A carry-over of a thread I created elsewhere. So far 4 films have made it and by the looks of things possibly 3 more. Tying the record in 2002 for 7 movies reaching $200+ million in one year.

(Bold has already met mark)

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Shrek 2
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
4. Spider-Man 2

Locks:
5. Incredibles

Greater than 75%:
6. Meet the Fockers
7. Ocean's Twelve

Less than 25%:
Shark Tale

Less than 10%
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
SpongeBob Squarepants
Polar Express

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Shrek 2
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
4. Spider-Man 2

Locks
5. The Incredibles

Great Chance
6. Ocean's Twelve
7. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Good Chance
8. Shark Tale
9. Meet the Fockers

So-So Chance
10. The Polar Express
11. Alexander

The Incredibles will make it, O12 probably, Lemony Snicket likely (look at Carrey's last two blockbuster comedies). Shark Tale could make it if it keeps up with the great legs, and Fockers has a shot. Polar Express faces too much competition from The Incredibles, and Alexander has about as much a chance as Troy had (maybe less).

Locks:
Incredibles

Greater than 75%:
Lemony Snicket

Less than 25%:
Meet The Fockers
Ocean's Twelve

Nothing else stand's a chance.

I think that the only lock right now is The Incredibles.

I doubt we will have more then 6 this year. Incredibles and Meet The Fockers, and that's it. I would give Lemony Snicket and outside shot though.

What are some of the reasons people are thinking Lemony snickets will do well or have a shot at $150+m? Does it fill the void of where a Harry Potter could have been late in the year and/or it is reaping the rewards of bieng timed right to match the holiday season? Or is it cuz Carrey carries it?

1) A winter without Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings.
2) Jim Carrey
3) Family targeted
4) Maybe one of the best release dates of the year, at least the second half of the year.
5) Review proof.
6) *Slightly* edgy, could attract a larger audience than kids.

I would put it as a lock for $150 million + at this point although I would bet it would make somewhere in the range of $230 million. Phantom of the Opera, et al. is not going to fill the Lemony Snicket void. If Snicket does less than $200, then it will be a horrible, horrible holiday season at the box office.

Update 11/11

With the poor showing for Polar Express I have removed the film from any consideration at all from passing $200MM.

(Bold has already met mark)

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Shrek 2
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
4. Spider-Man 2

Locks:
5. Incredibles

Greater than 75%:
6. Meet the Fockers
7. Ocean's Twelve

Less than 25%:
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

Less than 10%
SpongeBob Squarepants

I think Ocean's Twelve and The Incredibles will do it. Lemony Snicket's ASOUE has a chance, but a rather slim one.

I never thought TPE had a chance. The Incredibles will make it 5. I'd pick Meet The Fockers to finish the year at 6, although Lemony Snicket might make it 7. I highly doubt Ocean's 12 will make it.

Update 11/21

Another one bites the dust, never thought SpongeBob had a chance but people kept on insisting it had such a large kiddie following. Just a few more days until I can official add The Incredibles to the "made list".

(Bold has already met mark)

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Shrek 2
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
4. Spider-Man 2

Locks:
5. The Incredibles

Greater than 75%:
6. Meet the Fockers

~50%:
7. Ocean's Twelve

Less than 25%:
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events

11/27

Congrats to The Incredibles, becoming the Fifth member of the $200MM+ club, and taking only 22 days to reach it!

The list is dwindling down and in a month or so we will know almost for sure what the final tally will be:

(Bold has already met mark)

1. The Passion of the Christ
2. Shrek 2
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
4. Spider-Man 2
5. The Incredibles

Greater than 75%:
6. Meet the Fockers (opening Dec. 22nd)

~50%:
7. Ocean's Twelve (opening Dec. 10th)

Less than 25%:
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events (opening Dec. 17th)

Personally, I think that Ocean's Twelve has a much higher chance to cross $200 million than Meet the Fockers.

You mixed their openings up. O12 is on the 10, Snicket is on the 17.

Ok thanks for the catch, will fix!

I'd give National Treasure about a 25% chance at crossing. It will probably fall hard next weekend, but it could pull a POTC.

I think you are right on here. It has a drop of less then 50% this weekend, and I think there is a real chance of it reaching 200m. Right now I would give it 192m.

This is the Pirates of the Caribbean of 2004.

If NT and Lemony Snicket do make it we can still break the record with 8 200m films.

I doubt that any movie for the rest of the year will make $200 million. I see National Treasure topping out at $165-170 million, Ocean's Twelve at $195 million, Meet the Fockers at $160-170 million and Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events at $150-180 million.

