OCEAN'S TWELVE





Without a doubt this is one of the biggest if not THE BIGGEST movie for the rest of the year. This hugely anticipated sequel to the 2001 hit will surely open with a bang in the beginning of December, gong up against another anticipated sequel, Blade: Trinity.

Here are the basics on this movie:

Release Date: December 10, 2004
Studio: Warner Bros. Pictures
Director: Steven Soderbergh
Starring: George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Andy Garcia, Don Cheadle, Julia Roberts, Casey Affleck, Scott Caan, Elliott Gould, Bernie Mac, Carl Reiner, Vincent Cassel, Eddie Izzard, Peter Fonda
MPAA Rating: PG-13 (for language)
Official Website: Oceans12.WarnerBros.com
Plot Summary: In this sequel to the blockbuster hit "Ocean's Eleven," rival cat burglars who are masters of their craft team up to outfox the beautiful FBI agent one of them is in love with.
Competition: Ocean's Twelve is going up against the opening weekend of Blade: Trinity as well as the 2nd weekend of Closer and the third weekends of Christmas with the Kranks and Alexander. In its second weekend Ocean's Twelve has to face The Aviator, Spanglish and Jim Carrey's blockbuster Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events.

Teaser:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/oceans_12/large.html

Trailer:

http://pdl.warnerbros.com/wbmovies/ocea ... iler_a.mov

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My thoughts:



Ocean's Twelve is a sequel to a huge hit from 2001. The original got great reviews and was very well-received. The formula of a lighthearted fun movie with many stars worked. And as the saying goes, "never change a winning team". All the stars are back for the sequel and many others have joined like Vincent Cassel and Catherine Zeta-Jones. There are also cameos by Peter Fonda and Bruce Willis to be expected. So far, we didn't see much of the marketing, but I expect a marketing blitz to come upon us very soon. The buzz is good and there is nothing really that will stand in this movie's way to become a huge hit. The original had the highest December opening ever back in 2001 and Ocean's Twelve is sure to open bigger. Ocean's Eleven held very well after the big opening and managed a multiplier of over 4.8 by the end of its run and that despite huge competition from the benemoth Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. The stars of Ocean's Twelve might not be huge draws on their own (with the possible exception of Julia Roberts), but together they are an unbeatable team. However, I expect Ocean's Twelve to be somewhat more frontloaded. The only problem it has is that the novelty of its predecessor is not there anymore, so the whole movie seems a bit of a rehash of the first. However, I don't think that audiences will be too bothered by this and prevent this movie from becoming a huge hit.

The competition will sure be big with other star-driven pictures like The Aviator, Meet the Fockers and Spanglish coming out, but the competetion also did not hurt Ocean's Twelve all that much. I believe that Blade: Trinity will somewhat hurt Ocean's Twelve's opening weekend, as the vampire action flick is also very anticipated and frontloaded, but it won'tb have any effect on Ocean's Twelve in the long run.



My predictions:

Opening weekend - $50.8 million

Total gross - $197 million

PREDICTIONS:


Opening weekend:

DP07 - $31 million
Animosity Reigns - $38 million
roidrage - $38 million
Nebs - $40 million
Archie Gates - $42 million
RogueCommander - $43.8 million
Zingaling - $45 million
Zach - $46.8 million
newfoundglorysp - $47 million
Dr. Lecter - $47.1 million
micasey300 - $49.5 million
matatonio - $52 million
jmart007 - $53.1 million
Chris - $54 million
FILMO - $55 million
Flava'd‡ - $57 million
hans - $61 million
Algren - $62 million

AVERAGE: $47.91 million


Total gross:

DP07 - $103 million
roidrage - $110 million
Nebs - $120 million
micasey300 - $130 million
Archie Gates - $150 million
RogueCommander - $153 million
Zingaling - $157 million
Dr. Lecter - $174 million
newfoundglorysp - $179 million
matatonio - $180 million
jmart007 - $187.5 million
Flava'd‡ - $190 million
FILMO - $192.5 million
Chris - $200 million
Algren - $211 million
hans - $220 million

AVERAGE: $166.06 million

55/192,5
Thats a multiplier of 3,5

42/150

Catherine Zeta Jones in it gives me pause - she's just not a good omen if you want a popular movie.

Opening of $57M, Total of $190M. Slightly frontloaded at first, but holiday season carrys it.

