This weekend is one for the ages

Nolan absolutely needs too send WB a thank you. 0% chance Oppenheimer opens to that preview number if it is by itself.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office- ... eviews/any

Pretty crazy to see Barbie up there on this list, and above The Batman lol. Minus midnights its in the top 20 previews ever.

Here's some surprising box office tidbits show how July has been vastly underutilized.

-Up until this weekend, the month has only seen 10 $100M+ OW's.
-Only 2 of the top 6 OW's have been in the last 11 years (Thor Love and Thunder, TLK)
-HP8 Part 2 ($169M) remains the #2 biggest OW despite opening 12 years ago.
-By the end of this weekend looks like WB could own 4/5 of the top OWs this month if Barbie does $144M+.
-TDKR and TDK still are in the top 4 OWs despite opening 11 and 15 years ago respectably. POTC is #6 still despite opening 17 years ago.

Apparantly last night's breakdown was 71% female for Barbie and 65% male for Oppenheimer.

Here's some demo data that's come in so far:

Barbie
-82% general audiences, with 11% kids under 12 and parents repping 7%.
-71% female. 30% women over 25, 41% women under 25, 14% men over 25, and 16% men under 25.
-Higher rate of tickets-per-transaction – some chains reporting an average of three tickets per purchase – higher than normal for a comedy, indicating healthy group sales.

Oppenheimer
-18-34 crowd showed up at 66%!!!
-Male 65%. 40% men over 25, 24% men under 25, 19% women over 25, and 16% women under 25.


Biggest surprise here is Oppenheimer is skewing very young even if previews! Older crowds have barely seen it so far but seems like a must see event for young males. This will help in immensely become much biggest than just an adult drama and surpass Nolan's usual.

Oppenheimer skewing younger last night does make me think it'll have some longetivity and legs. Wow if that $400m happens lolol


All the films that have Oppenheimer's preview #s opened to at least 90m... jesus christ

Of course impacted by Covid by Tenet was at 64% male with an over 25 crowd at 61%.

Dunkirk over 25 at 50%. Interestingly, Dunkirk played very well to younger guys as well and played well across the country and was very impressive in the midwest.

This weekend just makes MI, IJ, The Flash look so much worse. At least Transformers and Elemental have semi redeemed themselves.

And the only non-sequel/prequels ahead of it are Black Panther and The Lion King. That's maybe the craziest part for me.

Also worth noting, only eight movies in history have made over $32M in previews/midnight: three Star Wars, four Marvels, and Harry Potter 8. All of those were movies that were known juggernauts that had zero competition and were allowed to dominate nearly every screen available. Barbie and Oppenheimer making a combined $32.8M is just...bonkers. I really don't think either movie had the potential make much more than that. Could their combined raw Friday gross be similarly capped in the $55M range, since very very few movies have made that much? Gah this weekend is so bonkers!

Bullshit. Nolan is the biggest director in Hollywood. I can tell for sure presales for Oppenheimer started well before Barbie and was already off to a great start. This Barbenheimer added just 200K tickets to the weekend and all of them outside the previews. You cannot see both on thursday.

I know people who did, in fact, see both on Thursday. It's crazy how these two have become a double feature. Without the press this weekend and Barbenheimer have gotten it would have opened way less. It's nuts to me that a 3 hour drama is going to open with as much as it's going to. But that's awesome. I hope this weekend just gets bigger and bigger.

They're certainly benefiting one another. You can debate how much, but both are doing better by releasing together.

Sound pulled $3.7M yesterday (-19.1% from last Thursday). If it follows that drop into the weekend it will pull $22.1M. Feel like its going to do better than that this weekend. Say $24M.

MI dropped to $3.4M to #4 (-59.0% from last Thursday). If it follows that trajectory into the weekend it will pull $22.4M. Probably will make a run for #3 if its close to Sound though. Poor MI will only be getting to $100M today since it missed it yesterday.

IJ pulled $1.3M (-43.0% vs last week). If it follows it's dailies from last weekend that would give it $7.0M.

Barbie still hasn't seen the full benefit of families seeing it yet with just 9% kids yesterday so those matinee figures will be something to watch.

Oppenheimer skewed so much younger than I was expecting. I think this puts its high end much higher for the weekend as more older people see it. I wouldn't be shocked if it eeks out a $100M OW/

So with rough estimates, here is what the weekend could look like ($320M tally for top 6):

1 Barbie $170M
2 Oppenheimer $90M
3 Sound $24M -12%
4 MI $22.4M -59%
5 IJ $7.0M -43%
6 Elemental $6.5M -30%

Combined true friday for B+O should be in 80m ball park. Barbie has no constraints in bigger markets today and so we will see it play to its potential. Lack of Imax has impact just on average ticket price. I am thinking 50-52m for now. Let us see how the day goes.

Oppenheimer sold more tickets for friday yesterday than walkups for thursday !!! That is mainly due to limited prime time shows. Today it has twice the show count it had yesterday. I think its going for mid to high 20s Friday. Crazy would be if it hits 30m true friday. That is not out of realm of possibilities.

Awesome numbers for both. Lets go Barbenheimer!

I can't get over how young Oppenheimer is skewing. This whole viral meme weekend will be so hard to replicate but shows Hollywood how to get young people to care about this type of drama.

Will surpass Elvis to be the biggest drama since 2019. With an OW like this, could it pass 2019's Joker ($335M)? Would be only the second $200M+ drama we've seen in the last five years.

2018 had Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born both get to $200M which Oppenheimer looks to be past by as early as next weekend.

Murphy is about to anchor a $300M+ film.

This weekend will be one for the history books!

I am glad box office is not just about MCU as it has been most of COVID era except Maverick.

This makes me VERY bullish for the Joker 2 next year. It was already going to be massive but a Joker musical is so ridiculous that they might have something big there. Feel like the viral opportunities on that one could be endless. Combine opening the month of Halloween and it's going to be a big event for weeks.

It's an alternate multiverse where Barbie and Ken turn into Harley Quinn and the Joker.

Yeah I've always sensed Joker 2 is gonna be huge, especially with Gaga. The first teaser will probably break the internet.

Barbie's opening is so huge that I can't even fathom what kind of legs it will have. Weekdays will be strong and I'm thinking there will be spillover for next weekend because of how crowded this one is.

BIGGER THAN:

GOTG3
ANTMAN 3
ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
AVATAR 2
THE BATMAN
TOP GUN MAVERICK

#GIRLPOWER

Interesting article on the work Mattel did to get here. Given how bad WB has done with its releases overall the last 4 years, this success feels 80% Mattel + Greta + Margot + Gosling and maybe 20% WB.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90925242/ba ... led-it-off

Mattel were very wise to do a 180 on the attitude they used to have in the 90s, suing Aqua for "Barbie Girl".

Check on zwackerm, he must be having a heart attack from the feeling of his masculinity breaking in front of our eyes

Elemental's first day below 1m will probably be on Monday. Since it's still in 2700+ theaters it should still play for awhile.

Early Deadline Friday #s:
Barbie - 68-70
Oppenheimer - 32
MI - 6.6

They're also projecting a 54% drop for MI, which doesn't sound horrible so hopefully that sticks.