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HK 5/11 THU: GOTG 3 holds at #1 on a quiet week https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=58584 |
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Author: | JustLurking [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:28 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/16 FRI: Avatar 2 poised for breakout after big wal |
Hey, thanks for tracking this! Much appreciated. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:26 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/14 PROJ: Which naughty or nice theater chain are y | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JustLurking wrote: Hey, thanks for tracking this! Much appreciated. Saturday admissions: about 65,000 admissions (25,000-30,000 walk-ins for the entire day) I'm sure people are wondering what the title means. Well, Avatar 2 had some amazing showings and terrible ones as well. Here I thought tracking Star Wars: The Force Awakens was confusing. Avatar 2 was even more confusing to track than that film. Nice list MCL - Amazing showings here. New Town Plaza had at least 4 afternoon/night showings that sold over 150 tickets each. Festival Walk, Hollywood, K11 recorded showings with over 100 admissions. Festival Walk had one showing that sold 189 tickets. Rural theaters like Cyberport and Citygate had showings close to 100 admissions. Cheung Sha Wan was pretty full the entire day. Emperor - Good to very good showings overall. Times Square recorded at least 1 showing over 150 admissions. Tsuen Wan had at least 2 showings over 100 admissions. Despite having a screen with IMAX, iSquare performed well with showings close to 100 admissions. LOHAS, Tuen Mun and Ma On Shan saw showings about 60-75% full almost the entire day. Naughty list Broadway - Terrible showings at almost all theaters aside from a couple of standout showings. Cityplaza and The GRAND saw showings over 100 admissions, however, other Avatar 2 showings at these theaters were quite empty with about 25-30 admissions sold. Something to note is that both Cityplaza and The GRAND's showings were ATMOS showings. One of the worst showings was at b+ APM with just 26 tickets sold for a mid afternoon showing in a 142 seater (18% sold). For the whole day, APM only sold 563 3D admissions on 11 showings (Average admissions per showing - 51). That's bad for a high traffic theater. Even HK Island theaters couldn't save Avatar 2 with showings only 50-60% filled with about 50-60 admissions per showing in the afternoon. Other theater chains such as Golden Harvest and Cinema City both performed OK. Some theaters were quite empty like Candy Park but others like Metroplex (rural theater) and Grand Ocean had showings of over 100 people. Why did this happen? Of all the reasons as to why and how Avatar 2 "failed", ticket price was not what I expected. When I look around Broadway's theaters, most of theirs seems to have set Avatar 2's ticket prices slightly higher by $5-$10 than their counterparts in similar locations. For example, Broadway's Tsuen Wan charges $5 more for an adult ticket to see Avatar 2 than the Tsuen Wan at Emperor. Yet, when I looked at the admissions yesterday, Emperor's Tsuen Wan was winning hands down in admissions despite charging $5 less. Even now, I just looked up the Sunday 10 AM showtime for both Broadway's Tsim Sha Tsui (The ONE) location and Emperor's (iSquare) and iSquare is doing 3:1 business of The One's with the same price point. However, when I look at the business district's theaters, Emperor's Central theater has the highest 3D ticket prices anywhere in HK for a regular theater. It's actually $10 more expensive but that doesn't seem to faze people from buying tickets but for some reason, both Palace IFC and Pacific Place did OK but not spectacular like blockbusters usually do at these locations. I don't understand. So it might not be about ticket price? Maybe? There could be some sort of boycott of Broadway's theaters that I don't know about but it is really odd that MCL as a whole is doing 2-3x the sales of Broadway's for Avatar 2. Maybe Broadway's theaters are getting old and they aren't updating to the newest standards? Their screens aren't big enough? It makes sense that they hastily put up a promotion after 2-3 days to let moviegoers get complimentary 3D glasses for every purchase of an Avatar 2 ticket after previous ticket sales were poor.
