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Early March 25-27 Predictions
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Author:  Libs [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Early March 25-27 Predictions
Miss Congeniality 2: $23.5 million
Guess Who: $23 million

I'm seeing a close race for #1 between these two. The Ring Two will probably fall by too much to have a shot at it.
Author:  Schlomo [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
MC2: 25
Guess Who: 19
Ring 2: 18
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Guess Who - $25.5
2. Miss Congeniality 2 - $20.6
3. The Ring Two - $14.5 (-63%)
4. Robots - $13.4 (-35%)
5. The Pacifier - $9.7 (-30%)
6. Ice Princess - $4.8 (-34%)
7. Hitch - $4.0 (-35%)
8. Hostage - $2.9 (-50%)
9. Be Cool - $2.4 (-60%)

Guess what.... Guess Who will surprise. The top two movies, though, appeal to almostly the exact same audience... that may hurt both of them.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
I have a feeling that Guess Who will do very well and Miss Congeniality 2 will falter. Either way, this weekend is every woman's dream. One chick flick and another film that's sort of a date/chick flick movie.

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  Impact [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Guess Who? 25.0
2. Miss Congienlitly 2 22.0
3. Ring 2 17.9
4. Robots 12.5
5. Pacifier 7.8
6. Hitch 4.6
7. Ice Princess 4.4
8. Hostage 2.9
9. Be Cool 2.6
10. Million Dollar Baby 2.5
Author:  MGKC [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
MikeQ. wrote:
I have a feeling that Guess Who will do very well and Miss Congeniality 2 will falter. Either way, this weekend is every woman's dream. One chick flick and another film that's sort of a date/chick flick movie.

PEACE, Mike ;)

Exactly. Miss Congeniality 2 is only going to get the woman audience, but Guess Who will get the couples and groups of friends.

It is like Ice Princess of this weekend, except with everything being younger. Robots and The Pacifier get the main audiences of groups and families, and Ice Princess only got the girls.'

Right now, I hear my mom wanting to see both of these movies. I can't really tell which she want to see more, though.
Author:  Libs [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
MikeQ. wrote:
I have a feeling that Guess Who will do very well and Miss Congeniality 2 will falter. Either way, this weekend is every woman's dream. One chick flick and another film that's sort of a date/chick flick movie.

PEACE, Mike ;)


Heh. Miss Congeniality 2, is (of course) my first priority, but I wouldn't object to seeing Guess Who.
Author:  Jiffy [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think Guess Who? shall overperform and MC2 might not pass $20m, it seems rather unnecessary, and rather um....awful-looking.
Author:  Rev [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
MC2-$19
R2 - $17
GW - $15
Robots - $12
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Author:  MikeQ. [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Libs wrote:
MikeQ. wrote:
I have a feeling that Guess Who will do very well and Miss Congeniality 2 will falter. Either way, this weekend is every woman's dream. One chick flick and another film that's sort of a date/chick flick movie.

PEACE, Mike ;)


Heh. Miss Congeniality 2, is (of course) my first priority, but I wouldn't object to seeing Guess Who.


Don't get me wrong, I'm still a fan of Sandra Bullock, and wish her the very best. I read this incredible article in the newspaper about her talking about her fame and her fame in the film, and how people should be themselves and not conform. She's a great person.

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  Maverikk [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 4:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Just curious, has Sandra Bullock ever had a sequel perform well? Even in her day (which seems to have passed), I can't remember if she had a successful sequel, and if that is indeed true, I can't see it happening all of the sudden now.

Since The Ring 2 is leaving audiences disappointed, I would expect audiences to flock to Guess Who to make them feel better again. They would be much more inclined to see a remake that most don't even know is a remake, than a movie with a big 2 after it, considering they were just let down in that regard.

Sorry, that's just my take.
Author:  Libs [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 5:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
Maverikk wrote:
Just curious, has Sandra Bullock ever had a sequel perform well? Even in her day (which seems to have passed), I can't remember if she had a successful sequel, and if that is indeed true, I can't see it happening all of the sudden now.

Since The Ring 2 is leaving audiences disappointed, I would expect audience to flock to Guess Who to make them feel better again. They would be much more inclined to see a remake that most don't even know is a remake, than a movie with a big 2 after it, considering they were just let down in that regard.

Sorry, that's just my take.


I think that's a flawed analysis. Miss Congeniality 2 won't do well because it's a sequel and people didn't like the sequel (which was a *completely* different kind of movie) that was released the week before?
Author:  Maverikk [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 5:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Libs wrote:
I think that's a flawed analysis. Miss Congeniality 2 won't do well because it's a sequel and people didn't like the sequel (which was a *completely* different kind of movie) that was released the week before?


