I saw an interesting Japanese comment on YouTube that I translated with Google. It said it appreciated the Korean aspect of Elemental which it identified as spicy hot food and doing the big bow. I wonder if there is wider appreciation of the Korean aspect of the movie in the Japanese audience.

I think Elemental might be constrained seat-wise in some Tokyo area theaters, where it seems to sell out auditoriums in the showtimes around noon.

It's plain to see it sells the highest proportion of its seats out of the major releases.

I think Elemental could very well have its best day yet in terms of tracked theaters. And if not, it could easily happen Saturday and/or Sunday too.

So I was a little off on barbie... no one saw anything though.

It makes sense for the holidays to get pretty crazy in jp though, given this is probably the leggiest market in the world, films can coexist much easier without eating each other

Obon Festival is one of the three major holiday periods at the box office, the other two being New Year (first week of January) and Golden Week (end of April and beginning of May). They're nicely spaced out by roughly 4 months, so there's always one to look forward to before too long.

Of the three, Obon Festival is probably slightly the strongest since it occurs in the middle of summer vacation (which is mid-July through end of August) which already provides a boost for any film with a younger-skew. This is why so many notable films open in July and August, and it can be a very crowded 6 week period. It's the longest period students are out of school during the year, and then various workplaces are closed for Obon Festival, so it's the perfect time where everyone who wants to see a movie has the time to do so.

Yeah I was just astonished at the wide variety of movies getting good sales. I've only tracked Japanese box office once before, like with Zootopia. And that movie ended its run before Obon began.

I generally only get into the weeds with box office when it's a movie I really like.

That's Obon Festival. Haha. The next seven or eight days will be similar to this unless the typhoon puts a damper on a couple of days next week (Monday/Tuesday).

There's nothing "huge" this Obon, but there's a half dozen films doing good, respectable numbers at least. Although Barbie, unless it picks up later in the day (which is possible), is looking to disappoint. And if it does, it shouldn't be considered surprising. It had a lot to overcome. Still early, don't want to call it a disappointment yet, but the morning sales were weak and has it outside the top 5.

This is an absolutely insane day at the movies in Japan though.

Anecdotally I can see Elemental selling up the mostly late morning/early afternoon shows it has. Especially in Tokyo but that might be expected. So I expect to see large jumps in the mimorin count around then.

It ranked third this past weekend, not fourth, so error there on Crunchyroll's part. You can find the weekend actuals on the last page (about half way down).

And they're using the 98% to compare YEN totals after four weeks, not USD. It's 33% behind in USD ($38m vs $57m). In Yen it's tracking pretty close, but in USD it's way down (nearly $20m) because the exchange rate remains at 20/25 year lows. So $100 million is very unlikely. In USD, it's probably aiming for around $70 million.

How Do You Live? (or The Boy and the Heron) didn't make the Biggest 4th Weekend Chart, having grossed ¥388,949,700 ($2.7 million) which keeps it pretty far off the list, but I can still share the chart for you.

Biggest Fourth (4th) Weekends (2000-):

