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 Avatar 2 Predictions 
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Corpse wrote:
James Cameron has become the Martin/Rothfuss of cinema.
At least those guys work on other projects while delaying the ones their audience actually wants. :funny:

Cameron should have made a small movie in between Avatars. Even just something like Aliens of the Deep would have been fine. I mean the man is clearly happy with his life, but as a fan it feels like a waste of talent.


Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:50 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Looks like this is set for this year... should be interesting! Hopefully teaser soon.


Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:54 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Even with an enormous dropoff, minimum should be 350m total with holiday legs. I think more likely 500-550m.


Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:22 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
at minimum :D
$500m DOM
$1.5 BILLION WW

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Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:52 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Cameron seems to be going for an MCU contrast while still doing his usual broad appeal schtick. The teaser is unlike any blockbuster trailer I've seen. Has the tone of an arthouse flick, which couples with the visuals to make it seem like an escapism dream, added to which is the appeal-draw of an emphasis on the family unit.

This is actually a harder sell than the first Avatar was. The new generation have had their blockbuster expectations defined by MCU movies the past decade, and there's a cynical vibe from audiences that didn't see the first in big-screen-3D that it was a mediocre Pocahontas recycle. So there'll be at least a small market portion that'll avoid it for torrenting no matter the WOM.

I think it'll make more than the first.

This teaser by contrast to the Top Gun and Thor trailers that played beforehand has a way better strategy. Cameron's easy to have faith in already, but him aside, it's hard to understate how clever an introduction he's gone for.

Pandora offers the ultimate cinematic escape. The dreamy music lets that speak for itself. A novel escape following COVID is exactly what most moviegoers will be looking for. And the tonal juxtaposition to the loud business of the MCU makes the film's case seem even stronger.

Then there's the broad nature of its contents: masculine action, feminine beauty, a universal appeal to the "fortress of family".

I'm guessing it'll be one of the few releases that manages to be both frontloaded and backloaded: huge influx the first few weeks, then a steeper drop, then a long, smooth taper. Fans of the first will rush in, which WOM won't be able to compete with, and then WOM + repeat viewings will keep the drops relatively small after the first month.

Also possible that Cameron's taking literally the idea of a teaser, in more ways than the story. That in terms of audience appeal he's only so far showing 1 card of many. The first Avatar in 3D was the most visually jaw-dropping release since the first Star Wars. Lines of ticketholders went around blocks for weeks. This is the first franchise he's built from the ground up, and the foundation is already there. His focus is thus narrowed to pushing his own envelope, and he's got a way bigger advantage in doing so than he's ever had before.

And let's not forget he's the industry's most effective promoter. By December, the hype will be bigger than anything else released this year, if not next year as well.

Early prediction: $875m domestic, $3BN WW (depending on China)


Sun May 08, 2022 8:38 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Trailer got a great reaction with Doctor Strange. Thinking the holidays are gonna propel this to a huge total. Will be this or black panther as the year end number one


Sun May 08, 2022 9:56 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Well one thing this will do is temporarily bring back people seeing movies in 3D. That will help its box office for sure.


Sun May 08, 2022 10:22 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions


The MFer is going to do it again

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Mon May 09, 2022 2:29 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yup it definitely captures the magic of being back in Pandora. The best part of Avatar was the world that Cameron built. The music also hit the feels too. I think I'll watch the first one again sometime this week.


Mon May 09, 2022 2:02 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The ride at Animal Kingdom is so good. Wish they would build it at Disneyland.

This box office run is gonna be interesting. Opening probably won't be mother of god considering business will probably be spread out during the holidays (and especially if most people want to see it on the biggest screen possible) but who knows.


Mon May 09, 2022 2:36 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Rev wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:41 pm
Prediction before the trailer drops next year during the SUPER BOWL :D (just a guess)

$500m domestic
$1b international
$1.5 billion worldwide


UPDATE

$750m domestic
$1.25b international
$2 BILLION worldwide

King James Cameron :cool:
will be the only director to have, not only two, but THREE films gross $2 billion+ :noway:
by the time he's done with the Avatar sequels :funny: it'll be 6

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Mon May 09, 2022 4:04 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The moment that really sold the original is when the blue girl meets the human guy in his human form and saves him. Up until that moment it was just another sci-fi action movie, then that scene happened and it became about human (well, alien to human) connection. Cameron is the master at finding those moments in the midst of a grand high concept setting.