Theater chains expectations are definitely mixed. For MCL and Emperor, it is a success. For Broadway, it is a disaster. My expectations were mostly met. I definitely didn't see that Broadway debacle coming though. I feel like I've aged 84 years in the span of a few days tracking the highs and lows of this movie. There are definitely some positives to take away like a higher user score than Avatar (4.3 vs. 4.0 for Avatar) and MCL/Emperor's ticket sales but also some negatives and question marks that definitely won't be answered until after the holidays. Opening Sunday pre-sales watch
One last check. Big jump in both 3D and 2D with 3D filling more than 9% of seats and 2D up 6%. Morning shows are at least half full with one exception. One 3D and one 2D afternoon showing breaks through the halfway mark. Very strong showing here. I wouldn't be surprised if ticket sales exceed 3,000 today at this theater alone. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:00 pm ] | |||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/14 EST: Avatar 2 underwhelms at most theaters | |||||||||||||||
Many factors worked against Avatar 2 including COVID-19, no established fanbase, casual moviegoers not turning to see this in droves, long runtime and high ticket prices. There are some encouraging signs though including Sunday being its best day, WOM looking good-very good, some theaters already having better pre-sales next weekend than this weekend at the same point in time. _________________________ I did some more tracking at New Town Plaza with Sunday's Avatar 2 ticket sales. Here are the highlights. - All morning and afternoon regular theater 3D and 2D showings had more than 100 people. - One showing sold more than 200 tickets - Every regular theater showing after 10 AM with one exception was more than 50% filled. This theater had a PTA of $50,000+ on Sunday alone. If every theater sported this PTA for Avatar 2 on Sunday, Avatar 2 would have made 3m+ on Sunday. _________________________ The brilliance of MCL and Emperor's pricing strategy This doesn't get talked about enough when it comes to their theater chains succeeding where everyone else either failed or only did OK numbers. MCL had the amazing strategy to price their 3D and 2D at the same price. They were the only theater chain to do this and it paid off spectacularly. 3D admissions skyrocketed as a result. The smart play was pricing their 2D a little higher than normal but 3D a little lower. This worked in their favour as it encouraged more movie patrons to see it in 3D. Emperor used a different strategy to get people through their doors. Early morning showings had the lowest ticket prices but late morning and early afternoon were only slightly more expensive than early morning showings. This kept moviegoing viewership high in the early afternoon hours which then bled into their afternoon hours. Contrast this with Broadway, who normally sees two morning showings at the same price including one around 11:30 AM, they only had morning showings before 11 AM and then switched over to afternoon pricing after 11 AM which meant low amounts of moviegoers in the early afternoon and that deadness was reflected with poor showings in the afternoon on Saturday. |
Author: | LPLC [ Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:03 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/14 EST: Avatar 2 underwhelms at most theaters |
After this OW, how much do you think A2 will gross in Hong Kong ? Something like $10M ? $20M ? |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:18 am ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Is Avatar 2 headed for an increase? + PIB2, TNR open | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LPLC wrote: After this OW, how much do you think A2 will gross in Hong Kong ? Something like $10M ? $20M ? ________________________________________________ Is Avatar 2 going to increase this weekend? That's the million dollar question here. Let's take a closer look at what is working in favour and against Avatar 2 increasing this weekend. In favour: 1. Presales are more important than walk-ins 2. Pandemic restrictions end on Wednesday 3. Some theaters are raising their prices 4. Avatar 2 still on the biggest screens 5. Weekend configuration helps Avatar somewhat 6. Possible holiday ticket sales spillage beginning on Friday Against: 1. 5-day opening weekend vs. regular 4-day 2nd weekend 2. 