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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (11/13-14); Charts Update
Don't forget the Arashi film next weekend, either. There is a pretty good chance it flirts with or exceeds ¥1 billion next weekend. It's been close to selling out, if not selling out, all its showings every single day since November 3rd at the 7 Dolby Cinema locations it opened in early. It's been hanging out in the Top 15/20 quite often, sometimes even appearing in the Top 10 at various points through the day, despite playing at just 7 theaters.

I don't want to predict it yet, but as long as all the theaters it's playing in next weekend put it on their biggest screen(s) (incredibly likely), it's going to do some big, big numbers. I'm going to be surprised if it doesn't do 500,000+ admissions next weekend, but think there's potential for a good bit more. (Their last album sold over 1.3 million copies in its first week two years ago.) There's also potential for some surprising legs, too, since it's a perfect film for the fanbase to come out for again and again (Michael Jackson's This Is It, the best comparison here, had surprisingly strong legs, for example.)

Tickets are also going to be very high. The website has them listed at ¥3,300 ($29) for adults and ¥2,200 ($20) for students, so the average ticket price will be significant. And while very high, it's a bargain for a theatrical live concert experience of the biggest band in Japan.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (11/13-14); Charts Update


Arashi 5x20 Anniversary Tour FILM "Record of Memories" is definitely opening above ¥1 billion this upcoming weekend, and possibly a good deal higher since its ticket prices are very high (~73% above the average ticket price).

Of all the theaters that have gone live with their reservations for Friday, every single stage greeting showing and the live broadcast showings of those stage greetings are already sold out. Every single Dolby Cinema showing is also already sold out (which has been a theme since it opened in Dolby-exclusively back on November 3rd). And the normal showings have begun very nicely, too.

Of the theaters that only have their showings up for Friday and the weekend frame (reservations usually go live on Wednesday), it's receiving the biggest screen, in addition to the second and/or third screens as well.

I'll keep an eye on it throughout the week to get a better idea of how high it's going to go. I think it'll open above Evangelion though, but it might be possible to open above Detective Conan too. Depending on where it ends up, it could be the biggest opening for a live-action film in a REALLY long time (possibly in a decade).

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Nov 22, 2021 11:14 am
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (11/13-14); Charts Update
Damn. That's crazy! Would you say this has potential to knock Evangelion off the 2021 throne, then? An opening stronger than conan and good legs to follow it up (if it does end up going similarly to this is it) would lead to a 10b+ finish. Not in admissions, of course, but gross.


Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (11/13-14); Charts Update
ARASHI: By The Numbers (1999-2019; Hiatus 2020-)

Records Sold - 38 million+
Combined Albums/Singles Sold - 58.8 million (Best Selling Boy Band in Asia History)

DVDs Sold - 10 million+
Best Selling DVD by a Male Artist in Japanese History - 1,002,000 Copies (611,000/391,000 DVD/BR split) for 2020's "Arashi Anniversary Tour 5x20" DVD.

Concert Tickets Sold - 14 million+
Fastest Artist to Sell 10 Million Concert Tickets (17th Active Year)
Most Successful Tour in Japanese History - 2.43 million ticket sold (avg. 48,600 attendees per show) for their "Arashi Anniversary Tour 5x20" in 2019.

Studio Albums - 17
Compilation Albums - 6
Singles - 58
Music Videos - 82
Concert Videos - 24

18 - #1 Albums (Their "5x20 All the Best!!" album was the #1 Album Worldwide in 2019.)
54 - #1 Singles (Of the remaining 4 singles, three ranked #2 and one ranked #3).

-First Artist to have 30 and 40 Consecutive #1 Singles since their debut.
-First Artist in History to Take the Top 2 Spots on the Oricon Yearly Singles Chart.
-5th Artist in History to Take the Top 2 Spots on the Oricon Weekly Singles Chart (2008). No band had achieved this since 1989.
-Record 9-Time Highest Yearly Earning Musical Artist in Japan. (Set a New Record in 2019 with ¥20.33 billion (~$190 million) earned in revenue.)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (11/13-14); Charts Update
JustLurking wrote:
Damn. That's crazy! Would you say this has potential to knock Evangelion off the 2021 throne, then? An opening stronger than conan and good legs to follow it up (if it does end up going similarly to this is it) would lead to a 10b+ finish. Not in admissions, of course, but gross.