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Mon May 09, 2022 4:05 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Quote:
“With the first Avatar, we pushed the limits of the big screen. With the new Avatar films, we are pushing those limits even farther, with 3D, with high dynamic range, with high frame rate, higher resolutions, and a much greater reality in our visual effects.” - James Cameron at CinemaCon.


I'm only going to theaters that made the necessary upgrades, so I can see this the way it's made to be seen :D

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Mon May 09, 2022 4:18 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Get hype! I cannot wait. Will see it at least 4x in theaters.

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Mon May 09, 2022 9:19 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Personally - this doesn't look like it brings anything new to the table. I'd peg it at $450-$550m total which would be huge. However, judging by people I know and online comments - there still seems to be a massive base for it so it will probably make $700m

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Mon May 09, 2022 9:29 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
You know what.....

Fuck it, I think this will be huge. $285M OW / $900M DOM / $3B WW

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Tue May 10, 2022 3:28 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I still haven't seen the first one (yes, sue me) and I have to say the trailer hasn't lifted my interest for the sequels at all.


Tue May 10, 2022 7:12 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
OS numbers won't be the same as Avatar (2009) but yes $3000M easily happening

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Tue May 10, 2022 8:33 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The release date is still perfect for it. Even a 70m opening can still lead easily to 300m total.

I'd think as long as it gets positive reviews the rush factor will be significantly more than for the first film. Feeling 200m OW and 650m+ total


Tue May 10, 2022 9:05 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Cynosure wrote:
I still haven't seen the first one (yes, sue me) and I have to say the trailer hasn't lifted my interest for the sequels at all.


The original one is coming back to theaters in September :thumbsup: with 10+ years of updated VFX. SEE IT!!!!

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Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Barrabás wrote:
You know what.....

Fuck it, I think this will be huge. $285M OW / $900M DOM / $3B WW


Realistic.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/all-time-inflation-adjusted

First is over $900M adjusted. This one has a legacy audience from the first + a new generation. And it'll probably be a better movie.

Lowballing it below the original contradicts Cameron's track record. There's zero doubt that he'll not only match the appeal of the first, but probably best it.


Wed May 11, 2022 1:18 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
AVATAR
Opening Weekend: $77,025,481


AVATAR 2 should easily double that :D I'm thinking around 175m-200m for now.

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Wed May 11, 2022 7:51 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
movieman449 wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
You know what.....

Fuck it, I think this will be huge. $285M OW / $900M DOM / $3B WW


Realistic.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/cumulative/all-time-inflation-adjusted

First is over $900M adjusted. This one has a legacy audience from the first + a new generation. And it'll probably be a better movie.

Lowballing it below the original contradicts Cameron's track record. There's zero doubt that he'll not only match the appeal of the first, but probably best it.



5 of top 11 are Star Wars
9 of top 11 come from just 3 people
It’s crazy how successful Cameron’s last two films were. They are completely different.

But yes, if the movie is good then I think $700m DOM is the floor. $800-$850m is where I’m at right now.

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Wed May 11, 2022 12:01 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Internationally I'm feeling this will recapture a lot of the box office momentum the first one had, especially in APAC. Domestically still not convinced. Think the floor is a lot lower for this one and believe BP2's opening 4 weeks earlier is going to be a zeitgeist domestic moviegoing event.

Avatar 1's domestic (26.7%), overseas (73.3%) was the breakdown in 2009. I could see this shift even more dramatically where Avatar 2 does 15% domestic to 85% overseas and still do $3B WW.


Wed May 11, 2022 12:21 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yeah I made some comments on FB about the trailer being "nothing special" and looks like many people outside of the US took offense and love the original. So something like 20/80 in favour of OS is likely.

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Wed May 11, 2022 7:06 pm
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