2nd Thursday For any holiday period, there's always a rush to buy tickets early. It is imperative that films do well in pre-sales to get extra screens for the holidays. Why? Well, theaters hold back screens to see which films are performing well in pre-sales and which are doing poorly. Those that do well with early pre-sales will typically get the extra screen. This has been the case with Avatar 2 so far. Pandemic restrictions will end on Wednesday which will give moviegoers more opportunities to get the best seats of the house. For Avatar 2, which has been having trouble with walk-ins at some theaters, this is really good news. Some theaters are even temporarily raising their ticket prices by $5-$10 beginning on Christmas Eve until the first set of holidays ends on Tuesday. So far, I've counted at least 6 theaters that are doing this, so while not all theaters are employing this tactic to make more money, it will have some positive impact on Avatar 2's 2nd weekend gross. Avatar 2 will remain on the biggest screens as even low grossing theaters from last week will want to give it the best possible chance at making the most money. This holiday Christmas weekend configuration isn't the best but it will help Avatar 2 in that both Saturday and Sunday will play like holidays. Christmas Eve is usually depressed when Christmas Day falls on a normal weekday but since it is on a Saturday, this will undeniably help Avatar 2's case for 2nd a weekend increase. With this weekend configuration, it won't be uncommon to see spillover effect that bleeds into Friday especially at night. I don't expect this holiday bump to seep into Thursday but Friday late afternoon might start seeing a minor gain from last weekend's Friday afternoon showings. The negatives, however, are that Avatar 2's coming weekend will be judged against Avatar 2's 5-day OW and that Thursday will continue to still be a problem. Can the Saturday/Sunday increase stave off 2nd Thursday's likely week-to-week decrease and the difference of opening Wednesday's gross? Early Christmas weekend watch Avatar 2 pre-sales have looked very good so far. Some showings already had more than 100 tickets sold by Monday afternoon. It is outpacing Puss in Boots 2 and The Narrow Road by far in pre-sales. There's not much interest for Puss in Boots 2 but it does see a very noticeable increase in ticket pre-sales on Saturday. The Narrow Road looks like a flop. Early predictions for this weekend: Avatar 2 - 3.6m (-7%)/$8.75m total Puss in Boots 2 - $400-600k The Narrow Road - 150-200k (250-300k with sneaks included?) |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:40 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Is Avatar 2 headed for an increase? + PIB2, TNR open | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:05 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: Is Avatar 2 headed for an increase? + PIB2, TNR open |
I'm guesstimating here with Thursday still ongoing but Avatar 2 might decrease 33% from last Thursday when all is said and done. 394,000 (-33%)/$5,585,000 Which theaters are performing the best with Avatar 2 on Christmas Eve? I did a deep dive into Avatar 2's pre-sales on Saturday and these are the results of the best and the worst performing theaters so far. I only counted ticket sales for regular + premium theaters (no IMAX included). Best theaters 1. New Town Plaza - 1,201 admissions (2 showings with over 100 people) 2. K11 Art House - 1,049 admissions 3. Telford - 641 admissions :shock: No surprises with the top 2. Telford is a bit of a shock though. I thought for sure Festival Walk or Elements or Hollywood would take the bronze. Worst theaters 1. GH Galaxy - 2 admissions 2. Broadway Mongkok - 4 admissions 3. Cinematheque - 12 admissions Key highlights - Total for Saturday pre-sales came to 14,257. That would be down about -55% from last Saturday's presales from regular + premium theaters only (no IMAX included) with 1.5 days of pre-selling to go. - MCL theater chain accounted for almost half of that total. - MCL is beating Broadway by over 2.5x. - MCL holds 8 of the top 9 slots of the best performing theaters for Avatar 2. - 8 theaters recorded a showing of over 100 admissions sold. - 2 theaters have 2 showings of 100+ people. - 3 theaters' night time showings have seen the most tickets sold for a single showing, with a 4th theater tying with its night time show - MCL has the best average admissions per theater. 2nd depends on how you look at it. For any theater, CGV ranks 2nd but out of all the theater chains, Emperor ranks 2nd. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:53 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/22 THU: Avatar 2 holds well; PIB2 weak; TNR flops | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Actuals 1. Avatar 2 - $506,813 (-14.1%)/$5,876,473 2. Puss in Boots 2 - $46,190 3. The Narrow Road - $21,812 Good hold for Avatar 2 from last Thursday's deflated gross. Looks like all weekdays this week have been above $500,000. One of the good things embedded in this hold is that walk-ins made up 40% of Avatar 2's Thursday business which is up from the 65-35 presales to walkins split from last week. Puss in Boots 2 did very underwhelming business. I think the best it can hope for is tripling its Thursday business on Saturday which would take it to a $450,000 OW. We'll see if word of mouth takes shape. Right now, if it performs just OK, it would only gross about $300,000 this weekend. The Narrow Road did terribly. Opening weekend is maybe only looking at $135,000.
