on the new avatar.

He's adorable, though!

The Maze Runner earned ~¥35 million (~$290,000) yesterday (Friday). It should be targeting an opening weekend around ¥150 million ($1.2/1.3 million), which will probably only be good enough to debut in fourth place over the weekend unless Chappie bombs.

I'll actually post the Weekend Forecast later this evening.

Weekend estimates before the weekend has started?

Weekend Forecast

Do we know what DBZ weekend actual was last weekend? Based on your estimate there did it do ¥107 million?

Also based on your forecast is it still looking at a ¥3.65-3.75 billion finish or has that changed slightly now?

I am amazed at Shin-chan's growth. I mean, it's almost doing the numbers that some Conan movies were doing during the 2004-2008 period (Movie 9 : 2.15 billion) and look where that franchise is now. It probably has more room for growth too.

¥106 million. And yeah, it's likely to finish somewhere in that range.



Yeah, the films have been impressive over the past few years. It's a lot younger skewing than Detective Conan, so that'll probably limit its growth, but it does appeal it has some room to grow given the increases of the recent releases.

Although, pretty much every annual franchise (except Pokemon), has seen noticeable growth at the box office over the past few years. It seems like almost every year now they're breaking their own franchise record of some kind, whether it's on opening weekend or final gross and admissions.

DBZ's Saturday didn't look that great so I guess that ¥68 million isn't gonna happen?

Yeah, that's probably too high. Saturday was rather harsh with most films dropping 40-60% compared to last week except for Biri Gal (-13%) and Cinderella (-31%).

Let's see what happens today. So far, Sunday is looking pretty good.

Usual Locations - Weekend Admissions [43% of Market]

05/23-24
Admissions [#theaters/#showings], % change, Film (Week of Release)
73,842 [146/1,223], -23%, Cinderella (Week 5)
63,607 [137/1,466], 0, Initiation Love (NEW)
55,281 [133/1,017], -05%, Biri Gal (Week 4)
44,130 [147/1,444], 0, The Maze Runner (NEW)
30,080 [136/1,072], -37%, Kakekomi (Week 2)
28,271 [132/1,343], 0, Chappie (NEW)
23,084 [141/700], -36%, Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Week 6)
21,027 [140/909], -35%, Poison Berry in My Head (Week 3)
17,242 [136/414], -36%, Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Week 6)
14,161 [140/522], -44%, Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Week 6)
12,808 [134/360], -53%, Furious 7 (Week 7)
10,683 [22/232], 0, Initial D the Movie Legend 2 (NEW)
9,282 ]142/567], -41%, Parasyte (Part 2) (Week 5)
8,641 [104/397], -43%, Ryozu and the Seven Henchmen (Week 5)
7,040 [28/104], -29%, Whiplash (Week 6)

Alright, much better weekend than Saturday's results were indicating.

I'll post the Weekend Estimates shortly.

Mondays figures are looking surprisingly good. Most films are up considerably from last Monday. In DBZ's case it looks like it could have a better Monday than the Monday from 2 weeks back.

Is there an holiday or something?

There isn't a holiday but there's no school today, so films targeting children, students, and even those that skew female are thriving. DBZ has a fair amount of high school fans, so that's why it's seeing a nice bump.

A noticeable earthquake (5.4) shook the Kanto region an hour ago, so some evening business may be slow as a result. No damage has been reported.

Japan receives many earthquakes (several hundred a day) and has been hit with 11 measuring above 4.0 in just the past 2 weeks (28 above 4.0 this month), so they're used to this but today's big one lasted long enough to set off some alarms, so it might halt moviegoers from going out this evening.

The majority of box office receipts comes out of the Kanto region.

Yeah it didn't quite beat the Monday from two weeks ago but it was close. Is today the only day they have off school?

Any word on actuals yet?

There is school the rest of the week and up until Summer vacation, which begins on July 18th.

Weekend Ranking (actuals) and Charts will be posted shortly.

