Bye-bye Derby. I'm going to get like 20% on this one
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| Friday Numbers https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1632 |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Friday Numbers |
1 NATIONAL TREASURE 3,017 $11,000,000 -- / $3,646 $11,000,000 2 THE SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS MOVIE 3,212 $9,400,000 -- / $2,927 $9,400,000 3 THE INCREDIBLES 3,683 $6,550,000 254% / $1,778 $157,582,000 4 THE POLAR EXPRESS 3,650 $3,690,000 171.7% / $1,011 $39,485,000 5 BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON 2,450 $3,340,000 392.3% / $1,363 $14,807,000 6 AFTER THE SUNSET 2,819 $1,605,000 144.7% / $569 $15,622,000 7 RAY 2,027 $1,245,000 139.6% / $614 $55,872,000 8 THE GRUDGE 2,112 $1,150,000 261.6% / $545 $101,761,000 9 SAW 1,679 $940,000 132.1% / $560 $48,413,000 10 SEED OF CHUCKY 2,062 $885,000 201% / $429 $11,103,000 11 SHALL WE DANCE 1,535 $730,000 121.9% / $476 $50,687,000 12 SIDEWAYS 279 $470,000 304.4% / $1,685 $4,680,000 13 FINDING NEVERLAND 57 $250,000 -- / $4,386 $563,000 14 ALFIE 1,286 $249,000 18% / $194 $12,232,143 - KINSEY 36 $155,000 721.8% / $4,306 $404,000 |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:56 pm ] |
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Bye-bye Derby. I'm going to get like 20% on this one
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:57 pm ] |
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yuck, terrible for everything except National Treasure and Spongebob, which are still really disapointing. I was expecting $18M for Spongebob and $15M for NT, yahoo reviews toy with our minds again. Spongebob should still take the weekend with about $33M, while NT get's $31M. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:58 pm ] |
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Pretty good for openers. Though I wish Incredibles did better.  It's drop is going to be in the 45% range.
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| Author: | newfoundglorysp [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 2:59 pm ] |
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those numbers are really disappointing i was expecting MASSIVE numbers for national treasure and spongebob, and for bridget jones to be a little more of an increase seeing the dramatic number of theaters, but i guess the word of mouth was poor on that one. eek. my derby is dead. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:00 pm ] |
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I have to say Bridget Jones did terrible with the expansion. |
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| Author: | MGKC [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers |
xiayun wrote: 2 THE SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS MOVIE 3,212 $9,400,000 -- / $2,927 $9,400,000 No....noo.....NO!!!!! AAGTADGADHADHBFDSAJKNGVJNFBAJNFBANJFBAJNFBAJNBAJNBAJ!!! You have let me down Spongebob! :evil: |
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| Author: | Steve [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:11 pm ] |
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Odd I say, very odd! What an odd weekend! Doesn't it all seem a bit.....odd??? :!: Have an odd day. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:12 pm ] |
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Projections: 1 THE SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS MOVIE $32.5 2 NATIONAL TREASURE $32.0 3 THE INCREDIBLES $24.0 4 THE POLAR EXPRESS $13.8 5 BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON $11.0 6 AFTER THE SUNSET $5.5 7 RAY $4.4 8 THE GRUDGE $3.5 9 SEED OF CHUCKY $3.1 10 SAW $2.9 12 SIDEWAYS $1.8 13 FINDING NEVERLAND $0.85 |
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| Author: | A. G. [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:16 pm ] |
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Looks pretty much as I anticipated with the exception of Bridget Jones under-performing. But that movie didn't look very good anyway, it didn't appear from the ads to be anywhere near as fun as the first one. |
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| Author: | Raffiki [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:18 pm ] |
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LOL. wow, the over-reaction to these numbers is hillarious.... First off, I haven't been following popular demand on movies this week, and I thought National Treasure would be lucky to get $20m and Spongebob would probably gross around $40m Well, let's start... National Treasure did great. I mean, who could ask for more? It looked like such a mediocre movie, they should be thrilled back at the studio. While Spongebob didn't bring in stellar numbers, it still did modestly good. It should pass National Treasure by weekend's end by about $2-3 million. I think it's safe to say that we have two more $100m movies to add on to our list this year. With both over $30m this weekend and still Thanksgiving coming up, they will both be surely past $62 million by next sunday and on their way to $100m Incredibles finally fell from its pedestal... and now looks to be inching away from $300m, probably will end up with $260-270 million if it keeps falling over 35-40%. the Polar Express didn't too horrible, though it's doing great. If it start showing some legs, it could maybe get near $100 million. If it stays in a good number of theatres through Christmas, it will defintely get above $80m. $100m is still a stretch from now, and it has to show something more to get there. Both Kinsey and Finding Neverland are still doing great, though not fantastic. It all depends on how much their PTA's rise today, but they should start looking into going full out wide (I know Neverland will in the near future). Ya, Bridget Jones did disappoint in wide release. I was expecting at least a near double in gross from last week, but I guess it's mass audience rushed out first weekend and mixed reviews and audience reactions didn't help it. I think it will be a good weekend, not great in grandeur, but pretty good. 