I'm not expecting it to... but let's not rule it out. It really depends on the legs, of course. There could be an extreme rush factor here, and its legs are going to be determined by how many times the fanbase comes back for repeat viewings. And while the biggest fans certainly don't mind paying the high ticket prices over and over again, they could be a deterrent for repeat viewings for more casual fans. (Although they could always lower them, I suppose, later on.)

Michael Jackson's This Is It did have very strong legs, presumably from fans coming out again and again, so there is some precedent here for this to happen with Arashi. The film has also been playing very strongly at the 7 Dolby Cinemas since November 3rd (it's even having its best week right now!), so that's encouraging too.

Some rough estimates have it earning around/over ¥300 million (~$2.5-$3 million) from just those 7 theaters so far since November 3rd.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Actuals (11/20-21)
Weekend Actuals (11/20-21)
01 (01) ¥123,095,350 ($1.08 million), -20%, ¥640,703,590 ($5.6 million), Sumikko Gurashi: The Magical Child of the Blue Moonlit Night (Asmik Ace) WK3
02 (04) ¥x92,027,710 ($807,000), -22%, ¥1,083,849,520 ($9.5 million), And, the Baton Was Passed (Warner Bros.) WK4
03 (02) ¥x82,659,780 ($725,000), -46%, ¥996,726,600 ($8.7 million), Eternals (Disney) WK3
04 (---) ¥x78,000,000 ($684,000), 0, ¥106,528,150 ($0.9 million), The Mole Song: The Final (Toho) NEW
05 (05) ¥x74,506,250 ($653,000), -30%, ¥929,194,350 ($8.2 million), What Did You Eat Yesterday? (Toho) WK3
06 (03) ¥x71,449,460 ($626,000), -47%, ¥1,095,251,413 ($9.7 million), Sword Art Online Progressive: Aria of a Starless Night (Aniplex) WK4
07 (06) ¥x45,375,690 ($398,000), -33%, ¥935,244,210 ($8.2 million), I Don't Have Any Money Left in My Retirement Account! (Toei) WK4
08 (07) ¥x26,902,950 ($236,000), -25%, ¥2,583,425,690 ($23.0 million), 007: No Time to Die (Toho-Towa) WK8
09 (08) ¥x23,721,710 ($208,000), -32%, ¥525,000,020 ($4.6 million), Tropical-Rouge! Precure: Snow Princess and Miraculous Ring (Toei) WK5
10 (09) ¥x19,875,600 ($174,000), -40%, ¥1,080,788,950 ($9.4 million), Baragaki: Unbroken Samurai (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK6


Another poor weekend, largely due to the third Mole Song movie bombing pretty spectacularly.

>Sumikko Gurashi: The Magical Child of the Blue Moonlit Night achieves a second weekend at #1 (it rose to #1 last weekend), delivering another very good hold. There isn't really anything for young children right now (although the audience over its opening weekend wasn't that young), so it's likely benefitting from the open market there. And the film is performing so well right now, that Asmik Ace is even giving it an expansion on December 3rd. Expansions for films already in wide release, even if it's barely wide like this one, are very rare in the market. It might have legged it out to ¥1 billion on its own, but it's very likely to get above the milestone now with its upcoming expansion.

>Eternals fell hard again, but not surprising. (Remember: Pretty much every Marvel/DC is frontloaded like this in Japan, even well-received/reviewed ones, so it's not the film itself.) But I'm noting it here because it had two different totals reported today; the one I'm using above and a lower one of ¥967 million. I'm using the higher one above because it's from domestic sources, which I'm presuming is the correct one with the lower one being a typo.

>The Mole Song: The Final is a big bomb, one of the biggest non-Disney bombs in awhile. The third, and final, film in the franchise only sold 76,351 admissions over its first three-days on 328 screens. It'll probably struggle to around ¥500 million ($4/5 million), which will be a whopping 65% decline from the second film.