One thing that I didn't mention is that New Town Plaza's Avatar 2 Christmas Eve pre-sales are up 38.8% from last Sunday's pre-sales with less time of Thursday's check of pre-sales. This, along with better % walk-ins on Thursday, bodes well for an increase on both Saturday/Sunday. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Fri Dec 23, 2022 7:19 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/22 THU: Avatar 2 holds well; PIB2 weak, TNR flops |
I'm seeing a lot of solid holds from last Friday's 7-8 PM showtimes in regular theaters. Of course, there are a couple of outliers, but in general, showings have sold about 50-60 tickets and holds are somewhere -5% to -25% range from last Friday's nighttime showings. Walk-ins have done steady business today. I'm getting more confident that tomorrow and Sunday will see decent walk-in sales. IMAX is looking very strong today. The most rural theater's nighttime showing is more than 70% full today which it never saw on its opening weekend. Others have seen their showings at near full capacity. I think it will get to 32,000 admissions today which is about a 11% drop from last Friday. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:06 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/22 THU: Avatar 2 holds well; PIB2 weak, TNR flops | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Christmas Eve pre-sales watch
One of the differences of this weekend is that some theaters are raising prices for all films during the holiday period. The increase in price ranges from $5-$15 but there doesn't seem to be many theaters that will use this tactic to generate more revenue. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sun Dec 25, 2022 3:02 am ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/22 EST: Avatar 2 fends off a pussy and a narrow ro | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Merry Christmas to all the readers of this thread!
Puss in Boots 2 didn't grab many viewers on weekdays but will likely triple its Thursday gross on Sunday. Word of mouth is very strong with a 4.5/5 rating so far. The Narrow Road, despite good reviews, didn't grab much interest. It will get downgraded next week. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sun Dec 25, 2022 5:04 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Avatar 2 to pass Top Gun 2 + enter top 10 within 7 d | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Looks like Sunday night performed worse than expected. I saw a massive slowdown after the 4 PM hour. It's probably looking at a 3.365m 4-day 2nd weekend gross (-13.0%) from opening weekend's 5-day gross. Total is down to 8.735m.
These types of pre-sales drops post Christmas are standard with this configuration. What matters now is how walk-ins perform. The most lucrative time of Avatar 2's run is upon us. If it doesn't increase this week (Mon -> Sun) with 3 holidays embedded, then it's going to drop like a rock after the holiday period is over. I see a 7 day gross of about 5.8-6m which would take it to 14.1-14.3m. Edit: That 14m number would mean that Avatar 2 would overtake Top Gun: Maverick for the highest grossing film of 2022 and land at #8 all time. Both Titanic and Captain America: Civil War will be passed for #6 all time on Monday as Avatar 2 enjoys the last of its Christmas holidays on January 2nd. |
Author: | Algren [ Mon Dec 26, 2022 5:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: Avatar 2 to pass Top Gun 2 + enter top 10 within 7 d |
What's #1-5 all-time in Hong Kong? |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:12 am ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Avatar 2 to pass Top Gun 2 + enter top 10 within 7 d | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK) *** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK) **** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK) ***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK) ****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK) * - still in release Updated. Many films on this list received re-releases during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. I've decided to post the re-release numbers for the top 10 only. Most of the data is taken from HK MPIA with some exceptions (ie. winter releases or films that play in more than one calendar year) While there are no surprises that the top of the list are dominated by comic book adaptations, sequels and James Cameron, I am very surprised that there was no 9m Chinese language film before this year. Now, we might potentially have 2 10m grossing Chinese language films!
