50-99

2023 (17): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
2024 (10): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One

100-149

2023 (4): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
2024 (5 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot

150-199:

2023 (7): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
2024 (4): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die

August and September was successful for 100-150 movies with It Ends With Us (looks like it'll just miss 150), Romulus and The Wild Robot if it finishes in that range. However it did very little in 50-99 category for this prime time of year, with only Transformers hitting while 2023 had Meg 2, Blue Beetle, Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X and Paw Patrol.

In October 2023 Exorcist: Believer and Killers of the Flower Moon were a 50-99, Five Night at Freddy's was a 100-149 and Taylor Swift Eras Tour was 150-199. After Joker, Smile and Venom, I'm not seeing too many other candidates in October to make more than 50 million.

Piece by Piece? It would be a pretty big disappointment for a LEGO movie to make less than $50 million.

It would've made way more coming out a few years ago when a) LEGO movies were on trend and b) closer to when Pharell had that Minions hit song, but still, $50m isn't a high bar.

50-99

2023 (19): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Exorcist: Believer, Killers of the Flower Moon
2024 (13 - projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One, Joker: Folie a Deux, Terrifier 3, Smile 2

100-149

2023 (5): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Five Nights at Freddy's
2024 (6 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, Venom: The Last Dance

150-199:

2023 (8): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
2024 (4): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die

A decent month for mids, especially considering movies like Conclave, We Live in Time, The Substance and Anora likely won't get there (maybe some chance for Conclave) but have some traction. The Wild Robot may challenge the 150+ list.

Last November hit The Marvels, Napolean and Wish for 50-100, Trolls 3 for 101-149 and The Hunger Games for 151-199

If in January someone said "Civil War looks really good, it will definitely out-gross Joker 2", they would be laughed off the forum. Close family members might even call the asylum.

But it happened. It really is one of those chance-in-a-million events, just like when Emma Raducanu won the US Open being ranked 150 in the world. Or, I suppose, it's more like Novak Djokovic going out in the first round to an unseeded player, which I don't think ever happened so Joker's failure is unprecedented!

Joker 2 with it's latest drop is surely missing $60M without some drive in match up with inflated box office grosses. Making 20% of Beetlejuice with 2X the budget...

December update:

50-99
2023 (22): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Exorcist: Believer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Marvels, Napoleon, Wish
2024 (13 - projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One, Joker: Folie a Deux, Terrifier 3, Smile 2

100-149

2023 (6): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Five Nights at Freddy's, Trolls 3
2024 (6 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, Venom: The Last Dance, Red One

150-199:

2023 (9): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbird and Snakes
2024 (6 - Projected): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, The Wild Robot, Gladiator II

This year ended up being completely UN mid with everyone saving up for the four 500 million movies and getting destroyed in the 50-99 by 2023, and it's likely to get worse as December had 4 in Godzilla Minus One, Anyone But You, The Color Purple and Boys in the Boat, along with 2 100-149 in Migration and Aquaman.

So Juror #2 is the immediate #1 on Itunes. It's been a hit in every market it actually got a theatrical release. Empire thought it had $100M+ potential.

This seems like it would have been PERFECT to open wide over Christmas.

It seems like deja vu of WB botching Tenet in 2020. With Clint's possible last movie getting such a bad reception, it feels like WB may not have learned a thing in the past 4 years.

Yeah it should've been this year's Boys on the Boat

Considering the box office was down 23.8% at the end of May for the year, getting to a 3-4% drop overall is quite an achievement.

The #5 film this weekend (Moana)'s 5day is bigger than the #1 film on Memorial Weekend's 3day (Furiosa).

I honestly feel Nosferatu has a chance at $150M. Seems like it could get some awards attention with this mega breakout and it could coast as a watercooler zeitgeist Jan film.