>Sword Art Online Progressive also fell hard, but unsurprising since it only dropped 5% last weekend since it had a giveaway weekend. And, it's expanding to 4DX locations this week (might have another giveaway to go along with it, haven't checked yet), so expect a good/strong hold (possibly an increase) next weekend for it. It's currently on its "roller coaster" weekends as a result, so look forward to unusual weekend holds (high, then low, then high again, and some possible increases, etc.) for awhile. Expect a finish of ¥1.5 billion (pretty sure Aniplex is aiming for that mark.)

>Finally, a number of films either exceeded ¥1 billion or are on the cusp of hitting the milestone this weekend. SAO, And, The Baton Was Passed, Baragaki: Unbroken Samurai all exceeded the mark, while Eternals, I Don't Have Any Money Left in My Retirement Account!, and What Did You Eat Yesterday? are all above ¥900 million now and will break ¥1 billion next week. This recent string of ¥1 billion earners closes out November and 2021 (the box-office/Eiren year) on a pretty good note.

Look forward to this upcoming weekend! Could be in store for one of the biggest opening weekends of the year (Top 3 at a minimum it appears) with Arashi: Anniversary Tour 5x20 "Record of Memories", and there's some strong signs it could break ¥1 billion and then some over its opening, potentially setting it up to be in contention for biggest opening weekend for a live-action film in perhaps as long as a decade.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films 2021
Top Grossing Films: 2021
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10.24 billion ($93.7 million) / 6.70 million [F] - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara)
¥10 billion ↨
¥7.55 billion ($69.6 million) / 5.40 million [F] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Toho)
¥6.52 billion ($59.2 million) / 4.69 million [E] - Belle (Toho)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.45 billion ($40.6 million) / 3.34 million [E] - Tokyo Revengers (Warner Bros.)
¥4.35 billion ($39.9 million) / 3.09 million [F] - Rurouni Kenshin: The Final Chapter - The Final (Warner Bros.)
¥4.03 billion ($38.3 million) / 3.00 million [F] - New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho)
¥3.81 billion ($36.5 million) / 2.83 million [F] - Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More)
¥3.70 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.69 million [66] - Masquerade Night (Toho)
¥3.64 billion ($33.1 million) / 2.40 million [E] - F9: The Fast Saga (Toho-Towa)
¥3.37 billion ($30.8 million) / 2.43 million [E] - My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.78 billion ($26.9 million) / 2.26 million [F] - Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho)
¥2.58 billion ($23.0 million) / 1.79 million [52] - 007: No Time to Die (Toho-Towa)
¥2.50 billion ($22.8 million) / 1.77 million [F] - Rurouni Kenshin: The Final Chapter - The Beginning (Warner Bros.)
¥2.47 billion ($23.6 million) / 1.79 million [E] - Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho)
¥2.21 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.09 million [F] - Mobile Suit Gundam: Hathaway (Shochiku)
¥2.16 billion ($20.5 million) / 0.79 million [F] - Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥2.01 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.56 million [F] - The Promised Neverland (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.90 billion ($18.3 million) / 1.37 million [F] - Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.)
¥1.88 billion ($17.2 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Godzilla vs. Kong (Toho)
¥1.77 billion ($17.1 million) / 1.50 million [F] - Pokemon: Coco (Toho)
¥1.71 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.44 million [E] - Crayon Shin-chan: Shrouded in Mystery! Flowers of Tenkazu Academy (Toho)
¥1.53 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.10 million [E] - Character (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.5 million) / 1.01 million [E] - The Fable II (Shochiku)
¥1.23 billion ($11.5 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 0.88 million [E] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) *Compilation*
¥1.17 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.91 million [E] - Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho)
¥1.10 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.73 million [23] - Sword Art Online Progressive: Aria of a Starless Night (Aniplex)
¥1.08 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.82 million [24] - And, the Baton Was Passed (Warner Bros.)
¥1.08 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.81 million [38] - Baragaki: Unbroken Samurai (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥1.01 billion ($9.3 million) / 0.88 million [E] - A Morning of Farewell (Toei)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.79 million [E] - Kaguya-sama: Love is War Final (Toho)

