http://www.worldofkj.com/Prediction-6.php

Discuss

BTW, here are the predictions

Fever Pitch - 22.4m
Sahara - 14.6m
Sin City - 13.1m (-55%)
Guess Who - 7.6m (-40%)
Beauty Shop - 7.0m (-45%)
Robots - 5.7m (-42%)
Miss Congeniality - 4.5m (-45%)
Pacifier - 3.7m (-36%)
Upside of Anger - 2.6m (-35%)
Ring 2 - 2.6 (-54%)

Top Ten Cume - 83.8m

What do you think, good predictions, or am I crazy?

I disagree on the openers, but the rest seems perfectly fine. I see Fever Pitch doing a bit worse and Sahara a bit better.

woah Scott. You went low on the Sahara one ... wow.

Ooh, we have similar predictions. But I went a bit lower on Fever Pitch, and just a little bit higher on Sahara.

I have Sahara at 19 and Fever Pitch at 18. Pre-Friday tracking seems to indicate Sahara should come out ahead.

I think Beauty Shop will drop higher than most people predicted. Its weekday numbers have been weak, and I don't see it having much better Friday increase and weekend multiplier than Johnson Family Vacation's second week.

The other ones look fine.

I have Sahara at 10 million, with Fever Pitch tying Sin City at 13 million :-$

I went really low on Sahara compared to Scott and all the other big predictors.

Me too, I have Fever Pitch at a bit under $18M and Sahara a bit over $14M.

About the same for me, but around $13 million-ish for Sahara. I just don't see how that can do over $15 million.

I went with over 22m on Sahara and about 16m on Fever Pitch.

I think Johnson's Family's second week is the wrong comparision. That was the weekend after Easter. This week be the second weekend after Easter. If you were to compare it to JFV's third week (228% Friday increase and 90% Sat. increase) it would get over 8m. :wink: I don't quite think it will do that though.

I don't think that argument holds. The deeper you go into April, the bigger the Thursday-to-Friday increase, so I still believe the second weekend of JFV is the best comparison, especially when their opening Thursday-to-Friday increases are similar. Where Easter falls doesn't really matter in the case. The date is more important.

Brandon's predictions are in.

He predicts a close race between Sahara and Fever Pitch for the weekend, but both under $17M.

Think it is the date of Easter that matters. Each year the weekday numbers are higher around easter, both before and after it. I think that's more then anything that determines when spring break is. Look at this year. Robots, the Pacifier and Ice Princess are all way down from their weekdays last week. When easter was later, like 2003 or 2004, that was not the case for the family films for the first week of April. The date matters a bit, but I think it's mostly when Easter is situated. Look at previous years, it's always the week before easter and week after that have the highest weekdays in the spring.

Look at 2003:
Agent Cody Banks
Piglet's Big Movie

Both had great Weekday numbers on April 14-17 (before easter) and April 21-24 (after easter). These weekday numbers were much stronger relative to the weekends then earlier in their runs in March. The weekday numbers then dropped off after the 27th. So, Spring Break was in mid to late April unlike most years, because Easter was so late.

Could be. We'll see.

I wouldn't think Fever Pitch would open higher than Guess Who, but you never know.

However, you have to keep in mind that Johnson Family Vacation is a family movie with usually great Friday increases, so Beauty Shop would do worse in comparison which would equal out the Easter effect. I am with xiayun, thinking it won't make much more than $6.3-6.4 million over the weekend.

Well, unless Beauty Shop has a really big Saturday increase, it doesn't look like it will reach my prediction for 7m. :wink:

Seems like you did pretty well on the holdovers, Scott, but not so on the openers Anyway, I overpredicted Fever Pitch big time myself, so...

Scott V's score with Actuals:

Sahara - (14.6 / 18.1) -- Accuracy: 80.66%
Sin City - (13.1 / 14.2) -- Accuracy: 92.25%
Fever Pitch - (22.4 / 12.4) -- Accuracy: 19.35%
Guess Who - (7.6 / 7) -- Accuracy: 91.43%
Beauty Shop - (7.0 / 6.8) -- Accuracy: 97.06%
Robots - (5.7 / 4.7) -- Accuracy: 78.72%
Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous - (4.5 / 4.2) -- Accuracy: 92.86%
The Pacifier - (3.7 / 3.1) -- Accuracy: 80.65%
The Ring Two - (2.6 / 2.9) -- Accuracy: 89.66%
The Upside of Anger - (2.6 / 2.5) -- Accuracy: 96.00%

OVERALL ACTUAL ACCURACY: 81.86%

New Release: 50.01%
Still in Theater: 89.83%

Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've loss a 0.77% in your average.