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redspear
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 12:08 am
Posts: 1879
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baumer72 wrote: DP07 wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: DP07 wrote: It should tell you that your idea of WOM is quite different from reality and shouldn't be based on an unrepresentative sample such as your friends. Good luck with your $160+ million POTC2 prediction based on "scientific data"... Well, some data is certainly better then other data. I thought you guys were joking, but you really think it will make 160 OW? Yeah he is dead serious.
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Cromulent!
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| Mon Jul 03, 2006 6:13 pm |
 
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15563
Location: Everywhere
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baumer72 wrote: DP07 wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: DP07 wrote: It should tell you that your idea of WOM is quite different from reality and shouldn't be based on an unrepresentative sample such as your friends. Good luck with your $160+ million POTC2 prediction based on "scientific data"... Well, some data is certainly better then other data. I thought you guys were joking, but you really think it will make 160 OW? I do.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:27 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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I'm seriously gonna cry for an entire week if DP07's predictions come true.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:32 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15563
Location: Everywhere
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Eventine wrote: I'm seriously gonna cry for an entire week if DP07's predictions come true. 
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:33 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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trixster wrote: Here's my month-early prediction:
Wednesday: $18 million
Thursday: $11.5 million (-35%)
Friday: $18.5 million (+60%)
Saturday: $20 million (+10%)
Sunday: $17 million (-15%)
Monday: $14.5 million (-15%)
3-day: $55.5 million
5-day: $85 million
6-day: $99.5 million
2nd weekend: $22 million (-60%)
Domestic Gross: $185 million
International Gross: $200 million
Worldwide Gross: $385 million Wow, I really should have stuck with this. It's remarkably close, for being a month early. Even the totals should be bang on.
Sometimes I surprise myself.  _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:28 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Smooth, trixster.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 3:32 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Eventine wrote: Smooth, trixster. I know. I'm real modest, eh? _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 5:41 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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trixster wrote: trixster wrote: Here's my month-early prediction: Wednesday: $18 million Thursday: $11.5 million (-35%) Friday: $18.5 million (+60%) Saturday: $20 million (+10%) Sunday: $17 million (-15%) Monday: $14.5 million (-15%) 3-day: $55.5 million 5-day: $85 million 6-day: $99.5 million 2nd weekend: $22 million (-60%) Very nicely done.  Domestic Gross: $185 million International Gross: $200 million Worldwide Gross: $385 million Wow, I really should have stuck with this. It's remarkably close, for being a month early. Even the totals should be bang on. Sometimes I surprise myself.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:19 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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$106M opening week. Now, lets make some projections:
With the one-week multipliers of these movies. . .
Spider-Man 2 - 206.1
War of the Worlds - 204.9
Men in Black II - 203.8
Terminator 3 - 201.5
SO, the odds appear to be with it for finishing over $200M, but it wouldn't be by much. Also, none of these movies had competition the size of Pirates 2, so the multiplier could push it under.
EDIT: Re-configured as I was off on the opening week by 0.3.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 1:25 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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its pretty much set itll top out around 250 million.what are you talking about? those arew all sequels.
you conviently leave out batman begins. with thats multiplier itd make 260. there.,
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:10 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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If you're joking, excel? It's getting old.
If you're not joking? Well, you have no basis of reasoning for why it'd finish anywhere close to $250 million total, and until you do, it's hard to take anything you're saying seriously.
Oh, and War of the Worlds isn't a sequel.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:13 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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my point is actually that all those were sequels, so they were bound to be more frontloaded then backloaded. wotw was, your right. but it did have back to back 50% drops, something supey wont have to suffer through.