Opening: $55.0
Total: $192.5

This will be huge.

Oceans Eleven:

$62 Million Opening

$211 Million Total

The second weekend of December is not known as a big box office weekend. I don't think it can muster 50 million, but 40 seems possible.

47/179

Ocean's Eleven got a PTA of $12,300. Using that exact PTA for Ocean's Twelve, with the estimated 3,400 theater count, it would get about $41.8 million. That's the absolute minimum this movie will get. First of all, I think the movie will get over 3,500 theaters. Also, I think that the PTA will be closer to The Bourne Supremacy's PTA of $16,500, though I'm going to predict about a $15,000 PTA. That would give it about $52.5 million. I still think that it can reach $55.0 million, though.

However, higher theater count can mean a lower PTA.

My prediction:

Opening: $43.8 million
Total: $153 million

Bourne came out smack in the middle of summer when people are on vacarion school is out etc..

Oceans is coming out smack in the middle of "hurry up and shop before Xmas" season, school is in and parents are working overtime to get more time off for hoilidays...the 1st and 2nd weekends of Dec have never been super huge, while this movie will be big it wont be huge (opening weekend)

45 at the most...Im going with 38 ish or about the same as the first, as from the reaction ive heard based on previews etc this one "doesnt look as good"

That's true, but it didn't stop Lord of the Rings from pulling HUGE numbers before Christmas. :wink:

Besides, with no Lord of the Rings this year, this is the "big" movie in December.

Bourne was also a good movie. I've been hearing alot of horrible stuff about this movie.

Good point. Theres a lot of competition though. And given the release date, $40 million isn't bad at all.

i totally agree with LoTR however that was a 3rd weekend movie, and as it has been proven even before Lords that weekend is when numbers start going up because school is finally out and parents start taking vacation. Lemony has the "magic" weekend this year...so we shall see...

It would be nice to see this trend end tho as from working in a theatre standpoint I always hate the first 2 weekends in Dec cause you get such a high from thanksgiving and then it goes away for 2 weeks before coming back..its a scheduling nightmare and i hate cutting staff before xmas as I know everyone needs the money

Yeah, just looked at previous years, and the biggest opening in the past few years for the 2nd weekend of December was Vanilla Sky with about $25 million. My thought is, though, that Ocean's Twelve will change the trend of that weekend. Yes, The Bourne Supremacy opened in the summer. And, the competition is tough this holiday season, but I think that before adults get into all the oscar-type movies, they'll all watch this. Plus, it has appeal to the teenage audience as well, who don't have much to watch this December except Ocean's Twelve and Blade: Trinity. We shall soon see, though. :wink:

I believe I did this at BOM...

Bourne Identity Opening and Total:
$27.1 / $121.7

Bourne Supremacy Opening and Total:
$52.5 / $176.1

Ocean's Eleven Opening and Total:
$38.1 / $183.4

Using Ratios...
Ocean's Twelve Opening and Total:
$73.8 / $265.4

Interesting.... Bourne Identity was a sleeper, however, and Ocean's 11 was a blockbuster.

My predictions:

Opening: $57.5
Total: $212.0

heh so funny as I was browsing the forum i got an email from our district manager telling us no excpetions to keep payroll as low as possible for the next 2 weeks just kinda funny as we were just talking about this.

And yea I agree with not much out for adults to watch etc... Ill say anywhere between 35 and 45 which would be huge for the 2nd weekend of Dec.

I still just am not feeling the hype for this...

but as they say..game on 8)

Round opening of $40 million, with again round total of $144,721,425..

Opening: $53.1
Total: $187.5

I think it will only get 25-30 million.. I've seen tons of trailers,but i dont even know what the movie is about.. i just know who's in it. I'm not going to see it and i know a ocuple of ppl who said the same thing.

Well, you might be the only copule of moviegoers that don't see it.. Like the 1st movie, Ocean's 11, this is the perfect holiday movie for adults to open up around this time of the year and granted, yeah, I don't think it'll be as good as the 1st one, but nevertheless, it was very impressive for the Director to achieve what he did in bringing back the same cast for this..

I say 30-35 Million opening weekend and around 100-120 Million domestic..

I thought I'd bump it since it's out in less than a week.

I thought I had already made my prediction in here.

If WOM is as I expect it to be: 31m/94m

If it turns out to be good: 31m/105m