¥1.773 billion ($17.1 million), -29%, ¥20.48 billion ($195.3 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
__________
¥1.209 billion ($8.7 million), +48%, ¥11.45 billion ($85.2 million) - One Piece Film Red (2022)
¥1.190 billion ($8.8 million), +01%, ¥10.30 billion ($76.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Black Iron Submarine (2023)*
¥1.076 billion ($10.5 million), -05%, ¥8.53 billion ($83.0 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.027 billion ($9.2 million), +05%, ¥9.77 billion ($87.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
__________
¥972.2 million ($7.7 million), -19%, ¥8.43 billion ($67.0 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million ($9.2 million), -06%, ¥8.45 billion ($81.4 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥922.9 million ($7.7 million), -21%, ¥8.13 billion ($67.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥879.2 million ($8.1 million), -12%, ¥7.22 billion ($66.6 million) - Aladdin (2019)
¥850.9 million ($8.3 million), -04%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥780.1 million ($7.1 million), -26%, ¥7.34 billion ($67.1 million) - Frozen II (2019)
¥765.7 million ($6.3 million), +07%, ¥7.20 billion ($60.4 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥755.2 million ($7.1 million), -03%, ¥7.21 billion ($67.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥747.5 million ($5.6 million), -11%, ¥7.60 billion ($54.1 million) - Suzume (2022)
¥742.8 million ($5.4 million), -30%, ¥9.14 billion ($66.9 million) - The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)*
¥733.5 million ($6.8 million), -27%, ¥7.11 billion ($65.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
__________
¥683.5 million ($5.5 million), -27%, ¥7.45 billion ($61.3 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million ($8.1 million), -05%, ¥6.23 billion ($76.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥645.2 million ($6.1 million), -17%, ¥7.51 billion ($70.0 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
¥619.6 million ($5.3 million), -25%, ¥8.24 billion ($68.7 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥618.6 million ($6.4 million), -23%, ¥6.02 billion ($62.3 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million ($7.1 million), +15%, ¥5.41 billion ($62.6 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million ($5.1 million), -22%, ¥7.55 billion ($63.1 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥594.3 million ($4.5 million), -11%, ¥5.65 billion ($43.0 million) - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
¥587.1 million ($5.3 million), -05%, ¥7.52 billion ($68.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥575.3 million ($5.1 million), -35%, ¥7.94 billion ($70.4 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥565.4 million ($5.3 million), -12%, ¥5.96 billion ($56.0 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million ($4.7 million), -34%, ¥5.91 billion ($49.2 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥551.7 million ($5.1 million), -09%, ¥6.22 billion ($57.1 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥546.1 million ($4.6 million), -18%, ¥5.72 billion ($48.6 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥543.9 million ($6.6 million), -07%, ¥5.77 billion ($70.5 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million ($5.1 million), +07%, ¥5.18 billion ($48.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million ($4.8 million), -26%, ¥6.15 billion ($55.7 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million ($5.7 million), -52%, ¥8.38 billion ($91.6 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million ($4.7 million), -01%, ¥3.83 billion ($34.9 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million ($5.1 million), +09%, ¥5.81 billion ($56.8 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million ($4.5 million), -01%, ¥6.37 billion ($55.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million ($5.2 million), -07%, ¥5.60 billion ($57.5 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million ($5.6 million), -20%, ¥5.93 billion ($65.2 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million ($3.8 million), -09%, ¥4.19 billion ($31.6 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million ($4.4 million), -27%, ¥6.26 billion ($55.6 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

2-Day (Past-2022)
*3-Day (2023-Present)

OBON FESTIVAL 2023 - DAILY ESTIMATES (~08/10-18)

THURSDAY (08/10):
¥105 million ($730,000),-13%, ¥2.69 billion ($18.8 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 14
¥80 million ($556,000), 0, ¥677m ($4.7 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 7
¥80 million ($556,000), -01%, ¥5.79 billion ($40.8 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 28
¥80 million ($556,000), +02%, ¥3.31 billion ($23.3 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 21
¥75 million ($521,000), 0, ¥727m ($5.1 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 7

% change vs last week.

Obon Festival doesn't have an exact, official start, but it's usually around the 10th/11th when we begin to see its impact on the box office. And, as seen above, Thursday's numbers indicate it's begun, but not in full effect yet which should be tomorrow.

Since this upcoming weekend falls between the start and end dates of the holiday period this year, I also suspect we may see some weekend increases.

https://news.livedoor.com/lite/article_detail/24779932/

Confirmation that HDYL is the most expensive Japanese movie ever, passing Kaguya

Crunchyroll reports that Hayao Miyazaki's latest anime feature film The Boy and the Heron dropped to fourth place in its fourth weekend. The film's cumulative total domestic gross reached 5.48 billion yen (38.46 million USD) on 3.61 million admissions, 98% of the first four-week gross of Miyazaki's previous film in 2013, The Wind Rises. I also think the budget for 'How Do You Live' exceeded 40 or 50 million. I think it'll make a profit for Ghibli.

If it grossed 98% of The Wind Rises at the same time, does this still mean The Boy and the Heron has a chance of reaching 100 million? I'd love to see the best 4th weekends of all time Corpse when you update.

Except Kingdom might be closer to ¥450/500m in its third weekend based on this Thursday.

Looks like the Obon Festival boost began to take effect late into Thursday to me. It's pretty much even with Monday for the openers, and all the holdovers held very, very well. MI7 and HDYL flat with last week (MI7 may have increased), Kingdom 3 down under 15%, as was Mario and Indiana Jones. And lots of good holds (including increases) for films outside the top 10 too.

I need to go back and check past Obon Festivals, but I think it's been several years since the weekend frame itself landed in the middle of the holiday period and not before/after it, so we could see some increases across the board this weekend.

I'll probably begin posting the Obon Festival Daily Estimates beginning with today (Thursday). Thursday wasn't fully impacted by it, but it's clear it's the beginning of the boost. It'll last through ~August 18th, but will sort of be extended to August 20th due to the weekend.

Yeah, you're right on second thought. Kingdom will win the weekend.

