Just to respond to this real quick... which will likely be pretty long, so be ready! LOL.

Feel free to post as usual, Kanroji. JustLurking is just making a point that specific giveaway figures doesn't necessarily mean the studio is expecting their film to sell the same number of tickets in a certain amount of days. Rather, it can be seen as sort of a "final" initial goal to reach. And if a film goes higher, then awesome!

In general, most giveaways above a certain number are expected to be handed out over the course of a film's run or over a big holiday period, not in the first weekend or first week. This is especially true for films that open just prior or during a major holiday period. A high giveaway figure helps support a film over the holiday period where many Japanese only go to theaters. Outside of the three major holiday weeks (New Year, Golden Week, and Obon Festival), a lot of Japanese don't go to theaters. So having a giveaway with a large printing being attached to a film during these weeks in particular is good strategy to help attract them to their movie since it's a rare chance to reach non-regular moviegoers.

Lastly, Japan is a market where "big" (relative to other markets) openings can't really happen. There are roughly ~500 theaters in the entire country for theatrical releases (all standard and all the various premium theater locations). But it's very difficult to get more than 400 theaters since that requires a sizable chunk of all premium locations (or at least all IMAX). And Japan has A LOT of films playing in theaters, more releases a year than almost any other country, so it's usually impossible to get most/all of the premium theaters upon opening (they're usually staggered).

Only a handful of films have ever gotten 400+ theaters. The ceiling for a theater count is usually around 375-380.

Demon Slayer pushed Japan's theatrical limit to its near max capacity last year. It received approx. 1.9/2 million seats nationwide. That's far and away a record (nearly double). The biggest films prior rarely broke 1 million seats, with ~1.2/1.3 million being the max. So Demon Slayer had around 5.7-6 million seats available that it could fill over its first 3-days, while the biggest films prior would have had around 3-3.5 million seats available over their first 3-days. But it's, of course, not possible to sell 100% of those seats. The early morning (6am-9am) and very late showings (11am-2am) can't realistically sell out, which leaves tens or even hundreds of thousands of seats unfilled. If a film sells out all their shows between 9am-11pm, which Demon Slayer very nearly did, then ~80% of all available seating can be achieved, which Demon Slayer also nearly did at ~77%.

So... the realistic max that Demon Slayer could have sold in a single day would have been ~1.5/1.6 million, and over its first 3-days given its far and away record seating would have been something like 4.5-4.8 million admissions. It sold 3.4 million tickets, which would have been ~71-76% of all its realistically available seating. And it did 76.9%, basically reaching the absolute max that an opening weekend in Japan can realistically achieve.

As for every other film besides Demon Slayer, the maximum admissions they could have reached over their 3-day opening weekends would have been 2.5-2.7 million admissions or so. And no film (Demon Slayer aside, again, as it just needs to be excluded at this point) has really been able to approach that as no 3-day opening weekends have ever reached 2 million.

Finally, we come to Jujutsu Kaisen's OW potential. It won't get near Demon Slayer's counts because the box-office is back to normal. It won't be able to command 60%+ of all screens in the country, and it won't be playing 21 hours a day. It'll receive a lot of seats, no question there, and quite possibly second only to Demon Slayer in history, but something around Frozen II/Detective Conan 24 (~1.6-1.8 million) is most likely. So that should be considered the limit of daily admissions, and taking off 20% for those early and late showings that can't realistically sell out, giving us a max of ~1.3/1.4 million seats a day, and ~3.9-4.2 million seats over the first 3-days. So the question becomes how many of those will the film manage to sell. If it would do ~50% or a little better (similar to the Detective Conan films), it *could* break 2 million admissions over the 3-day. And besides Demon Slayer, no other film in history has ever done this (or even close, really), so that'd be an incredible accomplishment if it can do it.

I'm sorry if I came off as aggressive - I was just trying to make you understand my point! And for your personal prediction, it's fine to disagree on that, that's just an opinion.

All I'm trying to say is that you shouldn't assume because TOHO is giving it a 5M gift, that means they expect it to be gone for its OW - that's a wrong assumption.

I'll check on it later today. I don't recognize the title, so I know it didn't crack the Top 10 and probably came no where close since it was a Bitter End (small independent distributor) release. Assuming it at least got inside the Top 25, I can give a rough estimate on what it's earned.

Hopefully it gets nominated at the Academy Awards though! Feel like it's been quite some time since a Japanese film has really be in contention.

Back to this weekend,

Your Turn to Kill opened quite well, likely coming close to ¥350 million / 250,000 admissions. This will probably result in a finish near ¥2.5 billion, maybe a little more.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage dropped over 40% in its second weekend as expected of a Marvel/DC film. Its weekdays were also pretty weak, so just all the normal frontload signs that the genre experiences. There's a chance it reaches ¥2.5 billion, but it'll likely fall a little short.

