Admissions in March dropped 60-65% in Hong Kong compared to a year ago before government ordered movie theaters to close March 28 (by the way, cinemas in HK are expected to re-open May 8 as there have been no confirmed local infection cases for the last 14 days). Seeing some Americans are less concerned (or less informed) about transmission of the virus and become more eager about moviegoing after weeks of lockdown, I predict the drop will be smaller (45%) in the US.

I assume most movie theaters in the US will re-open by mid-July with shortened hours and <50% seating capacity. They will probably employ preventative measures such as mask wearing requirement and no concessions. Whether theater business can sustain depends on people not getting sick and the macro situation not worsening. It is a gamble as the US is just peaking and there is no clear plan from the federal government to control the spread of the virus. People need to use more vigilance.

Correction:

Looking at the data from HKFilmBlog, HK box office during March 1-27 decreased 70-75% from last year.

Other movies will follow suit as Tenet approaches and it looks like 2000+ theaters will be open by the Tenet release date. Expect a busy August at the theaters.

This will be Nolan’s boldest move yet. There will either be a captive, lucrative, audience - or the film will flail at the boxoffice due to half empty theaters.

I think he’s going to nail this.

Most states are planning phased reopenings for May. By July theaters will be part of the Phase 2-3s. I’m excited to see Tenet in theaters. Go Nolan!

WB is the distributor. It's their call (in coordination with the cinema chains). Nolan is the face of marketing for the film.

I just don't understand why any studio would release a film. Theaters are AT BEST going to be at half capacity, and I doubt all of them will be open.

Deadline report on worldwide cinema re-openning. Most of them are within mid-July, just in time for Tenet. Only Ireland aims at August (which I believe it'll open sooner, likely also July). China is still in doubt but I believe it doesn't want to miss Mulan, maybe July too.

I don't think China cares about Mulan to the extent that it will open its theaters early just to accommodate the film's release window.

China has single-digit new infection case for 6 straight days, I consider opening in July quite late for them.

Theaters won't open if they can't sell concessions. They need those sales to profit.

Yeah they need to sell concessions or else go under.

Even Disney's new CEO Bob Chapek also mention Tenet as a guidance for Mulan “We're going to get a pretty good idea of that, because there's a competitive movie that opens one week before our film,” Chapek said. “At that point, we’re hoping that there’s some return to a semblance of normal.” Source

That's true. But mask requirement would mean no eating or drinking during screening (can't stuff popcorn in my mouth with mask on). In HK, movie theaters serve food and drinks outside auditoria and observe social distancing like any restaurants. Maybe theaters in the US will allow food during screening and no masks will be ok.

That has happened before and even still if theaters open it won't be because of the release of Mulan.

It's likely the MPAA has worked out a deal with major cinema chains for re-opening mid-July. They have probably gotten a nod from the governments. It still depends on the situation of the epidemic.

Shanghai Disneyland sold out quickly of their 24,000 out of 80,000 capacity. And this is from a country that has no freedom-demanding protest. This so called 'pent-up demand' is something not to be underestimated.

Nolan obviously benefitted from the tragedy of Ledger creating mass hype for TDK.

Now a pandemic means Tenet will not just be a movie but the return of movie theaters.

This about to explode.

Agreed Excel.

The problem of half empty theaters for the boxoffice is mitigated somewhat by the lack of competition. Tenet and Mulan will have more showtimes to itself. At least for now. I can see more announcements in June of films
moving up their release dates to July and August.

Well Tenet opening in late July means either a film that underperforms compared what it may have done last year OR a film that absolutely explodes and makes much more than it ever would have. I think it will be closer to the later as it will have event status and will have theatres to itself even if capacities are reduced.

You best me to it Lilmac. Hopefully Temet opens first on its own. Keen to see how it plays out.

They should just put it on streaming at this point. It looks basic anyway.

Quantum Cold War - that sounds like a high school thesis paper

This now becomes one of the interesting openings in years. Good for them for sticking with it

“If ‘Tenet’ doesn’t come out or doesn’t succeed, every other company goes home,” said a marketing executive from a rival studio who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the news media. “It’s no movies until Christmas.”

source: Washington Post

I don't think Tenet is coming out (on this release date)

By the first week in June most states will be under phased reopenings and we’ll see within a week or so if it works. Wisconsin saw a rise in cases after they reopened.