Thanks Kanroji.

Corpse,
Shin Ultraman is going to open in 4DX next Friday. How popular is the format in Japan and do you see this having any effect at the box office?

It will expand later on coming weeks.....

06/11 : IMAX
06/25 : 4D (4DX &MX4D)
07/01 : Dolby Cinemas

So, overall count will be 400 (371 Standard + 39 IMAX)

https://natalie.mu/comic/news/478360

Quite popular.

Expanding to the premium formats (IMAX, 4DX/MX4D, Dolby Cinema) after opening is also a good way to get repeat viewings to drive a film's box-office returns, too. Most of the fans will see a film in the first couple weeks, usually (some still wait for holiday periods due to school/work), but some will also go back to see it again in a different format when it becomes available later on.

Kanroji has DBS's expansion plans above as an example. The biggest DBS fans will see it opening weekend/first week, then go back again when it opens in 4DX/MX4D two weeks later, and likely again in Dolby Cinema the following week. If it opened in all of them the first week, it'd be subject to losing them to another film after a few weeks and limit its repeat viewing opportunities since Japan is a backloaded market.

This also allows more films to enjoy the various formats at various points in their runs.

Very strong first set of weekdays for Top Gun 2. I'm estimating that Mon.-Fri. came in around ¥950 million ($7.3 million) / 610,000 admissions, which is about 15% above its opening weekend.

That'd bring its eight-day total to around ¥2.11 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.36 million admissions.

Roughly a 50:50 earnings ratio (weekend:weekday) is where you want to be in the market for maximum gross potential, so 47:53 is a good place to be right now. Means it's appealing to the weekday crowd (seniors, women) and weekend crowd (families, students, men). Going above/below 55 either way usually indicates weakness with some key demographic.

If we go with a 20% second weekend hold (10-20% is expected for your standard leggy performers in their second weekends, ~8-10x), it'll be around ¥2.76 billion ($21.5 million) / 1.78 million admissions after ten days. This would pretty much guarantee a total above ¥5 billion, becoming Hollywood's first film in 2.5 years to reach the blockbuster milestone. But it should suggest something "easily" higher, likely ¥6 billion or over ¥7 billion.

Now, the bad news regarding the dollar amount: The exchange rate has worsened this week after seeing a very, very slight bounce-back, and is back to 2002 levels again. Won't take much more and it'll be the most unfavorable it's been since 1998. So, the USD ($) figures are going to look increasingly low versus any year over the past 20-25 years.

Might be -15% or better in admissions even, pending sunday. Excellent drop.

Sun-Sun drops are *usually* better than Sat-Sat drops for films in their second weekends, so dropping around ~17% versus last Saturday could set up a sub-15% weekend drop.

Either way, it's looking good to drop 20% or likely less, which is a good sign for a long run. Getting that 10-20% second weekend drop is important since it already displayed strength on the weekdays (which were higher than its opening weekend). And many standard leggy films each year (think multipliers between 8-10) have second weekend holds in that range. Sometimes films can be strong over the weekdays but see bigger weekend drops if they skew too old/too female. Doesn't appear to be the case here, as it delivered strong weekdays and the strong second weekend.

I think we can expect up to ¥7-8 billion (~$55-60 million) here. (Yes, yes, the exchange rate completely blows and would have been $10-20 million more before March.)

It sucks about the ER, but it's nice to see some successes either way. This is quietly shaping up to be a solid year for hollywood.

There's a decent chance it'll be Hollywood's biggest film of 2022 (and since 2019). It's going to outgross Fantastic Beasts 3 to claim the "biggest Hollywood film since 2019" title easily enough, and I don't see any Hollywood film on the schedule that has potential to beat it if it does up to ¥7/8 billion. (Note: this isn't accounting for Avatar 2.)

I think Jurassic World 3, at best, will remain on par with Jurassic World 2, but there's a pretty good chance it sees a decline. The second film dropped 16%, so something similar wouldn't be surprising and is probably expected (perhaps more given the second's reception). A similar decline would put the third film right around ¥7 billion, which Top Gun 2 is probably setting itself up to reach/exceed.

How long will TGM stay No. 1?

If I'm not mistaken there are only two US movies with 3 weeks on top (F9 and Sing 2) and TENET with 4 weeks on top in the 2020s...

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will likely dethrone it next weekend. It was suppose to open back in April for Golden Week, but the studio got hacked just weeks before then which pushed it back. Top Gun: Maverick might regain the #1 spot for another week or two before the big July films though.

And your data is correct. Hollywood has really, really struggled in Japan since the pandemic (but 2022 is recovering!). (Although a lot of it is their own doing, namely Disney, for getting their own films boycotted by theaters due to streaming.)

Among the July release, Corpse, which one will shape up better, Light Year or Minion 2? Can we compare Light Year performance with that of Toy Story? or should ¥5B is already a big hit for Pixar (??)

On the other hand, Paramount reporting Top Gun: Maverick Numbers at $16.6M until Friday.

I'm expecting Minions 2 to perform similarly as Sing 2 (both their predecessors earned nearly the same, so both sequels earning nearly the same makes sense), or a little better with the prime summer release date. Let's say... ¥3.5/4 billion. I don't expect it to go much lower/higher than that.

Lightyear is trickier. I don't think it'll pull Toy Story numbers, and would bet on it finishing closer to the standard Pixar release (~¥5 billion). But it has been 2 years since the last Pixar theatrical release (3 years under normal conditions), too. I could see that potentially helping it. Not to mention that Disney animation in general hasn't been given a proper release in 2.5 years (Raya and the Last Dragon was boycotted from the start by theaters since it was available on Disney+, and Encanto received a subdued release and was dropped by major theater chains when it went on Disney+), so audiences haven't been able to really see them in theaters in forever.

