Assuming it comes in around the forecast (which is barely a prediction given the unusual circumstances), and then assume it behaves close to as normal as a film that typically receives a boost over Spring Break, then yeah.

But I'll reiterate that it's always just best to wait and see, not expect any specific number(s), and not to make a long term prediction where there's no precedent. This is fine for other films, where we can look at precedent and don't have special circumstances surrounding them, but as we've known for 5 months, this isn't one of those films.

And don't get hung up on the "it MUST sell 1 million admissions this week" thing. It could sell 1 million tickets this week, or it could miss but come pretty close. But it shouldn't be seen as the benchmark of a successful week or something. We're looking at an increase of several hundred percent this weekend, and week, regardless that locks up a total above ¥40 billion by the end of Spring Break. They went high on the giveaways so that most everyone who wanted to get this giveaway could, IF they come out during the week (win-win for them and fans). Remember that the last giveaways were all smaller in quantity and largely sold out in 2 or 3 days. And when you factor in the scalpers, many fans missed out on at least one or two of them.

announcement comparison isn't useful here since kimetsu was still just a successful series when the movie was announced (the manga first volume was still at 700K for example), JJK announcement probably did generate more likes/retweets




I want to add that even with Kimetsu manga numbers, most prediction(up to one month before its premiere) though the maximum it could do is 10B so movie was very special case and just the its shear popularity it managed to take the series popularity to new height whether any other movie can do something similar remain to be seen.

Can anyone confirm is it true that Fate Grand Order the movie has lootbox section when it encourage people to take out their phone and enter gashapon code appear on screen.

Demon Slayer will finish #3 today, very good start to monster hunter. Demon Slayer manages to increase his income by 150%. This is obviously very good but I was expecting maybe more with Corpse's weekend forecast reaching 300% increase. To see what tomorrow gives us, it will be tight for the 2nd position between Monster Hunter and Demon Slayer, even if for the instany monster hunter is better off to get it.

Revenue increase compared to last Saturday will be more than 150% because of the higher average ticket price from the premium screens (which I assume are its most popular showings).

The jump in revenue will indeed be higher than the jump in admissions from the Dolby Cinema expansion (those tickets are over ¥2000) and the additional premium format showings it regained. If it helps project things, the revenue bump should be around 10% (maybe a bit higher) higher than the admissions bump.

It's also important to note that the usual locations is only accounting for about 65% (versus 70-75% for most wide releases) of Demon Slayer's theater count right now. Its theater count is way up to 391 (still at all time levels despite being in its 24th week). This is one of the reasons its dailies have been coming in higher than the usual locations is suggesting because a full third of its theaters are in the rural prefectures right now (which also don't have any restrictions in place) and are unaccounted for in the tracking.

But it's not going to reach what I put in the forecast, and that's alright. You can't really predict such days or weekends when a large-scale expansion occurs, in addition to giveaways, etc. You can't just go back and look for a precedent to compare to because it doesn't exist. This film is setting the precedent itself. You just need to wait and see how the numbers come in. And wherever it comes in at this weekend is still very, very significant and unprecedented at the box office. Nothing on record has been this strong at this stage--not even half as strong. It could break the 24th Weekend Record by 2.5x for starters, and the Saturday alone probably broke the record. Its 163rd day in release is going to be its biggest single-day since January 11th (a holiday), that's over two months ago.

Maybe it was a little too ambitious to put in 1 million gifts. 500,000 would have been enough I think.

Probably, but 1 million will allow any fans wanting one to get one this unlike the past giveaways. It's not really a case of not reaching a goal here when all goes have long since been reached already.

