Saturday adm.				May 7
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast Five	--	26557	--	+82.7%
2	Thor 3D	37071	17896	-51.7%	+49.4%
3	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	13563	8680	-36.0%	+87.7%
4	The Lost Bladesman	28532	8285	-71.0%	+39.8%
5	Punished	--	6752	--	+53.3%

Amazing jump for Fast Five. Thor increased nicely but Fast Five catapulted ahead. Superb for Sex. It's box office run so far has been amazing and fascinating at the same time. Awful for The Lost Bladesman. Good for Punished.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			May 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Thor 3D	17012	7508	-55.9%	-1.6%
2	Fast Five	--	6442	--	+0.0%
3	The Lost Bladesman	8516	3128	-63.3%	+30.9%
4	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	4799	1840	-61.7%	-30.4%
5	Punished	--	1622	--	--

	Sunday adm.				May 8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast Five	--	22939	--	-13.6%
2	Thor 3D	39375	14886	-62.2%	-16.8%
3	The Lost Bladesman	28982	7556	-73.9%	-8.8%
4	Punished	--	5744	--	-14.9%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	13100	5449	-58.4%	-19.3%

No Monday holidays this time to buoy the drop.

BUT...we have another holiday on Tuesday (Buddha's Birthday). Looking at the presales for Tuesday, it is pretty much neck-and-neck between the two. Thor is looking very strong and seems to be beating Fast Five in morning shows, but, Fast Five is coming back in the afternoon.


Forgot to post weekend admissions...my bad.

	Weekend adm.			May 5-8
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Fast Five	--	76064	--
2	Thor 3D	119250	53597	-55.1%
3	The Lost Bladesman	90812	26148	-71.2%
4	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	41024	22268	-45.7%
5	Punished	--	20409	--

Oh, Thor is set to outgross Fast Five when all is said and done. But Fast and Furious (the franchise) has never been really popular in Hong Kong to begin with.

I kinda expected that number for Bladesman, the reviews are pretty awful here....some people gave it 1 star because the site does not allow zero

Oh, no doubt. It could possibly sneak out a weekend victory here too.

Yes, good opening for Fast Five. It has a good chance of becoming the highest in franchise history in only 5 days.

Weekend/cumulative actuals:

1. Fast Five - $532,774 (if that # holds, it could pass Fast & Furious in only 4 days to become the biggest in the franchise...unless data for the first Fast comes out)
2. Thor - $1,930,343 (total)
3. Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy - $4,419,200 (total)
4. The Lost Bladesman - $900,827+ (not actual, reported that it broke 7 million HK$)
5. Punished - $128,689- (close to but did not break 1 million HK)
6. Water for Elephants - $96,517
A Chinese Ghost Story - $489,020 (total)

Others:

Love Crime - $11,324
Buddha Mountain - $6,434?

Summer Blockbuster Schedule:

Release Date	Movie Title
May 18	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
June 2	X-Men: First Class The Hangover 2
June 9	Super 8
June 16	Green Lantern
June 30	Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
July 14	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2
July 21	Kung Fu Panda 2
August 4	Cars 2 Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes Captain America: The First Avenger
August 18	Cowboys & Aliens The Smurfs

Analysis and predictions coming later. Poll added.

Opening in a blockbusters-scarce month puts Pirates 4 in a very good position to claim the summer movie crown. Scratch that. Transformers 3 has an even better release date; it will capitalize on the July 1 & 2 holiday. Harry Potter The Finale will certainly pull in humongous numbers too.

So my guesses:

1. Transformers 3
2. Harry Potty the finale
3. Pirates 4
4. Captain America: The First Avenger
5. Green Lantern

May 19

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

OW: $2,350,000 + ($300,000 Wednesday night)
2nd weekend: $1,007,000 (-62%)
3rd weekend: $312,170 (-69%)
4th weekend: $37,460 (-88%)
Total: $5,150,000

Pirates is the first big entry for the summer. It has maximum support from IMAX, the 4D screen as well as regular theaters. It will also be shown early on May 18 (night shows only).

