I don't know for sure or anything, and can pretty much only give some info I find online. But on Eiga before, and shortly after, Avatar opened it's "want to see" rating was 4.4/5, which was solid, but not amazing. But soon that rose to 4.9/5, and the current user grade is an "A" (A+ being the highest).

The reason it doesn't seem many people are going to see it is because the Japanese rarely go to the movies, the avg. person seeing 1-2 films the entire year (1.3 was the avg. in 2008), barely 10% will see Avatar in theaters.

They make me seem like a film junkie, and I only see 5 or so a year in theaters. The last I saw was New Moon OW, and the next is gonna be Alice in Wonderland, but that may not be until April.

I would hazard a guess that its 18.44x multiplier just up to this point indicates that WOM is pretty good.

Ha ha good that I am not a Japanese

Feb. 13-14th, 2010 Admission Rankings:

1 1 Avatar Fox 8
2 2 Oceans GAGA 4
3 3 About Her Brother Shochiku 3
4 NEW Valentine's Day WB 1
5 NEW Kôshônin: The movie - Taimu limitto kôdo 10,000 M no zunôsen Toei 1
6 4 Invictus WB 2
7 5 Golden Slumber Toho 3
8 6 Shinkenger Vs Goonger Toei 3
9 10 Paranormal Activity Presidio 3
10 9 Sayonara itsuka Asmik Ace 4

Some info on Oceans:



Oceans is likely around 20m now, and is easily going to surpass Earth.


Also, I got both Coraline and It's Complicated's releases wrong on the previous page, they actually open this coming week (on the 19th), not the 13th. Coraline will be the first 3D feature (not counting the Toy Story re-releases which apparently didn't do much) to be release since Avatar opened. I need to update the release schedule soon.

This weeks openers:

19th
Coraline (2009)
It's Complicated (2009)

20th
Ningen shikkaku (2010)
Rudo y Cursi (2008)
New York, I Love You (2009)

Various news for the Top 5 this past weekend (13-14).

Avatar admissions hit 7m this past weekend. Up about 750,000 for the entire week.

Oceans hit 1.8b yen, or about 20/21m after 4 weeks. Looks good for 3b yen, or mid 30m.

Ototo (About Her Brother/Younger Brother) hit 1m admissions (in 13 days) before this past weekend, and in admissions it's ranked above Valentine's Day which supposedly opened to about $1.5m, so it looks like Ototo either saw a tiny single digit drop, stayed flat, or slightly increased to have beat it. The film closes the Berlin Film Festival, so the aftermath of that event could boost it even farther. Total after this past weekend should be around $12/13m I believe. Looks like a total over 2b, or low 20's won't be much trouble.

Valentine's Day reportedly grossed an est. $1.5m on 288 screens.

Kôshônin: The Movie opened to about 100m yen, or just over $1m with 83,000 admissions. Toei expects the film to finish a little above 1b yen, or $11m.

Feb 13-14, 2010


1. Avatar Fox Int'l $5,623,472 8 639 $8,800 -12 $121,621,223
2. Oceans GAGA $1,528,860 4 302 $5,062 -38 $19,704,119
3. Valentine's Day Walt Disney Int'l $1,213,228 1 288 $4,213 0 $1,507,749
4. The Negotiator The Movie TOEI $1,118,418 1 303 $3,691 0 $2,184,179
5. Younger Brother Shochiku $1,034,914 3 303 $3,416 -33 $12,358,951
6. Invictus Warner Bros Int'l $1,001,194 2 319 $3,139 -31 $4,749,448
7. Golden Slumber Toho $995,217 3 307 $3,242 -31 $8,421,079
8. Vanishment of Haruhi Suzumiya, The Warner Bros Int'l $566,802 2 24 $23,617 -43 $2,749,895
9. Paranormal Activity Presidio Corporation $532,699 3 160 $3,329 -27 $4,394,411
10. Sayonara Itsuka Asmik Ace $530,598 4 180 $2,948 -33 $9,437,254


Estimates were pretty off this week all around. Shinkenger Vs Goonger which was ranked 8th in admissions didn't even make the Top 10, while The Vanishment of Haruhi Suzumiya (still pulling in a massive PTA) remained in the Top 10 despite not being in the Top 10 in admissions. That normally only happens with a film that's ranked 10th. And films 3-5 all changed positions.