And they could always make the decision to allow theaters to continue handing them out after next Friday if they want. Same with the sixth giveaway next week also being at 1 million, but it doesn't have a deadline to receive it like this week's currently does.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 190,000
12/29 - Tues.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 205,000
12/30 - Wed.: ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 240,000
12/31 - Thur.: ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 135,000
01/01 - Fri.: ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 230,000 *Holiday, Discount Day*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥351,200,000 ($3.4 million) / 220,150 *Bank Holiday*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥326,800,000 ($3.2 million) / 204,850 *Bank Holiday*
01/04 - Mon.: ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 180,000 *Post-Holiday Boosted*
01/05 - Tues.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 100,000
01/06 - Wed.: ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million) / x95,000
01/07 - Thur.: ¥x80,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x50,000
01/08 - Fri.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x40,000
01/09 - Sat.: ¥125,790,000 ($1.2 million) / x75,600
01/10 - Sun.: ¥173,710,000 ($1.7 million) / 104,400
01/11 - Mon.: ¥132,804,950 ($1.3 million) / x84,300 *Holiday*
01/12 - Tues.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/13 - Wed.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x30,000
01/14 - Thur.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/15 - Fri.: ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million) / x30,000
01/16 - Sat.: ¥x95,550,000 ($0.9 million) / x57,810
01/17 - Sun.: ¥107,750,000 ($1.0 million) / x65,190
01/18 - Mon.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x23,000
01/19 - Tues.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/20 - Wed.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x27,000
01/21 - Thur.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/22 - Fri.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/23 - Sat.: ¥x87,960,400 ($0.8 million) / x53,648
01/24 - Sun.: ¥x95,673,000 ($0.9 million) / x58,352
01/25 - Mon.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/26 - Tues.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x18,000
01/27 - Wed.: ¥x38,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x26,000
01/28 - Thur.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x19,000
01/29 - Fri.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/30 - Sat.: ¥x78,544,500 ($0.7 million) / x48,829
01/31 - Sun.: ¥x90,219,600 ($0.9 million) / x56,171
02/01 - Mon.: ¥x36,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x28,000 *Discount Day*
02/02 - Tues.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/03 - Wed.: ¥x34,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x24,000
02/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/05 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x17,000
02/06 - Sat.: ¥x67,883,790 ($0.6 million) / x42,974
02/07 - Sun.: ¥x77,443,410 ($0.7 million) / x49,026
02/08 - Mon.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/09 - Tues.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x14,000
02/10 - Wed.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.34 million) / x25,000
02/11 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.72 million) / x47,000 *Holiday*
02/12 - Fri.: ¥x32,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x20,000
02/13 - Sat.: ¥x54,533,337 ($0.52 million) / x34,746
02/14 - Sun.: ¥x66,316,163 ($0.63 million) / x42,254
02/15 - Mon.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x17,000
02/16 - Tues.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/17 - Wed.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x23,000
02/18 - Thur.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.23 million) / x15,000
02/19 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.27 million) / x17,000
02/20 - Sat.: ¥x73,694,892 ($0.69 million) / x46,455
02/21 - Sun.: ¥x77,010,408 ($0.73 million) / x48,545
02/22 - Mon.: ¥x41,000,000 ($0.39 million) / x27,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
02/23 - Tues.: ¥x87,000,000 ($0.83 million) / x55,000 *Holiday*
02/24 - Wed.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x21,000
02/25 - Thur.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
02/26 - Fri.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x17,000
02/27 - Sat.: ¥x72,622,137 ($0.68 million) / x46,660
02/28 - Sun.: ¥x83,018,963 ($0.78 million) / x53,340
03/01 - Mon.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x22,000 *Discount Day*
03/02 - Tues.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
03/03 - Wed.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x22,000
03/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x16,000
03/05 - Fri.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x19,000
03/06 - Sat.: ¥68,704,711 ($0.63 million) / x40,982
03/07 - Sun.: ¥93,909,989 ($0.86 million) / x56,018
03/08 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/09 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x10,000
03/10 - Wed.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x15,000
03/11 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x11,000
03/12 - Fri.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x13,000
03/13 - Sat.: ¥39,715,728 ($0.36 million) / x27,895
03/14 - Sun: ¥47,132,572 ($0.43 million) / x33,105
03/15 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/16 - Tues.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/17 - Wed.: ¥20,000,000 ($0.18 million) / x16,000
03/18 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/19 - Fri.: ¥22,000,000 ($0.20 million) / x16,000
03/19 - Sat.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/20 - Sun.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/21 - Mon.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000 *est.*
03/22 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x9,000 *est.*
03/23 - Wed.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x14,000 *est.*
03/24 - Thur.: ¥15,000,000 ($0.14 million) / x11,000 *est.*
03/25 - Fri.: ¥24,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x17,000 *est.*
03/26 - Sat.: ¥114,000,000 ($1.04 million) / x72,000 *est.*

163-Day Cumulative Total: ¥38,978,137,650 ($372.89 million) / 28,257,311 Admissions

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the exact actual total.

And with that monster of a Saturday (estimated of course), it's likely already broken the 24th Weekend Record in a single-day. And as mentioned earlier, this is the film's biggest single-day in 75(!) days, dating all the way back to January 11th.

MAPPA wasn't unusually huge in the past, but they are now. They've expanded extremely quickly (and arguably recklessly) from 2017 and have gained a reputation for being eager hired hands who will take on any project, no matter how extreme the schedule (and thus the inevitable crunch). It's why you see then appearing in so many high profile productions these days.

A bit more about how they've changed in the last few years and how they currently operate can be found in this article which explains why them jumping in on Shingeki wasn't a surprise to industry watchers: https://blog.sakugabooru.com/2020/06/02 ... mappa-otp/

So, Demon Slayer will hit around 150k admissions this weekend, if Sunday equals Saturday (although I think it will be a bit lower). If the 1 million examples go, Demon Slayer must succeed in attracting another 850K people in 5 days, I think it will not even make a quarter of that. If Demon Slayer reaches 200k admissions over the next 5 days it will be fine already. The problem is that after there will still be more than 650k of gifts left. And even after the 2 weeks of events it will be difficult to sell all this. I hope the ¥42Bn and the 30 millions admissions are still possible despite everything.