I agree with Lecter in that no film is guaranteed $200m in December.

However, the last non LOTR December (2000) we had What Women Want and Castaway combine for over $400m plus a batch of successful films coexisting.

I can see Oceans hitting $200m but Snicket ($180m) and Fockers ($155m) falling short.

Honestly, I don't see how O12 can beat Fockers. The success of a sequel has always depended on the reaction to the original. If the legs are any indiction, Meet the Parents had much better WOM then Ocean's Eleven. Not only did it have a much better multiplier, but it got it without help from the holidays of December. In fact, when it comes to holiday weekends, Meet the Parents mostly had, let's see, Columbus Day. :wink:

Furthermore, the marketing campaign for Meet the Fockers has been far better. O12's poster shows their feet. :? The trailers and especially the TV spots have been absolutely unfunny and forgetable. I think this is easily the worst marketing campaign for a film as anticipated as this since T3 at the very least, and likely worse then anything this decade IMO. I'm not even sure that it will reach 100m.

There is one problem that I ave with Meet the Fockers. Well, actually two and they are called Analyze That and Ten Whole Yards. Both were sequels to surprisingly successful and leggy comedies and both underperformed. While I don't see Meet the Fockers bombing like those did, there is certainly a chance that it will not exceed anyone's expectations. It will open pretty big, but I doubt it'll have the original's legs. Also what speaks in favor of O12's is the fact that it has the whole December ahead of it when it opens and I consider that an advantage. As for the marketing, well, true, it's not good, but this movie is a sure hit with its cast and the predecessor's great word of mouth and success.

Im not to fascinated with meet the fockers.

KJ

I agree about the O12 marketing. Looks like WB has dropped the ball for what must be the 100th time in the last half a dozen years or so. No studio turns gold BO potential to bronze as WB does.

Actually, those are two of the main reasons I doubt O12's. Both of those bombed because of very poor marketing. Sure you can have a fanbase, and a well loved original film, but if the marketing is very poor you will not get that audience into theaters. The marketing for O12 reminds me in so many ways of Analyze That. At the time of the BOM boards I was predicting a 16m opening for AT, the lowest prediction around. At the time, and even today I still believe that it could have had a 130m total if marketed right. Instead WB had a bunch of very boring commercials running. They are easily the most inept at marketing sequels. I'm sure you can think of the long list of disappointments yourself. Universal on the other hand certainly has not had a bad track record with sequels: American Pie, The Mummy, Bourne.

In this way I think it is O12 that is comparable to those other films you mention, certainly not Meet the Fockers, which might not have the best marketing, but it's solid and funny.



I would say it's just the opposite. In the past films released in late December have always averaged better legs then those released earlier in the month. The reason is simple: if a film has the holidays early in its run it will benefit more from them. This reminds me of when Chamber of Secrets was released. At the time WB said that having Thanksgiving in it's third weekend would help compared to the original Potter which had it in it's second. I never got the logic behind that, and if you look at the grosses of the two films over their first few weeks, it is clear that the original had the advantage from its release date.



Sure hit? You know that has been said in the past about many films that failed. Again, I would consider WOM for Meet the Parents to have been better (although I would guess that O11 was more popular for the demographic around here which might explain the predictions). As far as the cast goes, all of them have had films bomb in recent years. None of them will carry a film on their own.

Well, I doubt that anyone of Meet the Fockers' cast is more able of carrying a film on their own then the ones in O12's cast. Stiller is a hit/miss, De Niro and Hoffman are no huge box-office magnets either obviously. Much rather would I say is Julia Roberts a draw as well as Brad Pitt.

Ocean's Twelve has too big of a cast to fail, seriously. Analyze That mostly relied on De Niro, an actor who can't always bring in masses while Whole Ten Yards relied on Willis who hasn't had a hit recently. Julia Roberts has been receiving publicity with Closer recently, Brad Pitt had this year's Troy and Matt Damon is fresh off Bourne's success while Catherine Zeta-Jones was in The Terminal. Sure, that wasn't a huge hit, but it reminded the audiences of her for sure. The presence of George Clooney can never hurt either. This is a lighthearted fun flick which most likely won't get terrible reviews. It is a much safer hit that Meet the Fockers since comedies are usually hit or miss and rarely fall in the middle. Meet the Fockers has agood cast, but mostly it relies on the predecessor's success, while Ocean's Twelve can just rely on its amazing cast.