I think Oppy is too low for sure. Barbie could be on point for high end. I have a feeling holdovers are being over estimated(except SoF which is a different beast). I would be surprised by Indy 4 is just dropping 43%. its losing half of its showtimes today.

June was so strange in retrospect. This is what a healthy boxoffice looks like. Happy that several films will do well this weekend.

I feel a $100M OW is in play for Oppenheimer which imo may be one of the biggest jaw drops of the year.

we will never forget BARBENHEIMER weekend

Oppenheimer's success is crazier than Barbie to me, this type of thing for a drama wasn't supposed to happen anymore. Movies like Napolean and Killers of the Flower Moon have some interesting max upside.

To show how rare Oppenheimer is, here is a list of adult dramas that adjust to $400M+ opening post 1980 (removed sci-fi)

Titanic $1,270,101,626 1997
Forrest Gump $736,829,627 1994
The Passion of the Christ $559,433,976 2004
The Sixth Sense $539,516,167 1999
Ghost $482,228,924 $217,631,306 1990
Saving Private Ryan $429,179,732 1998
The Fugitive $416,002,701 1993
Dances with Wolves $409,462,441 1990
An Officer and a Gentleman $409,065,153 1982
Rain Man $405,643,229 1988
American Sniper $403,659,600 2014

The fact that this has a slim dark horse chance to get close to Saving Private Ryan's gross is astonishing!

I can see Moon slaying at the box office--Mr Cinema himself reteaming with Leo, the man who's both a respected movie star and a human meme. Like, when The Departed came out the climate for adult dramas wasn't that much better than it is now.

Napoleon though? It seems every time Ridley Scott returns to the well there's less water in the bucket.

If they somehow solve the Tupac case this weekend too, wow that would make this quite the eventful pop culture weekend.

Simply Amazing

I think modern Young Millennial/older Gen Z heavy audiences are beyond eager for some unique spices flare after coming of age during the fast-food era of filmmaking. Oppenheimer is tapping into the exact segment who flocked to JOKER in record numbers while BARBIE is somewhat akin to AUSTIN POWERS in that its a high concept, extremely unique comedy starring some MAJOR stars. 3 hour, R RATED! drama doing significantly better out of the gate then megabudgeted royalty tentpole films FLASH, INDIANA JONES, and MI7 should send a massive message to Hollywood - enough McDonalds assembly line fast shit ala the MCU - hire talented filmmakers and let them create!

I think it cannot be understated how important it is the both films ended up being such high quality final products. I think most films underperform relative to their potential because the reviews are MEH or "decent". When a film scores90%ish or above on RT, that will get most people was mild interest to go see it.

Also want to add - even though Tenet was such an odd duck, I think Nolan scored a lot of points for attempting something so original and out there with it. When he turns his attention to more mainstream fair, everyone knows it'll be a unique and high quality spin on it.

I think you are right on the money excel. This year has shown (outside of the Mario movie) that movies that have a unique and interesting artistic style sell.

Charlie is saying 47 for B and 23 for O (Both true fridays). They are supply constrained at the moment looking at late demand as well. I am still hoping they go up a bit from this. Also because of being supply constrained some of the demand went to matinee shows affecting ATP. I am confident both movies will have amazing sunday drops.

How does Oppenheimer have such a bad IM?

Thanks for the update! This has collectively become such a zeitgeist (times 2 or even 3 due to Sound) weekend feel the supply just can't keep up with the demand so lengthy runs would be something from B+O.

I read that Universal had Barbie rights in 2009, before they got acquired by Sony in 2014, before WB got them in 2018. Poor patient Mattel dealt with their third studio to get this off the ground with multiplier writers and director and star iterations before Greta/Margot. I'm sure Sony and Universal folks who passed on this are kicking themselves this weekend but maybe Universal at least can enjoy the ride with Nolan. Still, this is another new $1B+ movie franchise. If Universal held on, they could have had Mario and Barbie movies.

I mean holy shit.

Barbenheimer Indeed.

I legit thought their OD numberd would be their OW numbers, this is truly incredible. Old franchises are dead.

From RTH




 

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That was just friday minus all the previews on thursday. The main reason is shortage of good shows. Its mostly sold out and presales for tomorrow is up huge. But I wonder if it will hit a wall again. But early shows will also sellout for sure. So both movies should do great tomorrow and have a crazy hold on Sunday.

Also A cinemascore for Oppenheimer. I am sure the run will be something special.

Is it time to put zwackerm on a 5150 hold if Barbie putopenw Ds2?


Psss... it's a joke, plz don't block/ cancel me plz.

So Barbie will probably miss WB's record, don't see it grossing 100m between Saturday/Sunday. Still amazing.

Looking in my area and all the late night shows for Barbie are pretty full, nice to see. Also yes, Oppenheimer is severely underbooked in my area. Not many shows after 9, which I guess makes sense given the runtime.

Steep drop for MI. If it follows Fallout's second weekend daily pattern it will do $19.7M this weekend (-64%). Would need a 5.11X multiplier it that weekend happens to get to $200M so may be a tough.

I think ideally Mission should've got Indy's date to have more weeks with premium screens. Maybe Indy would've done better in an empty market as the summer release didn't do much for it.

Barbie gets A Cinemascore too. Epic weekend.