Arashi has been holding better and better, and might have achieved a 20% hold or better in its third weekend. Might seem surprising that a largely exclusive fanbase film with ticket prices more than double the general admission fee would hold well after opening, but it's not, really. It'll only slow down once the hundreds of thousands of diehard fans stop going to see it (it's like going to concerts, basically). So, should be over ¥3 billion after three weeks, and likely aiming for ¥4-5 billion.

And in general, all the others films in the Top 10 continue to hold good to great. Lots of 20-30% sort of holds again.

Actually, it went a little harsh. I actually know that ¥7B OW is impossible but the industry insiders says that "if they managed" not "they predicted" then 5M visitors will be equal to ¥7B. Not, that I meant, or they mean that ¥7B is possible. I am fully aware that ¥7B OW is impossible, when, a film has a lot of competition, and also what Corpse pointed out over with explaination. But, when, my expectations of max ¥3B OW or ¥800M-¥1.2B OD is considered as more than a ceiling, then, it's has heated me up. It's ok, if my projection does not satisfy any equation for JJK Movie 0. But, atleast, I expect that no one consider me as crazy &therefore, I apologise if anyone was hurted by my observation on a particular film. Yeah, it's true that being JJK fan, I have huge expectations, and sometimes, I do write crazy answer due to my frustrations. So, I sincerely apologise for my behavior.

Kanroji don't apologize (we shouldn't do that here, even if others are hurt it's your opinion or expectation and we respect everyone here including JustLurking). We are a group that laughs, fights and debates together.

I'm excited to see how JJK 0 does. It will be wonderful if it broke past non-DS records, not only good for the movie and fans but for the industry in general and it will help manga circulation another year. (Not a big fan of the series btw but still love it and very excited to see what comes next).

I forgot to add that gritty optimism has sometimes led to mammoth unexpected victories (not expecting one here though). I just hope Jjk gets past 10B mark first. Anything else will be a gravy on top.

Indeed. Be enthusiastic and have high expectations. Just have "reserved" expectations in place just in case. :wink:

Because "just" opening to ¥1 billion and grossing over ¥5 billion would be a pretty big success, so I don't want that sort of scenario to be considered disappointing either. Certain figures (¥5 billion is considered blockbuster status, roughly the equivalent of ¥250 million in the U.S.) can look "disappointing", when they're not, following a film that manages to break all the records And if it can manage something similar to the recent Detective Conan films. that'd be quite staggering, really.

Personally, I am expecting an opening somewhere around ¥2 billion for the 3-day (hard to say what the 2-day will be since the 24th, its opening day, isn't the strongest day, but it's also an anniversary date for the event that occurs in the film itself, so... interesting dynamic there). And that'd likely get it to around ¥10 billion or so.

That's pretty much what I expect as well. If it manages to open on par with conan movies, I think it will end up outgrossing them due to toho pushing harder with gifts than a typical conan movie would receive.

A ton of theaters (likely a clear majority, like 65/75%+) are dropping Eternals on Dec. 16th. It's still hanging in around the Top 12 as of this weekend (Dec. 11-12th), but the upcoming Disney+ debut is going to cut it short/end its run ahead of the upcoming holidays.

Likewise, I expect Encanto will be dropped next week (Dec. 23rd) since it debuts on Disney+ even earlier. It'll still be in the Top 10 when it's dropped, just a day away from Christmas Week.

Please, please... let this be the last of these theatrical window releases from Disney. Being dropped just ahead of one of the biggest holiday periods of the year is silly.

Disney needs to start filtering content on D+ based on geography. It's just not worth it releasing their titles in Japan this soon.

Teaser trailer for Studio Ponoc's (founded by former Studio Ghibli staff when Ghibli disbanded) latest, The Imaginary, was released this week:




『屋根裏のラジャー』ティザービジュアル（C）2022 Ponoc

Summer 2022 release, very likely July or August. The Imaginary will be Studio Ponoc's first film since 2017's Mary and the Witch's Flower.

And since Jujutsu Kaisen 0 is only 10 days away, I'll share its exclusive IMAX poster just in case anyone missed it (it was released two weeks back, I think.)

Kind of unfortunate timing for The Matrix's debut this upcoming week since Jujutsu Kaisen is receiving every IMAX location.

And the full version of the movie's theme song, "Ichizu" (One Way) by King Gnu, was released over the weekend:



Digital: https://va.lnk.to/3dH51J
Physical: https://www.cdjapan.co.jp/product/BVCL-1197

Only 5x legs for JJK ? and 2 billion would be the 2nd best OW of all time after DS ?

Well, the multiplier is from the opening weekend itself (Sat. and Sun.). So if it would reach ¥2 billion for the 3-day, I'm guessing that'd be something like... ¥1.3/1.4 billion, maybe, for the weekend. (Very hard to determine how much Friday will account for.) This is just a rough guess right now, assuming it does open with something comparable to Detective Conan. (The Detective Conan franchise has basically become the top-tier openers in the market now. Almost nothing can match them.)

