With movie theaters being in phase 4 of NY's plan (and apparantly they need NY to open Tenet) it's looking pretty bad. Sigh.

Theatres are not going back to normal until Summer 2021, period.

Hollywood Reporter: Before COVID-19, it wasn't unusual for 50 percent of seats at U.S. theaters to remain empty on the weekends without dampening business overall. Hollywood studios and theater owners would normally never discuss what's a taboo topic: the millions of seats across the U.S. that remain empty even when the box office is booming.
Deadline: after such reports (that exhibitors can make money off reduced auditorium capacities of 30%-50%), one exhibition vet snarked to me via text: “You really think theaters can survive on limited capacity? Here’s an oldie but a goodie: ‘Friday and Saturday night only come around once a week’. Proforma budget projections should be based on selling out at prime shows on Friday and Saturday, otherwise you wouldn’t build it! So to think that these theaters can be profitable at even 50% is ridiculous. Not to mention the loss of $10-$15 on concession per person. Seems we have a different perception of this business.”

So if both are true, then even at normal situation, theatre are operating at loss or near-loss level? Anyway cinemas have to choose between two bad choices: Open with limited capacities (risk operating at loss) or not open at all until pandemic is over (100% loss because owners still have to pay other fees).

Disagree. I live in a tri-state area with each district featuring different reopening plans. I'm seeing momentum here and elsewhere, based on what I'm hearing, toward businesses opening up (even in states still under Phase 0). The unspoken policy in those most restrictive states seems to be "you can open your establishment so long as everyone wears masks"

There's definitely pressure building and the dominoes will fall in NJ/NY and elsewhere, for theaters and related establishments well before July

And NATO is lobbying NYC to put cinema in phase 3. I'm pretty sure it'll success because, in theory, cinema has the same risk as indoor dine-in restaurant, even safer if operating without concessions.

AFP reported that they're already working on Tenet red carpet premiere

Tenet will make its July release date.

Straight to streaming, sure.

Definitely won't be releasing straight to digital media, it would just move its date of theaters are not open

So with this worldwide pandemic being such an unprecedented situation, normal box office models and trends are thrown out the window. It's now extremely hard to predict how this film will perform.

There is no direct comparison to any past situation in box office history like this. There is only a vaguely similar situation, and that is Gone with the Wind, which was released at the beginning of World War 2 and near the tail end of the Great Depression. Now yes I know it was a different time, different market. However, the reason I make this comparison is that during Gone with the Wind's theatrical run, there wasn't a huge amount of people scared to go to the movies during the war. In spite of World War 2 and the lingering effects of the Great Depression, Gone with the Wind for its time of release did massive numbers both domestically and overseas for its box office run.

Now Tenet could totally disappoint, be average, or be a massive hit at the box office...we just don't know. I'm staying to my bold prediction but revising down my opening weekend allowing for longer legs. I'm boldly sticking with 50M OW/350M DOM/700M OS/1.05B WW total.



Inception was certainly a 4 quadrant film, even if it leaned more towards two quadrants specifically. You can't do the worldwide box office and home video numbers that Inception did as an original film without appealing to all 4 quadrants.

As for Tenet, generally speaking it is Nolan's most ambitious film to date. It will have some innovative and massive action set pieces and effects, an intriguing story, and a variety of world locations. Further, the main lead will help bring in a diverse multicultural audience.

Now of course we are in a worldwide pandemic. So the more obvious answer to your question is: coronavirus. This coronavirus pandemic, due to pent up demand of people and families being tired of home entertainment, will guarantee that Tenet is a 4 quadrant film.

Inception had good WoM and there are movies that can appeal to wider audience AFTER their release. It was certainly the case with Inception. It did not appeal to all 4 quadrants upfront look at its opening everywhere. OS audience are generally more open to visually appealing blockbusters.

What ever you said about Tenet is rumors/gossip/media speculation that general audience or the 4-quadrants in this case would not seek for. Also for this sentence "It will have some innovative and massive action set pieces and effects, an intriguing story, and a variety of world locations" you can LITERALLY put any action blockbuster to that sentence and how was Inception not the same?