The Pirates series has increased its OW every sequel released. This will be the first 3D film of the franchise so its OW gross will soften the blow from the loss of admissions. As the franchise has become more frontloaded in recent sequels, I fully expect the rabid fans to come out in force OW. It wouldn't surprise me to see a 3,000,000 OW but for now I am being conservative due to the long runtime/increased ticket prices (= more people watching weekend mornings).

The troubling thing about the series is its legs. At World's End experienced a 60% drop in week 2 with no competition. In week 3, it fell 61% when Ocean's Thirteen opened. Funnily enough, while Dead Man's Chest had better drops than At World's End, Dead Man's Chest grossed less than At World's End and disappeared in just 5 weeks.

This time around, Pirates will be challenged by both Hangover 2 and X-Men: First Class in week 3. It wouldn't surprise me to see an 80-85% drop in week 3 due to competition from the X-Men: First Class/Hangover 2 combo. That Monday is a holiday so Sunday will be inflated. Pirates will grab extra change there but it will be miniscule in my opinion. In week 4, Super 8 comes out and by then, Pirates won't be grossing as much so its screens will be slashed in addition to IMAX screens so I am predicting an 86% drop although I believe it could dip into 90% range. That sounds like a crazy drop but Pirates has never been about legs. Also, it's IMAX screens are getting cut that weekend for Super 8 and Super 8 will be a huge grosser. I think this will be gone after week 5 (the week Green Lantern opens).

As for the total, I think it actually could fall below the 5 million range and really, while this is a big movie, this is not expected to challenge for the crown unlike Transformers, Harry Potter or Kung Fu Panda.

ah, I completely forgot about Kung Fu Panda 2. The first one did pretty well with over $4 million in the bag. It might compete for the fourth place then (as long as people don't see Jackie Chan's name on the poster. ).

I got a feeling Green Lantern will work like the first Transformers as light-hearted entertainment. But what do I know? It can be a Incredible Hulk repeat.

so my revised guesses:

1. Harry Potter finale $6.5 million
2. Transformers 3 $6.5 million
3. Pirates 4 $5.8 million
4. Kung Fu Panda $4.5 million
5. Captain America $2.8 million
6. Green Lantern $2.4 million

I'm going to try this again...dang site logged me out again after I finished typing the write-up.

June 2

X-Men: First Class vs. The Hangover 2

This is the first of our two showdowns this summer.

The X-Men series has been a steady franchise in that both of the past 2 films in the collection have grossed over 1 million OW. This will be no different.

This X-Men instead will not focus on a singular character but on the group as a whole. It may grab a few extra eyeballs OW. However, most that wanted to see X-Men before will want to see the new film when it comes out so the addition will be very slim. With the added advantage of 3D, this should be a slam dunk hit to gross over 1m OW. It will make more than what Wolverine did but most likely less than The Last Stand.

The problem though is its legs. In the previous two films, both of the films' OWs accounted for 58% of the total gross. Also, the prequel fell 70% in its second weekend with no competition. With increased competition from Super 8 and Green Lantern in the following weeks, I suspect that the OW will account for even more this time around.

OW - $1,400,000
Total - $1,960,000

The Hangover 2 is the follow-up to the popular rowdy comedy The Hangover. In 2009, The Hangover opened to just under $200,000 but enjoyed a rare leggy run to end at $720,509. With increased awareness this time around, its OW should be considerably stronger but its legs will suffer as a result. Its rating won't be a big factor here so it won't suffer too much if it receives a III rating.

Super 8 and Green Lantern will steal away some of its audience in the following weeks but its drops won't be too harsh. It should still enjoy a good run and it could even find its way to $1,500,000 if it has the same word of mouth as the first. It will also increase over its predecessor as it will ride on its great word of mouth from the first film into the second.

OW - $550,000
Total - $1,275,000

Buddha's Birthday/Bun Festival admissions:

	Tuesday adm.				May 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast Five	--	28879	--	--
2	Thor 3D	--	18446	--	--
3	The Lost Bladesman	--	7265	--	--
4	Punished	--	7085	--	--
5	Water For Elephants	--	5976	--	--

Excellent for Fast Five. Really running away now. With that number, it is 60-70% up on Fast & Furious. Very good for Thor. I still think it can cross 2.5 million. Alarmingly bad for The Lost Bladesman. It is the only film of the top 4 to decrease from Saturday. Good for Punished. The inclusion of Water For Elephants means that Sex did not make the top 5. It's extremely weird how badly it does on holidays. Tomorrow, it will be in the top 3 with a pretty good number for a weekday.