If we're looking at 3-day openings, it has a shot at being #2 all-time. Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet achieved the 3rd biggest 3-day opening ever just earlier this year. But the opening weekend chart (just the 2-day) will be very hard to rank particularly high on since that list is full of many early/mid-00s films with tons of previews included in their openings.

It's going to be fairly frontloaded than not though, I expect. There haven't been any signs of the anime/manga reaching a very broad, casual moviegoing audience (it's not going to appeal to many children or senior citizens, for example), and I doubt it manages to bring in the non-moviegoer audience (which chart topping songs/soundtracks can often do, and JJK's music, while popular, hasn't reached that sort of status).

So this will likely be a largely fanbase driven film, so a multiplier also similar to the Detective Conan films shouldn't be too surprising or unexpected. I'm guessing a ~6 going off that. Which is fine. Its first 18-days are also, more or less, occurring over all holidays/weekends so it'll be firing on all cylinders pretty much out of the gate and over its first three weeks in release, and then it'll likely see a sharp declines from week 4 onward.

The JJK 0 song did well, nothing crazy though.


But I do am curious, how come songs like this which would barely even be in the movie (usually relegated to end credits) can have that much of an impact?

Good question! That's because music (songs, soundtracks) is the best source of drawing casual moviegoers and the non-moviegoers to theaters.

Japan has a pretty finite moviegoing audience that mostly tops out between 10-11 million people. A regular film isn't going to go beyond this number on its own (at least not much higher). It needs something to assist in drawing in the more casual and non-moviegoers to see it, which can be equal to/or greater than the usual moviegoing audience itself in the market. Japan is the third biggest market in the world, but if you look at its population versus smaller markets like the UK or Germany, its box office admissions, while higher, aren't as high in comparison as you'd think.

Books and manga can be a source, but music is a much greater source. Books/manga (or another material source) has to be sought out, and still confines the audience to those who have bought and read them. And there are those that just aren't interested in books/manga. They require an investment of both time and money, arguably the most important things to give up.

Music is different. Popular songs/soundtracks can be heard without being sought out. It can reach just about anyone, and it may not even cost any money. You can hear them on the radio, on the TV (be it a special music broadcast or in a TV show itself), at the malls, from your friends and family, and so on. Music is very easy to get out to people with little/no effort, especially when it reaches enough popularity.

And pretty much everyone *enjoys* music. If a song/soundtrack is enjoyed by enough people, there's usually a reason. This helps it spread person-to-person, family-to-family. And it doesn't have to be because of the movie/TV show, etc. that it's even featured in. You can enjoy the music on its own with no knowledge of what it's featured in or who it's by.

But the key here, and how it very often improves a film that has a popular song/soundtrack, is that some of those people are going to go seek out where the song/soundtrack is coming from. Who is it by? What movie/TV show is it from? And in doing that, that movie or TV show is gaining an audience they wouldn't have without it. And for the box-office, this allows a film to breakout beyond that 10-11 million moviegoer cap to reach otherwise unreachable success. And it's not just a boon for huge films either. It can help bring in new audiences for the smallest of films as well.

That's interesting. I always thought theme songs were more of an afterthought considering they usually aren't even "properly" in the movie (contrary to, say, an anime opening), never thought they could hold so much importance in the market.

Just announced by Toho, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 will be receiving midnight showings at 8 of their Toho Cinemas, which are basically their busiest locations, with half being among the busiest locations nationwide. Midnights can be added to the opening weekend (3-day anyway) since, well, they occur at the start of Friday.

Aeon Cinemas and United Cinemas will be offering special concession items (cups, buckets, candy, etc.) featuring art from the series. This can drive repeats if fans want to collect these items, but go to Toho Cinemas (or another chain) to see it first.

If Tobey and Andrew are in NWH (which is apparently the case even if it is not yet certain), will its box office be more important in Japan than if they weren't there ?

I was going to apologize for taking longer to get these numbers than I should have, but good thing I did because they were officially announced today following its Golden Globe nomination AND Best Picture Win at one of the critics awards (Boston, maybe?)!

It has grossed ¥200 million (~$1.8 million) in Japan. Assuming it continues to do very well this award season with more nominations (and wins), especially if it gets nominated in the Foreign Language Category at the Oscars, then expect that total to go up quite a bit as it'll reach a far wider release than it was originally given.

Yeah. The Holland/MCU films are doing good, but they have earned slightly less than the Garfield films, and obviously MUCH less (less than half) than the Maguire films (which remain the 3 biggest superhero movies ever).

How much will it help? Hard to say. No Way Home is very likely to outgross the previous two films, but expecting it to say double up on them is probably asking too much. If it receives a similar boost that Endgame saw over Infinity War (a whopping 70/75% increase or so, forget the exact percentage off the top of my head), it has a chance at reaching ¥5 billion+. Any bigger boost than that is certainly going into very unrealistic territory. And if it would reach ¥5 billion, it'd become only the 6th Marvel/DC film to ever achieve blockbuster status in Japan. So I think that's a very high target, but also within the realistic realm of possibility and expectations here.