Here's another article about the less than thrilling box office. Some of it sounds like spin, but it does bring up some opposing points. (I also highlighted one specific part that is in reference to another thread in this forum)

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117922511?c=10

Stop the madness
Reports of B.O. death greatly exaggerated

By GABRIEL SNYDER

Is the sky really falling at the box office?

Despite a steady drumbeat of dour diagnoses -- spurred by this past weekend's weak summer start -- a closer look at the numbers shows the movie business has been surprisingly healthy so far this year.

While fewer wide releases have bowed in 2005 -- and none of them has been "The Passion of the Christ" -- they are performing on average much better than the 2004 crop.

Also, many think a lot of the talk about the shrinking audience is going to be difficult to square with next week's expected monster opening for "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith."

"The sky isn't falling," said Warner Bros. distribdistrib prexyprexy Dan Fellman. "It's important to look at where we are going."

Through last Sunday, receipts for 2005 stand at nearly $2.6 billion, according to Nielsen EDI. Over the same period last year they were almost $2.8 billion, meaning 2005 is running 6% (or $178 million) behind last year.

But it is impossible to talk about early 2004's box office without mentioning "The Passion," which, with $367 million in grosses before summer, was responsible for 14% of the entire spring and winter total.

At the time, some argued that because "Passion" had brought in so many people who hadn't been to the movies in years, its grosses weren't a good measure of the overall health of the marketplace (Daily Variety, May 19).

In fact, if it weren't for Mel GibsonMel Gibson and his crucifixion pic, 2004's winter and spring grosses would have been down 8% from 2003. Likewise, if you compare the 2005 winter and spring receipts to a "Passion"-less 2004, this year's box office is running 8% ahead of 2004.

The other big difference between this year and last year is that there have been far fewer wide releases thus far. In 2004, 52 pics were launched at 1,000 or more theaters in the winter and spring. This year there were just 39.

And this year's crop of pics has performed, on the whole, far better. Of last year's wide releases, 29 -- more than half -- opened lower than $10 million, and among them were some clunkers no studio would wish to repeat: "The Alamo" (which went on to cume only $22 million), "Envy""Envy" ($13 million), "Connie and Carla""Connie and Carla" ($8 million), "The Big Bounce""The Big Bounce" ($6.5 million) and "Against the Ropes""Against The Ropes" ($6 million).

Still, taken together, those low-grossing films (not every pic that opens below $10 million is a bomb) combined for a pretty big chunk of bizbiz: Just their opening weekend grosses total $181 million -- or more than the entire gap between 2005 and 2004.

This year, only 10 of the 39 wide releases have failed to open bigger than $10 million. On the whole, the early wide releases in 2005 already have an average gross of $48 million per title. Last year, the eventual cume per pic was $45 million -- or $36 million not including "The Passion."

It doesn't matter much to theaters owners which movies people show up for -- tickets and popcorn cost the same at hits as they do at flops -- so studios see the bigger average gross per picture as a positive sign.

"It's better for the studios that those films didn't come out," said Revolution partner Tom SherakTom Sherak, noting, "Even though they didn't work, they were a lot of business for exhibitors in concessions and whatever else."

This year, the studios have done a much better job at building hits before summer. So far in 2005, four pictures have grossed more than $100 million: "Hitch" ($178 million), "Robots" ($125 million), "Meet the Fockers" (which took in $117 million of its $279 million cume this year) and "The Pacifier" ($109 million). A fifth, "Million Dollar Baby," came very close, with $98.8 million for the year. Similarly, in 2003 and 2002, there were five films that had grossed more than $100 million through the first weekend of May.

Last year, though, other than "The Passion," only "50 First Dates" had crossed the century mark, with $120 million through this point.

Nonetheless, no one is disputing that summer got off to a soft start last weekend. Led by "Kingdom of Heaven's" disappointing $20 million bowbow, total box office for the weekend, according to Nielsen EDI, was $87 million, one of the worst starts for summer ever.

But one disappointment doesn't define a summer.

Fox is opening "Sith" on the same weekend that "Shrek 2" bowed last year, and the "Star Wars" sequel could rival the toontoon 's $108 million opening. And during the Fourth of July weekend, where last year "Spider-Man 2" bowed with $116 million over four days, Paramount and DreamWorks have "War of the Worlds"

A big "Revenge of the Sith" bow will do much to quiet the box office pessimists. New Line is expecting big business for "Monster-in-Law" this weekend, as are Paramount and DreamWorks for, respectively, "The Longest Yard" and "Madagascar" over the Memorial Day span.

"You can quote me on this," Sherak said: "Give us some rain on Memorial Day, and Katie, bar the door!"

Here's CNNs story about the declining box office.

Hollywood's box office flameout

Movie fans are loving DVDs, but not theaters. Maybe it's time for a big change in movie viewing.

May 11, 2005: 9:53 AM EDT
By Krysten Crawford, CNN/Money staff writer


http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/10/news/fo ... tm?cnn=yes

Actually the first quarter box office of 2005 was stronger then the first quarter box office of 2004 despite no Passon of the Christ type movie. The first quarter of 2005 (January thru March) earned $1,676.9 million at the box office while the first quarter of 2004 earned 1,672.1 million these numbers according to BOM.

Adding another reason to the pile...bad weather. We had a cold and wet spring. When it's 45° and damp outside, who's going to haul off the warm sofa to see a "summer" movie?

And I think DVD has a bigger impact than we think. Not necessarily that DVD's are coming out sooner; it's more like the urgency is totally gone. All the time when a movie is in theatres, it's in the back of your mind: "Well, there's always the DVD." Even LotR loonies held off on the repeat viewings, knowing that the "real" movies were coming out later.