I kind of wish they didn't announce how many gifts were available because if it doesn't sell 1 million in five days, people are going to (somehow) assume it's disappointing or something bizarre when it's shattering records by 2-3x the previous highs in its 24th week. This giveaway, as well as the one next weekend, is meant to add more money, sure, but it's also meant to provide all the fans that made it the biggest film ever with a near-guaranteed chance of receiving an exclusive gift when many missed out back in November and December.

It doesn't need to sell any certain amount. Not 1 ticket more. It could lose 4 million admissions and be in the same position. It has broken the records (and is still breaking records), and the goal posts just keep getting moved because it ends up reaching certain milestone afterwards. After it surpassed Spirited Away, ¥35 billion became the goal. It did that. Then ¥36 billion, ¥37 billion, etc. And when it breaks ¥40 billion in the next 10 days or so, then people are going to move the goal posts again to ¥41 billion+.

I understand wondering where it could end up once it reaches different marks, but it's already succeeded in achieving all the goals. Everything since December 29th, 89 days ago, has just been seeing how high it can go. Have to admit I kind of wish they'd move the home video release up a couple months so it ends after reaching ¥40 billion.

"And even after the 2 weeks of events it will be difficult to sell all this."
it doesn't need to sell all in 2 weeks, no deadline for that. it can sell from now till middle June when the digital version available.

It doesn't need to sell all the gifts, really. The prospect of getting 1 million admission in a week, its 24th week in release, was a truly crazy prospect to begin with, and one that was even taken into consideration because of how big this movie is. Even selling half of that amount would already be incredible.

Yes, I just want this film to reach ¥42Bn and 30 million admissions (and maybe even $400mn ? Even if it will be very difficult). It doesn't matter how long or how it hits those numbers. I want the best for Demon Slayer.

Amazing! A ¥110m+ and 1m Saturday must easily be an overall record for biggest 163! day Worldwide. There are no more words left to describe this run.

Corpse, will Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday / Thursday / Friday look like Saturday and Sunday this week ? Or will it be weaker / stronger ?

Was impressed to see it beats Titanic's Day 163 take ($846k), but E.T.'s was $1.3m (this was the weekend before it's Thanksgiving boost).

Wasn't ET a re-release by then?

Need to wait and see. This isn't a normal release and no one knows anything on how it'll perform.

I'm not going to predict or project anything for it outside of Weekend Forecasts/Estimates for the remainder of its run.

Here is the full list of every Milla Jovovich film (lead or supporting role) that has Japan as its #1 international market. Japan is even the #1 overall market for half of them and they're marked with an asterisk. She's among the biggest international draws, both male and female, in the market. And accounting for just female stars, she's really just behind Angelina Jolie (but might have more #1 films than her).

List of Milla Jovovich films with Japan as their #1 International Market:

Monster Hunter
The Fourth Kind
Cymbeline*
A Perfect Getaway
The Three Musketeers (2011)*
Stone*
45*
Ultraviolet
Future World*
Resident Evil
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
Resident Evil: Extinction
Resident Evil: Afterlife*
Resident Evil: Retribution*

*#1 overall market.

Monster Hunter has already joined this list after 3 days with Japan as its biggest international market, and it could also become its biggest overall market as well.

I assume at least some weekend drop is because the other two opened on a Saturday and this one opened on a Friday, but it's definitely still down overall (its 3-day estimated total being equal to the previous films' 2-day).

Probably just a factor of it now being 8 years since the TV series ended, and each of these Finale films taking way too long to be released. Part 2 came in at ¥550m to Part 1's ¥700m so it was already on its way down. If they're all two years apart and there's six of them, Finale is gonna wrap up ~15 years after the series started, which is just ridiculous.

That explains it. I didn't go back and check and just assumed they had opened on Friday too since this one did. So since this is such a fanbase-driven film, of course its opening weekend (Sat. and Sun.) is going to be way down due to so many coming out on Friday. The 3-day is indeed pretty similar to the opening weekends of its predecessors, so I really don't think it lost many people since all the Friday fans would have turned out on Saturday and Sunday instead.

Biggest Twenty-Fourth Weekends (2000-)
¥195.0 million ($1.8 million), +135%, ¥39.06 billion ($373.6 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Est.*
¥101.0 million ($0.9 million), -18%, ¥24.04 billion ($227.9 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥x60.0 million ($0.5 million), -10%, ¥28.85 billion ($237.4 million) - Spirited Away (2001)

New record.

I'll add the Biggest 25th-28th Weekends in a future post ahead of next weekend. And note that at this stage, I've excluded any films with 24th-onward weekends that didn't at least gross ¥10 million. But I didn't actually find any other films to even include with that rule since most have wrapped up or fallen to just a few theaters where tracking isn't available (and well below ¥10 million), so all weekends moving forward will just be these three films.