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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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 Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Michael A wrote: What I don't get is why people are projecting such a slight sunday drop. HP7.1 and New Moon, the only movies that really seem somewhat comparable, each dropped about 35% on sunday, why would this only drop 10%? New Moon and HP 7.1 both came out in November so naturally they are going to have larger Sunday drops because of the younger demos going to school the next day. Now you have summer days and usually blockbuster openings like this have small Sunday drops.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:33 pm |
 
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Bradley Witherberry
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 15197
Location: Planet Xatar
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Magnus wrote: Wow. I thought for sure it would be over 55% cause people wouldn't have options with the soldout shows.
My mind is even more blown. Fucking insane. No Magnus, this is actually a return to sanity - - the past couple years have been the temporary insanity of the 3D fad raising it's ugly head.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:38 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Magnus wrote: Wow. I thought for sure it would be over 55% cause people wouldn't have options with the soldout shows.
My mind is even more blown. Fucking insane. Makes the 190 million TDKR club even more probable now.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:42 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25020
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) excellent friday.
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:42 pm |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 9998
Location: Australia
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Bluebomb wrote: jmovies wrote: This makes the number more impressive. Quote: #Potter fans choosing 2D over 3D conversion. Only about 43% of HP8 FRI gross came from 3D screens.   39.603m - 3D; 51.397m - 2D. That's one of the weakest out of the major blockbuster releases. Is this the end of 3D?   I fear for the movies released next year in 3D like The Hobbit
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What I've been living for
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:46 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) What happened to Super 8??? It got hit tremendously hard and Potter hasn't always affected increases in the past.
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Making Predictions Great Again!
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:50 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) 3D will live on in the form of IMAX but RealD looks to be coming to an end unless drastic steps are taken.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:50 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) BOM: 1 HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 92.1 92.1 (new) 2 TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON 6.3 287.9 (-57%) 3 HORRIBLE BOSSES 5.5 47.8 (-45%) 4 ZOOKEEPER 3.9 33.9 (-47%) 5 WINNIE THE POOH 2.9 2.9 (new) 6 CARS 2 2.4 159.4 (-50%) 7 BAD TEACHER 1.6 84.9 (-47%) 8 LARRY CROWNE 0.80 29.9 (-59%) 9 SUPER 8 0.54 120.9 (-65%) 10 BRIDESMAIDS 0.51 160.1 (-41%) 11 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS 0.50 40.4 (-38%) 12 MONTE CARLO 0.42 19.2 (-72%) 13 MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS 0.40 60.5 (-65%) 14 GREEN LANTERN 0.37 111.8 (-62%) http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?s ... -15&p=.htm
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:25 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Magnus wrote: The low share in 3D makes me think that both TDKR and the final Twilight have chances for a 100m+ OW. Not saying they are locks to do it, but it's possible. I'd say they're definite locks for 100m+ OW. _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:42 pm |
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ShawnMR
Angels & Demons
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:35 pm
Posts: 274
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Its so much easier to follow the conversations here than on BOM right now.  Anywho, did some rough extrapolations for the weekend based on the performance of past Potters and The Dark Knight itself. My gut hasn't failed me yet on this film, but I'm hopefully I'm staying conservative still. BOT Saturday Update, Ticket Sales Comparison, & Weekend Projection
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:46 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) ShawnMR wrote: Its so much easier to follow the conversations here than on BOM right now. That place must be a nightmare right now.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:59 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Saturday afternoon sellouts seem to be at a solid number. Maybe it won't drop too much today minus midnights.
If it increased from the number minus midnights, BOM would explode and be harder to navigate.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:00 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) BD1 probably won't even pass $70M OD I think. Maybe $85-90M for BD2.
Really Dark Knight is the only film I see until Avatar 2 with any chance at $100M OD.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:24 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Magnus wrote: trixster wrote: Magnus wrote: The low share in 3D makes me think that both TDKR and the final Twilight have chances for a 100m+ OW. Not saying they are locks to do it, but it's possible. I'd say they're definite locks for 100m+ OW. Meant OD. My typos are even worse when using an iPhone (whch I've done all week). Droid does
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:26 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) I'm curious about Breaking Dawn, since it's a book that even the fanbase seems to despise. I don't think it has a chance at 100+ opening day, though. Twilight sort of defined rush factor with its sequels; I can't fathom where it's going to find a couple million new girls to show up opening day.
I'd like to congratulate Green Lantern on only dropping 2% from Thursday when another Warner Bros. behemoth roared into the marketplace.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:27 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm
Posts: 5322
Location: The Interstice
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) So the first Potter breaks the OW record and the last beats it, and the last beats the amount of the first in one day.
How awesome is that!!