Ok for both Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2. Pre-sales start to take a nosedive on the last holiday with this Christmas configuration. With this configuration, the upcoming New Year's weekend will see soft drops from the previous week during weekdays and will escalate quickly with steeper drops as New Year's Day approaches. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:29 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Avatar 2 to pass Top Gun 2 + enter top 10 within 7 d | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I will have another update later today provided that full actuals are released. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:28 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/29 THU: Avatar 2 eases; PIB2 strong; TNR weak; Fab | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Avatar 2 is looking at a 2.645m weekend (-17.2%)/$13.86m total and will fly up to #8 on the all time list ahead of Top Gun: Maverick.
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK) *** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK) **** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK) ***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK) ****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK) * - still in release Updated through Tuesday with Avatar 2's full gross added in and Table for Six's new number. There is also a slight adjustment with Monsters U's US gross because the old US gross # fell behind Table for Six's US gross. I will most likely have another update later today. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Fri Dec 30, 2022 6:39 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: Will Avatar 2 fly to #2 all time? |
Thursday Estimated Actuals 1. Avatar 2 - $421,971 (-16.7%)/$11,633,067 2. Puss in Boots 2 - $48,097 (+4.1%)/$679,771 3. The Narrow Road - $24,497 (+12.3%)/$307,820 4. The Sparring Partner - $14,108 (+15.8%)/5,079,046 5. The Fabelmans - $12,825 (opening day actual) Good hold for Avatar 2. Strong holds for Puss in Boots 2 and The Narrow Road. Excellent for The Sparring Partner. This has already achieved a 12x multiplier from its opening weekend including sneak previews. What an amazing year for local and Chinese language films. The top 4 Chinese language films (Warriors of Future, Table for Six, Mama's Affair, The Sparring Partner) have combined for a whopping 239.8m HK this year alone! Meanwhile, The Fabelmans ends up losing to a 2 month old film. What a disaster. Avatar 2 Long Range Discussion - Does Avatar 2 have a shot at beating Avatar's HK gross? The short answer is yes. When Avatar came out of the holiday period with 80.3m HK, no one could have expected it to leg out to a 178m HK finish. But it did. Avatar defied all odds the weekend after New Years and still remains the only major movie released before Christmas week in recent years to ever drop less than 50% after New Year's weekend. The weekend after New Year's is typically seen as one of the "holdover death" weekends where all holdovers go to die. Even Chinese New Year with 8 new films didn't faze it either. Avatar 2's run has been interesting to track so far. It underwhelmed opening weekend then pushed back Christmas weekend to a good hold and now it looks on track to drop less than 20% this weekend. Next weekend is where everything changes. How will it hold? Right now, it is tracking below Avatar's drops, however, it is still pretty much above a lot of winter releases and with IMAX/premium theaters to supplement its gross, the holds won't be drastically awful. Looking back, Avatar made 54.9% of its run after the New Years' holiday break and is also, I believe, the only film released before Christmas week to gross more after the holidays than during. It also only dropped more than 50% on its very last weekend in theaters during the whole "Battle of the Man's" Saga when it was yanked from its remaining IMAX screen and replaced with Iron Man 2. Avatar 2 won't follow that run simply because it's a sequel and it started with a much higher OW than Avatar. If that 13.856m prediction is upheld, however, I could see Avatar 2 building towards a 23.09m finish. That means 40% of its gross will come after New Year's Day. A couple of factors that will help it. It will have IMAX pretty much to itself until February unless if it collapses. If Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fades fast, I could see Avatar 2 coming back into IMAX on week 3 of Ant-Man's run. Also, if Avatar 2 gets Oscar nominations/wins, we could see an expansion of theaters into March. Weekends to watch out for: 1. January 5th weekend - Avatar 2's 4th weekend - Weekend after New Year's 2. January 19th weekend - Avatar 2's 6th weekend - Chinese New Year 3. February 16th weekend - Avatar 2's 10th weekend - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hits theaters |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:35 am ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: Will Avatar 2 fly to #2 all time? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I was looking at a random selection of regular theaters today for Avatar 2 and most seem to be down 40-50% from last Saturday's admissions. If it makes only $675,000 today, that would be about a -36% drop. A couple of regular theaters have dropped about 20% from last Saturday's showtimes but it seems the disparity between IMAX/premium theaters and regular theaters will only grow larger. The only real saving grace today is that IMAX is down about 5-10% from last Saturday. |
