Angelina Jolie is the biggest female Hollywood box-office draw in Japan (ahead of Milla Jovovich and Anne Hathaway), and like her top male counterparts (Tom Cruise and Johnny Depp, and a distant third in Brad Pitt), Japan is often her films' biggest overseas market, or one of the top 3 ranking markets at the box-office. The second Maleficent was a misfire (day-and-date release in October was risky), however.

Angelina Jolie Box-Office History (2000-):

¥1.83 billion ($17.1 million) - Gone in 60 Seconds (2000) [N/A Overseas Market; Likely Top 3]
¥2.70 billion ($22.1 million) - Lara Croft Tomb Raider (2001) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥2.00 billion ($16.4 million) - Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life (2003) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥260 million ($2.4 million) - Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (2004) [#3 Overseas Market]
¥1.23 billion ($12.0 million) - Alexander (2005) [#2 Overseas Market]
¥4.65 billion ($39.1 million) - Mr. & Mrs. Smith (2005) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥420 million ($3.7 million) - The Good Shepherd (2007) [#5 Overseas Market]
¥130 million ($1.2 million) - A Mighty Heart (2007) [#2 Overseas Market]
¥800 million ($7.4 million) - Beowulf (2007) [#3 Overseas Market]
¥2.50 billion ($24.2 million) - Wanted (2008) [#2 Overseas Market]
¥1.28 billion ($13.1 million) - Changeling (2009) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥2.05 billion ($23.9 million) - Salt (2010) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥1.87 billion ($22.7 million) - The Tourist (2011) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥6.53 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent (2014) [#1 Overseas Market]
¥1.40 billion ($12.7 million) - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019) [#9 Overseas Market]

7/14: #1 Rankings
11/14: Top 3 Rankings
12/14: Top 5 Rankings

Note: List excludes all voice-character roles, though I did include Jolie's motion-capture role in Beowulf (plus, it was a heavily marketed role/scene).

Japan isn't going to rank very high worldwide for Eternals, the MCU isn't particularly big in Japan, but it may become Disney's first success in the market in 2 years.

Corpse, Unbroken limited release box office in Japan in 2016 where a group of petitioners asked for a limited release in the country to rectify press &political comments

Eternals: Sat (Est) $1,54M/ $2,69M
I don't know Shangchi' s OW Sun drop.
Sun may drop 10% (?) from Sat -> $1,38M
Sat+Sun: $2,92M (~330M yen), FSS: $4,07M (~459M yen)
Shangchi has a 3.22x legs from its FSS OW ($2.7M)
@Corpse do you think this movie has a chance at 4x legs from FSS OW? It seems that this movie won't have 45 days exclusive....?
EDIT: Sun's drop like 18% from Sat, is this normal? the same as Shangchi?

This twitter account reported 330M yen on Sat+Sun
https://twitter.com/eigarankingnews/sta ... 26115?s=20

That's not an official "news" source. Just another user estimating numbers. An official source wouldn't post numbers before Sunday is even over. Just want to make that clear again in case more people on Twitter or elsewhere "report" on numbers. (They're just estimating, just like me.)

The Sunday drop is relatively large, but not unusual for Marvel/DC properties as they're naturally frontloaded.

It probably came in around ¥320/330 million ($2.8/2.9 million) over the weekend though, and ~¥450/460 million ($4 million) over its first three days in release. This is good, quite good. Disney's best Opening Weekend in two-years. And it's guaranteed to exceed ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) now, giving Disney their first success in two-years! As for where it's heading, it'll still likely be frontloaded as nearly every Marvel/DC film is, so I'd project around ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million) or a tad more if most theaters don't drop it too early. (Like Week 5, for example, as they did Black Widow and Shang-Chi).

You said the movie isn't going to have a 45-day theatrical window? Someone else said it was. So... is it, or isn't it? If it is, then ¥1.5 billion or a tad less should be expected, assuming theaters drop it around then (or before). But if it has a traditional theatrical run, then it can go a little higher to say, ¥1.6/1.7 billion perhaps. This may not seem like too much either way, but it's above the average Marvel/DC gross in the market when you exclude all Spider-Man films, or films featuring Spider-Man.