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:20 pm ] |
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The way I came up with the projections: Saw, The Grudge, and Ray all had consistent internal multiplier the last couple of weekend, so they are easy to come up. I add 0.1 to The Grudge since it got Kranks' sneak preview today. I used Brides of Chucky's second weekend multiplier, which is 3.6, and lowered it a bit to 3.5 for Seed of Chucky. Similarly, used Thomas Crown Affair's second weekend as a reference for After the Sunset. The kids movies are self-explanatory. The multiplier last weekend for Bridget Jones wasn't that good, so I only used about 3.3 for it this weekend. |
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| Author: | andaroo1 [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:23 pm ] |
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Flava'd‡ wrote: yahoo reviews toy with our minds again. It's because you guys rely on indicators which are not good indicators. There has never been any proof that Yahoo reviews have anything to do with box office forcasting, just like Movie-Fone's list of the top selling movies has nothing to do with predicting the order that the films will show up on the Box Office list. Spongebob is no surprise. I told you guys more than half a year ago that Spongebob's popularity was massively overestimated. I showed you charts of ratings of the current re-runs of the show and compared it to the idea that popularity on TV does not equate to popularity at the box office. Like 3 people agreed with me. Spongebob can still do $100 million. But there is absolutely nothing special about that. Hell, Pokemon almost did it. But that's all this is, another Pokemon. |
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| Author: | Squee [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:24 pm ] |
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Good numbers. Both National Treasure and Spongebob have exeeded my expectations. I applaud. |
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| Author: | Mister Ecks [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:24 pm ] |
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Dear lord. |
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| Author: | Dkmuto [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:29 pm ] |
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Who knew Spongebob would not do so fantastically despite being previously convinced by you crazy people that it would? I did!
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| Author: | Dkmuto [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:30 pm ] |
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Might I add, though, that it's still a fairly solid number. And National Treasure really surprised me, too. Maybe it's just because...I think it looks awful. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:31 pm ] |
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andaroo wrote: Flava'd‡ wrote: yahoo reviews toy with our minds again. It's because you guys rely on indicators which are not good indicators. There has never been any proof that Yahoo reviews have anything to do with box office forcasting, just like Movie-Fone's list of the top selling movies has nothing to do with predicting the order that the films will show up on the Box Office list. I always laugh when Yahoo was off for one weekend, people would start hammering it, as if the other 80% of time when it is quite accurate means nothing. Comparing Yahoo reviews with Moviefone simply doesn't understand the methods used behind it. There are no actual numbers behind moviefone; it's just based on people clicking on the links. Didn't Yahoo reviews pretty match the crowd reports? When they don't match such as the case for Resident Evil 2, we would get suspicious, but yesterday, from Scott V, Libs, DP07, and pretty everybody's report, Yahoo reviews matched what they saw quite well. There is no one method/report that can be perfectly accurate in gauging the box office numbers, but the way David has developed with Yahoo reviews is certainly near the top of the accuracy list. |
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| Author: | BacktotheFuture [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:35 pm ] |
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You guys are all jumping off the Spongebob bandwagon to quickly. It will have huge numbers tomorrow. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:37 pm ] |
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| BJ now has a dead derby :x
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| Author: | JURiNG [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:39 pm ] |
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I think I have to post here too; Let's see.. ELF 2003 3rd Friday - 5.41 (+288.8% from Thursday, -25.8% from last Friday) Saturday - 8.23 (+52.8% from Friday) Weekend - 18.72 (-28.9% from last weekend, Multiplier = 3.46x) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 2002 3rd Friday - 3.57 (+322.4% from Thursday, -40.2% from last Friday) Saturday - 7.13 (+99.8% from Friday) Weekend - 15.10 (-38.9% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.23x) MONSTERS, INC. 2001 3rd Friday - 5.66 (+265.4% from Thursday, -50.2% from last Friday) Saturday - 10.63 (+87.8% from Friday) Weekend - 22.72 (-50.1% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.01x) THE INCREDIBLES 2004 3rd Friday - 6.55 (+254% from Thursday, -53% from last Friday) --- Prediction --- Saturday - 12.12 (+85% from Friday) Weekend - 26.43 (-47.4% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.04x) Not too bad :? |
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| Author: | A. G. [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:39 pm ] |
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BacktotheFuture wrote: You guys are all jumping off the Spongebob bandwagon to quickly. It will have huge numbers tomorrow. I agree. Even though I'd rather junk like this bombed, I think it is going to do like 17m tomorrow. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:39 pm ] |
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well with an opening day like that I expect spongebob to increase 80%-90% tomorrow most nick films increase over 70% and theres been some to increases over 80% 8) |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:41 pm ] |
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JURiNG wrote: I think I have to post here too; Let's see.. ELF 2003 3rd Friday - 5.41 (+288.8% from Thursday, -25.8% from last Friday) Saturday - 8.23 (+52.8% from Friday) Weekend - 18.72 (-28.9% from last weekend, Multiplier = 3.46x) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 2002 3rd Friday - 3.57 (+322.4% from Thursday, -40.2% from last Friday) Saturday - 7.13 (+99.8% from Friday) Weekend - 15.10 (-38.9% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.23x) MONSTERS, INC. 2001 3rd Friday - 5.66 (+265.4% from Thursday, -50.2% from last Friday) Saturday - 10.63 (+87.8% from Friday) Weekend - 22.72 (-50.1% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.01x) THE INCREDIBLES 2004 3rd Friday - 6.55 (+254% from Thursday, -53% from last Friday) --- Prediction --- Saturday - 12.12 (+85% from Friday) Weekend - 26.43 (-47.4% from last weekend, Multiplier = 4.04x) Not too bad :? Im hoping for a 100% increase today 8) |
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| Author: | Squee [ Sat Nov 20, 2004 3:47 pm ] |
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BJ wrote: well with an opening day like that I expect spongebob to increase 80%-90% tomorrow most nike films increase over 70% and theres been some to increases over 80% 8) I didnt know Nike was making movies now!! |
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