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Avatar 2 Predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55300		 Page 10 of 10
Author:  Shack [ Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The costs of Avatar 2-3-4 might have bled together a bit.
Author:  Thegun [ Fri Nov 25, 2022 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Agreed, and in the first they made profit points, which effects the budget to gross multiplier. If Cameron and Co get 25% of the profits again, that skews the multiplier to what the studio needs to break even.
Author:  lilmac [ Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I read somewhere years ago that the studio set aside some of the Avatar 1 profits for an eventual sequel. I can't imagine how much compounded interest would have grown that fund. If true, it's possible the sequels didn't really hit the Fox bottom line that much.
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Apparently the Weeknd will be featured on the soundtrack!

Here's to hoping this time it has a song that resonates. TGM's Lady Gaga song and WF's Rihanna song didn't seem to be that impactful compared to their predecessor's soundtracks. We all know the impact Cameron and music have had in the past (Titanic) so just elevates a movie to another level when the music is top notch as well.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
We will have social media reactions by the end of the day!
Author:  Rev [ Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
AVATAR 2 will be the first DIRECT sequel to top $2 BILLION
Author:  Barrabás [ Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Early social media reactions are overwhelmingly positive on the visuals/epicness and the final hour which apparently is very action-packed and emotional. Some criticism about thin characters/story.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Presales are also looking good. Very backloaded with Saturday presales already comfortably ahead of previews. I am thinking 180-200m OW and based on reactions thinking 800-1B domestic. Overseas is more complex with $ being strong and COVID still being a factor(plus the Russia war). Still think if China co-operates it should hit 1.5B+ OS.
Author:  Kenspy [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 10:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
yeah I'm thinking Avengers is definitely gone as the #2 film ($858m) domestically, and Star Wars is in trouble ($936m)

I'm tentatively thinking $950m
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I expect reviews will be similar to the first film, mid to high 80s and a lot of Oscar noms but no wins outside of techs
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The difference between Avatar in theaters and at home on tv has to be the greatest in all of cinematic history. It's no mystery why it was so beloved during its original run but constantly hated on by the next generation. That's the main reason why it has a great shot at dethroning The Force Awakens. I still don't know if it will though, the long ass runtime is gonna cut alot of repeat vieiwngs (you basically need four hours of free time to see, maybe more depending on how far you need to travel for imax.) Though the lack of any real competition for almost two months may offset that.

I have my ticket for 3pm next Thursday. The local(ish) imax isn't nearly as great as the Lincoln Center in New York that I saw the original, but my normal theater just wasn't gonna cut it for this one. :D
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Pretty bizarre this is finally coming out. If this is as much as a visual marvel (lol) as it's being said in early word then sky's for real the limit. Exciting.
Author:  O [ Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
There's no away I could see Avatar finish between $950M-999M. It's either below $950M or $1B. The studios and Cameron would never be able to pass it up even if it took 3+ re-releases saying it's the domestic market's first $1B film.

I am moderating my expectations still though. 13 years is a long time and some of the younger demos may be indifferent to it.

At the same time, TGM so compelled older moviegoers to show up that it became a zeitgeist younger audiences couldn't miss which actually made it have a strange pattern of oldest audience showing up first and then skewing younger and younger as the weeks went on from what I can recall.

If Avatar gets so far out of the gate everyone will need to see it even people who were indifferent about it to even stay in the loop. It's probably leaning toward that direction at this stage.

Also Dec. 2009 was challenging but I'm not sure if the economy feels like its set to fall off a cliff like it does now. Inflation impact at all? Will the economy be decent enough for people to do as many repeat viewings as they did for Avatar 1? No idea but will be interesting to see.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 2:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Dec 2009 was a year after the economy had collapsed, whereas late 2008, right after the crash, saw a lot of underperformances and was definitely affected by the recession. Hard to tell if it will affect movie grosses this time around. People are definitely feeling the crunch with essential goods climbing in prices, mortgages increasing for a lot of people, etc. But unemployment is low (3.7%), which was not the case in 2008/2009 when it peaked at 10%.

At the same time, there's literally nothing else with a big gross potential coming out in December so if people only have enough $$$ to take the family to watch just one movie this month it's going to be Avatar.
Author:  Algren [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Aren't movies considered a low-cost form of entertainment, and thus perform well in times of hardship?
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yes, the industry tends to boom during a recession - 2009 is a case in point. The whole year overper-perforrned.

The larger problem now is streaming and post covid behaviour. The paucity of releases is also hurting.

So the current economic situation will likely help not hinder Avatar 2.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Aren't movies considered a low-cost form of entertainment, and thus perform well in times of hardship?


Idk if that's true anymore with the cost of fuel, snacks and drinks are so much more expensive than they used to be, tickets as well.
Author:  O [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Throwing some stats out. Netflix had 12,268,000 total subscribers Q4 2009. Q4 2009 revenue of $444.5 million. Prime had 2 million members in 2009.

Today 200M people globally have prime accounts. Netflix has 223.09 subscribers as of Q3 2022.

There's also Disney+ and the range of other streamers.

We really haven't seen a data point of a recession and sizable penetration of streaming platforms until the second half of this year. So we'll be testing to see just how recession proof the theatrical business is in a recession. Netflix is 20X bigger and Prime is 100X bigger.

I think Avatar will be fine since it's the must see "theatrical movie" for the season if people choose 1 movie but we haven't had an inflation driven recession I believe since 1981/1982 so streaming + inflation cost conscious consumers is a whole new macroenvironment we haven't ever seen before.

Also not sure if it was from a bad product, strike, recession, etc. but 1981's box office dropped a whopping 45.3% annually to $898,686,960 with 56 movies from $1,642,400,771 the year earlier with 68 movies but that had SW Ep. 5. Outside of 2020 Covid drop, 1981 saw the worst drop for annual box office out of all data Mojo has listed and the key trend for that year's economic downturn, inflation!
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Barrabás wrote:
Algren wrote:
Aren't movies considered a low-cost form of entertainment, and thus perform well in times of hardship?


Idk if that's true anymore with the cost of fuel, snacks and drinks are so much more expensive than they used to be, tickets as well.


FYI gas prices here domestic are below what was year back and expected to go further down. I dont see gas price stopping people from going to movies here nor will popcorn prices stop them.

China/Korea Presales are looking fantastic as well. I am expecting this to challenge Endgame numbers in those markets. China despite challenges is expected to open 70%+ of theaters for Avatar and there is no competition.
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/a ... r-AA15k3HZ

Quote:
Disney, which is backing the ambitious sequel, says ticket sales were 124% ahead of “Avatar,” roughly 70% ahead of “Top Gun: Maverick” and 13% ahead of “Jurassic World: Dominion.” Though “The Way of Water” is expected to reach blockbuster status, it may fall short of record-setting numbers in its inaugural weekend. The studio is also reporting that initial returns were 12% behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and 23% behind “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in comparable markets, two recent tentpoles that notched mega debuts.
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