50-99

2023 (26): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise, No Hard Feelings, Insidious: The Red Door, Haunted Mansion, Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, The Equalizer 3, The Nun II, Saw X, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Exorcist: Believer, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Marvels, Napoleon, Wish, Godzilla Minus One, Anyone But You, The Color Purple, The Boys in the Boat


2024 (14 - projected): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield, Longlegs, Transformers One, Joker: Folie a Deux, Terrifier 3, Smile 2, A Complete Unknown

100-149

2023 (8): Scream IV, Fast X, The Flash, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Five Nights at Freddy's, Trolls 3, Migration, Aquaman
2024 (8 - projected): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF, It Ends With Us, Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot, Venom: The Last Dance, Red One, Nosferatu

150-199:

2023 (9): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Elemental, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Sound of Freedom, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbird and Snakes

2024 (5 - Projected): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, A Quiet Place: Day One, Bad Boys: Ride or Die, Gladiator II

Poor year for mids though one bright spot is 200-299s are on the rise as there were actually 0 in 2022, 3 last year and looks like 5 this year if Sonic and Mufasa join Beetlejuice, Dune and Twisters.

So indie films are clearly having the biggest turnaround I've seen since post Covid in terms of boffo box office over the last few weeks and months. I've taken out LG movies, but here's a few examples:

Nosferatu $100M+ (Focus)
A Complete Unknown $65M+ (Fox Searchlight)
Conclave $31M+ (Focus)
Babygirl $20M+ (A24)

Earlier in 2024:

Longlegs $74M (Neon)
CW $69M (A24)
Terrifier 3 $54M (Cineverse)
Challengers $50M (United Artists)
Coraline 15th Anniversary $34M (Fathom)

In 2023 we saw:

Sound of Freedom $184M (Angel)
Godzilla Minus One $57M (Toho)
Talk to Me $48M (A24)
The Boy and the Heron $47M (GKids)

Is it just me or is something vastly different happening with these type of films? Feels very nostalgic to those days of some of these small films legging out to massive box office. Nosferatu doing $100M+ is definitely going to make some waves. I didn't full go through 2022 but EEAAO's $77M tally and awards performance seems to be part of that turnaround story.

50-99 million

2023 January: 2 (A Man Called Otto, M3gan)
2024: 2 (Mean Girls, The Beekeeper)
2025: 1 One of These Days (projected)

100-149 million:

2023/2024: 0
2025: 1 Dog Man (projected)

50-99 million (by February)

2023: 4 (A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution)
2024: 3 (Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley)
2025: 1 (One of Them Days) (projected)

100-149 million

2023/2024: 0
2025: 1 (Dog Man) (projected)

150-199:

2025: 1 (Captain America: Brave New World) (projected)

The horrors just aren't delivering the 50 mil+ films anymore, movies like Novocaine and Working Man are a test whether that's a better route.

50-99 (By March)

2023 (6): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons
2024 (3): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley
2025:(3) One of Them Days, Snow White, A Working Man (projected)

100-149 million

2023 (1): Scream IV
2024 (1): Ghostbusters Afterlife
2025 (1): Dog Man

150-199:

2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV
2024: (2): Godzilla x Kong, Kung Fu Panda 4
2025 (0):

Snow White with the ignominious 50-99 like Joker 2 while Dog Man and One of Them Days are grinding to their milestones but I think will get there, while Mickey 17 has a chance but I'm predicting it doesn't.

Dog Man will need a expansion to not get stuck at 99m

50-99 (After April)

2023 (8): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise
2024 (5): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley: One Love, Civil War, Challengers
2025: (5) One of Them Days, Dog Man, Snow White, The King of Kings, The Accountant 2

100-149 million

2023 (1): Scream IV
2024 (1): Ghostbusters Afterlife
2025 (0):

150-199:

2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV
2024: (2): Godzilla x Kong, Kung Fu Panda 4
2025 (0):

No movies in the 100s from Jan-Apr.

May was one of the biggest mid months last year as Furiosa, Fall Guy and Garfield were in the 50-99 and IF and Apes in the low/high 100s.

50-99 (After May)

2023 (8): A Man Called Otto, M3gan, Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, Air, Evil Dead Rise
2024 (8): Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Bob Marley, Civil War, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Furiosa, Garfield
2025: (6) One of Them Days, Dog Man, Snow White, The King of Kings, The Accountant 2, Karate Kid: Legends

100-149

2023 (2): Scream IV, Fast X
2024 (2): Ghostbusters Afterlife, IF
2025 (1): Final Destination: Bloodlines

150-199:

2023 (2): Creed III, John Wick: Chapter IV
2024 (2): Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
2025 (2): Thunderbolts, Mission: Impossible - Final Reckoning

Strong month for 100 million films and June has some candidates for these lists in Ballerina, 28 Years Later, Elio, F1, M3gan