I suppose Valentine's Day messed with estimates since women only give men gifts on Valentine's Day in Japan. It's the men's turn in March on White Day. So maybe men got discount prices (similar to Women's Day) which changed estimates quite a bit.

Avatar grossed an est $4.6m (-20%) in it's 9th weekend to raise it's total to an est. $131.9m after 9 weeks.

After 9 Weeks, and as usual, no Princess Mononoke or Titanic (yet) data.

Spirited Away - $168m ($5.8m weekend)
Howl's Moving Castle - $154.6m ($3.4m weekend)
Harry Potter 1 - $134.5m (avg. of week 8 and 10)
Avatar - $131.9m ($4.6m weekend)
Harry Potter 2 - $129.7m ($2.3m weekend)
Bayside Shakedown 2 -$129.6m ($3.1m weekend)
Ponyo - $128.6m ($2.8m weekend)


Top 20 in USD




Top 20 in Yen




Avatar added about Y1b for Week 9, or about $10m. One of the bigger drops (though it's not really that big) it's seen here, but still very, very impressive.

So, Avatar is probably a lock for $160 million at this point with a shot at $180 million.

Yeah, $160m is happening. It should be up against Ponyo for the No.4 spot on the all-time USD chart in the end.

After 5 weeks, $75m
+16.9m
After 6 weeks, $91.9m
+16.1m
After 7 weeks, $108m
+13.6m
After 8 weeks, $121.6m
+10.3m
After 9 weeks, $131.9m est.

I was thinking it'd make closer to $12m for about $133/134m or so. Coraline might have dent it slightly, but it couldn't have been much since Coraline doesn't look to have opened much above $1m, if that.

I was going with: 121.6+11.5+9.5+8+7+5.5+4.5+3.5+2.5+2, $175m, going on to finish close to $180m.

It might not experience some of those holds now. I doubt it matches my week 10 total of 9.5m now having made just over 10m in week 9, so might have to scale some of those weeks back a little bit.

Saru Lock: The Movie and Percy Jackson open this week also, and they both could receive a good amount of potential Avatar screens. I know Saru Lock is being released by Toho (largest distributor), so it won't have any trouble getting screens, and as expected is going nationwide at least.

This year's Berlin Film Festival was pretty good for Japanese films:





Caterpillar won't be released until August, but Younger Brother (it's already been holding very well and will clear $20m) might receive a small boost.

Feb 20-21, 2010 Admission Rankings:

1 1 Avatar Fox 9
2 2 Oceans GAGA 5
3 5 Younger Brother Shochiku 4
4 NEW It's Complicated Toho Towa 1
5 NEW The Fallin Angel Kadokawa 1
6 4 The Negotiator The Movie Toei 2
7 6 Invictus WB 3
8 7 Golden Slumber Toho 4
9 NEW Coraline GAGA 1
10 - Shinkenger Vs Goonger Toei 4

Shinkenger Vs Goonger may not be in the top 10 in yen or USD. Last week it was 8th in admissions, but didn't make the Top 10. So being 10th this week probably means it's not going to make it again.

It's Complicated, according to screendaily, grossed an est. $1.3m (probably over the 3day since it opened on a Friday, same with Coraline), but the 2day figure it probably around $1m. So this means Oceans and Younger Brother are looking at another strong week when numbers come in in a couple days. Maybe some increases even.

Valentine's Day saw a decent opening last weekend (No.3 debut), but completely falls out of the top 10 this week (unless it replaces Shinkenger Vs Goonger). May not even get a multiplier of 3. That's pretty poor, and very unusual.