¥1 billion ↑
¥996.7 million ($8.7 million) / 0.63 million [17] - Eternals (Disney)
¥974.0 million ($8.9 million) / 0.76 million [E] - Honey Lemon Soda (Shin-Toho)
¥960.0 million ($8.8 million) / 0.63 million [E] - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney)
¥935.2 million ($8.2 million) / 0.75 million [23] - I Don't Have Any Money Left in My Retirement Account! (Toei)
¥929.2 million ($8.2 million) / 0.69 million [19] - What Did You Eat Yesterday? (Toho)
¥900.0 million ($8.2 million) / 0.60 million [E] - Black Widow (Disney)
¥845.5 million ($8.0 million) / 0.64 million [E] - Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace)
¥838.7 million ($7.7 million) / 0.66 million [E] - Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho)
¥821.2 million ($7.5 million) / 0.58 million [E] - Jungle Cruise (Disney)
¥817.2 million ($7.5 million) / 0.61 million [E] - Signal: The Movie (Toho)
¥808.1 million ($7.2 million) / 0.63 million [E] - In the Wake (Shochiku)
¥789.5 million ($7.3 million) / 0.65 million [E] - Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.)
¥782.5 million ($7.1 million) / 0.57 million [E] - Last of the Wolves (Toei)
¥741.7 million ($6.6 million) / 0.59 million [E] - Laws of the Universe: The Age of Elohim (Nikkatsu)
¥729.9 million ($6.4 million) / 0.46 million [38] - Dune (Warner Bros.)
¥670.0 million ($6.1 million) / 0.51 million [E] - Hell's Garden (Warner Bros.)
¥640.7 million ($5.6 million) / 0.52 million [17] - Sumikko Gurashi: The Magical Child of the Blue Moonlit Night (Asmik Ace)
¥638.1 million ($6.2 million) / 0.49 million [E] - Tengaramon (Giggly Box)
¥635.5 million ($5.8 million) / 0.49 million [E] - Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku)
¥634.9 million ($6.0 million) / 0.47 million [E] - Jukai Village (Toei)
¥614.9 million ($5.6 million) / 0.50 million [E] - Beautiful Lure - A Modern Tale of "Painted Skin" (Nikkatsu)
¥585.0 million ($5.4 million) / 0.41 million [E] - Free! The Final Stroke - Part 1 (Shochiku)
¥579.1 million ($5.3 million) / 0.39 million [E] - The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)
¥546.5 million ($5.2 million) / 0.44 million [E] - Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.)
¥534.7 million ($5.1 million) / 0.37 million [E] - Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.)
¥525.0 million ($4.6 million) / 0.43 million [30] - Tropical-Rouge! Precure: Snow Princess and Miraculous Ring (Toei)

¥500 million ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
So Eternals will reach a billion in the end. Great to hear for Arashi as well, the JP BO is due for a breakout.


Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:35 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
What's the chance of the Arashi film getting close to or surpassing Eva 3+1 to become the biggest film of the year?


Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
I don't really have a good idea on what will happen with it after this weekend. It's earned an absurd about of money already from just Dolby Cinema (more below), and this upcoming weekend is going to be huge (especially Friday).

The film is the fastest selling film in Dolby Cinema history, with all showings every single day being sold out since November 3rd (and though this week, up until at least November 28th or December 2nd, depending where the Dolby Cinema exec. in the article went up to).

This has resulted in the film selling OVER 400,000 tickets from just the 7 Dolby Cinema locations in the country since November 3rd. (NOTE: This includes ticket sales since November 3rd through this upcoming weekend/week, and any dates beyond that.)

https://getnews.jp/archives/3168357

Adult tickets for the Dolby Cinema showings are ¥3,800 ($33) for adults and students are ¥2,700 ($24). Let's just average this to ¥3,250 ($28) to get a rough estimate on what it's earned so far from just the 7 Dolby Cinema locations:

It's earned over ¥1 billion already, and likely around ¥1.3 billion (~$11/12 million) or so. From just 7 theaters. Before it goes wide this weekend.

56 (81%) of Toho's Cinemas are participating in the stage greetings/live-broadcast showings on Friday, too, a new record. There are at least two of these viewings at each theater on Friday (one early morning at 8am, one evening around 7pm), and they're either all sold out or at ~85/90% sold out right now.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:43 am
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The Dark Knight

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
Could it actually come close to DS's OW (say 75%) at least in revenue?


Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
NO!!!!!!!!


Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:05 pm
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
Jack Sparrow wrote:
NO!!!!!!!!