Author: | Samweis Gamdschie [ Sat Dec 31, 2022 11:38 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: Will Avatar 2 fly to #2 all time? |
Thx for all the updates Blue, I really appreciate them. Overall, it seems its doing okay in HK, but I hoped for more (I expected it would battle against Avengers). |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:38 am ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/28 PROJ: Avatar 2 holds OK-ish, enters top 10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yeah, Avatar 2 holds are OK-good so far. I keep waiting for Avatar 2 to perform like a mini-Avatar but it hasn't even done that. Happy New Year!
________________________________________ Broadway is following MCL's lead and setting 3D prices the same as 2D for Avatar 2 beginning on Tuesday. The added bonus of cheap Tuesdays means that ticket prices will decrease by HK$40-55 from holiday Monday before returning back to normal levels on Wednesday with an increase of about HK$15 from Tuesday. Overall, 3D prices are reduced by HK$35. I have to say that it's about time. Avatar 2 has exposed Broadway for their cheap and old ways. They were coasting on their top tier status for ages but now that audiences are in demand to see Avatar 2 on the best screens/theaters, audiences definitively chose MCL/Emperor over Broadway. Broadway has lost millions of HK$ to MCL with Avatar 2 but this feels like a cheap ploy to win back moviegoers. I'm not sure it will work for Avatar 2. Normal movies are playing just fine though. Really, the most telling sign was when more rural MCL theaters were beating high traffic theaters such as IFC or Pacific Place or even tripling other Broadway theaters with Christmas Eve pre-sales. There's absolutely no excuse for those theaters to lose to rural theaters at all. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:30 am ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK 12/28 EST: Avatar 2 just OK, enters top 10 all time | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
For Avatar 2's Sunday and Monday admissions, I took a look at random theaters and it was a mixed bag. Some places doubled or tripled their Sunday admissions from Saturday's showtimes. Most theaters were on the upswing and a couple of theaters were flat from Saturday. Monday's admissions also saw some steep declines from Sunday at some theaters while others increased from Sunday's admissions with a couple flat from Sunday. The Week Ahead 3 weeks of Avatar 2 predictions. 3 overpredictions. It is definitely a cause for concern when Avatar 2 is down 33% week-to-week on a holiday weekend. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence for the "death" week ahead. Potential Weekly Breakdown: Monday - $540,000 (-48.6%) Tuesday - $160,000 Wednesday - $140,000 Thursday - $130,000 (-69.0%) Friday - $170,000 Saturday - 250,000 (-62.1%) Sunday - $245,000 4th weekend: 795,000 (-65.2%) 26-day total: $15,115,000 Note: Monday, Thursday and Saturday holds are week-to-week holds based off of estimate actuals. By Monday, Avatar 2 will have broken 14m and passed Top Gun: Maverick for #8, however, it will probably be a much tougher road to break 15m, needing the rest of the week to do it. This is really the last chance for Avatar 2 to show something other than just OK-good holds. Next weekend, theaters will start holding sneak previews for upcoming Chinese New Year contenders The First Slam Dunk and A Guilty Conscience. If this weekend prediction comes to pass, drops should be much lighter from here on out because most of the remaining gross will be coming from IMAX and premium theaters and those are still doing very well. It is still very unclear as to where Avatar 2 will finish because of IMAX showings and what will happen to them when Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania releases and possible theater expansion due to Oscar nominations and wins. |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:35 am ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: How much more can Avatar 2 rake in? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Note 2: The Menu and Violent Night may not have been ranked #7 and #8 respectively last week. Note 3: Last Week USD column has been added. For reference, Avatar 2 made 8.82m ($68,929,906 HK) total up to Christmas Day. Disappointing week for Avatar 2. It had 3 holidays and wasn't able to increase from last week. Puss in Boots 2/The Narrow Road both saw strong increases from last week. The Fabelmans flopped hard with over 40 theaters showing this while Triangle of Sadness performed very well with only 7 theaters screening it.
