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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22197
Location: Places
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 Re: Weekend Estimates Magnus wrote: It’s still so mind boggling to me that two years ago, Last Jedi opened with the second biggest OW ever and we felt that SW was still at least the biggest franchise domestically as we all felt it would find a way close to 700m.
In the 24 months after its OW, we saw TLJ had medicore legs lead to 620m, Solo bomb, three MCU films all do sizably more than TLJ, and ROS open to potentially at #15 of all time and likely sub 500m total. I would note that the position you describe is pretty much exactly where Attack of the Clones and Sith fell. In the mid 2000s, Spider-man, Pirates, Shrek, and Matrix all had decisively more anticipated films with many doing more in gross than Star Wars as well. The Dark Knight and Transformers 2 were a few years later and also handily beat Sith's inflated gross. Among the last 6 films, Phantom Menace and Force Awakens are the real anomalies as far as total goes. Sith and Last Jedi also did very well but not the insane heights of the previous films while Clones and ROTS were much below. Overall the brand is huge but its definitely been oversaturated at the moment. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:06 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19406
Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend Estimates Weekend actuals - 177.38m
x3 multiplier would be right around Rogue One. If this week is good I could see it getting there.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:56 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22197
Location: Places
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Re: Weekend Estimates Folks w/ insider access @ Theory resales are rebust for the next 7 days. Maybe this will leg out a respectable gross after all
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:04 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22197
Location: Places
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Re: Weekend Estimates Magnus wrote: Excel wrote: ROTS broke the midnight record by a mile and would have had the biggest OW ever if it was released on a Friday (it would have done in the high 130s IMO and POTC2 OW would have fallen short of it). From the six year stretch between SM1 to TDK, the only films that grossed more than ROTS was Shrek 2 and POTC2. SW was not lesser than any of those films. Sith crushed midnights due to the sheer volume of screens that wasn't replicated until TDK. Even w. bonkers midnights, its opening day was still several million below Pirates 2. I don't think Sith on a Friday opens to Pirates 2 numbers but it would have been close. Obviously Spider-man 3 out opened Sith as did TDK, Transformers 2 would have had it opened on a Friday too. Clones obviously is well behind numerous films in terms of opening significance. SW is huge but PHANTOM MENACE and DA FORCE AWAKENS are anomalies. _________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:36 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Re: Weekend Estimates Magnus wrote: I wish Disney could have fucked up the MCU like this instead of SW. Hear hear.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:36 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15553
Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend Estimates Magnus wrote: Excel wrote: I would note that the position you describe is pretty much exactly where Attack of the Clones and Sith fell. In the mid 2000s, Spider-man, Pirates, Shrek, and Matrix all had decisively more anticipated films with many doing more in gross than Star Wars as well ROTS broke the midnight record by a mile and would have had the biggest OW ever if it was released on a Friday (it would have done in the high 130s IMO and POTC2 OW would have fallen short of it). I had a formula I once used to calculate 141m.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:39 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15553
Location: Everywhere
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Re: Weekend Estimates TROS had just above TFA preview to opening multiplier. Way down from TLJ. Less anticipation than TFA might have benefited that number. But it looks like holiday deflation made the big difference with the 20th release date.
Frozen made it all the way near 13m! Looks to have a good shot at 475m.
Dark Waters down 83%. Now it doesn’t have the theaters or the theater average. It won’t benefit from the holidays, and even if the theater average increases, it doesn’t look like it will be able to expand much for any award nominations.
Last edited by DP07 on Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:46 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 19406
Location: San Diego
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Re: Weekend Estimates RTH going with 29.5m Monday. Good #.
So should be well over 350m by end of this weekend. Let's see how high.
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| Tue Dec 24, 2019 12:04 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36949
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Re: Weekend Estimates That is indeed great number though its so difficult to compare these movies with such varying release days.
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| Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:17 am |
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