Uh...calm down? :P


Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
Cynosure wrote:
Could it actually come close to DS's OW (say 75%) at least in revenue?


I don't think so. It's going to be difficult for anything to ever do more than half of Demon Slayer's OW. It basically doubled the old records if you exclude previews from the early/mid-00s films. (Even its third weekend was bigger, far bigger, than any old OW record, remember.)

But, things are looking at least *doable* for Arashi to achieve the biggest OW for a live-action film in perhaps a decade, if not longer (in revenue). The only worry I have is that Friday is going to be so frontloaded from the record stage greetings/live-broadcasts, that the weekend frame (Saturday/Sunday) could be a bit deflated. All the Dolby showings are sold out through the weekend, and into next week (and presumably well into December), but those stage greeting/live-broadcasts exclusive to Friday are going to really, really boost it for that day.

The 3-day weekend (Friday-Sunday) is going to have potential for some record opportunities for sure. It won't break Demon Slayer's 3-day of course, but it's going to be really, really high.

(Basically we just have to exclude DS from BO discussions since it was so abnormally massive, that it's not really mathematically possible to be matched or approached.)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
JustLurking wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
NO!!!!!!!!


Uh...calm down? :P


:D no!!!!! :P


Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
Lightyear (Pixar) is opening in July (likely the second or third weekend). I don't think it had a release date yet in Japan, but a day-and-date release in mid-June would have likely been too much of a hinderance to overcome (four weeks away from Summer vacation, more susceptible to harsher screen/showtime cuts from the July/August releases).

A July release, and an occasional August release, is traditional for Disney/Pixar in Japan, but their string of day-and-date releases in the market the past year or so (including Encanto this weekend with November being similarly rough like June for young skewing films for the same reasons) suggested a possible negative change. Thankfully, that's not the case.

Now just don't give it a theatrical window of 30 or 45 days. (ESPECIALLY if that window is based on its US release in June, good lord...) From its July date, a 30 day window would be still be really idiotic since it'd be pulled around Obon Festival, one of the three biggest weeks of the year and two weeks left of Summer Vacation. And 45 days, while better, would still cut it pretty short of its full potential, but I'd guess it'd earn 80%-ish of its potential which might be satisfactory enough for Disney.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:55 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming...
Here is roughly how most theaters with a LV (Live-Viewing Broadcast) are looking for Friday:

Shinjuku Piccadilly (Friday)
07:40AM (21/301)
09:00AM (580/580) *Sold Out, LV*
09:00AM (232/232) *Sold Out, LV*
11:05AM (83/301)
01:20PM (75/580)
02:30PM (51/301)
04:00PM (98/287) *4K*
05:55PM (74/301)
07:30PM (580/580) *Sold Out, LV*
07:30PM (232/232) *Sold Out, LV*

09:20PM (13/301)
Current Sales: (2,029/3,996) *As of Wednesday, ~10:30PM*

Movix Saitama (Friday)
08:20AM (23/297)
09:00AM (320/339) *LV*
09:00AM (406/502) *LV*
10:10AM (241/292) *Dolby*
11:30AM (23/297)
12:50PM (25/502)
01:50PM (15/339)
02:40PM (9/297)
03:25PM (230/292) *Dolby*
04:10PM (10/502)
06:30PM (225/292) *Dolby*
07:30PM (339/339) *Sold Out, LV*
07:30PM (502/502) *Sold Out, LV*

08:20PM (25/297)
Current Sales: (2,393/5,089) *As of Wednesday, ~10:30PM*

And using the movie's high ticket prices, taking the average of the adult and student tickets of ¥2,750 for the normal showings, and ¥3,250 for the Dolby showings, we should get, approximately...

¥5.58 million ($49,000) - Shinjuku Piccadilly
¥6.92 million ($61,000) - Movix Saitama

So, ~¥12.5 million ($110,000) for Friday from just two theaters about 36 hours out from show time.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:09 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming (Friday Preview)
It may be a little confusing, or at least curious to some, how a concert film is doing these sorts of numbers, but if you know about Arashi, you probably aren't surprised. And if you don't know of Arashi, here are a couple videos to show how big they are.



