Sunday should be down 40-45%

Definitely not 45%. There will be spillover audience for uber openers. Imax/PLF tend to fill up easily on sunday as well. We have not had an uber opener during this weekend for a while. Last big one was BvS and that dropped 33.3% on sunday.

I was just looking at last year’s crop for comparison

Universal is becoming the new behemoth on the block

We did not even have a big opener last year. This is a uber opener. So it will hold better than say holdovers this weekend.

Oh lol, you are not tired of being wrong every time.

You do realize Mario Bros. Is literally the biggest gaming franchise of all times, bar none. Everyone in their life has played it at least once. We millenials will literally rush to watch it.

But thank you for once again proving your ignorance on everything real life related lulz

Detective Pikachu didn't do nearly as well as it should've. Coming out one week after Avengers plus horrible casting plus the weird 'talking Pikachu' angle halved its gross IMO. If they had called it 'Pokemon', released it in spring and with the Ash/Misti/Brock storyline it would've been a monster.

Maybe that's why the Super Mario movie is doing so well---it's really giving audiences exactly the kind of faithful adaptation they wanted.

Deadline is saying 22m+ for Mario thursday. Air - 2.5m thursday. Good for Air. That means it increase minus sneaks from 1st day number.

Mario will go up from these earlier estimates. I am seeing closer to 25m than 22m. This is a juggernaut at this point.

+1 for Mau

+2 for Mau #wahoo

I literally said adults will go opening weekend, see it’s a movie aimed at little kids, and it will become a babysitter movie.

I understand that there are many adult fans of Mario, but they did a very bad job of making a film, even if it’s faithful to the game.

I’ve played many Mario games. The plots are very bare bones. You need a great filmmaker to translate something like that to film, they did a really bad job on everything other than references and Easter eggs

After seeing it I'm gonna up my prediction to $500M. It's not an amazing movie by any stretch, but it's a four-quadrant crowdpleaser that got major applause at the end. This is going to be a whole generation of kid's favorite movie.

Would be fitting for the TikTok generation honestly

That's exactly what I was thinking. The movie moves so fast and always has a new scenario/level scrolling by to keep the audience entertained. That doesn't leave much time for the dramatic magic that we see in top tier animation, but I think that's gonna actually help with the box office. Kids will go back many times so long as Universal keeps it off Peacock until at least midsummer.

I did a quick calculation and Universal has a possible chance to do $2B domestic this year which is crazy considering that was the annual gross just 3 years ago. Puss holdover, M3Gan, CB, Mario, Fast X, Trolls, Migration, etc.

I'm feeling a major breakout for Paramount for TMNT in August too as it very much feels like the TMNT movie that fans have always wanted in the vein of a Mario but on a smaller scale.

Seems like Universal and Paramount are up for big years building on Paramount's TGM breakout. MI is also a big wildcard for me. How mega big can it go from TGM goodwill?

Sony could also do really well. Apparently Spider-verse's new trailer got 149M views in 24 hours, significantly more than GOTG3 and The Flash so is primed for a megabreakout. TBH, other than Joker 2, Spiderverse is the only superhero movie I really want to see. They wrapped filming on The Joker already so feel like the only reason they are waiting and putting it in fall 2024 is because Joaquin is probably going for Oscar contention with Napoleon. Don't make us wait that long.

Charlie is saying 26m thursday and my comp for AMC is suggesting 25m. Either way crazy strong hold and as I said presales for tomorrow suggests low to mid 50s friday. Its definitely going for 200m over 5 day. I grossly underestimated its 3 day for the monthly game despite having PS data :-(

The game is about a gigant turtle that spits fire and kidnaps a princess. The hero is a plumber that is jumping over smaller turtles and mushrooms to get to the big bad's castle.

Tell me what the fuck were you expecting from it? For Mario to become a good person and rescue Peach by talking, doing a psychological analysis on Bowser and make him give up by talking? Go fuck yourself.

The movie delivers WHAT THE ENTIRE WORLD was expecting. Thats why it is a success. Mindless fun. But I guess you are not allow3d to understand how life works.

Mother of god if this does $190m+ 5-day. Wowwww

Will easily pass that, it's aiming for $200mil

Kudos to one of the best marketing campaigns of all time

Looking like $26.5m+ to me...

Sonic did $190M last year. Was there any surprise that Mario which was the bestselling video game franchise of all time would demolish that with a film the fans wanted? Sonic actually paved the pave here imo as Paramount redoing the special effects on Sonic after the bad initial trailer response led to massive grosses and success as the biggest video game movie of all time (probably until Sunday when Mario passes it). The Universal, Illumination and Nintendo teams got a good sense that they had to make their marketing catering to that fanbase to hit a home run and what they wanted to see and clearly they did.

This feels a bit like what Xmen was to comic book movies pre-Spiderman. Xmen was a big success and changed how studios looked at comic book movies. Sonic feels like Xmen (2000) while Mario is Spider-man (2002). That category had so many flops in the 90s that had huge bad press and sort of feels like how video games have had some notoriously stinky movies come out. The video game IP movie age is upon us!

Box office wise, it appears there isn't much frontloading or rush out yet so as inflated as Weekend 1 will be due to the holiday I think Mario should stabilize by weekend 3.

Studio estimate is 26.5. Insane drop considering it had some midnights. So minus midnights wednesday was under 31m. Thursday actually had stronger walkups than wednesday. So this movie is expanding its audience. Based on presales I am expecting at least 55m friday. Definitely making 200m+. Could go as high as 225m.

I’m happy to see a new Uber blockbuster franchise born, even if I think the film is not good.