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 The Boxoffice Derby Thread! 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Haven't yet been updated because we are waiting for a few actuals.

EDIT: OK I now see the problem. Its just that due to rushed new game creation we are unable to update "actuals" for previous game. We will make sure that this does not happen going forward.


Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:40 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Sorry about that breakingcampeon. Shack was the winner of that James Bond Derby.

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Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:29 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
We will check if we are still able to enter the actuals for the missing weekend later sometime.


Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:09 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
New game is up and running. Enter your predictions! Congrats again to WandaLegion for winning the Dune prize! It was a photo finish with King.


Four new openers.

My Hero Academia
Antlers
Last Night in Soho
A Mouthful of Air

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Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:39 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Does anyone have Mouthful of Air estimates? The supposed ‘wide’ release was only 816 theaters.

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Sun Oct 31, 2021 5:01 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Box Office Mojo says A Mouthful of Air actuals are $130,701k
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1 ... =bo_se_r_1


Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:40 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Thank you :thumbsup:


Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:07 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
breakingcampeon wrote:
Box Office Mojo says A Mouthful of Air actuals are $130,701k
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1 ... =bo_se_r_1



Thank you!



Next cash giveaways will be for the Spiderman and Matrix weekends. Get hyped!

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Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:06 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Thanksgiving weekend Derby is up!


...for the 3 day weekend.

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Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:19 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
New Derby is up! No openers. :-D

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Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:00 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Christmas weekend Derby is up!


For reference:
https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-ch ... 2010/12/24

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Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:31 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd?


Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:33 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
For the record, Wanda got Radhe Shyam exactly right with his $0.0 prediction.

The Derby default for non tracking movies is $0.1m. He was spot on at zero dollars. lol

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Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:16 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
WandaLegion wrote:
Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd?


Curious, how do you know BTS will make $0.0? I would love to know. These films pop out of nowhere and now I have to guess whether or not they are one-week wonders.

I almost exclusively use https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule , specifically the wide releases as a guide for what to add (JJK did not show up as a wide release the week prior to its rollout)

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Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:22 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
lilmac wrote:
WandaLegion wrote:
Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd?


Curious, how do you know BTS will make $0.0? I would love to know. These films pop out of nowhere and now I have to guess whether or not they are one-week wonders.

I almost exclusively use https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule , specifically the wide releases as a guide for what to add (JJK did not show up as a wide release the week prior to its rollout)


I took over pricing for a player run version of the fantasy movie league a little over a year ago, so I have to have pretty detailed numerical forecasts of the upcoming weekend gross by Monday to ensure that goes well. The BOT buzz thread can be pretty useful for that, I also look at BOP long range tracking.

In the case of BTS it was a one day “live” concert event for some megapopular Korean pop group rather than a real movie per se — last weekend the gross was equal to Saturday daily, with $0 on Fri and Sun. So naturally no shows on any other days.

The BOT derby didn’t have JJK this week either, and when I asked over there the reason was basically that they were very uncertain how it would do. We had it penciled in for ~13M last mon for fml pricing based on robust presales and comparing performance to recent anime movies like MHA: World Heroes Mission and Demonn Slayer Infinity Train in other markets.


Wed Mar 23, 2022 5:56 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
I’m going to be posting a brief discussion of the likely top 10+some other possibilities on Sunday on BOT going forward, I’d be happy to cross post here if it’s useful. Example below (from last Sun, unactionable now but just to give an idea):


“For next weekend I’d hope to see something like:
Lost City
Batman
RRR
Uncharted
JJK
Dog
NWH
X
Sing
Nile

I think that’s probably the top 10, barring a wild hold from Kashmir files or over performance from infinite storm.“


Wed Mar 23, 2022 6:01 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Thanks!

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Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:05 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Next wknd top 10 should be:
Morbius
Lost City
Bat
Uncharted
RRR
JJK
NWH
Dog
X
Sing

Main wildcard is contractor, but it will be in a pretty dubious number of locations and may not even report.

Everything everywhere all at once could top sing depending on how much it expands, an option on the more volatile side.


Sun Mar 27, 2022 5:21 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Many thanks.

WandaLegion wrote:
Next wknd top 10 should be:
Morbius
Lost City
Bat
Uncharted
RRR
JJK
NWH
Dog
X
Sing

Main wildcard is contractor, but it will be in a pretty dubious number of locations and may not even report.

Everything everywhere all at once could top sing depending on how much it expands, an option on the more volatile side.

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I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.

I was blind, but now I see.


Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:44 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Pretty clear top 10 next weekend of:
Sonic
Morbius
Ambulance
Lost City
Batman
EEAAO
Uncharted
NWH
Dog 
JJK  

EEAAO reported expanding to ~1200 locs


Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:29 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Nice! Thanks.

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I was blind, but now I see.


Mon Apr 04, 2022 7:11 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
JJK kicked for actuals being too annoying I assume? More than fair XD


Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:23 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Top 9 should be:

Dumbledore

Sonic

Lost City

EeAAO

Stu

Ambulance

Morbius

Batman

Uncharted



JJK is probably favored to round out the top 10 if you don't mind the reporting. Otherwise there's NWH, getting pretty small.


Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:08 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
Not including NWH. You’re right. It’s too small. Appreciate the list. I’ll include JJK.

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I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.

I was blind, but now I see.


Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:37 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
The current JJK number in the Derby estimate for the April 15th weekend is a placeholder until we see the actuals.

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I was blind, but now I see.


Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:47 pm
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