This weeks openers:

26th
Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief (2010)

27th
Pour elle (2008)
Saru lock (2010)
Bakjwi (2009)
8 Millimeter (2010)


Percy Jackson should do fairly well, but I wouldn't expect anything big.



Bakjwi was a well received Korean film last year, and shared the Jury Prize at Cannes with Fish Tank (which you've probably seen mentioned at the BAFTAS and such).



Saru Lock: The Movie is based on the manga/tv show drama being released by Toho, so it'll likely do well. The tv show genre is at it's peak right now.


I don't know much about 8 Millimeter, but it's one of the feature new releases on joyuu, so it'll probably do well, too.

Bakjwi (Thirst) is a decent horror flick from the director of Oldboy.

Oldboy is a good film. I didn't enjoy it quite as much as most seem to, but it's good. I probably liked Sympathy for Mr. Vengeance and Sympathy for Lady Vengeance more. I'll probably see Thirst eventually.

Hmm, I'm looking back at past years on BOM, seeing how previous films to sequels this year performed, and I came across this:

3 2 The Last Samurai $1,370,216 -16.4% 284 -16 $4,825 $119,268,595 13

After week 13, BOM no longer tracked it (and have it's total at $119.3m). The following weekend, there were 5 openers, but The Last Samurai would have needed an 85% or greater drop to not make the top 10. And I know it didn't drop that much or suddenly lost all of it's theaters.... I bet it finished around $130m.

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Anyway, I was checking how the Umizaru films performed since Umizaru 3 is being released on September 18th.



As is the case with most hit films in Japan, the film was based on the tv drama series which was based on the popular manga.

The first film released in 2004 grossed $15.5m. Which at the time was quite good. Local films only accounted for 37.5% of the yearly box office that year, and now it's near 60%.

The sequel, released in 2006, was quite huge finishing 5th for the year grossing $58.4m (7.10b yen), second biggest local film slightly behind Ghibli's Tales of Earthsea. Nearly a 400% increase over the original.

Umizaru 3 wasn't originally planned until a fan petition, and requests on the official site, convinced Fuji TV and Toho to do begin production in 2008. So considering how much the series has grown since the first film, and how many requests Fuji TV and Toho received from fans to release another movie, there's a great deal of anticipation and expectations for Umizaru 3 this fall, and it's definitely a film to keep an eye on as it's likely to dominate the fall.

I haven't watched the first two films, nor have I read the manga or watched the drama series, but a first look at the film was released not too long ago, with a trailer for the third film (seems to start at 2:39) following what I'm guessing is footage of what led up to the third film. It doesn't look too bad though, it actually looks quite good. For those interested,

I got Bakwji and was thinking of seeing it yesterday. But I went with Dare to see what's all that WOKJ hoopla about.

Oceans is probably heading for a $30+ million total. It is also doing very well in France and is opening in Germany this weekend (where it will do big business too).

According to BOM Earth made $77 million overseas. Something's telling me that this is an underestimation, though (man, BOM is really not very reliable for overseas box-office!). In any case...Oceans is looking for more. It overperformed in France ($15.3 million after three weeks!) and is looking at a great number in Japan too ($30+ million). It'll outdo Earth overseas and worldwide. We might see as much as $100-120 million overseas for it.

Oceans will clear $30m easily, it should be around $24m tomorrow, and it has a great shot at $40m (though I think it'll finish around 37/38). I'm wanting to see it.

Eiga's Most Popular Films (2/24/2010):

1. It's Complicated
2. Avatar
3. The Fallin Angel
4. Invictus
5. Bayside Shakedown 3
6. Sayonara Itsuka
7. Paranormal Activity
8. Golden Slumber
9. Valentine's Day
10. Oceans

Percy Jackson is so going to bomb in Japan.

It should do okay. The film does have decent online buzz.

It should do okay. The film does have decent online buzz.

