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| 2004 100m movies: 22 down https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=231 |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat Oct 16, 2004 7:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2004 100m movies: 22 down |
Which coming films do you think can make it, and what chance do you give them? ST recently reached the mark as of yesterday making it 15 films so far this year. I see about 26 by the end. This is an update of a list I had elsewhere: 1. Passion 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Hesling 4. Troy 5. Shrek 2 6. Day After Tommorow 7. Harry Potter 3 8. Dodgeball 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Farenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. Bourne Supremacy 13. Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks: Incredibles Meet the Fockers Best Picture Winner 90%+ Chance: Oceans Twelve Lemony Snicket 75%-89.9% Chance: 2nd strongest best picture nominee 50%-74.9%: National Treasure Aviator 3rd strongest best picture nominee 25%-49.9%: The Grudge Alexander Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason Spongebob Squarepants Christmas with the Kranks Blade: Trinity Spanglish 10%-24.9%: Ray Finding Neverland After the Sunset (Up) 1%-9.9%: Princess Diaries 2 (Down) Friday Night Lights (almost eliminated) Surviving Christmas The Polar Express The Seed of Chucky The Flight of the Pheonix Closer An Unfinished Life Phantom of the Opera Fat Albert Synergy (It's had a name change, I can't remember what it is now) Eliminated: Taxi Ladder 49 Raise Your Voice (embarassed to have even given it a 1% chance) |
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| Author: | bABA [ Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:01 pm ] |
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Life Aquatic?? I'm glad to see you have reserved expectations for Ocean's 12. Its probably the most unneccassarry sequel. |
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| Author: | Amer [ Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:04 pm ] |
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Alexander WILL make 100 Million. |
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| Author: | e1828 [ Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:42 pm ] |
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What if your best picture nominee winner or 2nd or 3rd best picture nominee is already one of the movies that made $100 million? |
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| Author: | rusty [ Sun Oct 17, 2004 2:37 pm ] |
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Meet the fockers is one of the few of the locks that I really want to see. That and Alexander. |
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| Author: | trixster [ Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:28 pm ] |
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Damnit, this one got deleted over at BOM, so I lost my list! :x 1. The Passion of the Christ 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Helsing 4. Shrek 2 5. Troy 6. The Day After Tomorrow 7. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 8. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Fahrenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. The Bourne Supremacy 13. The Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks 16. The Incredibles 17. Ocean's Twelve 18. Meet the Fockers Great Chance 19. The Polar Express 20. Alexander 21. Christmas with the Kranks 22. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events Good Chance 23. The Grudge 24. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie 25. Blade: Trinity So-So Chance 26. Ray 27. Saw 28. After the Sunset 29. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason 30. National Treasure 31. Closer 32. The Aviator 33. The Flight of the Phoenix Slim Chance 34. Surviving Christmas 35. Spanglish 36. The Life Aquatic 37. Fat Albert 38. The Phantom of the Opera So Shark Tale makes it, woo-hoo. Next is The Incredibles. :wink: |
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| Author: | sako [ Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:41 pm ] |
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Amer wrote: Alexander WILL make 100 Million. I'm starting to doubt it will, but it has a chance I see it at 85m right now. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:20 pm ] |
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e1828 wrote: What if your best picture nominee winner or 2nd or 3rd best picture nominee is already one of the movies that made $100 million? This assumes they are other films. I don't know what the chances are for the various films to get best picture noms, so, I seperated the two. For each film I list the chance I think they have without a best picture nom. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Oct 23, 2004 1:13 pm ] |
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Good call for people putting The Grudge with better than so-so chance of making 100M before seeing Friday's number. With Halloween coming up, it's almost a lock to get to 100M. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat Oct 23, 2004 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go |
1. Passion 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Hesling 4. Troy 5. Shrek 2 6. Day After Tommorow 7. Harry Potter 3 8. Dodgeball 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Farenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. Bourne Supremacy 13. Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks 16. The Incredibles 17. Ocean's Twelve 18. Meet The Fockers Great Chance 19. The Grudge 20. The Polar Express 21. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie 23. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events Good Chance 24. Christmas with the Kranks 25. Blade: Trinity 26. The Aviator So-So Chance 27. After The Sunset 28. The Flight of the Phoenix 29. Fat Albert 30. Ray 31. Saw 32. Closer Slim Chance 33. National Treasure 34. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason 35. Spanglish 36. The Phantom of the Opera |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Oct 23, 2004 2:03 pm ] |
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Locks: The Incredibles Ocean's Twelve Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events Near locks: Spongebob Meet the Fockers The Polar Express Pretty possible: The Aviator Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera Alexander Further possibilities: Blade: Trinity The Grudge Closer |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Sat Oct 23, 2004 2:42 pm ] |
