My final derby predictions:

1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - 150 (4-day)
2. Monster-in-Law - 14.3 (-38.1%)
3. Kicking and Screaming - 11.9 (-41.0%)
4. Crash - 4.7 (-33.1%)
5. Kingdom of Heaven - 4.3 (-55.3%)
6. Unleashed - 4.3 (60.6%)
7. House of Wax - 3.2 (-51.2%)
8. The Interpreter - 2.7 (-41.2%)
9. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - 2.2 (-56.4%)
10. Mindhunters - 0.8 (-58.1%)

My derby predictions are here http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8149

You have one hour to go, so go ahead and cheat.

Brandon's predictions: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forecast/.

His prediction sucks.

OMG!!! all this star wars crap its driving crazy!!!......

*sigh* but i kinda expected this! :wink:

BJ thinks Brandon needs to lay off the drugs and give us a real prediction

Final Predictions:
1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - 135.6(4-day) NEW
2. Monster-in-Law - 14.2 (-39%)
3. Kicking and Screaming - 11.3 (-44%)
4. Crash - 5 (-29%)
5. Kingdom of Heaven - 4.9 (-49%)
6. Unleashed - 4.7 (-57%)
7. House of Wax - 3.4 (-48%)
8. The Interpreter - 3 (-35%)
9. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - 2.3 (-55%)
10. Mindhunters - 0.9 (-54%)

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith $155m
Monster-In-Law $13.2m
Kicking & Screaming $12.5m
Crash $4.9m
Kingdom of Heaven $4.6m
Unleashed $4.6m
House of Wax $3.0m
The Interpreter $2.7m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $2.4m
Mindhunters $0.7m

Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (3-day) - $100.7 million
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (opening day) - $45.7 million
Monster-in-Law - $13.9 million
Kicking and Screaming - $12.1 million
Unleashed - $4.9 million
Kingdom of Heaven - $5 million
Crash - $4.9 million
House of Wax - $3.3 million
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $2.7 million
The Interpreter - $2.5 million
Mindhunters - $.8 million

STAR WARS: EPISODE 3 ....................141.7
Monster-in-Law ..................................13.9
Кicking&screeming ............................11
Unleeshed .........................................5.3
Crash ...............................................4.9
Kingdom of Heaven ...........................4.5
House of Wax.....................................3.2
The Interpreter ..................................2.6
The Hitchhiker....................................2.3
Mindhunters .......................................0.8

Believe me, I'm with you!

Interesting that hardly anyone is predicting under 11 million for Kicking and Screaming. It's got Star Wars major competition. I'm predicting $10.3 for it.

A 300% Friday increase, which is pretty huge, would barely put it over $10 million for the weekend. It's also going to have a nasty Thursday fall, around 10 to 20%.

The weekend's multiplier for Kicking & Screaming will be in the 3.6 range at least, since its first weekend's IM is already 3.3. Also 300% is easy to do. Daddy Day Care increased more on its second Friday when facing Matrix Reloaded (I know, that's rated R).

300% increase seems like a stretch right now with Star Wars Ep III. That comparison does nothing for me right now, as Daddy Day Care was basically the only family movie out then.

Yeah Nebs; thats basically the prediction forum where i post the articles, i should start a weekend box office thread in the other forum for folks to comment and predict but im just lazy :-)

Actually I believe 300% becomes easier since it will take the major hit today, Thursday. If you check when Star Wars Ep II came out, the Friday increases for all the movies were actually higher than normal because they all took great hit on Thursday. Friday's hit won't be as much in relative term, and Thursday-to-Friday increases are thus better.

My final derby predictions:

1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - 151m (4-day)
2. Monster-in-Law - 13.2m
3. Kicking and Screaming - 11.2m
4. Crash - 5.0m
5. Kingdom of Heaven - 4.7m
6. Unleashed - 4.7m
7. House of Wax - 3.1m
8. The Interpreter - 2.6m
9. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - 2.4m
10. Mindhunters - 0.8m

And according to my math, that's $146.4M... [-X

That's what I had already put for the derby. I know it's wrong, though, so that's why I'm sticking with the $150 million club.

So...you're telling me that you played the derby before Mon May 16, 2005 6:23 am? That's the day and time (EST) that you joined the $150M club, incase you were wondering.

Now Zingy, I wasn't born 2 days after you joined (which was yesterday :razz: ), and it kinda looks like you were trying to play both sides of the fence to me.

Mav, I don't see how my derby prediction has anything to do with my prediction in the threads here.

Yesterday, while doing my calculations, all I could get was $146 million 4-day because I ruled out a $50 million opening day. Now, a $50 million opening day looks a little more likely. $4 million short of $150 million for the derby (where you actually have to compete for the top spot) isn't exactly playing both sides.

Playing the derby and predicting for one single movie are very different, with different strategies. That's why Scott only entered 148.8 for the derby even though his heart still says 158. To be consistent in the derby, you have to play for the situation, see what everyone else is predicting, and just make sure you get better scores instead of trying to nail a movie with your own gut. Sinc the derby average is only 125, 145-150 range is separated out from the pack enough.

The above is why i dont play the derby.
Why compromise? Whats the fun in that?

Yes, and where's the skill? Any dope can look at what everybody else is prediction and come close. This "going with the consensus" thing doesn't really sound like it's much fun or anything that anybody should pat themselves on the back about.

As far as strategies...

Going with your gut and getting it right while the consensus is way high or way low, seems like it would significantly improve your chances to be #1. Does that make too much sense or something?

It's not full compromise. There isn't much difference between a 148M and 158M prediction. I'm basically predicting the movie is going to be huge. I'm just guarding against a better range of over-prediction. Like for XXX2, I felt the movie is going to bomb, so I made sure I predict lower than pretty much what everybody else was predicting and then some. The average at the time was 27M, so I predicted 20M, and I didn't need to go so low that I risked being too low. If the average had been 22M, I'd have gone with 16M. It's a strategy, and that's a lot of fun. And it's not just going with consensus. I use my own judgement, and comparing it with the consensus and making sure I have a margin of error.