Now that most films this summer have posters, trailers, etc. I'm going to provide you guys with a brief Summer Preview. Golden Week (last week of April and first week of May where practically everyone in the country is on holiday) kicks off the season, but Golden Week is going to have a few big hits released a week or two early this year.


April 17th



Nodame Cantabile Part II will be released a week before Golden Week begins. Nodame Cantabile is based on the popular manga turned tv dramedy romance series. Nodame Cantabile Part I (opening in other parts of Asia later this month) was released last December, and to date, has grossed 4b yen (or about $44m). The film was well-received and buzz around Part II is really beginning to pick up, especially after the trailer was released last week, which can can be found here: http://www.fujitv.co.jp/movie/index.html Click on "3" for the trailer.





Alice in Wonderland also opens a week before Golden Week on April 17th. I haven't read anything about Disney wanting to limit the run and all that (to be honest, it'd be very stupid in Japan since it'll have plenty left after 12 weeks), so for the time being, it's not a problem. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory grossed almost $50m in 2005, and considering Corpse Bride did decent, and Sweeney Todd grossed $20m (No.1 for 2/3 weeks), it should be safe to assume a big gross coming for Alice and friends.



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April 29th



And officially kicking off the Summer, opening on Golden Week, will be Yazima Beauty Salon The Movie: Reaching a Nevada Dream. The film describes the "history" of the band as they win a talent contest and then travel to Japan to find Margaret's husband and the girls' father Tokujirō.

Trailer -


*their music is very catchy*


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May 29th

Junji Sakamoto's Zatoichi: The Last, a blind master swordsman attempts to lead a quiet life with his wife but he is provoked back into battle. http://www.the-last-1.jp/
___________________________________________________________________________________

June 12th



The story begins with Sekiuchi (Kitamura Soichiro), boss of the Sannokai, a huge organized crime syndicate controlling the entire Kanto region, issuing a stern warning to his lieutenant Kato (Miura Tomokazu) and right-hand man Ikemoto (Kunimura Jun), head of the Ikemoto-gumi. Kato orders Ikemoto to bring the unassociated Murase-gumi gang in line, and he immediately passes the task on to his subordinate Otomo (Beat Takeshi), who runs his own crew. The tricky jobs that no-one wants to do always end up in Otomo’s lap…

The trailer for Outrage:


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July 3rd



Bayside Shakedown 3 is the sequel to the biggest local live-action film in History (2nd only behind Titanic in overall live-action), and promotion for the film is really beginning to pick up. Expect several updates in the future. It's going to be the huge one ($150m or more likely) this summer. They put the original cast back together, and several who haven't made their debut on the big screen yet, which is really cool.

___________________________________________________________________________________

July 10th



Hideyuki Hirayama‘s Hisshiken Torisashi, the latest in a long line of film adaptations of stories by the late Shuhei Fujisawa. This particular film is based on a short story taken from Fujisawa’s “Hidden Blade” series, a compilation of stories which involve a character (not always the protagonist) mastering a secret sword technique to be unleashed on his enemies later on.

Etsushi Toyokawa stars as a skilled swordsman named Kanemi Sanzaemon who kills the mistress of a powerful daimyo for abusing her political influence within the fictional Unasaka domain. This eventually leads to a violent confrontation in which he utilizes a “bird-catching” sword fighting technique. Meanwhile, his niece Satoo (Chizuru Ikewaki)—who is not blood related—harbors a secret love for him. Trailer can be found here: http://www.torisashi.com/





Pokemon the 13th Movie: Phantom Ruler: Zoroark will introduce fans to the first pokemon of the 5th generation of games which make their debut in the fall. Filming started in Amsterdam from July 2009. The movie creators travelled to the location for ideas and inspiration in an effort to create a unique environment for the film. I'd expect another $50m+ here.

Trailer:


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July 17th




Surely Someday is another film based on a manga turned tv drama. I'm not sure of it's potential yet, but it's getting some solid buzz.

