There are many reasons for this, so I'll illustrate a few of them.

1) It seems that fourth films after decisive third films don't seem to do all that well. Look at Shrek 4. It opened terribly, EVEN WITH 3-D. Shrek 3 really wasn't that well liked and it suffered during the fourth. Scream 4, while a bit different, also suffered the same fate.

2) The trailier, imo, is awful. It doesn't reall have much of the same zest and fun feel of the first three. I don't see how this is going to get fans or casual movie goers really that interested.

3) Bruckheimer's instincts seem to be really off lately. The Scorcerers's Apprentice, Prince of Persia, G-Force, Confessions of a Shopaholic, in fact, you have to go back to National Treasure Book of Secrets to really find his last theatrical hit.

4) Timing for this seems off, really off. I think if they would have waited maybe another ten years, it would have been better, but it's only been 4 years since the last one.

5) Finally, taking out 2/3's of your star cast and characters that people identify with, imo, is silly and suicidal. I know Sparrow is the main cog of the film, but taking out Elizabeth and Will and replacing them with Penelope Cruz just doesn't seem right. Plus Verbinski is no longer here and he is replaced by the guy who did Chicago. YECCH!.

Making this an under 100 mill OW club would be too easy, I think it falls much more than that.

OW: 85
Domestic: 230
International: 550
Total: 780

What say you?

in...

So torn about this. It will definitely lose audience from the 3rd and I think it will be less frontloaded than AWE. The 3D premium didn't do much for Shrek 4 as well. The marketing has been so underwhelming, seems like they've dropped the ball with this one. I thought it could do 350M before the first trailer.

In. 88M/250M

In. It looks very underwhelming.

10 years? By then, Depp would have looked like Geoffrey Rush. You simply can't wait that long with a franchise like this without rebooting it.

I think AiW proved that in the right type of movie, Depp is still a huge star with drawing power. I think this can still pull 100M OW.

Out like your stomach baumer.

Though I love the Pirates franchise, I want to make some outlandish below Shrek Forever After call, but I think I'll hold off because I'd rather root for it than against it.

In, does remind me very much of Shrek 4, which was also in 3D.

Copy cat!

In, obviously.

Shrek just didn't have enough left in the tank to overcome Justin Timberlake in the 3rd movie.

The main criticism with the 3rd Pirates movie amongst fans was not enough Jack Sparrow. Didn't it take something like 40 minutes into the movie until his nose finally showed up? Now that we’ve cast off Will and Elizabeth, who’s story arc, imo, had stalled, fans will be willing to come back and see Depp.

I just don't see how this has anything remotely interesting about it. Obviously if it opens to 80 mill or so it means people still care, but I just don't think there's that much left in the tank.

Out 100m.

It has Johnny Depp, that's all that matters.

I think it does matter. He's not enough to give it that much of a boost.

Really?

You think if you plugged in any other actor in AiW, it would have still opened that huge?

It's not like Depp and Jolie made Tourist perform better than Knight & Day or even more less star-powered Killers. Whether he film itself interests people still matters.

Lazy marketing, no Will/Elizabeth, trilogy was already wrapped, general franchise fatigue...

Johnny Depp is a popular family actor. I can see why his role in The Tourist didn't matter in the states. I didn't see it in theaters and I'm a big fan of his, but I'll have tickets for Pirates as soon as they're available.

Not sure about this club. 50/50.

It's not a boost. It's still a drop from from At World's End.

Not really. People have come to like / expect them. Johnny Depp is the main attraction, but that doesn't mean people didn't like the supporting characters. Definitely not a positive from a box office perspective.

Meh, people don't really care about Will/Elizabeth.

Come on, you really think anyone gives a rat's ass about Orlando Bloom being in the film or not?

Yes.

I think it will do about 100.

Shrek 3 was horrible, worse-received than Pirates 3 by far. Shrek 4 looked and felt almost like a dvd add-on to the franchise except for the main voice actors and 3d. Plus, some of the youth audience outgrew it and it did not remain relevant, where Pirates skews older and will not suffer as much.

I believe the loss of the other 2 characters is a non-issue when you've got Blackbeard, who everyone has wanted to see since the first movie, Penelope, and a more exciting quest than previously. Depp has not lost any relevancy - Tourist just was not remotely a good character for him and was really a Jolie film.

The title sucks though unfortunately - it is the worst of the series, making it sound like more a soap opera than a swashbuckler. Why the hell they not just call it POTC: The Fountain of Youth is beyond me.

By the third film, their storyline was stupid. Seriously, Elizabeth becoming a pirate lord? Come the fuck on.

How does this have more of a fanbase that Shrek? In the US, they did eerily similar numbers, in fact, I think Shrek 1-3 grossed more than POTC 1-3. So that dog don't hunt.

OUT, it will make at least 105m+ Opening Weekend, the franchise is not that hated like many of you suggest