I think that the movie going public has a very flawed perspective, so I took that into account when I came up with my flawed analysis. :razz:
Author:  jb007 [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 5:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ring 2 is going to get butchered in the second week.

GW 23
MC2 19
The Ring2 12
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 5:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
Guess Who - $23.3M
Miss Congeniality 2 - $12.3M

The Ring Two will be somewhere between them, probably near $20M depending on how well it's multiplyer is. Spring break is pretty much over the next two weeks so inflated #s for all.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 6:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
I just realized Miss Congeniality 2 is opening on the Thursday. I wonder if we'll have to predict it's 3-day or 4-day gross.

PEACE, Mike ;)
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 6:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Miss Congeniality 2 - 19 million
Guess Who - 16 million
The Ring Two - 14 million
Author:  El Maskado [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 6:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Miss Congeniality 18.0 million
2. The Ring 2 16.4 million
3. Guess Who 13.5 million
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 6:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
Have people forgotten that next weekend is Easter weekend?
Good Friday, which is why Miss Con 2 is opening on Thursday night, is a holiday for a lot of people, as is Easter Sunday and/or Monday. I suspect the numbers are going to be higher than the ones predicted here.
Author:  Alex Y. [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 7:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Guess Who - $34 (remember Bringing Down the House? Except this has even more teenager appeal.)
2. The Ring 2 - $19
3. Robots - $12
4. Miss Congeniality 2 - $11.5 (3-day, after getting burned by overpredicting Legally Blonde 2, Charlie's Angels 2, and now The Ring 2, all underperforming sequels to successful movies that had a substantial female audience, I will not go high on this)
5. The Pacifier - $7.6
6. Hitch - $4.3
7. Ice Princess - $4.0
8. Hostage - $3.5
9. Be Cool - $2.9
10. Million Dollar Baby $2.7
**The Passion Recut -$0.5 (+1000% increase)
Author:  misterglass [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 10:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Maverikk wrote:
Just curious, has Sandra Bullock ever had a sequel perform well? Even in her day (which seems to have passed), I can't remember if she had a successful sequel, and if that is indeed true, I can't see it happening all of the sudden now.


She's only had one sequel before and that was 8 years ago with the real star of the movie having dropped out. I see Miss Congeniality 2 being more like Legally Blonde 2 than Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason...but I still see it only doing $25 million or so in its first four days (don't forget that it opens on Thursday!)
Author:  misterglass [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 10:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
Bryan_smith wrote:
Have people forgotten that next weekend is Easter weekend?
Good Friday, which is why Miss Con 2 is opening on Thursday night, is a holiday for a lot of people, as is Easter Sunday and/or Monday. I suspect the numbers are going to be higher than the ones predicted here.


Easter Sunday is not really that great since a lot of people go to church and do family things...essentially Saturday and Friday are reversed where most movies do more on Friday than Saturday and then Sunday has a huge dropoff. Where most movies do anywhere from 2.6 to 4 times Friday over the weekend, it's customary for Easter Weekend movies to do 2.5 or less their Fridays over the weekend. I don't think either new movie will make more than $25 million next weekend, but I give the advantage to Guess Who. Miss COngeniality 2 will be mainly for women and girls whereas that one will have appeal to both men and women (mostly youngers ones I'd expect)
Author:  Jeff [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 11:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. Guess Who -- $22.5 million -- Ashton Kutcher is still a box office draw and the addition of Bernie Mac will allow this to appeal to all demographics.
2. The Ring Two -- $19.1 million -- The Grudge had equally bad WOM as The Ring Two does, so why should it fall twice as hard?
3. Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous -- $17.4 million/$22.3 million ($4.9 million debut on Thursday)
Author:  Libs [ Sat Mar 19, 2005 11:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
shades033 wrote:
Maverikk wrote:
Just curious, has Sandra Bullock ever had a sequel perform well? Even in her day (which seems to have passed), I can't remember if she had a successful sequel, and if that is indeed true, I can't see it happening all of the sudden now.


She's only had one sequel before and that was 8 years ago with the real star of the movie having dropped out. I see Miss Congeniality 2 being more like Legally Blonde 2 than Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason...but I still see it only doing $25 million or so in its first four days (don't forget that it opens on Thursday!)


Yeah, I think Legally Blonde 2 is the perfect comparison for Miss Congeniality 2. Although the difference between the first and the sequel ($96M vs $90M) will not be as small this time ($107M vs. about $65M, perhaps). I do think $25M in 4 days would be excellent for this movie, though.
Author:  zingy [ Sun Mar 20, 2005 12:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Guess Who: $19.5 million
Miss. Congeniality 2: $20.1 million
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