weekends. Plenty of kid's fare in sight. 200-220. So this one is pretty close on. 4. Batman Begins (June 17) $235m Not too many girls going, but the boys will make up for it. Compared to Sith of World? Same people, only factor is boredom with franchise. This one seems a bit high again. Maybe 180-200. But nothing for competition until WofW and that's two weeks right there. WofW will kill its steam. 5. The Longest Yard (May 27) $160m - Sandler, Rock plus Reynolds will help Sure to be ripped by critics, embraced by audiences Too high. I look at Old School, Dodgeball, even all the other Sandler Movies. It'll have fans but not 160 worth of them. Will reach 100 million maybe, more likely 90. 6. Cinderella Man (June 3) $120m - Think Cold Mountain is a bad comparision to bring up. The prestige of the summer... but looks commercial too Haha. Nope, Cold Mountain couldn't even get there. No more boxing. This will struggle to 70 imo. 7. XXX2 (Apr 29) $115m The summer starts early this year...Yeah, maybe 100 million. It comes out when Hitchhikers does. This guy has it beating out Hitchhikers, i see otherwise. The first one only made 100 million didn't it? I think this one will make 70 then. like BadBoys II, etc. 8. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory (July 15) $110m It may kink its way out of bigger numbers... but could surprise and be way higher on chart.Could surprise. This one is so hard to predict. I can't disagree with 110. But Burton could make it a bit too cultish, and then it'll struggle, but will be more memorable. Have long rental and purchase future. 9. Domino (Aug 19) $107m Tony Scott putting Keira Knightley through the bounty hunting pacesUh, never heard of it. 10. The Wedding Crashers (July 15) $105m The full-on comedy that actually deserves $100 millionYep, that's what i have it at. I think it'll outperform longest Yard that will only come in at 90, but it might be me dreaming. 11. Kicking & Screaming (May 13) $101m The full-on comedy that gets there based on opening first and Will FerrellHave no idea about predicting this 12. The Bad News Bears (July 22) $100m The little smash that couldYes, everyone loved the first one, or at least, I did. This'll work well, family movie. 100 million sounds right. 13. The Island (July 22) $90m "Lost" meets Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Sex meets The Mod Squad ? 14. Mr. and Mrs. Smith (June 10) $89m Could go higher or lower, based on surprising quality or a bad reaction to real life drama This one will break 100. Saw the trailer, looks very good. Might suffer with Batman one week later, but then nothing until waroftheworlds. Eh. Now that i think about it, might get a bit dwarfed. 89 might be right. damn 15. Kingdom Of Heaven (May 6) $87m A solid movie... hard to overcome recent sandaled historyYes. It won't reach 100 17. Fantastic Four (July 8) $80m Four Dogs Playing Poker Don't know much about it. Superhero hype dies down, this prediction seems solid to me 18. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) (June 10) $78m Rodriguez starts a new franchise He's good with the kids. His first two spy kids movies broke 100 million right? And the third one didn't do shabby either. This looks right, could go higher. 25. G. Romero's Land Of The Dead (Jun 24) $59m How can you not love zombies? Universal did last spring and now they are going out in the heat Will go higher. Don't know why, He is a big name in horror. Much bigger than Anderson or any of the new guys. People have been waiting for this. Fanboys and girls will come out of nowhere and lift it to near 85 30. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy (Apr 29) $48m Even the cult will be challenged to offer a $20 million opening...Whaaaaaaaaaa? I think it'll get a 28 million opened and pique non-cult people to go watch it. This is tooo low. I give it near 75 id it gets a 28 opener. 90 if it has a 30 million opener and strong wom. couldn't predict the other ones listed
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:46 pm

thompsoncory Rachel McAdams Fan Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:13 am Posts: 14605 Location: LA / NYC	HOUSE OF WAX, MONSTER-IN-LAW and FANTASTIC FOUR will do better. BEWITCHED will as well. He's overpredicting DOMINO.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:47 pm

jb007 Veteran Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm Posts: 3917 Location: Las Vegas	dolce, leave DP's 1 & 2 alone. They look fine. _________________ Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006 The Greatest Actor Ever. Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:51 pm

dolcevita Extraordinary Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table	jb007 wrote: dolce, leave DP's 1 & 2 alone. They look fine. You should be happy I fiddled with those numbers. I have a rich reputation for being as far off on numbers as Columbus was from the Indies. Had i said they looked good, they wouldn't have broken 300 and 200 respectively. But since I said 350, I'm pretty sure Sith will break 500, and my 250 for War will bring in an easy 400.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:53 pm

jb007 Veteran Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm Posts: 3917 Location: Las Vegas	dolcevita wrote: You should be happy I fiddled with those numbers. I have a rich reputation for being as far off on numbers as Columbus was from the Indies. Had i said they looked good, they wouldn't have broken 300 and 200 respectively. But since I said 350, I'm pretty sure Sith will break 500, and my 250 for War will bring in an easy 400. :Kiss: _________________ Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006 The Greatest Actor Ever. Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:58 pm

