http://www.worldofkj.com/Wrapup-7.php

Dare I say it for I am likely to be wrong, But I think he went slightly to high with Sahara.

We'll have a better idea of if he's wrong after today's numbers for Sahara come out. The estimates were way low on it. I hope Fever Pitch catches a wave and grosses more.

Any luck on coming up with a name, DP07?

Nope, not yet Mav.

So, anyone else agree/disagree? :wink:

Looks good to me, I could see Sahara doing even better potentially. I think that the WOM is actually really damn strong, but we'll see.

I hope so. I'm not sure WOM is great for Sahara, it had more plot holes then anything I've seen in a while, but it's not horrid either. The audiences was laughing at all the right points, and it seems like the type of movie that most will find to be fun.

I wouldn't be shocked if the multiplier is as strong as Hidalgo's.

Hidalgo I actually heard some mixed comments coming out of it to an extent, but mostly good stuff. It also had way more movies opening the weekends after then Sahara, which doesn't really have any big competition besides xXx 2 until May 19th. I made a table showing how much better action movies with lots of humor do as far as legs go, and I don't think this will be any exception, especially thanks to the huge amount of cross demographic appeal.

No way.

The movie is going to drop like a damn stone! A big stone I say!

2.8-3.1

I entirely agree that humor tends to increase legs, and yeah, you are probably right this should help the film. You know Eagle, now that I think about it, I think I more likely then not went too low on the legs for the reasons MovieDude lists. :wink:

BTW, large stones drop just as quickly as small stones. :razz:

actually they don't. What you're refering to can only happen in ideal conditions. In real life, a larger stone and a smaller stone do not actually fall as quickly.

What do you mean? Why? You mean slight differences in air resistance?

BJ highly disagrees with the Sin City analysis, it will make over 100m :mrgreen:

It's going to need some 25%-30% drops from here on out to do that. :wink:

na, that would get it to around 120m it only needs an average 35% drop to get to 100m from here on

Um....About 18.5m for the week bringing it to 55m. 35% drop is 2.857 weekly multiplier (100/35) from this point on, or 1.857 with current week subtracted. So, 34.36m (1.857*18.5). Add in the 55m and you get 89.36m. It needs 29.13% drops at this rate (100/((45/18.5)+1)).

You can add in holidays, but there's really nothing until May.

awg, BJ has been struck down by the facts But he still hopes that Sin City will find a way

I always love your optimism BJ. :wink:

Not much to say, David, other than I agree on most (which is unique in the case of two of us, heh) and think it's very well-written.

I would just go a bit higher on Sin City considering that this was probably the biggest drop in ints primary run last weekend and the drops will get much better soon, so it'll push the movie past $80 million. I'd also go a tad bit lower on Sahara (around $57 million) Everything else seems completely fine.

Thanks.

Based on my calculations, Sin City would need to average drops of 44.6% to reach 78m. I think that makes sense based on Kill Bill Vol. 1. It had that great first drop, but after that it generally dropped worse. I think that indicates that the better the first drop, the more likely that drop was an anomoly, and the less room for improvement. Kill Bill 1 dropped nearly 50% in the third week, and I don't see Sin City doing much better then that.

Then again, Kill Bill Vol. 1's 2nd weekend drop was quite a bit better than Sin City's drop, I think, so that logic might not work there. Besides that, it had a big drop in its third weekend against the heavily-promoted and teen-oriented The Texas Chainsaw Massacre. You may say the same about The Amityville Horror, but I think that people are more flocking to see horror in October than in April, so I don't see such a big hit there. I see it making around $8.8 million whis weekend for a drop of around 38%