Marvel & DC Box-Office History (1980-):

OPENINGS:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥698.6 million ($6.5 million) - Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019)
¥672.4 million ($6.2 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥548.0 million ($5.1 million) - Joker (2019)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥439.0 million ($3.9 million) - Venom (2018)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) - Captain Marvel (2019)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥375.1 million ($3.4 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman V. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥325.0 million ($2.9 million) - Eternals (2021) *Estimate*
¥322.2 million ($2.9 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (2019)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥218.8 million ($2.0 million) - Black Widow (2021)
¥216.8 million ($2.0 million) - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥167.0 million ($1.5 million) - Shazam! (2019)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥132.0 million ($1.2 million) - X-Men: Dark Phoenix (2019)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)
¥128.1 million ($1.1 million) - The Suicide Squad (2021)
¥123.0 million ($1.1 million) - Birds of Prey (2020)
¥114.3 million ($1.1 million) - Wonder Woman 1984 (2020)
¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)
¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)

TOTALS:
¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥6.13 billion ($55.4 million) - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
¥5.06 billion ($46.7 million) - Joker (2019)
¥3.74 billion ($34.1 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥3.21 billion ($26.0 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥3.06 billion ($28.2 million) - Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019)
¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million) - Batman (1989)
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥2.63 billion ($24.1 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million) - Superman II (1981)
¥2.25 billion ($20.0 million) - Venom (2018)
¥2.04 billion ($19.2 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥2.04 billion ($18.6 million) - Captain Marvel (2019)
¥1.97 billion ($24.2 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) - Batman V. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million) - X-Men (2000)
¥1.80 billion ($16.3 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥1.64 billion ($14.8 million) - Aquaman (2019)
¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥1.56 billion ($14.5 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥1.32 billion ($11.7 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥1.21 billion ($10.0 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥1.15 billion ($10.2 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥1.03 billion ($10.1 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥970 million ($9.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥960 million ($8.8 million) - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021)
¥950 million ($10.1 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥900 million ($8.2 million) - Black Widow (2021)
¥900 million ($9.3 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥900 million ($9.8 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥850 million ($8.2 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥830 million ($6.9 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥820 million ($8.4 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥800 million ($8.9 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥750 million ($8.0 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥740 million ($6.8 million) - Logan (2017)
¥725 million ($6.9 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥700 million ($6.3 million) - Shazam! (2019)
¥700 million ($6.8 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥650 million ($6.3 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥580 million ($5.3 million) - The Suicide Squad (2021)
¥550 million ($7.0 million) - Thor (2011)
¥535 million ($5.1 million) - Wonder Woman 1984 (2020)
¥500 million ($4.7 million) - Birds of Prey (2020)
¥455.0 million ($4.0 million) - Eternals (2021) *Estimate, 3-Days in Release*
¥420 million ($4.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥400 million ($3.7 million) - X-Men: Dark Phoenix (2019)
¥400 million ($5.0 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥370 million ($3.3 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥240 million ($2.0 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)
¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Green Lantern (2011)

Marvel/DC

Shangchi collapsed already starting from its 2nd weekend
and only has 3.25x legs... is that really common with Marvel movies from the past till now ?
I checked and saw that Captain Marvel has around 4.59x legs,... ($17M from $3.7 FSS).

Shang-Chi was dropped from most theaters in its fifth week (initial Disney+ release was in October so theaters boycotted it in week 5), so its legs were a bit abnormally bad. In general most Marvel/DC films drop 45/50% or so in their second weekends, and don't really recover given their frontloaded nature. Most end up with multipliers (weekend only, not counting Friday) of around 4.5/5-ish.

Captain Marvel opened a week before Spring Break in March, and had Golden Week in April, which helped its legs a decent bit.

If you look at the chart above, you can get an idea of where the opening weekends roughly lead to in total. Most Marvel/DC films behave pretty similarly from their opening weekends (but exclude all Spider-Man films/films featuring Spider-Man from this; they have more mainstream appeal).

Happy One-Year Anniversary, by the way, Alo12345!

And let me make another post of this whole Disney+ and theaters boycotting Disney films thing, if more clarification is needed:

Films that debut on Disney+ the same day as theaters = Instant boycott from Toho Cinemas (busiest chain in the country), Movix Cinemas (third busiest chain), and some smaller, independent chains. All the others chains, such as Aeon Cinemas (second busiest) and United Cinemas (fourth busiest) play them, but drop them at the start of week 5 (Day 30).

Films that are given a theatrical window and debut on Disney+ at a later date = No boycott upon opening, but most theater chains (all the bigger ones mentioned above included) drop them in at the start of week 5. So they have 29-days to play until they're dropped from all major chains. Shangi-Chi was ranked #11 on Day 29, but fell out of the Top 25 after it was dropped on Day 30. Same thing with Free Guy; it was dropped on Day 30.