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Based on that opening number, I have a feeling that the Grudge might hit 100 million, with halloween around the corner. It certainly performed like a blockbuster at our theater. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go |
1. Passion 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Hesling 4. Troy 5. Shrek 2 6. Day After Tommorow 7. Harry Potter 3 8. Dodgeball 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Farenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. Bourne Supremacy 13. Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks: Incredibles Meet the Fockers Best Picture Winner 90%+ Chance: The Grudge (UP) Oceans Twelve Lemony Snicket 75%-89.9% Chance: National Treasure (UP) - Because of reports of a 160m marketing campaign. Disney's largest for a live action film; more then Armageddon's 100m. 2nd strongest best picture nominee 50%-74.9%: Aviator 3rd strongest best picture nominee 25%-49.9%: Ray (UP) Alexander Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason Spongebob Squarepants Christmas with the Kranks Blade: Trinity Spanglish 10%-24.9%: Finding Neverland After the Sunset 1%-9.9%: Princess Diaries 2 The Polar Express The Seed of Chucky The Flight of the Pheonix Closer An Unfinished Life Phantom of the Opera Fat Albert In Good Company Eliminated: Friday Night Lights Surviving Christmas (Why did I even give this one a 1% chance?) |
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| Author: | Plot [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:47 pm ] |
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I think Polar Express has at least a 50% chance. BTW, Synergy is now called "In Good Company" |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:09 pm ] |
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Depending on Phantom of the Opera's release method, it might have a good chance at $100 million. Other then those listed, I don't know of many other good candidates for that number. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Tue Oct 26, 2004 2:27 am ] |
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Plot wrote: I think Polar Express has at least a 50% chance. BTW, Synergy is now called "In Good Company" Thanks. :wink: As for TPE, I very much expect it to bomb. |
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| Author: | Kris K [ Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:27 am ] |
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I would have POLAR EXPRESS as a lock for $100M. But it's your thread. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:33 am ] |
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mansonmyers wrote: I would have POLAR EXPRESS as a lock for $100M. But it's your thread. I'm just the one to start it because no one else had. Make your own list. :wink: Don't you remember these threads at BOM? Everyone would make their own. :wink: |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 8:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go |
1. Passion 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Hesling 4. Troy 5. Shrek 2 6. Day After Tommorow 7. Harry Potter 3 8. Dodgeball 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Farenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. Bourne Supremacy 13. Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks: Incredibles Meet the Fockers Best Picture Winner 90%+ Chance: The Grudge (almost a lock) Oceans Twelve Lemony Snicket 75%-89.9% Chance: National Treasure 2nd strongest best picture nominee 50%-74.9%: Ray (UP) Spongebob Squarepants (UP) Aviator 3rd strongest best picture nominee 25%-49.9%: Alexander Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason Christmas with the Kranks Blade: Trinity Spanglish 10%-24.9%: Finding Neverland After the Sunset 1%-9.9%: Princess Diaries 2 The Polar Express The Seed of Chucky The Flight of the Pheonix Closer An Unfinished Life Phantom of the Opera Fat Albert In Good Company |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Grudge is a LOCK for $100 Million imo |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Algren wrote: Grudge is a LOCK for $100 Million imo If it's above 3.5m Friday, then I'll agree. :wink: |
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| Author: | Kris K [ Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
29 movies passed $100M last year, 2004 Will not top it. 1. Passion 2. 50 First Dates 3. Van Hesling 4. Troy 5. Shrek 2 6. Day After Tommorow 7. Harry Potter 3 8. Dodgeball 9. Spider-Man 2 10. Farenheit 9/11 11. I, Robot 12. Bourne Supremacy 13. Village 14. Collateral 15. Shark Tale Locks: Incredibles Meet the Fockers The Grudge Oceans Twelve Lemony Snicket National Treasure Spongebob Squarepants Aviator Alexander Christmas with the Kranks Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason The Polar Express Blade: Trinity These movies better get their acts together! We need 15 more!! So this lot, plus 1 more to exact last year. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:23 pm ] |
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mansonmyers wrote: Locks: National Treasure Spongebob Squarepants Aviator Christmas with the Kranks Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason Blade: Trinity These are definately not locks!!!!!!!!! Especially Blade: Trinity and National Treasure, what are you smoking? |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
2004 won't have as many $100+ million movies as 2005 did. We are still 14 behind and there is not much time left. Ocean's Twelve is a DEFINITE lock. 100%. Even more than Meet the Fockers. Also, even if The Grudge falls under $9 million this weekend, it is still a lock for $100 million. It will have $85 million by the end of the weekend, for sure. Even if it falls 59+% from the on, it will still crawl past $100 million. And I really wouldn't give The Seed of Chucky even a 1% chance, hehe. The rest looks good to me. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat Nov 06, 2004 6:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Now The Grudge is a lock. :wink: Anyway, I don't think Ocean's 12 is a lock, and I have more doubts now with the very poor TV spots I've seen recently. They remind me of Analyze That. I wouldn't be shocked if it bombed completely, although I'm still predicting about 120m. |
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