Here in Singapore as well there is X-Men vs Hangover showdown on June 2....though the slates are changing very rapidly here.

Yep. 2 more new films added to the already busy summer schedule.

Summer Blockbuster Schedule:

Release Date	Movie Title
May 18	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
June 2	X-Men: First Class The Hangover 2
June 9	Super 8
June 16	Green Lantern
June 22	Chinese Communist Party
June 30	Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
July 14	Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2
July 21	Kung Fu Panda 2
August 4	Cars 2 Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes Captain America: The First Avenger Wu Xia
August 18	Cowboys & Aliens The Smurfs

Chinese Communist Party is a political drama chronicling the CCP's birth and stars Andy Lau and Chow Yun Fat. Wu Xia is another Donnie Yen martial arts action flick. Both should have sizable grosses OW.

Chinese Communist Party has been compared to Founding Of A Republic and that opened to $500,000. Similar gross here is not out of the question as nothing is coming out that week and it is one of the few Chinese dramas to be released this summer.

That April 4 weekend looks deadly. I've seen a lot of shuffling going on but none have been confirmed by more than 1 source. Rumors I've heard:

- Cars 2 moving to August 11
- Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes moving to August 11
- Transformers 3 moving to July 11 [debunked]
- Captain America moving to July 2
- Mars Needs Moms opening on July 1

Fun to see these while it lasts.

Just to give you guys a tease, I present to you my predictions for the biggest blockbusters coming up in the summer.

Huge Summer Blockbuster Predictions:

- Pirates will not make 5m (changing my prediction). An alarming stat that the two previous Pirates share is that their OWs account for nearly 50% of its total gross. (49% for At World's End, 54% Dead Man's Chest) Although the gap between the OW and total is increasing with each movie, Pirates faces massive competition in week 3 then even more in subsequent weekends. I also think the series is going to decline a bit. Inflation + too many blockbuster movies means that people are going to choose which movies to watch. Pirates I believe will be a casualty of that.

- Transformers will not break 3m OW and will drop more than 70% on one of the weekends when Harry or Panda opens.

- Harry Potter will break 3m OW and take out Toy Story 3's OW record.

- Harry Potter will not be #1 for 2 weeks and will drop more than 60% in its 2nd weekend.

- Kung Fu Panda 2 will make 2.5m OW.

- Kung Fu Panda 2 will win the summer.

I will explain all of my predictions later. I'm not going to predict Cars 2 just yet because there is still a lot of shuffling going on in August.

Blue you don't think Cars2 will do good in HK ?

Oh, it definitely will. It's just that I didn't want to predict how Cars would do yet since there have been a lot of schedule changes for August in the past week or so. Anyways, Cars opened to over $900,000 back in 2006. That was when it opened against the powerhouse Superman Returns. It won't do the business that the big 3 will do but it should bring in a good amount.

Schedules for Thursday

Note: The number in brackets () is the number of showtimes a movie had on Tuesday, not Wednesday, due to the special night previews for Pirates 4.

Note 2: The hyphen in brackets (-) means no change in the amount of showtimes.

Tsuen Wan
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 12 showings	Priest - 3 showings (▼ from 6 on Tues.)	Thor 3D
	The Detective 2 - 3 showings (▼ 6)	The Lost Bladesman
	Fast Five - 3 showings (▼ 6)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 20 showings	Priest - 4 showings (▼ 8)	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D
	The Detective 2 - 6 showings (▼ 7)	Punished
	Gantz: Perfect Answer - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Source Code
	Fast Five - 3 showings (▼ 7)
	Water For Elephants - 1 showing (-)
	Thor 3D - 1 showing (▼ 4)
	The Lost Bladesman - 1 showing (▼ 5)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 17 showings	Priest - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Just Go With It
	The Detective 2 - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Punished
	Fast Five - 2 showings (▼ 6)
	Water For Elephants - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Thor 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)
	The Lost Bladesman - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Source Code - 1 showing (▼ 3)

Hollywood
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 18 showings	Priest - 5 showings (▼ 6)	Thor 3D
	The Detective 2 - 5 showings (▼ 6)	The Lost Bladesman
	Punished - 2 showings (▼ 4)	Water For Elephants
	Fast Five - 2 showings (▼ 6)
	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D - 1 showing (▼ 3)

More Pirates schedules will be added tomorrow.