"coronavirus" is NOT the answer to my question. Tenet DOES NOT "look" like a 4 quadrant hit. If external factors and world war makes it one then its a completely different situation. Another proof is that even among Nolan fans it was gossiped as the sequel to Inception after the trailers. How many movies has John David Washington made hits by pulling in "diverse multicultural" audience? This movie is being sold on Nolan's name which is why it has to be great otherwise I don't think it will became a 4-quadrant hit even among coronavirus situation. If its not good people might save their time and wait for other better options coming just a week after (specially for families).

In your eyes clearly then true 4 quadrant films are some sort of rare unicorns and many of Nolan's films according to you aren't 4 quadrant films. Also you're implying that only the OW matters in terms of whether a film is 4 quadrant or not? Laughable. An original film that made almost 300M DOM and almost 850M WW in 2010 (before home video sales) isn't a 4 quadrant film? Yeah whatever, you do you then. Do you honestly think WB would give Nolan a 200M+ budget for an original film (Tenet) if it wasn't 4 quadrant? I guess you must be smarter than all of WB put together. Why haven't you applied for the WB CEO job yet?

I have no interest in further debates with you. As always, the box office results will ultimately show what sort of film Tenet is...unless of course some people live in bubbles or alternate realities and refuse to look at objective facts. Then it is what it is with such people.

Not all big openers are true 4-quadrant (Twilight being the prime example for it). I did not disrespect your opinion nor dismiss your points so I am not sure where those arrogant snide comments are coming from.

Opening is not considered but total gross of movie is only considered to call a movie 4-quadrant? By that logic Twilight movies are pretty much 4-quadrant mega blockbusters because most/all of them made more than Inception in admissions. WB is giving money to Nolan because he makes money for them. Money != 4-quadrant movie.

You are mistaking my saying Tenet not being a 4-quadrant movie to it making money. For you the objective fact is total (which BTW I think will be big enough for the kind of movie it is) but for me there are multiple factors, just because a movie made HUGE money or opened big its called a 4-quadrant movie. For movies like Inception or original movies from famous/relevant directors, there is general interest but people would not rush out unless there are topics that would naturally attract every quadrant. Inception is still a niche concept but it was great in execution and script which is why more people discovered it during theaters and if you remember the IMAX sales for the movie.

Also calm down dude. What did you expect? People have different opinions so ofcourse there is a discussion. I guess you couldn't come up with proper debate point so you have to attack on my personality. This is not the first time I am hearing this from you so I guess its expected, the unfortunate part is that I DID NOT START the conversation. You meddled in because you are hurt someone said something that you didn't like to hear about a movie you like.

Rumor is that WB will release another trailer today, probably very soon!

All the promotional material have REMOVED the July date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... =emb_title

Looks good though small in scale ? Where is the action? Where did they spend $200m?

Barring a very-possible blow up from a potentially perfectly timed release, I think this will absolutely be Nolan's first real box office misfire.

Commercially, that was a pretty shitty trailer. There is no action, no tension, and a normal person will be more confused than interested. The music sucked, and the last bit at the end wasn't funny. Good looking guys walking around in suits doesn't scream "take my money!". There is nothing resembling the scale of INCEPTION or TDKR or INTERSTELLAR nor the magnetism of TDK. Not sure who edited or approved that but they need another one out ASAP.

In normal condition, this will do closer to TARANTINO numbers than SPIELBERG numbers if they keep up this vibe.

Excel. Please stop acting like you know anything about movie marketing.

This consistent with the sentiment from box office theory...

Wow, all 19 regular posters?

First trailer I really liked. They totally should have milked it and called it Inversion. I thought it was pretty much wall to wall action too. The end exchanged reminded me of the end of the Inception trailer between Hardy and JGL talking about dreaming bigger. Maybe if it had a bigger lead Excel to make that massive leap of Tarantino's 40 OW to Nolan's 47 million opening range.

Not to be rude to them... but they're not the best predictors, unless they use their tracking. They do great tracking. But straight up analysis/prediction? Even our 5 posters do better than them.

As I'm discussing on twitter, I just don't see why WB would open this on that slot. Studios are going to need to get together to figure out a solid "opening weekend" where one studio isn't left out to dry. What if theaters are only at 50% capacity? With only one big movie coming out, not only is the studio losing millions, but the theaters will not even see a point in opening.

Wouldn't it mean that if (and that's a big if at this point) the theaters open even at 50% capacity Tenet will enjoy more screens and play time to itself. Though I do see the problem of some people not wanting to come out yet but if safe distancing measures are put in place having a single movie could work in Tenet's favor.