How is historical epic genre a positive effect? Historical epics in the past two years have done pretty badly, the only one doing OK business in the US was Troy. I'm thinking Kingdom of Heaven will go a little over what King Arthur did.

well MG .. its how you look at it at the end of the day .... While Historical dramas HAVE under performed, other than an exception or 2 have returned a somewhat consistent number .. meaning while one genre may give results in the 300 million as as well 10 million, historical dramas still manage to give you THAT certain amount ...

Its like a cult movie. We all know a cult movie usually never even gets upto a 100 million but they all seem to consistently deliver in that 55 to 80 million range.

Where are people getting these "good reviews" from?


The reviews I've read for Kingdom of heave are mixerd, at best.

Great News

Ebert and Roeper reviewed it this weekend. 2 Thumbs Up.

Good article! I think your opening is possible. It's May. If this is viewed as the first big film of the summer, it should be able to reach that number, if not, beyond. The final will totally depend on how well received, but I would guess that 100 million is reasonable.

I agree with what Archie said about the legs. I'm pretty sure it will have a multiplier of at least 3 as the audience should be older. In fact, I'd go with a multiplier of about 3.5.

Thats excellent news considering Ebert hated Gladiator and put Alexander and Troy as his worst films of the year. He hates historical epics for some reason. At imdb, its already at 7.9

Great news indeed, glowing reviews from two of the more famous critics. Could bring a few more butts in the seats. =D>

If Ebert and Roper give it two thubs up it is assured of being Fresh.

Well, didn't Fever Pitch get two thumbs up? :wink:

But, anyways, Kingdom Of Heaven has to get higher than Troy on RT. Ridley Scott can't make that bad of a movie.

But LOTR loonies will not see another film that looks like LOTR. Unless it is directed by PJ and has Legolas and Strider in it, no film will capture the imagination of loonies enough to make them want to see the film. This film will be DOA the first Friday of it's release. This film was a bad idea from the start.

Yes but the surprise was that Ebert liked it when he has hated so many historical epics in the past decade from Troy to Gladiator

Somehow I don't think Ebert's endorsement of a film is going to bring hordes of people to the theater.

Well, I more or less agree with the prediction. My own is about the same. However, as far as the reviews go, it doesn't seem to be another Gadiator. With five reviews in at RT, it stands at 60% and an average rating of 5.9/10. Hopefully, it can get better.

The analysis is carefully written, but as it has been said before, it should rather be compared to The Last Samurai and King Arthur than Gangs of New York.

Also, there are two things I disagree on big time. I think that the "Historical Epic Genre"'s Effect is much rather Negative than positive. The audiences in the USA don't seem to be flocking to theatres for such movies. Alexander, Troy and King Arthur are good examples. Also I think that the release in May, especially since this one will kick of the summer box-office season has an IMMENSLY positive effect, much rather than neutral.

I would disagree ... obviously.

First off the month of may. XXX and HitchHikers were both in a very favorable release date, one that has made HUGE openers in the past (xmen comes to mind). But both failed to impress, with only one of them barely clawing past 20 million. Similarly with Kingdom of Heaven, it is the first REAL week of the summer, not an extension, but regardless, the principle is the same. If the movie is awful, it will falter. If it is not marketed efectivly, it will not make money. I think the summer has a trickle down effect, people all turn out to see a huge movie, see posters and times for other movies, and come back. Kingdom of Heaven at the very start (thanks to hitch and XXX failing to start it early) has no trickle down effect, and thus, must rely on itself which is why I put the release date as neutral. It won't be helped by the date unless it helps itself.

As for the Genre, the reason it is a positive despite the performance of movies like King Arthur and Alexander is because it has a built in fan base. Scott's name is enough to move this fan base to the theaters, if it can reach general audiences, and based on the trailer reaction it has, then it can be effective. I don't think this is a genre people look at and say "Oh not another epic war movie" I think they just demand a level of quality. You can not put out a historical epic the likes of a Catwoman and expect it to do well. That shouldn't be a factor with KOH so I see it as a positive because the built in fan base is there for it, something that is important considering it isnt a sequal.

And you guys are right on Last Samurai, oversight on my part.

As for the reviews ... ebert and roper gave it 2 thumbs up ... it will remain fresh, I would guess it will end around 65-70. I think my prediction will be dead on.

Exactly. If he likes it, when he grades epics so hard, then it all but assures the quality of the picture and thus a fresh rating.

Well, personally, i never expected that. When casting Bloom as your leading man it just CAN'T be another Gladiator.

A well done epic with huge, exciting battles, wide vistas, beatiful locations, grand sets, bloated speaches filled with pathos - that's what i'm hoping for...

There is a huge difference between the last weekend of April that has been tried by xXx2 and Volcano (both failed) and the first weekend of May which guarantees a more or less big opening. I don't remember the last time a movie opened on that weekend with under $30 million, but that certainly hasn't happened once since 1999. In Kingdom of Heaven's case the release date is pretty much one of the most important factors for its success.






But the track record has shown that historical epics just don't fare well with US-audiences. Troy was a disappointment to many, King Arthur and Alexander simply flopped in the States and even The ast Samurai made less than many expected.

Troy was a dissapointment to who!

The studio publicly said they wanted it to be 40+ opening in the US. It is (correct me if I am wrong) the best BO historical epic ever in terms of opening.

I think that movie did extremly well, and for Kingdom of Heaven to do close would be incredible. Troy made over 130 Million in the US, a very good number, and very good legs. Consider now that only 26% of its total gross came from the US. I don't think studio's expect huge openings from these films. I think 38 would be exceptional for KOH considering just how much it will make overseas.

I still think the release date alone won't help that much ... I mean yes it has had 50+ openers the past what ... 4 years? But they were all HUGE movies ... Spiderman, XMen had huge fan bases. Mummy returns, Van Helsing both big action movies. And ALL were not rated R. The last movie similar to this was Gladiator ... which opened on much less screens and managed 34 or so. I think there is less buzz for KOH and 35-45 is right about where it should land. The release date doesn't have as much to do with it, more like I said ... the built in fan bases and action movies ... not being rated R didn't hurt either. This movie simply CAN't Open that huge. It will 'dissapoint' for the release date when compared to recent years. It will live or die on it's own merits, the release date just won't help it. It sure won't hurt it however either.

As I said, I agree on the predictions themselves, just not on the reasoning. I am pretty certain that the average total gross prediction for Troy was well above $150-160 million. Keep in mind that Troy had more going for it than KOH (bigger cast, more early promotion, based on a more popular story).

As far as the release date goes, since 1999 every first weekend of May there has been a $30+ million opener. That is not coincidental.

Getting good reviews so far over here.

Paul Ross from News of the World gave it 4 out of 5
Shebah Ronnay from News of the World gave it 5 out of 5

You could be right. I cant imagine Van Helsing mustering over 30 million opening had it been released on a different date than X-mas season or summer season

If only I had predicted it doing that.

Well.

It is too bad.



I guess that turned to ring true.

I should have altered my prediction downward once the critics started trashing on the film.