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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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 2004 100m movies: 22 down Which coming films do you think can make it, and what chance do you give them? ST recently reached the mark as of yesterday making it 15 films so far this year. I see about 26 by the end. This is an update of a list I had elsewhere:
1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks:
Incredibles
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner
90%+ Chance:
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket
75%-89.9% Chance:
2nd strongest best picture nominee
50%-74.9%:
National Treasure
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee
25%-49.9%:
The Grudge
Alexander
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Spongebob Squarepants
Christmas with the Kranks
Blade: Trinity
Spanglish
10%-24.9%:
Ray
Finding Neverland
After the Sunset (Up)
1%-9.9%:
Princess Diaries 2 (Down)
Friday Night Lights (almost eliminated)
Surviving Christmas
The Polar Express
The Seed of Chucky
The Flight of the Pheonix
Closer
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
Synergy (It's had a name change, I can't remember what it is now)
Eliminated:
Taxi
Ladder 49
Raise Your Voice (embarassed to have even given it a 1% chance)
Last edited by DP07 on Thu Jan 13, 2005 7:19 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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| Sat Oct 16, 2004 7:07 pm |
 
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Life Aquatic??
I'm glad to see you have reserved expectations for Ocean's 12. Its probably the most unneccassarry sequel.
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| Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:01 pm |
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Amer
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:35 pm
Posts: 1912
Location: Texas
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Alexander WILL make 100 Million.
_________________
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| Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:04 pm |
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e1828
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 12:01 pm
Posts: 577
Location: In your mind
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What if your best picture nominee winner or 2nd or 3rd best picture nominee is already one of the movies that made $100 million?
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:42 pm |
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rusty
rustiphica
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:59 pm
Posts: 8687
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Meet the fockers is one of the few of the locks that I really want to see. That and Alexander.
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 2:37 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Damnit, this one got deleted over at BOM, so I lost my list! :x
1. The Passion of the Christ
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Helsing
4. Shrek 2
5. Troy
6. The Day After Tomorrow
7. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
8. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Fahrenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. The Bourne Supremacy
13. The Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks
16. The Incredibles
17. Ocean's Twelve
18. Meet the Fockers
Great Chance
19. The Polar Express
20. Alexander
21. Christmas with the Kranks
22. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Good Chance
23. The Grudge
24. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie
25. Blade: Trinity
So-So Chance
26. Ray
27. Saw
28. After the Sunset
29. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
30. National Treasure
31. Closer
32. The Aviator
33. The Flight of the Phoenix
Slim Chance
34. Surviving Christmas
35. Spanglish
36. The Life Aquatic
37. Fat Albert
38. The Phantom of the Opera
So Shark Tale makes it, woo-hoo. Next is The Incredibles. :wink:
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:28 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm
Posts: 1684
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Amer wrote: Alexander WILL make 100 Million. I'm starting to doubt it will, but it has a chance I see it at 85m right now.
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:41 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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e1828 wrote: What if your best picture nominee winner or 2nd or 3rd best picture nominee is already one of the movies that made $100 million? This assumes they are other films. I don't know what the chances are for the various films to get best picture noms, so, I seperated the two. For each film I list the chance I think they have without a best picture nom.
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| Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:20 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Good call for people putting The Grudge with better than so-so chance of making 100M before seeing Friday's number. With Halloween coming up, it's almost a lock to get to 100M.
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| Sat Oct 23, 2004 1:13 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go 1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks
16. The Incredibles
17. Ocean's Twelve
18. Meet The Fockers
Great Chance
19. The Grudge
20. The Polar Express
21. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
23. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Good Chance
24. Christmas with the Kranks
25. Blade: Trinity
26. The Aviator
So-So Chance
27. After The Sunset
28. The Flight of the Phoenix
29. Fat Albert
30. Ray
31. Saw
32. Closer
Slim Chance
33. National Treasure
34. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
35. Spanglish
36. The Phantom of the Opera
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| Sat Oct 23, 2004 1:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Locks:
The Incredibles
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Near locks:
Spongebob
Meet the Fockers
The Polar Express
Pretty possible:
The Aviator
Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera
Alexander
Further possibilities:
Blade: Trinity
The Grudge
Closer
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Oct 23, 2004 2:03 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
Posts: 11838
Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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Based on that opening number, I have a feeling that the Grudge might hit 100 million, with halloween around the corner. It certainly performed like a blockbuster at our theater.
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| Sat Oct 23, 2004 2:42 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go 1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks:
Incredibles
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner
90%+ Chance:
The Grudge (UP)
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket
75%-89.9% Chance:
National Treasure (UP) - Because of reports of a 160m marketing campaign. Disney's largest for a live action film; more then Armageddon's 100m.