i think this will preform like MR MRS SMITH . big drop off second weekend then big bounce baxk
Last edited by Excel on Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:15 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Supes will be losing theaters pretty quick i'd say, especially if the 60% drop happens next week, it's holds from then on out wont be so hot.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 6:20 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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 wednesday-5.8 million - 33%
thursday-5.0 -13%
Friday-8.7 +73%
saturday-10.3 +19%
sunday-7.1 -33% 2nd weekend=26.1 million - 51%
monday-3.6 -53%
teusday: 3.4 -6%
wednesday: 3.3 - 3%
thursday: 3.0 -5% weekday total: 13.3 -64%
friday: 5.4 +80%
saturday: 6.8 +24%
sunday: 4.8 -28% 3rd weekend total: 17 million -36% total right now: 173.2 million
monday: 2.3 -53%
tuesday: 2.3
wednesday:2.1
thursday:2 weekday total: 8.7 million -35%
friday: 3.7 +83%
saturday: 4.4 +18%
sunday: 3.0 - 30% 4th weekend total: 11.1 million - 35% total rightnow: 193.0 million
monday: 1.3 - 56%
tuesday: 1.5 + 7%
wednesday: 1.5 +0%
thursday:1.2 - 6% weekday total: 5.5 -38%
friday: 2.2 million +79%
saturday: 3.1 + 38%
sunday: 2.3 -36% 5th weekend total: 7.7 million - 32% total now 206.2 million
monday: 1.0 -55%
tuesday: 1.1 +10%
wednesday: 1.1 +0
thursday: 1.0 -11% weekday total: 4.2 - 26%
friday: 1.7 +70%
saturday: 2.2 +27%
sunday: 1.5 -32% 6th weekend 5.4 million - 31% total now 215.8
monday: .7 - 56%
tuesday: .7
wednesday: .65 -5%
thursday: .64 - 6% weekday total: 2.69 -37%
friday: 1.1 +70%
saturday: 1.5 +35%
sunday: .9 - 37% weekend total: 3.5 million - 37% total now 222 million
total: 233.7 million domestically- still a dissappintment, but not that of one. overseas wil see similar wom legs. legs inflated to due to imax and kid audience disocvering it late
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:09 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32611
Location: the last free city
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i hope excel,  i hope.
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Is it 2028 yet?
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:10 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40530
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Ok excel. Now can you back up how it'll get 80%+ increases on it's Fridays? Spider-man II and WOTW got +50%s, Batman Begins +40%s, and Supes is more kiddie than those films.
I won't even address the rest of your chart for now. _________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:15 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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i used mr and mrs smith as my comparison 
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:18 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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if wb were smart thyd leave it imax till november. wed llok back and there would be 240 millon
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 7:46 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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excel, did you happen to notice in your Mr. and Mrs. Smith comparison that it didn't have any Friday increases over 70% after the 4th of July weekend?
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:18 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Magnus wrote: Alright, I'm just going to say it:
I have been COMPLETLEY wrong about EVERY THING about this film. Everything I predicted was wrong. Thought it would have a decent Thursday drop, didn't. Thought it would a get good Fri/Sat, didn't. Thought Sunday would be a drop of 20%, didn't. And so on and so forth. My reasons for it doing well were completley wrong.
This is the worst movie I have ever predicted. I am done with it for good because I will just be wrong. Just say it, you know you want to: $1 billion finish.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:25 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22199
Location: Places
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Zingaling wrote: excel, did you happen to notice in your Mr. and Mrs. Smith comparison that it didn't have any Friday increases over 70% after the 4th of July weekend? yeah but it came close a few times.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:43 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32611
Location: the last free city
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SR gross should have passed the page total of this thread (126 now) on sunday. 
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:45 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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excel wrote: Zingaling wrote: excel, did you happen to notice in your Mr. and Mrs. Smith comparison that it didn't have any Friday increases over 70% after the 4th of July weekend? yeah but it came close a few times. So, because it came close twice, you're going to make all the Saturday increases in your prediction well over 70%? It doesn't make any logical sense. None.
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:04 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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I like how he cant even find a way for it to get to 250m. He should just throw all logic out the window and give it 10% drops from here on out.
He's basically giving it better drops then BB from the 4th weekend on ( 3rd Weekend actually if you dont wanna count the Monday BB had for 4th of July )
_________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Tue Jul 04, 2006 9:08 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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excel wrote: Friday-8.7 +73%
saturday-10.3 +19%
sunday-7.1 -33% 2nd weekend=26.1 million - 51%   
With those calculations, SR is in for a weekend of $21.4M. Excel?
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:12 pm |
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