This particular 4-day event was held in Miyagi in 2015 following their 15th anniversary, with proceed of the event going towards rebuilding affected areas from the Great Tohoku Earthquake in 2011.

They sold out the stadium, 52,000 people strong, for four consecutive days to sell 208,000 tickets. Which is common for their major dome/stadium tours/events which average ~50,000 people. One of the band members designed the flying platform in the video for them to interact with their fans in such a large open space.

They can sell 1 million concert tickets from just 20 shows, and they've maintained such popularity for roughly 15 years (arguably growing towards their final active years even.)



And the band formed in Hawaii back in 1999, but getting to perform there took years in the making and they finally managed it during their 15th anniversary. The band itself paid $8 million dollars to construct the largest stage in Hawaii's history at over 60 feet tall and almost 300 feet wide. The two concerts held there during the tour attracted over 60,000 people, generating over $20 million dollars for the local economy.

And this is just two example of the scale of their tours and how massive their concerts are. They've sold over 14 million concert tickets, and fittingly, had the most successful tour of all time in Japan back in 2019 with their 20th anniversary tour (that the film opening this weekend follows) selling 2.43 million tickets from 50 shows.

Therefore, since the band has gone on hiatus after 21 years, it's understandable that millions are so interested in the upcoming concert film since it covers what could have been their last tour ever. It's basically like going to see them "live" again, and again and again for some fans no doubt, for maybe the last time.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming (Friday Preview)
I will always be amazed at the longevity of these acts in Japan. Imagine being formed around the time the Backstreet Boys and NSYNC were at their peak and still selling millions of albums, singles and concert & movie tickets. I guess the fact that we're talking about a rapidly aging society might explain why. There's no incentive to constantly churn out new pop acts to cater to a declining youth, it's more profitable to just play on nostalgia.


Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi Looming (Friday Preview)
Today's the day!

Here is roughly what the earnings will likely look like today based on admissions ranging from 100,000-350,000. It has around 480,000 seats at the usual locations, which makes up 82% of its total theater count. So accounting for the other 18% of theaters, using the same average seats per theater, its total seats nationwide should be between 565,000-575,000, roughly. That's why I "capped" it at 350,000 admissions (around 60% of its total seats) since that *should* be about the ceiling.

Potential Friday Results:

100,000 = ¥275-300 million ($2.4-2.6 million) *Impossible; Only To Show What 100,000 Admissions Can Do*
150,000 = ¥412.5-450 million ($3.6-3.9 million) *Very Unlikely; Likely Well Over This In Reservations*
200,000 = ¥550-600 million ($4.8-5.2 million) *Low End*
250,000 = ¥687.5-750 million ($6.0-6.5 million) *Likely*
300,000 = ¥825-900 million ($7.2-7.8 million) *High End*
350,000 = ¥962.5-1.050 billion ($8.4-9.1 million) *Ceiling, probably?*

It's going to do a lot more than 100,000/150,000 admissions (should be well above that in reservations alone), and I just included them to show just how much it can earn from just that many admissions due to its ticket prices. Even if it would miss 200,000, it'd still likely exceed ¥500 million today for example.

I'm expecting its Friday admissions (nationwide, not just from the usual locations) to come in somewhere around 250,000 or a bit higher, so I'm predicting its Friday gross to be around ¥700-¥750 million. The high end of this, 300,000+ admissions, will put it in contention for some potential records or at least a very high position on the Biggest Single-Day/Biggest Friday charts in revenue.

Very few films have ever grossed ¥800/¥900 million in a single-day (especially ¥900 million, probably about 5 off the top of my head, probably less than that, 2 or 3?, if you exclude previews from a couple early/mid-00s films), and only one film* on record has ever exceeded ¥1 billion in a single-day (that film doing it many, many times...).

*Note: That one film is Demon Slayer of course, which is too high to challenge, so just try ignoring it any time a film with a lot of potential opens from now on. It's just not going to be comparable. (We'll basically have to ignore it since it's out of range for anything to challenge for all sorts of records, especially those set in its first three/four weeks.)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi: Are You Ready?
Alright, so 9am admissions are somewhere around 50,000. This includes the first stage greeting/live-broadcast showings of the day. Interestingly, but perhaps unsurprisingly, that's also about how many fans attend their concerts.