Disney is really the sole distributor dealing with this because HBO Max isn't in Japan, so Warner Bros. is fine (although day-and-date releases is hurting their imported films). And most other theatrical releases that go on streaming, either from the start or later on (think Peacock or Paramount+, etc.) are being handled by local distributors (like Toho-Towa) and aren't available on streaming in Japan.

Thank you very much.
If after the OW, Disney still doesn't make any annoucement about the 45 days exclusive for a movie in Japan, it means it won't happen or it will auto happen?

Disney hasn't made any annoument about that for Eternals yet?

Do you know how much Shangchi dropped on its first Monday after the Sunday (OW)..... want to see if tomorrow, Eternals will have a softer drop or not....

From Sunday, Shang-Chi dropped about 50% even on Monday in admissions. Mondays are discount days at Aeon Cinemas though, so probably closer to 55% in revenue.

So far, their Disney+ premieres have been the same day worldwide (adjusting for time zones, I guess). So I'll assume for now the same is true for Eternals in Japan. Disney definitely needs to postpone when films debut on Disney+ in Japan though. Not just to avoid their films being boycotted after just 30 days (not even the 45-day window timeframe), but also because 30 days, or even 45 days in some cases, isn't much time generate revenue in a very leggy market like Japan. 60-day minimum, really, but 75-90 days would be better suited for most of their non-MCU films.

"Disney definitely needs to postpone when films debut on Disney+ in Japan"
Did Disney postpone the time when movie debuts on Disney+ in Japan before?
I heard that Shangchi debut on Disney+ in US or something like that was postponed?

So far, they have not. All Disney+ debuts have been the same day worldwide (or close, factor in time-zones perhaps), at least in Japan.

Shang-Chi originally had a 45-day theatrical window, but that was delayed by Disney until November. But, it was too late in Japan because theaters boycotted it at the beginning of its fifth week as planned, which I assume was ahead of the Disney+ postponement announcement.

But Shang-Chi's Disney+ delay was worldwide, I believe, not just in Japan.

Determining when to release films on Disney+ by country is probably tricky for Disney though as it'd be unfair to subscribers if most countries got them 45 days after their theatrical debut, while some had to wait another month or two. Japan theaters have been very anti-streaming though, so until something more is done beyond theatrical windows (or at least the short 30/45-day ones), Disney will likely continue to have issues in the market for their films after opening and the first month.

Is it normal for movie in general to drop 50% on Mon day from Sunday (OW) in Japan (including movies which have good legs too).

It varies greatly between films. Its hard to say what "good" or "normal" is, but I'd say an "average" among all films is maybe something like ~35/40%?

~50% is generally considered high, but it can be normal for some films. Family/young-skewing films, for example, can sometimes drop like ~80-90%, which is why they're pretty reliant on specific release dates near/during major holiday periods (releasing them in off-season months is typically suicide). But if a film skews older, especially up towards senior citizens, they can sometimes drops like ~10-20%. But while certainly amazing, it's just "normal" for them. Same for films that skew heavily female; they perform strong over the weekdays generally.

Eternals came in below estimates, having skewed very heavily towards urban prefectures with a ~75-25 urban-to-rural ratio. The average for a very wide release (300+ theaters) is closer to 65-35/70-30 most of the time (depending on the film itself):

¥293,560,000 ($2.58 million) / 184,396 (OW)
¥415,720,000 ($3.65 million) / 264,758 (3-day total)

Still good, Disney's best opening in about two-full years now. Its projected range is very likely ~¥1.3-1.6 billion ($11-14 million). Marvel/DC films are usually easy to project since they're frontloaded and behave similarly. Lower end if it's very frontloaded/gets dropped by theaters in week 5 due to Disney+, and the higher end if behaves closer to a normal Marvel/DC film with a traditional theatrical run. The Monday hold probably suggests something closer to the lower end though, but we'll see. It'll still become Disney's most successful film in two-years either way by being the first to hit ¥1 billion ($9 million).

Corpse, have your NWH predictions for Japan changed recently or altered as we come closer to the release? As of November 9th, what do you think is achievable over there? Thanks.

I don't think so. Well... moving to January 7th is an interesting move. It's a 4-day holiday weekend, the last in the New Year holiday period (and that Monday, January 10th, is a national holiday, too), so it'll likely have a more impressive opening than it would have in December.

However... its run may prove to be more frontloaded than before because mid-January through early-March is typically a weaker period for the box-office. So, likely bigger start/opening, but worse legs.