Trailer:








Ghibli's latest, Karigurashi no Arrietty (The Borrower Arrietty) opens. The film was planned by Miyazaki a few years back and will be directed by a new comer who worked on Miyazaki's films last decade. The previous non-Miyazaki Ghibli film (Tales of Earthsea) grossed a little over $60m, but was met with a bit of a mixed reception. I expect Arrietty to do a bit better.

Teaser:

Feb. 20-21, 2010

1. Avatar Fox Int'l $4,415,738 9 617 $7,157 -21 $129,543,968
2. Oceans GAGA $1,112,811 5 302 $3,685 -27 $21,444,032
3. It's Complicated Kadokawa-Herald $897,661 1 286 $3,139 0 $1,183,276
4. Fallen Angel, The Kadokawa-Herald $895,600 1 154 $5,816 0 $895,600
5. Younger Brother Shochiku $813,741 4 303 $2,686 -21 $14,910,712
6. The Negotiator The Movie TOEI $748,043 2 303 $2,469 -33 $4,103,069
7. Coraline GAGA $695,036 1 127 $5,473 0 $792,242
8. Invictus Warner Bros Int'l $668,485 3 319 $2,096 -33 $6,342,889
9. Golden Slumber Toho $660,158 4 307 $2,150 -34 $9,841,601
10. Valentine's Day Walt Disney Int'l $471,487 2 288 $1,637 -61 $3,011,479



Estimates were a little high on everything again.

Avatar added $8m to it's total over the week, for about a 40% drop week to week (estimates did have it with a 25% drop). It's by far it's largest drop (Coraline may have been the reason for this), but still impressive.

After 9 weeks,

Spirited Away - $168m ($5.8m weekend)
Howl's Moving Castle - $154.6m ($3.4m weekend)
Harry Potter 1 - $134.5m (avg. of week 8 and 10)
Harry Potter 2 - $129.7m ($2.3m weekend)
Bayside Shakedown 2 -$129.6m ($3.1m weekend)
Avatar - $129.5mm ($4.4m weekend)
Ponyo - $128.6m ($2.8m weekend)

Top 20 in USD




Top 20 in Yen




Oceans continues doing very well, but is also down a little from estimates. The film should finish in the mid 30's. Earth grossed $25m for comparison.

Decent debuts for all the openers.

Darn the difference between Potter 3 and Potter 2 is very huge. Japanese people apparently do not see any other movie

BTW Corpse love your Code Geass Avatar. Both the series were mind-blowing, I guess you also liked them. The favorite is no doubt Lelouch and I actually hated Suzaku in most of the series

I'm not finished with the series yet (almost finished with Part I), but I do love it very much. It's a nice change from the ninja type anime/manga I've been watching/reading lately. At first I didn't think I'd enjoy Code Geass because I don't really like mech anime, Gundam for example, but thankfully Code Geass doesn't focus too much on them. And when the characters are in their Knightmares, there is still a lot of focus on the characters rather than the mechs. I'm also glad Code Geass is set in the present rather than in the future.

Right now my favorite character is probably Lelouch, but he did just use the Japanese Liberation Front as bait and seems headed down a path of "carnage". I don't want him to turn into a Light Yagami (Kira) from Death Note. While Light is a great character, and I do like him, I was never on his side. But he can't even compare to Aizen from Bleach now. I won't spoil it since I know you don't read the manga, but fuck is Aizen such a hax annoying character now. I don't think I've ever hated a character so much. So as long as Lelouch avoids the God Complex, he'll remain my favorite.

Suzaku is okay, but I kinda love and hate him at the same time right now.

I also like Cornelia. It's pretty rare to find a strong female character like her in animes, and I love how she is usually on the frontline despite being Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Army. I especially liked when Lelouch (Zero) outsmarted her in the mountains, and even though she was surrounded while battling Karen she wasn't going to be captured or go down. And even when Suzaku came to her aid, she was still going to go after Lelouch.