Snrub Vagina Qwertyuiop Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:14 pm Posts: 8767 Location: Great Living Standards	Re: David Polands Summer Predictions dolcevita wrote: 1. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (May 19) $415m The Mask VI Looks wrong, I guess. Unless its gets horrific wom first weekend out it'll hit 350, bad wom= 310. Attack of the Clones didn't get horrific wom, it barely scraped past 310. dolcevita wrote: 2. The War Of The Worlds (July 1) $320m Spielberg back in suburban form? Too High. Fantastic Four and Charlie come in the next two wweekends. People have already seen Sith and Batman. Cruise is sometimes annoying if he takes himself too seriously. I'd put it at 250 tops. Maybe even less Agreed! I see this coming in at Saving Private Ryan-esque numbers. dolcevita wrote: 3. Madagascar (May 27) $265m Have you noticed... no other animation in sight? Howl's Moving castle :wink: Also, there isn't as much of it because the novelty is wearing off. traveling Pants and Shark Boy/Lava girl come out also the following consecutive weekends. Plenty of kid's fare in sight. 200-220. So this one is pretty close on. I'm inclined to agree with Mav on this. Three of the top five summer earners in two weeks? It's more likely that Madagascar and The Longest Yard will come out fairly equal (a la Minority Report and Lilo And Stitch). Then again, who knows what'll happen? dolcevita wrote: 5. The Longest Yard (May 27) $160m Sure to be ripped by critics, embraced by audiences Too high. I look at Old School, Dodgeball, even all the other Sandler Movies. It'll have fans but not 160 worth of them. Will reach 100 million maybe, more likely 90. It'll do at least Mr Deeds numbers. I think. dolcevita wrote: 8. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory (July 15) $110m It may kink its way out of bigger numbers... but could surprise and be way higher on chart.Could surprise. This one is so hard to predict. I can't disagree with 110. But Burton could make it a bit too cultish, and then it'll struggle, but will be more memorable. Have long rental and purchase future. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be the biggest movie of the summer, nay, all time. dolcevita wrote: 15. Kingdom Of Heaven (May 6) $87m A solid movie... hard to overcome recent sandaled historyYes. It won't reach 100 Bah! It'll make 100 easily! Maybe! dolcevita wrote: 17. Fantastic Four (July 8) $80m Four Dogs Playing Poker Don't know much about it. Superhero hype dies down, this prediction seems solid to me I can't see it myself, but crazier things have happened. I think it's more likely to top out at Hulk-style numbers (except with a better multiplier), but I'll probably be wrong!
Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:07 pm

A. G. Draughty Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347	I just don't get all the expectations of a hit for Batman Begins. 235 is way too high for that one. Just putting "Begins" in the title won't magically make people forget about the previous ones.
Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:22 pm

DP07 The Thirteenth Floor Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15497 Location: Everywhere	Re: David Polands Summer Predictions dolcevita wrote: David Poland wrote: 7. XXX2 (Apr 29) $115m The summer starts early this year...Yeah, maybe 100 million. It comes out when Hitchhikers does. This guy has it beating out Hitchhikers, i see otherwise. The first one only made 100 million didn't it? I think this one will make 70 then. like BadBoys II, etc. First one got about 144m. Bad Boys II got about 138m. I don't think it will match either of those, but it shouldn't be too far behind. I agree with something around 115m. That's actually one of the few I agree with. Domino, ROTS, and WOTW are way too high IMO. Stealth, The Island and Kingdom of Heaven are way too low.
Mon Apr 18, 2005 10:48 am

Snrub Vagina Qwertyuiop Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:14 pm Posts: 8767 Location: Great Living Standards	Poland's updated his list, revising films yet to come and those already out of the gate. http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists/poland/2005/050512_chart.html
Fri May 13, 2005 11:47 am
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David Poland's Summer Predictions

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