Uhhh, the Oscar effect is the week AFTER the Oscars....remember??? Yoiu know like the week it went up 11% from its previous week?

It should end up with at least $90 million. Awesome for a movie of tis kind.

Oscar movies don't usually fall this hard.

Well, at least everyone gets 0% on The Passion. :razz:

Robots looks like it will do below expectations, but not "bad" or "horrible" as people want to say. With the usual kids weekend multiplier, it will get $35+ million. Only the people who went unusually high will get a poor score.

Hostage looks strong. Congrats to it.

All the holdovers are generally as I expected except Million Dollar Baby. What a poor increase. The Oscar effect is not helping it as much as it would normally. The Oscar effect doesn't just stop after one weekend, it usually goes for a few weeks or in general, the rest of the movies run. The drops are all 20%-ish for a few weeks, as people check the film out. MDB is not going this route, however, with a 42% Friday to Friday drop.

PEACE, Mike

Really? Where exactly did you do your research?

Recent falls for Oscar-winning movies in their week after the week after the Oscars. ( :razz: )

The Return of the King- -34%
Chicago- -29%
A Beautiful Mind- -33%
Gladiator- -80% (originally released in Summer, dropped from about 500 to 100 theater s after a one-week expansion)
American Beauty--38%
Shakespeare in Love- -27%
Titanic- -24% (it's biggest fall in its run so far, I believe)

Million Dollar Baby looks like it's headed for a drop of aobut 35% from the previous week, which puts it pretty close with the more recent Oscar winners (Chicago, A Beautiful Mind, The Reutrn of the King, and American Beauty.)

Actually, if general projections hold, MDB is looking at around a 40% drop. Seeing as how the film started out really small, had a relatively small gross compared to most best picture winners going into the awards, and is declared a masterpiece that came from behind, for it to do so, is a real disappointment. There is no doubt that MDB is doing poorly for an Oscar effect.

By the way, your only good comparison to past winners is Shakespeare in Love, which dropped only 27%. Gladiator is a silly comparison, because it already opened in the summer. Titanic, A Beautiful Mind, American Beauty, Chicago, and Return of the King all had at least $100 million already before the Oscar show. Meanwhile, MDB had only $60 million before the Oscars.

PEACE, Mike

Well, I just think that it might have run out of audiences willing to see it. I don't think that a movie about a women boxer holds a lot of interest to people, and I think Hostage took a bite out of it's audience (me and my friends were the only people under 30 in the theater).

*lol* a pope smilie

but in a better condition than the real pope these days...

Damn Robot's

Ruined my derby.

My original Robots prediction was $35M.. Because of everyone else, I raised it to $41M. You guys suck.

Also, The Passion Recut? Ouch.

The Passion actully shouldn't be that surprising, considering whenever a film gets reissiued after its on video, they don't tend to do well. I don't think the low numbers matter, and I don't think Gibson cares if there that low.

[quote="Libs"]My original Robots prediction was $35M.. Because of everyone else, I raised it to $41M. You guys suck.
[quote]
Well.....you suck more!

*is big and tough*

I went high on ROBOTS, its clear that not every cgi animation can succeed due to shitty FOX and DW cashing in on Pixar.

I loved Shrek 2 and thats about the only non pixar worth watching

I'm quite happy with the M$B numbers. It's exactly what I predicted.

The movie doesn't really appeal to most people, which is why it will only match Mystic River despite winning BP.

I didn't think MDB had a chance of making 100m, but when it got picture I figured it did.

Robots suffered a lower then expected opening, but should still still do quite well for the weekend. Using films such as 2002's Ice Age and 2004's Shark Tale and Shrek 2, the film should still finish with $36-$38 million for the weekend.

Hostage did much better then expected and should finish with $10-$12 million for the weekend, more then twice what some people were expecting.

As for The Passion Recut, perhaps this is a clear indication that the film will not be well-received as a perennial Easter release? While the film should still make $300,000-$400,000 over the weekend at best, that is an abysmal per theater average, and will likely mean that the film will not be able to keep all of its theaters through Easter weekend. At this rate the film will be lucky to be able to finish with an additional $2 million by the end of its run.

My local newspaper was talking about how churches are booking theatres like they did for the original, although not as much as last year, so a $73 PTA was unimaginably small. I was as shocked as anyone; if it wasn't a re-release then it would probably be the biggest bomb of the year.

It may have been higher, but since they don't take the booking tickets into account.

also this had no advertising.

It might do significantly better for today if churches have indeed booked theaters. According to USA Today though, many churches are opting to instead show the DVD as the original release was a "once in a lifetime opportunity" according to a pastor in Illinoise.

I think most Churches were booking for the weekend.

I saw a small ad in my newspaper among dozens of other movies and also two articles, so I'm defintely shocked that it earned so less. If no one knew about it then maybe, but not with all this press...

It will be interesting to see how it does today. If it is true that some churches booked showings as has been stated we could see a 100%+ increase, although I don't see that as very likely.

According to a quote from a theater owner in my local paper, theaters had to agree to a 3 week run of The Passion Recut to mke sure it stays until Easter.

However, I bet most theaters will cut to one showtiem a day for the next two weeks

It is on two screens at one of my theaters, but I expect it to be cut to one after this week.

I wouldn't be surprised if most theatres cut the film entirely. I bet the movie can't even make up for the electricity it costs to show it. Of course there could still be a surprise jump but I don't see this jumping too much next weekend since showing the DVD is a lot cheaper than booking a theatre.

The only thing is many theaters may be required to show the film for 3 weeks, as Chuckster pointed out, so it will probably still be around Easter weekend.

If The Passion of the Christ did ten times more then everyone is expecting over the weekend, it'd still be a major bomb. And it's not going to have that good a multiplier guys, either over the weekend or overall. It doesn't matter how close is, theaters won't keep a movie that can't even get more then 10 people to see it on opening night. (It averaged 9.3333 people a theater TOTAL yesterday)