$25M for JLaw seems absurd. $5-10M should've been what they paid her, then the budget would've been $25-30M and this opening would look a lot better. She is not 2010s Sandra Bullock or 90s Julia Roberts.

Hell Gaga is only getting $10M for Joker 2 and she has a better track record already of hits outside of franchises. A Star is Born opening to $40M+ and House of Gucci doing $150M+ worldwide is basically solely thanks to Gaga. Another actress in those roles and those films would've bombed.

What movie has the majority of premium screens this weekend?

Do theaters just keep the most recent "blockbuster" playing on them regardless of business until the next big film opens, or do they allocate them between different films on in-between weeks?

Just depends on the contracts for each film/studio and how much/little control the theaters have.

From my theaters Flash/Spiderverse are splitting premium screens this weekend.

Studios need to figure out the streaming situation

Maybe it's to strategically cultivate goodwill for her participation in a blockbuster film (where her contract would be more financially friendly)? *shrug*

First weekend estimates:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $11,600,000 -44% 3,523 -157 $3,293 $122,948,000 3wk
The Blackening $3,025,000 -50% 1,775 n/c $1,704 $12,266,705 2wk
Past Lives $1,121,162 +51% 296 +211 $3,788 $3,563,702 4wk
Fast X $1,080,000 -49% 1,063 -487 $1,016 $144,561,000 6wk
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $360,000 -46% 616 -280 $584 $572,970,000 12wk
About My Father $136,000 -56% 186 -87 $731 $11,817,574 5wk
You Hurt My Feelings $97,065 -65% 151 -98 $643 $4,613,098 5wk

I think that's a pretty good drop for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, and a good place to be at $122 million after just 17 days. I don't know how far it can go. I think $150m is out of reach, but $140m seems to be well within its capability, no?

Here's some more:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $19,300,000 -29% 3,785 -88 $5,099 $317,051,000 4wk
No Hard Feelings $15,100,000 3,208 $4,707 $15,100,000 1wk
Asteroid City $9,000,000 +955% 1,675 +1,669 $5,373 $10,215,000 2wk

That feels like an excellent opening for Asteroid City. And that Spidey drop is insane.

The final few now:

Elemental $18,463,000 -38% 4,035 n/c $4,576 $65,514,915 2wk
The Flash $15,265,000 -72% 4,256 +22 $3,587 $87,644,000 2wk
The Little Mermaid $8,674,000 -22% 3,275 -205 $2,649 $270,241,764 5wk
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 $3,518,000 -33% 2,010 -250 $1,750 $351,122,883 8wk
The Boogeyman $2,541,000 -30% 1,640 -500 $1,549 $37,710,059 4wk

Lots of good holds. Last weekend was pretty meh across the board, so nice to see almost everything deliver this weekend to make up for some of that. I think we'll see many good holds next weekend too. Can't imagine too many moviegoers choosing Indiana Jones over most of the films in release. It feels pretty indirect competition.

Spider-Verse 2 is the first film since Guardians of the Galaxy to return to #1 in its 4th weekend. Assuming it doesn't drop, and Elemental doesn't rise to overtake it, with actuals.

Very good for Asteroid City.

And at least The Flash missed dropping 74% to set a record for biggest 2nd weekend drop for a $50m opener... (Thanks O for that data!)

I don't know if that number is good for No Hard Feelings or not. Feels sort of meh. Could have been worse, but could have gone a bit higher I think too. I was seeing some articles about the premise of the movie apparently offending some people? Is that the state of today's market for R-rated comedies? People can't differentiate between reality and fictional entertainment?

So strange seeing just $10.63M separate #1 from #7. So used to seeing big OW's dominate to see such a wide spread tally feels rare these days.

Mermaid is heading to $300M+ with that hold. Very impressive drop and I think a $315M total is great domestically.

Spider-verse needs a 5.3 multiplier or something around there to get to $400M. If it can somehow manage to get a boost or go up over the July long weekend would certainly help it but looks like it may get very close but just miss it. Regardless, for a movie whose predecessor didn't even pass $200M to now possibly be approaching $400M is insanely impressive.