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:34 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23762
Location: Classified
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) The Dark Shape wrote: I'm curious about Breaking Dawn, since it's a book that even the fanbase seems to despise. I don't think it has a chance at 100+ opening day, though. Twilight sort of defined rush factor with its sequels; I can't fathom where it's going to find a couple million new girls to show up opening day.
I'd bet under half of Twilight's fanbase has actually read all the books, and they will see it anyways. I'm wondering who will next land in the $75-90M range. We seemed to have skipped over that. Much like Potter 1 jumping from Lost World's 72 to its own 90+.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:37 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Flava'd vs The World wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: I'm curious about Breaking Dawn, since it's a book that even the fanbase seems to despise. I don't think it has a chance at 100+ opening day, though. Twilight sort of defined rush factor with its sequels; I can't fathom where it's going to find a couple million new girls to show up opening day.
I'd bet under half of Twilight's fanbase has actually read all the books, and they will see it anyways.. Oh, I know. (I don't think that's terribly far-off for Potter, either; I'm sure a giant chunk of the audience is comprised of book virgins.) Twilight just explodes so quickly and became uber-front loaded so quickly that it seems more difficult to me to manage all the new rushers in order to get it past that number.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:43 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32098
Location: the last free city
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Proud Ryu wrote: So the first Potter breaks the OW record and the last beats it, and the last beats the amount of the first in one day.
How awesome is that!! It was destiny! 
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:43 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23762
Location: Classified
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) The Dark Shape wrote: Flava'd vs The World wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: I'm curious about Breaking Dawn, since it's a book that even the fanbase seems to despise. I don't think it has a chance at 100+ opening day, though. Twilight sort of defined rush factor with its sequels; I can't fathom where it's going to find a couple million new girls to show up opening day.
I'd bet under half of Twilight's fanbase has actually read all the books, and they will see it anyways.. Oh, I know. (I don't think that's terribly far-off for Potter, either; I'm sure a giant chunk of the audience is comprised of book virgins.) Twilight just explodes so quickly and became uber-front loaded so quickly that it seems more difficult to me to manage all the new rushers in order to get it past that number. But there are girls entering their teen years every day, filled with lust for beautiful, sensitive vampires and werewolves.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:52 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Flava'd vs The World wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: Flava'd vs The World wrote: The Dark Shape wrote: I'm curious about Breaking Dawn, since it's a book that even the fanbase seems to despise. I don't think it has a chance at 100+ opening day, though. Twilight sort of defined rush factor with its sequels; I can't fathom where it's going to find a couple million new girls to show up opening day.
I'd bet under half of Twilight's fanbase has actually read all the books, and they will see it anyways.. Oh, I know. (I don't think that's terribly far-off for Potter, either; I'm sure a giant chunk of the audience is comprised of book virgins.) Twilight just explodes so quickly and became uber-front loaded so quickly that it seems more difficult to me to manage all the new rushers in order to get it past that number. But there are girls entering their teen years every day, filled with lust for beautiful, sensitive vampires and werewolves. But the other teen girls are getting older, getting laid, getting pregnant, having drug addictions that take all available funds so that they cannot attend opening day. At least I hope so. 
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 2:59 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 6138
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Box Office Early Weekend Estimates Archangel wrote: Hmm, if $92.1m is indeed the first material estimate for OD then it must've slowed down a tad through the night (compared to The Dark Knight). Early extrapolations based on TDK would've given it a $100m+ OD.
This is still monstrous and raises the OD record by $20m, unprecedented. A shame it didn't hit the magic $100m in 1-Day, that would've given it an even more special accolade.
Looks like anywhere between $170m-$180m is in the cards. Who would've thought, the majority of the predictions was languishing in the $145-155m range whreas the most daring only went up to something like $165m. I predicted 170m OW....it was obvious this was going to smash everything.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:02 pm |
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devon28flick
SO FETCH!
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:35 pm
Posts: 309
Location: Sunnyside Daycare
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) I THINK TWILIGHT BREAKING DAWN WILL HAVE A 77-81 OPENING DAY AND END WITH SUMTHING CLOSE TO 290-310 AND PART 2 WILL OPEN WITH 89-95 AND END WITH 310-325
GO TWILIGHT SAGA
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:03 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23762
Location: Classified
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Touche. I forgot about the whores and junkies that will be too poor to see Twilight.  But keep in mind that the world is going to end the next month. That will definitely make it even more frontloaded than usual. Even the hookers will want the see the love of their life before Planet X crashes into us.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:04 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Re: Friday Numbers ($92.1m) Dammit, how did I not consider that? Hookers will require their gentlemen lovers to take them to Breaking Dawn before making with the sex.
Fine, fine. I predict Breaking Dawn Part 2 will make $147 million opening day.
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| Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:08 pm |
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