It’s an interesting one for sure. On one hand, Illumination Entertainment’s box office track record is insane, both with original properties as well as their Dr. Seuss movies. Then there’s the spectacle of the first ever animated movie featuring some of the most iconic and long standing IP / characters known worldwide. On the other hand, do people care or want to see what a Mario movie might have to offer? Right now I don’t really feel what the hook is but marketing muscle is starting to flex.

Could it do extremely well based on walk-ups and capturing the zeitgeist as a must-see event? (thinking like how Shrek 2 exploded) Or will it be relegated to a ‘pretty good’ performance / a ‘really good’ one for a movie based on a videogame? I still have no idea, but could see OW anywhere from $60m to $130m at this point.

All of your points are very spot on. I would personally say anything under Sonic would be disappointing to me because the Mario brand feels so much bigger than Sonic. Even if I have high hopes for it to win the year I'd still consider a $250M gross a win for it. Anywhere close to Lightyear would be a disaster but Nintendo had so much blowback from the live action film that hit their IP that I feel they were exceptionally careful this time around to have an all around quality film because they knew the risks of not having one could be disasterous. Though video game movies are notoriously finnicky so it's a big roll of the dice.

The theme park opening Mario World though is a big, big plus for cross platform promotion and the movie can play essentially as an ad for the theme park and vice versa.

Eh I don't think there would be any rush for tickets to this. It's even having a 5-day weekend so gross will be spread out.

Randomly on topic, the studio dropped the final trailer in the last hour. Looks like a fun adventure pic and watching Mario Kart scenes in IMAX would really be something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omio6iG9bX0

I don't see a rush factor, but it's a kids movie first and foremost so that's not expected anyway.

Honestly I can't see this opening beyond the $60-$75M range. Could be even lower than that.

I think people are underestimating how weird it is to have a character like Mario who is iconic for only saying "mama mia" suddenly have Chris Pratt voicing him. That approach didn't really go over well with Pokemon either (Ryan Reynolds voicing Pikachu)

It will have a big 5-day weekend and then strong legs through May. Though “Big” could mean anywhere $70-170m or so. I’m thinking between $70-$90m 5-day right now.

Actually I have no idea.

In the end its OD presales were not bad at all considering trailers announcing came late. Its definitely looking bigger than Sonic 2 at this point.

Yeah this is one of my most anticipated for 2023, but I don't feel compelled to buy middle tickets right away like with Marvel movies. I wanna see it first day, but won't be upset if not.

People only buy tickets far out if they’re worried about sell outs.

ALL THE MONEY!!!

Checked opening night showtimes in my area and was surprised by how many already had 5-15 tickets sold. There's a Dolby screen where almost all of the up-charged seats are all sold already! Being 5-day throws off predicting how it'll do, but I definitely think it should be well above $100M by Easter Sunday.

After another check presales are really uber strong. Early indications are around ~ 125m for 5 day. That plus 4 weeks of open runway means its going to go for Biggest illumination animated gross domestic.

You don't need presales to know this will be super huge.

155m | 445m

Good old Georgia!

My dude Toad deserved a few states

Not Peach getting snubbed like that.

Bowser only winning the district of columbia seems fitting.

All the politicians identify with him lol

I can't think of a more fitting symbol than that Bowser face

Revised my prediction, way up, to $350-$400M DOM. Buzz is high and it looks to be a 4 quadrant blockbuster. Also, $350/$400M isn't what it used to be.

Some of the theaters near me have scheduled 12:01am showtimes for Tuesday night since Universal isn't doing regular previews...and they're actually selling tickets? There's a Dolby screening that already has 19 tickets sold. For a midnight screening on a Tuesday night for an animated movie. Bananas.

This feels like it has real biggest of the year potential, especially if Guardians 3 gets dragged down by Marvel Fatigue.