And since it looks to potentially impact ~Monday-Wednesday, if it's rough, keep an eye on this weekend and next. If the weekdays are possibly going to be deflated, then the weekends are likely to be inflated as a result.

Unfortunately, yes. The last typhoon (hitting South Korea now) mostly just affected southwest Japan, so it didn't have much of any impact on the box-office. (Although it still caused some damage, especially on Okinawa.)

The one on its way now is still too far away to determine where it might be targeting, but it's definitely going to at least bring heavy rain and wind to Honshu (where the vast majority of the box-office business comes from). I think it's expected to begin impacting Japan on Monday and into Tuesday, and some rain/winds can be expected for another day or two after that.

So... worst-case it could deflate the box office over the Obon Festival period. But it has to be pretty bad to do so. These aren't rare occurrences or anything, so the majority don't hurt the box-office much. But we need to wait a couple more days to see where it's actually going to hit (and then go) since the model has it all over the place right now. Hopefully it moves farther north in the coming days.

Are there any weather concerns for the Obon holiday period? I know there was a typhoon a day ago, which is now affecting South Korea...

Barbie's theater count is also a little "low." 325 isn't bad or anything, but being under 350 (or even 360/370 now) is odd. 52.6% of its theaters are accounted for above, versus the more regular ~45% or so that you see for many other films above.

Aeon is playing it at 10/11 fewer theaters than a normal wide release (83 vs 93/94), so that's some of it, so I wonder what other chains aren't playing it quite as wide to account for the other 30-50 theaters a bigger release usually has. I suppose it could be a few theaters per chain to get that total, but it seems a little higher where at least one other chain decided to skip on it at a lot of their locations

But... this isn't *that* big a deal. Just noting that it while it's playing wide, it's in about 15% fewer theaters than expected. (Kinda like if something in the US got ~3400 theaters instead of an expected ~4000 or so.) And with almost 53% of its theater count, and likely a higher percentage than that in seating coming from the Mimorin theaters, it's going to skew pretty heavily toward them and urban in general.

Taking Mimorin's admissions and multiplying that by ~1.8-2 (depending on the genre of film) can give you a fair estimate for nationwide admissions, but I'd probably use ~1.6/1.7 for Barbie.

Mimorin Seats for August 11th, Friday

*1　277499　944　294.0　2.7　172　376　45.7%　キングダム 運命の炎
*2　194000　815　238.0　3.8　170　366　46.4%　しん次元！クレヨンしんちゃんＴＨＥ ＭＯＶＩＥ 超能力大決戦 ～とべとべ手巻き寿司～
*3　153995　856　179.9　5.4　173　386　44.8%　君たちはどう生きるか
*4　151560　825　183.7　5.0　171　325　52.6%　バービー
*5　139765　774　180.6　5.0　172　364　47.3%　マイ・エレメント
*6　131002　748　175.1　5.5　174　384　45.3%　ミッション：インポッシブル／デッドレコニング ＰＡＲＴ ＯＮＥ
*7　122331　821　149.0　6.3　167　333　50.2%　リボルバー・リリー
*8　110227　729　151.2　6.3　172　347　49.6%　トランスフォーマー／ビースト覚醒
*9　*90745　571　158.9　6.3　123　222　55.4%　ミンナのウタ
I guess Barbie does better here than it does at AEON.

Elemental lost seats but I think the average number of seats per show went up. I think the theaters are strategically giving it more shows around the afternoon, when it's strongest.

Also How Do You Live is hanging in there I think because of the IMAX push.

Overall looks like another dead heat weekend at the box office.

I expect Barbie to be pretty frontloaded, like Transformers. But I could be wrong.

Fallout opened the first weekend of August, so it would have received the Obon Festival bump before Dead Reckoning. We should see Dead Reckoning catch it this upcoming week and probably outgross it in the future. And while summer vacation doesn't benefit more adult-driven films too much, it still can just a bit so having that extra week to bank on (by opening in July) is helpful too.

Not 100% guaranteed, of course, but still more likely than not, IMO.

MI7 pacing behind Fallout, might not catch up unless Obon Festival boosts it a fair amount

Barbie looks odd. Many marked (50%+ full) showings in some urban locations as you mentioned, but it's also on just one screen at them, and that screen is a relatively small one (~200 seats). The more you go outside of Tokyo, the weaker it looks. Sales look rather poor in Osaka at the moment as well.

It's not going to disappoint, but it's also hard to gauge what it's capable of given the low seating and how sales appear so focused on the Tokyo area.

Kingdom 3 is probably going to be around ¥400m this weekend. We'll see what happens, but I don't think Barbie can do that with its seating, especially if sales outside Tokyo don't pick up. But it's early.