Top Grossing Films - 2015
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.15 billion ($77.6 million) / 7.19 million [E] - Big Hero 6 (Disney) #41 All-Time
¥7.72 billion ($65.6 million) / 6.93 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Toho) #62 All-Time
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.54 billion ($37.8 million) / 3.57 million [30] - Cinderella (Disney)
¥4.15 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.31 million [37] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho)
¥3.89 billion ($32.8 million) / 3.46 million [E] - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Toho)
¥3.53 billion ($29.5 million) / 2.68 million [37] - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei)
¥3.21 billion ($26.8 million) / 2.30 million [45] - Furious 7 (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.72 billion ($22.9 million) / 2.38 million [65] - Assassination Classroom (Toho)
¥2.36 billion ($19.8 million) / 1.83 million [E] - Into the Woods (Disney)
¥2.28 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.93 million [F] - Strobe Edge (Toho)
¥2.23 billion ($18.6 million) / 1.71 million [F] - American Sniper (Warner Bros.)
¥2.01 billion ($16.8 million) / 1.71 million [37] - Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Toho)
¥2.00 billion ($17.0 million) / 1.58 million [F] - Parasyte (Part 1) (Toho)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.98 billion ($16.8 million) / 1.55 million [F] - The Last: Naruto the Movie (Toho)
¥1.91 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.55 million [23] - Biri Gal (Toho)
¥1.86 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.58 million [F] - Ao Haru Ride (Toho)
¥1.54 billion ($13.3 million) / 1.10 million [E] - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Warner Bros.)
¥1.53 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.20 million [F] - Night at the Museum: The Secret of the Tomb (Fox)
¥1.37 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.07 million [30] - Parasyte (Part 2) (Toho)
¥1.30 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Vancouver Asahi (Toho)
¥1.30 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.04 million [E] - Annie (Sony)
¥1.29 billion ($10.8 million) / 1.06 million [30] - Ryozu and the Seven Henchmen (Warner Bros.)
¥1.25 billion ($10.5 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Terrace House: Closing Door (Toho)
¥1.21 billion ($10.2 million) / 0.81 million [E] - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount)
¥1.09 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.91 million [E] - The Lion Who Stands in the Wind (Toho)
¥1.00 billion ($8.5 million) / 0.79 million [E] - ST: Scientific Investigation Squad (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑

[E] = Estimate (Tracking Ends)
[F] = Final Total (Reported Total)

Top Grossing Films - 2014

So did DBZ have a worse weekend than estimated or did Furious 7 have a better weekend?

It's actuals are the same as the estimates so I'd guess the latter. Would you say ¥3.7 billion is a lock? Or is it not likely to even make that much?

Furious 7 ranked 10th in admissions and gross (and DBZ 11th in both), so it's weekend estimate was underestimated. Most films improved on estimates.

Dragon Ball Z might reach ¥3.7 billion, but ¥3.65-3.69 billion is more likely. Now that it's out of the top 10, it'll quickly lose its remaining screens/showtimes in the coming weeks.

OK thanks, I suppose I can be happy with ¥3.65 billion. It didn't make their goal unfortunately but before that was even mentioned I personally was hoping for ¥3.5 billion.

You don't know what it's weekend gross actually was in the end do you? Or will that come later?

Since it's out of the Top 10, its weekend gross may not be reported this week. If it's released, I'll post it here for you.

2015 #1 Films
Dec. 06-07 - The Last: Naruto the Movie - ¥515 million ($4.4 million) W1
Dec. 13-14 - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - ¥287 million ($2.5 million) W1
Dec. 20-21 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! - ¥1.63 billion ($14.0 million) W1 [#1 All-Time Domestic OW]
Dec. 27-28 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! - ¥597 million ($5.1 million) W2
Jan. 03-04 - Big Hero 6 - ¥665 million ($5.6 million) W1
Jan. 10-11 - Big Hero 6 - ¥546 million ($4.6 million) W2
Jan. 17-18 - Big Hero 6 - ¥426 million ($3.7 million) W3
Jan. 24-25 - Big Hero 6 - ¥349 million ($3.0 million) W4
Jan. 31-Feb. 01 - Big Hero 6 - ¥307 million ($2.6 million) W5
Feb. 07-08 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - ¥259 million ($2.2 million) W1
Feb. 14-15 - Terrace House: Closing Door - ¥251 million ($2.1 million) W1
Feb. 21-22 - American Sniper - ¥332 million ($2.8 million) W1
Feb. 28-Mar. 01 - American Sniper - ¥292 million ($2.5 million) W2
Mar. 07-08 - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes - ¥645 million ($5.4 million) W1
Mar. 14-15 - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes - ¥475 million ($3.9 million) W2
Mar. 21-22 - Assassination Classroom - ¥411 million ($3.4 million) W1
Mar. 28-29 - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes - ¥309 million ($2.6 million) W3
Apr. 04-05 - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes - ¥255 million ($2.1 million) W4
Apr. 11-12 - Solomon's Perjury (Part 2) - ¥162 million ($1.4 million) W1
Apr. 18-19 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F - ¥961 million ($8.1 million) W1
Apr. 25-26 - Cinderella - ¥556 million ($4.7 million) W1
May 02-03 - Cinderella - ¥511 million ($4.3 million) W2
May 09-10 - Cinderella - ¥331 million ($2.8 million) W3
May 16-17 - Cinderella - ¥304 million ($2.5 million) W4
May 23-24 - Cinderella - ¥246 million ($2.0 million) W5

2014 #1 Films