2nd strongest best picture nominee
50%-74.9%:
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee
25%-49.9%:
Ray (UP)
Alexander
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Spongebob Squarepants
Christmas with the Kranks
Blade: Trinity
Spanglish
10%-24.9%:
Finding Neverland
After the Sunset
1%-9.9%:
Princess Diaries 2
The Polar Express
The Seed of Chucky
The Flight of the Pheonix
Closer
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
In Good Company
Eliminated:
Friday Night Lights
Surviving Christmas (Why did I even give this one a 1% chance?)
Last edited by DP07 on Tue Oct 26, 2004 2:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:14 pm |
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Plot
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:40 pm
Posts: 2987
Location: Free Country, USA
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I think Polar Express has at least a 50% chance.
BTW, Synergy is now called "In Good Company"
_________________
"How you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on? Huh? Gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? Gotta, gotta nice litte story you're working on there? Your big novel you've been working on for 3 years? Got a, got a compelling protaganist? Yeah? Gotta obstacle for him to overcome? Working on, working on that for quite some time?"
Battle of the 2005 movies - Vote Now!
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:47 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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Depending on Phantom of the Opera's release method, it might have a good chance at $100 million.
Other then those listed, I don't know of many other good candidates for that number.
_________________
See above.
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 10:09 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Plot wrote: I think Polar Express has at least a 50% chance.
BTW, Synergy is now called "In Good Company" Thanks. :wink:
As for TPE, I very much expect it to bomb.
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 2:27 am |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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I would have POLAR EXPRESS as a lock for $100M. But it's your thread.
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:27 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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mansonmyers wrote: I would have POLAR EXPRESS as a lock for $100M. But it's your thread. I'm just the one to start it because no one else had. Make your own list. :wink: Don't you remember these threads at BOM? Everyone would make their own. :wink:
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| Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:33 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Re: 2004 100m movies: 15 down, 15 to go 1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks:
Incredibles
Meet the Fockers
Best Picture Winner
90%+ Chance:
The Grudge (almost a lock)
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket
75%-89.9% Chance:
National Treasure
2nd strongest best picture nominee
50%-74.9%:
Ray (UP)
Spongebob Squarepants (UP)
Aviator
3rd strongest best picture nominee
25%-49.9%:
Alexander
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Christmas with the Kranks
Blade: Trinity
Spanglish
10%-24.9%:
Finding Neverland
After the Sunset
1%-9.9%:
Princess Diaries 2
The Polar Express
The Seed of Chucky
The Flight of the Pheonix
Closer
An Unfinished Life
Phantom of the Opera
Fat Albert
In Good Company
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| Mon Nov 01, 2004 8:45 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68233
Location: Seattle, WA
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Grudge is a LOCK for $100 Million imo
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| Tue Nov 02, 2004 10:20 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Algren wrote: Grudge is a LOCK for $100 Million imo If it's above 3.5m Friday, then I'll agree. :wink:
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| Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:47 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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29 movies passed $100M last year, 2004 Will not top it.
1. Passion
2. 50 First Dates
3. Van Hesling
4. Troy
5. Shrek 2
6. Day After Tommorow
7. Harry Potter 3
8. Dodgeball
9. Spider-Man 2
10. Farenheit 9/11
11. I, Robot
12. Bourne Supremacy
13. Village
14. Collateral
15. Shark Tale
Locks:
Incredibles
Meet the Fockers
The Grudge
Oceans Twelve
Lemony Snicket
National Treasure
Spongebob Squarepants
Aviator
Alexander
Christmas with the Kranks
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
The Polar Express
Blade: Trinity
These movies better get their acts together! We need 15 more!! So this lot, plus 1 more to exact last year.
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| Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:03 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68233
Location: Seattle, WA
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mansonmyers wrote: Locks:
National Treasure
Spongebob Squarepants
Aviator
Christmas with the Kranks
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Blade: Trinity
These are definately not locks!!!!!!!!! Especially Blade: Trinity and National Treasure, what are you smoking? _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
FREE TIBET
LIBERATE HONG KONG
BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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| Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:23 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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2004 won't have as many $100+ million movies as 2005 did. We are still 14 behind and there is not much time left.
Ocean's Twelve is a DEFINITE lock. 100%. Even more than Meet the Fockers.
Also, even if The Grudge falls under $9 million this weekend, it is still a lock for $100 million. It will have $85 million by the end of the weekend, for sure. Even if it falls 59+% from the on, it will still crawl past $100 million. And I really wouldn't give The Seed of Chucky even a 1% chance, hehe.
The rest looks good to me.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:27 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Now The Grudge is a lock. :wink:
Anyway, I don't think Ocean's 12 is a lock, and I have more doubts now with the very poor TV spots I've seen recently. They remind me of Analyze That. I wouldn't be shocked if it bombed completely, although I'm still predicting about 120m.
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| Sat Nov 06, 2004 6:33 pm |
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