Actually, I call mine reality and everyone else is crazy :razz:.


*****MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND BASED ON THE ESTIMATES*****

1. STAR WARS: EPISODE 3 - 82.7 MILLION (3-Day)/114.7 MILLION (4-Day)
2. MONSTER-IN-LAW - 14.4 MILLION
3. KICKING & SCREAMING - 12.5 MILLION
4. UNLEASHED - 6.4 MILLION
5. CRASH - 5.3 MILLION
6. KINGDOM OF HEAVEN - 4.8 MILLION
7. HOUSE OF WAX - 3.2 MILLION
8. THE INTERPRETER - 2.4 MILLION
9. HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE - 2.1 MILLION
10. MINDHUNTERS - 1 MILLION

Opening Day: $42m
Weekend Gross: $92.4m
4-Day Gross: $134.4m

May 20, 2005 // Predictions..

01. STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH: $75.5 million (3-day) ; $105.0 million (Full)
02. MONSTER-IN-LAW: $14.5 million
03. KICKING & SCREAMING: $13.0 million
04. UNLEASHED: $5.5 million
05. CRASH: $5.5 million
06. KINGDOM OF HEAVEN: $4.0 million
07. HOUSE OF WAX: $3.0 million
08. THE INTERPRETER: $2.5 million
09. THE HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE TO THE GALAXY: $1.5 million
10. xXx - STATE OF THE UNION: $1.0 million
11. MINDHUNTERS: $0.9 million

*****EARLY PREDICTIONS*****

STAR WARS: EPISODE III - 82.5 Million (3-Day)/ 112.5 Million (5-Day)

My predictions will simple


Next week's headline in the news

"record weekend for Sith can't save box office"

Sith will break the record but total box office will still trail last year.

That's true, but it'll give this year a jump start on last year, and hopefully get people interested in movies again.

For now...

Star Wars Episode III -- $108.0 million // $152.0 million
Monster-in-Law -- $14.0 million
Kicking and Screaming -- $12.5 million

Sorry guys but I think most of you are predicting WAY too high for ROTS.

Underestimating the huge fanbase for Star Wars, you are.

I fail to see the reasoning why Sith would only make $2.5 million more opening weekend than Clones' $80,027,814.

Even if they are overpredicting, there are logical reasons for those high predictions, whereas your 82.5/112.5 is completely insane.

Come to my thread throughout the week, and I'll see what I can do about getting you to up that prediction before we all snicker at you this weekend.

Reminds me of all of those "insanely low" predictions for The Ring Two. :wink:

But I agree and am predicting over $100 million for Sith

$97 million weekend for Episode III
$136.8 million 4 day

Too low! I just changed my thread title to put a number on it. It's 150 Million all the way!!! \:D/

Ditto! With some of these extremely high predictions I think a lot of people will end up disappointed with its gross next weekend.

I agree! It'll do amazing, of course, but why will SITH do SO much better than CLONES in many of your opinions?

SITH won't be the biggest opener of the summer, that'll be LORDS OF DOGTOWN! Kidding

Well one reason is this one is PG-13 and the others were PG . I know that won't really matter but still :razz:. And if the fanbase is so huge where were they for CLONES? Sure it did really well, but not as huge as you guys are predicting for this one. I still know it will open with more than CLONES, but I don't see it opening with a ton more like some others do.

I'm raising my prediction a bit since CLONES did have the recently opened megahit SPIDER-MAN to deal with so that took away some people. People will have nothing better to see now so they'll go to this one . Of course, there are a TON of movies playing I'd pick over it, but that's just me :razz:.

I'm going to predict 85.7 Million (3-Day) and 118.7 Million (4-Day).

At least it won't beat SPIDER-MAN's 3-Day record! It very well could have if it had opened on a Friday though.

Spider-Man was cutting into Clones' box office from the start, and also stole it's thunder by becoming a phenomenon. Nothing doing that now. Lucas didn't understand how frontloading worked, which is why he only opened in 3161 theaters, and not the number that Sith will be getting. I trust that you do understand how frontloading is a pretty big factor in a box office, especially in summer when new releases come out every week that are big hitters? Seriously, if you can't see "how" just by those two simple examples, be prepared to hide in shame after the Thursday numbers come in, because you're going to get an education on why those two factors alone will be significant.

Reasons for a huge weekend


1. Its Star Wars: Enough said, do not underestimate the box office potential of a Star Wars film.

2. Fanbase: Revenge of the Sith is the only movie opening anytime soon with a noted fanbase.

3. Lack of competition: Only weakened holdovers will be sharing theaters with Revenge of the Sith.

4. Theater Count: Attack of the Clones made $80 million/$110 million in only 3,161 theater, Revenge of the Sith is predicted to open in over 3,700 theaters.

5. First Tentpole Film: Strange as it seems Revenge of the Sith is the first tentpole film and indeed the first big box office movie of summer. In 2002 Attack of the Clones was the second tentpole film of the summer and opened in very close proximity to the first tentpole film Spider-Man.

back down to earth

ROTS $95m 3 day, $136m 4 day
K&S - $14m
MIL - $12m
Unleashed - $5.5m
KOH - $4.5m

You really have to ask this?? Darth Vader, Chewbacca, tons of action and great reviews thus far and you have to ask this??? According to FANDANGO, They've sold anywhere between 150-200 Million worth of tickets that could possibly be the largest weekend opeing in movie history.. I'll say by Sunday, SITH will have grossed between 160-200 Million and by Monday morning, analysts will have that deer in the headlight look going..

Well, I honestly think STAR WARS is going to be huge. More so than PHANTOM MENACE and ATTACK OF THE CLONES. When those two films came out, there was no buzz around school at all. Everyone is talking about how they're excited to see REVENGE OF THE SITH and everywhere is selling out tickets for midnight shows and regular shows too. I normally wouldn't be making such a huge prediction but I'm pretty sure I'll be right when it comes to this ...

Three Day - $125 million
Four Day - $170 million

Because CLONES wasn't the one episode that counts in this particular trilogy much less MENACE.. It belongs to EPISODE III, which is the REAL EPISODE I, what that should've been in 1999 and wasn't and by my standards, I think once this is all said and done, the concensus will be that Lucas could've just did away with the other 2 movies and made this and the fans would've been equally forgiving for it whether it wasn't a trilogy or not.... Also, the whole PG-13 rating is a farce and made out to be more than what it should be so it's not gonna deter anyone from seeing this.. This Mike will be HUGE.. Take my word on it..

The Weekend Warrior predictions are up. I enjoy their analysis, but I think they lack a little in ability to read the market, and don't always weigh all the options. Their predictions aren't really the best.

They predict $38-40M Thursday and $93-$95M weekend, totally $131-$$135M

Too low! :down:

http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2005/may20.php