Yay for Elemental not falling off a cliff like LY. By the end of the July long weekend, maybe it can already be at close to a 3X multiplier so it definitely is turning around but may not be a strong enough hold yet to get to $150M. Beating LY and The Good Dinosaur look reasonable though.

Solid drops all around, though not putting a big opener here feels like a mistake...

No Hard Feelings doing 20m+ would've been a good headline for JLaw and comedies but as is the # is not awful. Curious to see how Asteroid City does for the rest of its run.

Ok for NHF

Eh it was a decent weekend but nothing really stands out as amazing. Spiderverse's $400M status still very much up in the air. At least Elemental looks like it will top Lightyear which is a much needed symbolic victory for Pixar.

Lol at Flash as usual.

Pixar needs to rebuild its reputation that was all but destroyed during the streaming era. It doesn’t help that the internet elite has a vendetta against Disney right now, and so Pixar movies have to be really, really good to get any positive reception for viral marketing from the internet elites.

I think the 1-2-3 punch of M:I, Barbie and Oppenheimer will save the summer. I see all 3 performing at the very high end of expectations

But TGM and TWOW had both good WOM and leggy runs.

I saw somewhere that Warner Brothers could have lost less money by shelving it entirely because it wouldn't have had to deal with high prints and advertising costs. That is an amazing factoid.

At some point Warner Brothers is going to have to make some very hard choices about its tentpole strategy. There's just something about the DCEU which has kept it from gaining hold of the zeitgeist.

Yeah and they could've also taken it as a tax write off. That's why they shelved Batgirl and why it will never ever see the light of day--if they released it in any form they couldn't write it down.

I hope they give Spider Verse some premium screens once IJ5 disappoints. It’s last chance is the weekend of 7/7. Apparently it split premium shows some places this weekend but not around me. Sorry I missed that one in imax

Transformers is another movie that seems like it's doing as well as you could have hoped for and still might barely be profitable. I don't know what the logic is in making movies so expensive that you have little upside beyond doing ok and all risk.

Have the actual a dropped?

1 (3) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Sony Pictures $19,003,633 -30% 3,785 -88 $5,021 $316,754,279 4
2 (2) Elemental Walt Disney $18,444,461 -38% 4,035 n/c $4,571 $65,496,376 2
3 (1) The Flash Warner Bros. $15,142,575 -72% 4,256 +22 $3,558 $87,521,078 2
4 N No Hard Feelings Sony Pictures $15,002,770 3,208 $4,677 $15,002,770 1
5 (4) Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Paramount Pi… $11,754,621 -43% 3,523 -157 $3,337 $123,102,332 3
6 (-) Asteroid City Focus Features $9,053,551 +961% 1,675 +1,669 $5,405 $10,268,265 2
7 (5) The Little Mermaid Walt Disney $8,553,073 -23% 3,275 -205 $2,612 $270,120,837 5
8 (-) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Walt Disney $3,466,415 -34% 2,010 -250 $1,725 $351,071,298 8
9 (6) The Blackening Lionsgate $3,045,136 -49% 1,775 n/c $1,716 $12,286,841 2
10 (-) The Boogeyman 20th Century… $2,554,538 -30% 1,640 -500 $1,558 $37,723,597 4
11 (-) Past Lives A24 $1,121,162 +51% 296 +211 $3,788 $3,563,702 4
12 (-) Fast X Universal $1,086,570 -49% 1,063 -487 $1,022 $144,567,720 6
13 (-) The Super Mario Bros. Movie Universal $380,705 -42% 616 -280 $618 $572,990,745

Looks like Mermaid is primed for some spectacular holds this week. The weekend # doesn't do it justice but the Sunday daily does. It was down just 11.8% from last Sunday and down just 4.24% from the Friday tally. Aladdin had a bigger 5th weekend by gross due to better earlier holds but given the competition coming to theaters over the past few weeks promising to see the stabilization which gave TLM a better 5th weekend hold (TLM -22.6% vs -23.5% for Aladdin).

The tiny Sunday drop is more about how depressed its Fathers Day gross was by being the "girliest" release, but it is still a promising sign for the film that means $300M is still on the table, especially with Ruby Gillman looking like a massive flop for DreamWorks which means it'll have no new real competition until Barbie.