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK) *** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK) **** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK) ***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK) ****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK) * - still in release Avatar 2 soars into the top 10 with updated total. Table for Six moves to #23. There is also a slight adjustment with Monsters U's US gross because the old US gross # was ahead of Table for Six's updated US gross. Where does Avatar 2 go from here? Last post, I said that the landscape for Avatar 2's final total is still unclear. It is because it will come down to how well Avatar 2 performs in IMAX, VIP theaters and how Oscar nominations/wins affects its run. Here's what I'm thinking. Avatar 2's run ends in February: 18-21m Avatar 2's run continues into March with expansion from Oscar nominations/wins: 22-26m It is a foregone conclusion that Avatar 2 will retain its IMAX screens through Chinese New Year. That should easily net another 2-4m in IMAX from the entire CNY holiday window (7-10 days depending on weekend configuration, not just the 3 CNY holidays) What will be interesting to watch is how well it performs end of January into February in both IMAX and premium theaters. I've already considered regular theaters as a lost cause but both IMAX and premium theaters added together can make upwards of about $700,000 alone for a 4-day weekend. _____________ Now to some Avatar 2 box office news from Collider about IMAX Quote: Now, an impressive total of 18 countries are starting off the new year with the latest Avatar film as its biggest ever IMAX release – the growing list now includes key markets India, Germany, Thailand and South Korea in addition to France, Turkey, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland. The film achieved all-time Top 5 status in 48 countries, sitting at #2 in the United Arab Emirates; #3 in Mexico; #4 in Hong Kong and Denmark; as well as #5 in Sweden. |
Author: | LPLC [ Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:12 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: How much more can Avatar 2 rake in? |
Hello bluebomb, do you have the exact number of all the admissions of Titanic, Endgame, Avatar 1, Infinity war and No way home with all the re-release taken into account ? Thank you |
Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:05 am ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: HK: How much more can Avatar 2 rake in? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LPLC wrote: Hello bluebomb, do you have the exact number of all the admissions of Titanic, Endgame, Avatar 1, Infinity war and No way home with all the re-release taken into account ? Thank you
Boring day as none of the other films cleared 1,000 admissions in pre-sales. Not listed in the chart is The Fabelmans which fell out of the top 10 down 82% from opening day pre-sales. ________________________________________ Megabox IMAX is increasing their Avatar 2 afternoon/evening showing prices for all sets of people by $10 beginning this week. An extra $10 means during the CNY period, it could gross almost an extra US$2,000 for the Sunday-Wednesday CNY public holiday period with 51% capacity per showing on top of what they were charging the first 3 weeks of release. This seems very small but add in every single day's afternoon/evening shows from this IMAX theater from now till the end of its run and it could tally over $20,000 from this additional charge alone. Every little bit helps Avatar 2 swim higher to the top of the leaderboard. |
Author: | Algren [ Thu Jan 05, 2023 6:18 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: HK: How much more can Avatar 2 rake in? |
Nice to see Operation Fortune is playing somewhere. I believe it's also out in Slovakia. I hope it eventually gets a U.S. release, but I'm not holding my breath. I suspect it will go to streaming. It feels like the type of film that will release in China 18 months after the rest of the world. |
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