Of course, DVD will never cut into LotR or Pirates or heck, even Van Helsing, just on visuals alone. But it DOES cut into small dramas.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111792 ... id=10&cs=1

B.O. bridal party
Diva laffer 'Monster' tops another tepid frame

By GABRIEL SNYDER

'Monster-in-Law' topped the weekend box office with a gross of $24 million.


Three successful film openings over the weekend -- led by the $24 million bowbow for New Line's "Monster-in-Law" -- weren't enough to snap a now 12-week weak streak at the box office.

"Monster-in-Law," which unspooled at 3,424 theaters, was a career-best opening for both Jennifer Lopez and Jane Fonda.

Not too far behind was the Will Ferrell family pic "Kicking & Screaming" with $20.9 million at 3,455 venues.

Also opening strongly was Rogue's Jet Li actioner "Unleashed," with $10.6 million from 1,957 locations.

Failing to make much of an impact at the box office, Dimension's thriller "Mindhunters" grossed $2 million from 1,040 engagements, and ranked No. 10 for the frame.

Claiming the No. 4 spot was 20th Century Fox's "Kingdom of Heaven" with $9.6 million in its second week, down 51%.

Holding extremely well in its sophomore session was Lions Gate "Crash," down just 21% with $7.2 million, which ranked fifth.

Warners' horror pic "House of Wax," also in its soph seshsesh, followed with $6.3 million, a 48% drop from its opening.

Elsewhere, Warner Bros.' best picture winner "Million Dollar Baby" crossed the $100 million mark in its 22nd week of release with $182,000 from 345 theaters this weekend. Its cume stands at $100.15 million.

All told, though, the weekend's $103 million in total box office, as estimated by Nielsen EDI, is 8% behind last year's mark when "Troy" debuted with $47 million.

Weekend results have been behind 2004 numbers for 12 weeks, a span that stretches back to February, which is the longest stretch in the last 14 years. In 1991, there 14 weekends that trailed the year-prior figures and in 1985, frames drooped for 17 straight weeks.

More importantly, year-to-date box office continues to trail 2004. With $2.715 billion through this weekend, 2005 is off last year by 7%.

'Monster' bash

Still, individually, film perfs have been strong so far this year. And New Line is extremely pleased with "Monster's" surprise victory this weekend.

Arguing that the results disproved the mostly negative reviews for "Monster," New Line's distrib prexy David Tuckerman said, "This is a popular movie that people want to see. "

While tracking had shown strong interest from women, Tuckerman said exit surveys showed that the movie got more support than expected from men.

The polls showed the aud was 60% female -- a slightly lower proportion than showed up at sneaks last May 8. Men, Tuckerman said, "were easier to bring than normal."

Like "Monster," "Kicking & Screaming" was produced for around $45 million.

"Kicking" reps the third straight Ferrell starrer to open at more than $20 million but also in second place: "Elf's" $31 million bow trailed "The Matrix Revolutions" and last summer's "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy" bowed at $28.4 million but was behind the second week of "Spider-Man 2."

U's distrib topper Nikki Rocco said "The picture's performance exceeded the tracking's expectations."

She predicted that because of its heavy family traffic, the PG-rated laffer will hold better than other titles in the marketplace against the coming onslaught Thursday of PG-13-rated "Star Wars: Episode III -- The Revenge of the Sith."

Polls showed that 60% of "Kicking's" opening weekend aud was kids under 12 and their parents.

"Family films like ours tend to have good playability," Rocco said.

At Focus Features, which runs the Rogue label, distrib chief Jack Foley said they were relieved by the opening of "Unleashed."

"We were really kind of sweating last week with the estimates and the tracking being what they were but the grosses really came through," he said. "We're now equipped with a competitive opening to plunge into the rest of the month."

'Crash' holds strong

Showing considerable durability was "Crash." Lions Gate distrib head Steven Rothenberg noted that its 21% second week drop was the second best hold of the year behind the 12% drop "Are We There Yet?" had back in January.

"I think 'Crash' is going to be the early summer sleeper for adults," he said.

In the limited market, Paramount Classics had a scorching debut for doc "Mad Hot Ballroom." Playing two screens in GothamGotham , pic grossed $45,000 over the three-day span, averaging $22,500 per screen. Label co-head David Dinerstein said, "Not only did it play to a specialized audience, but we also saw families." Doc expands to six more markets Friday and the will be on about 45 to 50 screens for the Memorial Day span.

Also opening well was Sony Pictures Classics ' "Layer Cake," which picked up $82,628 from 10 screens.

Thinkfilm's Haskell Wexler doc "Tell Them Who You Are" bowed on one screen at L.A.'s Arclight and grossed $5,150.

Among the holdovers, Tartan and TLA's "Mysterious Skin" continued to play strongly in its second week at the Film Forum, grossing $17,605. That was up slightly from its opening.

Roadside Attractions' "Ladies in Lavender," in its third week, found $218,700 from 54 engagements, averaging $4,050 per screen. Cume now stands at $613,220.

Roadside and Samuel Goldwyn's "Walk on Water" chugged along in its 11th week with $100,205 from 43 screens, bringing its cume past $1.6 million.

IFC's "Brothers" counted $10,893 in its second week. Playing on three screens, pic averaged $3,631 and pushed its cume to $24,079.

Magnolia's doc "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," continues to hold well. Playing 119 screens now, it grossed $400,000, for an average of $3,361 per engagement. Cume is now $1.6 million.

In its second week, Laemmle/Zeller's home run ball mania doc "Up for Grabs" grossed $5,057 from four screens, averaging $1,264.