~50,000 admissions is already about ¥165 million ($1.4/1.5 million) from the first showings. This will be the second largest batch of admissions of the day (the largest batch likely to come at 7:30pm when the second stage greeting/live-viewing showings begin).

I would assume this is also the minimum too because the system sometimes mistakes a sold out showing as nothing (0 sales) since they get grey out/become unclickable on theater webpages. (These are usually corrected later on in the day.) In fact, I think many showings weren't counted based on the sales versus seats ratio. If that's the case for any location, then it'll be a lot higher than stated above.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:09 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi: Are You Ready?
I'll have its Friday estimate (in range form) posted shortly. There's pretty good evidence that a decent batch of admissions weren't calculated from the early morning, so I'll have an estimate for the admissions we do have, as well as a potential higher estimate with those possibly missing sales.

Not quite as big as I was expecting, and not near the high end of the possible results above, but still quite easily the third biggest day this year and very good. It was understandably very presale frontloaded, not filling too many seats from those already reserved ahead of the day.

This is the sort of film too, since it's a event/concert film, that might have some numbers reported over the weekend, so I'll share anything that may be released.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi: Are You Ready?
So, let me explain the two estimates below. The first one is based on the admissions we know of for sure from roughly 83% of the film's total theater count (168 out of 201) and approximating how many were sold at the remaining 33 theaters. The second one is more complicated since it's assuming that a certain number* of admissions weren't accounted for by the system on Friday.

What is that certain number? Well, the film had two time slots of LV (Live-Viewing) showings yesterday, the first at 9am and the second at 7 OR 7:30pm (the evening slot varied by location). The 9am admissions came in around 41,000 at the usual locations (168 theaters), while the 7pm admissions (split between two back-to-back updates due to the split times) came in around 59,000. That's an 18,000 difference, or about 30% less from the 9am admissions. This is odd because both the morning and evening LV showings were roughly equal and had comparable sold out/sell-through rates going into the day. In fact, the morning update was "only" 46% of its overall seats at that time, while the two 7pm updates were a whopping 92% of the total seats at that time.

It makes sense that the evening batch would come in higher, since they had more time in the day to sell any remaining seats, but a lot of these were already sold out or very full. So 18,000, or 44% more, seems abnormally high. This suggests the possibility that some morning LV showings weren't calculated correctly since there are instances of sold out showings days in advance sometimes being calculated as 0 sales by the system (it thinks they don't exist, basically).

So, all that said, two estimates! One with the known admissions, the second with the possibility that some morning admissions (I'm just going to use the 18,000 and take 10% off for 16,000 to account for evening showings being stronger in general).

Friday (1st) Estimate: ¥475-515 million ($4.1-4.4 million) / 170,000-180,000 admissions.
Friday (2nd) Estimate: ¥520-570 million ($4.5-4.9 million) / 185,000-195,000 admissions.

That's a Friday PTA of approx. ~¥2.36-2.84 million ($20,500-24,600).

Also, the film has been playing exclusively in Dolby Cinema (7 theaters) since November 3rd. All that revenue/admissions won't be included in the traditional Saturday-Sunday opening weekend, but it will be added to the 3-Day (Friday-Sunday) Opening Weekend/Total. We *think* that's going to be as much as ¥325-350 million ($2.8-3.0 million) since it sold out/nearly sold out most of those theaters every day, but it's a bit of an unknown.

Saturday is expected to come in lower, a fairly rare occurrence in the market, due to the hundreds of LV showings on Friday that inflated the weekday. The target, based on what we know/can estimate right now, is probably going to be a 3-Day Opening Weekend (plus previews) of ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million) or a bit higher.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi: Are You Ready?
Any chance we will get those preview numbers? I am interested to see how high it goes without the previews.


Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Arashi: Are You Ready?
If the numbers aren't broken down when released, it should be fairly easy to get a reasonable estimate by subtracting the weekend gross from the 3-day total to discover the Friday + Dolby Cinemas showings from 11/03-25. We won't know the exact figures Friday + Dolby Cinema showings, but we'll have a decent estimate for Friday and can then take that away from the Friday + Dolby Cinema showings to get pretty good idea of what those added up to.

Does that make sense? It did in my head as I was typing it!

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:47 pm
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