Also, the blockbuster summer calendar has been updated. Please check the first post for more details.

X-men is NOT releasing in 3D.

Palace IFC

New

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 14 showings

Animal Kingdom - 5 showings

Pacific Place

New

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 15 showings

Festival Walk

New

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D - 19 showings

	Wednesday adm.	(so far)		May 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	8694	--
2	The Detective 2	--	5315	--
3	Gantz: Perfect Answer	--	3967	--
4	Priest 3D	--	3096	--
5	Fast Five	--	2930	--

Good start for Pirates. It's already done over 50% of what Ip Man 2 did on its opening Wednesday.

The first Cars has too much Southern taste which alienated many foreigners upon its release. I doubt the second one will improve much from the first in Hong Kong.

The Hangover 2 has some great potential in Hong Kong. The first one has so much comic elements that Hong Kong people can relate to. It would have made a great Hong Kong comedy had it not been in English. I hope they release a dubbed version for Hong Kong locals to increase the movie's chance at success there.

I think it has a good shot at 3m. The way that Disney has tried to schedule this seems like they are learning from their mistakes from last time. They are trying to move this away from Kung Fu Panda 2 which is a very smart move and to the end of summer where it should have a very good opening and good legs.

Speaking of the schedule, one day after Smurfs moved to August 4, Wu Xia has now moved to August 18. Also a new addition has been added to the blockbuster list.

The Smurfs moving to August 4 has probably killed its chances of 1m total. Cars 2 opens the next week and it will have to contend with Captain America & Rise of the Planet of the Apes for screens. It will also have to duel HP8 and KFP2 for screens. Even with all these negatives, HK people flocked to see little people when Gulliver's Travels came out. Maybe this is something that will resonate with HK people/children and might surprise at the box office.

Wu Xia moving is smart. Considering that everyone and their dog is in the Chinese Communist Party movie and the insane amount of movies being released on August 4, it would have been hard pressed to gain any traction/money. It now has a chance of a decent opening and good legs.

	Wednesday adm.			May 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	16783	--
2	The Detective 2	--	8806	--
3	Fast Five	--	6795	--
4	Gantz: Perfect Answer	--	5890	--
5	Priest 3D	--	4028	--

Beats Ip Man 2's opening day. Also has the added advantage of higher ticket prices (HK$10 more than other 3D movies, about HK$40-$50 more than 2D films)

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		May 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	21559	--
2	Priest 3D	3665	1566	-57.3%
3	The Detective 2	2124	1094	-48.5%
4	Fast Five	2410	841	-65.1%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	--	761	--

Incredible for Pirates. I wonder if it can break 50k admissions by the end of today.

Rest of the holdovers didn't do so well. Priest is definitely going to drop below 60% today. It doesn't do well with walk-ins. The Detective had a big boost last Thursday. It might not be able to match it this week. Fast Five's drop is ugly. It looks like the bottom 4 films won't be able to do a 3 multiplier from these numbers.

Pirates (not really opening day Thursday) watch

Festival Walk:

11:00 AM - 95/156 (morning show)
11:35 AM - 173/354 (morning show)
12:10 PM - 31/156
1:00 PM - 28/138
1:30 PM - 37/156
2:10 PM - 79/354
2:40 PM - 36/156
3:30 PM - 32/138
4:05 PM - 37/156
4:40 PM - 76/354
5:10 PM - 37/156
6:00 PM - 35/138
6:40 PM - 43/156
7:10 PM - 160/354
7:40 PM - 50/156
8:30 PM - 43/138
9:10 PM - 42/156
9:40 PM - 97/354
10:10 PM - 32/156
Total - 1163/3882 (29.9% full)

*Tickets for morning shows get discounted around 40-45% off.

2.5m for the 4.25 days should be achievable with an outside shot at 3m. Weekend business needs to be insanely strong for it to happen though.

Happy to read Pirates is doing well.