So... if Japan is still one of Disney's best markets for their animated features, Lightyear is going to be the first film in 2.5 years to test it. But they need to keep it off Disney+ for *at least* 2 months from its Japan debut. (3 months would be more ideal, but I know they won't wait until October for the Disney+ release.)

I'm concerned they'll release Lightyear on Disney+ in August (~2 months from its US debut), which will really, really hurt it in Japan. Theaters will boycott it, and it'll miss out on the second half of summer vacation and/or Obon Festival even.

Thanks Corpse for covering up! I was expecting the same for Light Year but assuming it a solo, ¥5B is a clean victory. It's good that Disney/Pixar will likely be testing their potential in Summer. I guess it's Pixar 1st Theatrical release since Toy Story 4 (right?). Hopefully, big summer is coming!! better than last year!!

Missed that Disney+ part : so we are in trouble. Hoping some luck now

Onward received a theatrical release in August 2020, and while the box-office was recovering well enough at that point (theaters began reopening in mid-June 2020, then all reopened in mid-July 2020), it was already on Disney+ and bombed.

Should be a good, steady summer season. I don't believe we'll have anything approach uber-blockbuster levels (¥10 billion), but there are many films with ¥2-4 billion potential, and several with ¥5 billion, so if everything delivers, it'll still be a strong period.

Here are my rough projections at this time for films I think will do ¥1 billion+:

July & August Releases:

¥7-8 billion - Jurassic World: Dominion [A bit of a decline from the second film; slight chance to remain stable.]
¥5-6 billion - One Piece Film Red [Stable film franchise, shouldn't stray (much) from this range.]
¥4-6 billion - Lightyear [If it doesn't go on Disney+ before mid/late-August.]
¥4-6 billion - Kingdom 2 [Might match/beat its predecessor (¥5.73 billion), but slipping manga sales might result in a decline.]
¥3-4 billion - Minions 2 [Similar decline as Sing 2 < Sing.]
¥2-4 billion - Even If This Love Disappears From the World Tonight [Big romantic film of the summer.]
¥1-2 billion - My Boyfriend in Orange [Smaller romantic film of the summer.]
¥1-2 billion - Tang [Warner Bros.'s "big" film of the summer; Obon Festival opening.]
¥1-2 billion - Offbeat Cops [Big name actor.]
¥1-1.5 billion - Thor: Love and Thunder [Standard Marvel/DC numbers.]
¥1-1.5 billion - Violence Action [Sony's sole film, so they might push it.]

Note: Summer Vacation begins July 15th; Obon Festival begins August 11th/12th.

If there's a breakout among them, I'd watch Even If This Love Disappears. I'd consider anything over ¥3 billion a breakout, but sometimes these can connect for more if they have a tragic story/ending and are well-received enough. And Tang might be a darkhorse. Don't expect a huge amount from it, but might do a little better than I'm forecasting.

There are a couple ¥1 billion contenders, such as Haw or DC League of Super-Pets, but I wouldn't predict over ¥1 billion with confidence right now. If Super-Pets can capitalize on that Secret Life of Pets (Illumination) appeal, then it could surprise a bit, but it's safer to bet against that happening.

So without the ER change TGM could have been striving for $80m here? That sucks.

What's the average ticket price that DBS Super Hero should be getting?

Just so I can make rough calculations with Mimorin upon release.

Should be ~1300 yen like previous db films

Could go a little higher since the urban locations are accounting for more of the sales recently. I'd use ¥1350 as a base for making predictions next weekend.

Yep! The Yen lost 12/13% versus the Dollar in just 2-3 months (Feb-Apr.) and hasn't recovered (actually gotten worse).

The US economy has become crazy strong while Japan's has been largely stagnant for ~30 years, so it's really feeling the impact here. Not to mention that interest rates are going up in the US, which will likely make it even more unfavorable.

The government has warned against the Yen weakening too much, citing going beyond 130 to the dollar (which is has a few times and currently is again now) as a signal they will have to intervene to prevent it weakening much further. We'll see how that goes...

Paramount reporting $5.3M /$21.9M (2nd Weekend)

It's obvious that JPY-USD conversion will be tricky, I don't know what E.R. they are using so I think it should be above ¥2.8B

Very strong second weekend, indeed. Down 15% or a little less. Combined with the strong dailies (higher than its opening weekend), and it's very likely set itself up for an impressively long run.

It even held strong enough to land on my cut off to make the Biggest Second Weekends Chart despite its opening being nowhere near the Opening Weekend Charts. I'll have that shared soon since I imagine it'll appear on subsequent Biggest (3rd, 4th, etc.) Weekend Charts in the future, too, likely climbing up each as it goes.

Corpse, Any chance for Top Gun to make a play for 10B?

Yeah, there's a chance. Can't really rule much out for most films in the market after just ten days. Ten-day totals are often just 20-30% of a film's final total in the market (sometimes less, sometimes a bit more depending on the film / month of release), for example. Almost every film on the chart above more than tripled their nine/ten-day totals (some earned 4-7x their two week totals).

Given the data we have so far, I believe ¥7/8 billion is likely/doable, and would still be incredibly strong, mind you. But there's no reason to rule out more right now, but also no reason to expect more either. Japan usually takes quite some time (several weeks/months) to determine where a film is likely to land.

Good news it has a long theatrical window(120 days even in domestic). So there is no distraction from early streaming release.