The last four Spider-Man films have been very consistent, all earning right around ¥3 billion (all four between ¥2.80-¥3.16 billion), so something around there at a minimum I'd say. But with more of a novelty factor this time (Maguire and Garfield, not to mention the returning villains), it should see a bit a bump. I could see it approach ¥4 billion or a bit more ($35-40 million).

Speaking of, with Spider-Man moving to 2022 (as well as Shin Ultraman and Ghostbusters), I'm working on the December 2021 Release Schedule post now and will have it up pretty soon!

December 2021 Release Schedule:

12/03:
[339] - Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony)
[160] - MANKAI MOVIE A3! SPRING & SUMMER (Gaga)
[152] - Hulla Fulla Dance (Aniplex)
[x77] - Aria the Benedizione (Shochiku)
[x73] - What She Likes (Bandai Namco Arts)

12/10:
[353] - Your Turn To Kill (Toho)
[116] - Last Night in Soho (Parco)
[N/A] - West Side Story (Disney)*

12/17:
[352] - The Boss Baby: Family Business (Toho-Towa, Gaga)
[346] - The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros.)
[317] - Kamen Rider: Beyond Generations (Toei)

12/24:
[379] - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (Toho)
[N/A] - The King's Man (Disney)*

12/30:
[350] - 99.9 Criminal Lawyer: The Movie (Shochiku)

12/31:
[x78] - The End of the Pale Hour (Parco)

*Theatre count currently unknown due to theatrical window/Disney+ conflict.

Holidays/Holiday Periods for December 2021 (Including New Year 2022):
12/24-12/30: Christmas Week (Not a national holiday/holiday period, but most daycares, schools, and many offices begin to close ahead of New Year.)
12/31: New Year's Eve / Bank Holiday
12/31-01/10: New Year Week
01/01: New Year's Day
01/02: Bank Holiday
01/03: Bank Holiday
01/10: Coming of Age Day

_______________________________

Note: Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, but rarely do.
Note (2): Release schedule posting excludes most very limited releases (<50 locations) unless from a notable distributor or notable release.

General Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited / 101-149: Wide / 150-199: Below Average / 200-249: Average / 250-299: Above Average / 300-349: Very Wide / >350: Optimal.

At least by releasing in early January, NWH is sort of avoiding a certain Christmas competition, since it will be avoiding the debut of JJK, Matrix 4, and Venom (even if it releases earlier in December). Besides, Corpse for NWH you expect $35M-$40M and for Matrix 4, what do you expect ? If I remember correctly the first 3 Matrix were huge in Japan.

It's a tricky one. The series really fell off after the second film, and especially the third film, in the market, so the fourth one will be opening 18 years later after back-to-back disappointing receptions. That's not good.

¥8.70 billion ($62.0 million) - The Matrix (1999)
¥11.00 billion ($88.0 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥6.70 billion ($61.8 million) - The Matrix Revolutions (2003)

The second one broke the ¥10 billion milestone (and hit the ¥11 billion mark) thanks to its opening weekend record (at the time, only just broken last year) and large total it ran up as a result over its first couple of weeks. But it was very frontloaded, and its negative WOM clearly showed its effect on the third film which dropped 40% and finished ¥2 billion, or 23%, below the first film.

The fourth film will need to be excellent. A "good enough" sort of reception isn't going to be "good enough" for the franchise to bounce back, I feel, especially after the receptions of films 2 and 3 (the third film was even more frontloaded than the second) and the 18-year wait.

I'm expecting a big opening weekend out of interest and given the status of the franchise as a whole, but it's really up in the air from there. Opening a week before Jujutsu Kaisen 0 is also a little risky since JJK will take the biggest screens away from it in its second week. It'll still perform well despite that, especially over New Year, but it could potentially lower the ceiling if its reception is anything but excellent.

I'd say trying to maintain the numbers that the third film posted is the main goal here, but don't be shocked if it does see another big decline. Could be another Terminator 4 or Indiana Jones 4 scenario here (big opening out of interest of a famous established franchise, horrible legs to finish below its predecessors/or barely match it.) That said, if it's excellent, there's precedent (Jurassic World, or Jurassic Part 4 if you will) for a franchise recovery.

Okay thank you and sorry for bothering you again, but do you think JJK is a film that has the potential to reach ¥25Bn or at least ¥20Bn and enter in the top 6 biggest movies in Japan just ahead of HP1 ?

Anything above ¥10B is a huge success for a Japanese Film. Although, we don't have any huge overseas markets other than China &Korea. That ¥25B is dependent on it's legging. Not something like Demon Slayer but at least half of it is still a easy win.