It looks like Pirates 4 will soon unseat the 3D torture porno (currently at US$4.85 million) to become the No. 1 film of the year. And my US$5.8 million prediction for it won't be too far off.

Chinese Communist Party is an outright propaganda film (or a propaganda film disguised as a star-studded entertainment event). HongKongers were smart to not eat up Founding of A Republic (another politically "harmonizing" film) last year. I hope they'll do the same this year.

We'll just have to see about your prediction. At World's End fell 60% in its 2nd weekend with no competition. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence that this one will fall less than 60% next weekend. With 3D and higher ticket prices, the drop may be even more exaggerated next week. 2nd weekend is going to be the key in how much it makes. It's going to get crushed in its 3rd weekend. The Hangover really built as the weeks went by and X-Men is going to get good business. 4th weekend should see it fall at least 70% with the loss of IMAX and screens.

Dead Man's Chest had softer drops but a lower opening and was gone after only 5 weeks. At World's End had a bigger opening, worse drops (not one drop below 55% -- and that 55% drop was in its 5th weekend), but still managed to pull off 5.35 million in the end. If we look at the drops for At World's End in more detail:

2nd weekend: -60% (no competition)
3rd weekend: -61% (Ocean's Thirteen opens)
4th weekend: -66% (Fantastic Four opens)
5th weekend: -55% (Simply Actors; Eye in the Sky opens)
6th weekend: -84% (Shrek 3 opens)

In its 4th weekend, a superhero movie opened. This begs the question how will it fare against a stronger/more recognizable franchise like X-Men this year? The two pirate sequels beforehand haven't really faced huge competition except for Fantastic Four and Shrek 3, but by then, Pirates was barely making peanuts at that point.

June 9

Super 8

OW - $920,000
Total - $2,030,000

It isn't a summer without an alien movie. Super 8, one of the most anticipated releases since its first teaser trailer was released makes it way to HK on June 9. In a summer filled with sequels, this may turn out to be the highest grossing original movie of the summer. A sizable group love alien flicks here so expect them and a few others attracted by the starpower from J.J. Abrams/Steven Spielberg combo to come out opening weekend. Trailer was slick and should grab some curious people as well to see it. It'll be in tough because it'll have to deal with Hangover 2 and X-Men leftovers but should be enough to take #1 for the weekend.

Legs will be somewhat of a problem as Green Lantern comes out the next week. Chinese Communist Party/London Boulevard will affect the screens and then Transformers comes out the week after. Alien movies are not known for legs at all. Cloverfield/Skyline both did not make a 2 multiplier while Battle: Los Angeles's OW accounted for 44% of the total.

Totals could range anywhere from 1.2-2.5m but I think this one should do fairly well. Even though it's not a franchise that has awareness like AvP, it does have that mysterious factor surrounding the movie. Summer also helps with openings and totals so it won't pull another Cloverfield in my opinion.

	Thursday adm.			May 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	36551	--
2	The Detective 2	8188	3289	-59.8%
3	Fast Five	7924	3245	-59.0%
4	Priest 3D	7538	2223	-70.5%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	2556	1645	-35.6%

Pirates ends up missing 40k by quite a lot. Walk-ins have been very disappointing. Tough drops for the 3 openers from last week. Sex & Zen is continuing its interesting run. Very good drop even though it's not making much now and it's only Thursday.

Admission increases for the top 5 (pre-sales to finals):

1. Pirates 4 - +69.5%
2. The Detective 2 - +200.6%
3. Fast Five - +285.9%
4. Priest - +42.0%
5. Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy - +116.2%

	Friday adm.	(so far)			May 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 3D	--	26557	--	+23.2%
2	Priest 3D	4154	1670	-59.8%	+6.6%
3	The Detective 2	2997	1625	-45.8%	+48.5%
4	Fast Five	3089	1307	-57.7%	+55.4%
5	Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy 3D	1017	709	-30.3%	-6.8%

I expected a better increase than that for Pirates.



Pirates 4 Saturday showings watch

Pacific Place - 21 showings (2 morning shows)
Palace APM - 25 showings (5 morning shows)
Tsuen Wan - 18 showings (4 morning shows)
Palace IFC - 21 showings (2 morning shows)

Wednesday was considered advance screenings for Pirates 4, which officially opens today.