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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Also, a note for all:
A lot of towns this year are having their trick or treating on Saturday, not Sunday.
Is anybody else's city doing this?
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| Wed Oct 27, 2004 5:31 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Not that I have heard of...
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| Wed Oct 27, 2004 6:04 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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So far it's mainly been religous towns and so kids don't have to worry about staying up too late.
But still, I think Shark Tale will have a drop over 40%, as its the only kid movie out.
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| Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:30 pm |
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Passionate Thug
Top Poster
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:01 am
Posts: 5261
Location: Wakanda
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Hard weekend to predict, but I think "The Grudge" will remain #1. It will have close to a 50% drop though.
Toss up for 2 and 3 between "Ray" or "Saw"
Shark Tale stays in the top 5
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| Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:44 pm |
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Tyler
Powered By Hate
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm
Posts: 7578
Location: Torrington, CT
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1) The Grudge-$22.7 million; -42%; Week 2
2) Saw-$15.9 million; Week 1
3) Ray-$12.4 million; Week 1
4) Shark Tale-$9.6 million; -33%; Week 5
5) Shall We Dance?-$6.3 million; -27.1%; Week 3
6) Friday Night Lights-$4.1 million; -41.4%; Week 4
7) Team America: World Police-$3.5 million; -44.9%; Week 3
8) Ladder 49-$3.3 million; -37.7%; Week 5
9) I Heart Huckabees-$2.5 million; -14.8%; Week 5
10) Surviving Christmas-$2.2 million; -50%; Week 2
11) Birth-$2.2 million; Week 1
_________________
It's my lucky crack pipe.
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 8:22 pm |
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Korrgan
problem?
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:52 am
Posts: 15515
Location: Bait Shop
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1. The Grudge - $20.5
2. Ray - $15.9
3. Saw - $12.1
4. Shark Tale - $10.6
5. Shall We Dance? - $7.6
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.0
7. Team America: World Police - $3.4
8. Ladder 49 - $3.2
9. Surviving Christmas - $2.5
10. I Heart Huckabees - $2.1
_________________
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 8:44 pm |
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Groucho
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:30 pm
Posts: 12096
Location: Stroudsburg, PA
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I think Ray is going to do a lot better than most people here are guessing.
Grudge: 21.1
Ray: 16.1
Saw: 15.5
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:14 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Final Predictions...
1. The Grudge- $21.5 million
2. Saw- $17.5 million
3. Ray- $14.0 million
4. Shark Tale- $10.0 million
5. Shall We Dance?- $6.1 million
6. Friday Night Lights- $4.0 million
7. Team America: World Police- $3.3 million
8. I Heart Huckabees- $2.3 million
9. Birth- $2.2 million
10. Sideways- $.410 million
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 11:10 pm |
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Wildbill
Affiliate
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:41 am
Posts: 121
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The Grudge - 18.0 -54%
Ray - 17.0
Saw - 15.0
Shark Tale - 8.7 -39%
Shall We Dance - 5.8 -33%
Friday Night Lights - 4.2 -39%
Team America - 3.3 -48%
Ladder 49 - 3.3 -37%
I Heart Huckabees - 2.1 -28%
Surving Christmas - 2.0 -55%
Birth - 1.3
Also, new site design. Comments much welcomed.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:37 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Final predictions (Oct 29-31):
1. The Grudge- $20.0
2. Ray- $17.0
3. Saw- $15.0
4. Shark Tale- $9.6
5. Shall We Dance?- $6.0
6. Friday Night Lights- $4.6
7. Team America: World Police- $3.9
8. Ladder 49 - $3.6
9. Surviving Christmas - $2.6
9. I Heart Huckabees- $2.2
9. Birth- $2.0
- Sideways- $0.608
Don't see why people are predicting low for Ray. It has the screens and big advance buzz to have a very high PTA.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 3:56 am |
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Wildbill
Affiliate
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:41 am
Posts: 121
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xiayun wrote: Final predictions (Oct 29-31):
2. Ray- $17.0
3. Saw- $15.0 Nice predictions xiayun.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:08 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Wildbill wrote: xiayun wrote: Final predictions (Oct 29-31):
2. Ray- $17.0
3. Saw- $15.0 Nice predictions xiayun.  Look like I'm going high on all holdovers.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:13 am |
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Ragnarok
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 3:35 pm
Posts: 131
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Final predictions (Oct 29-31):
1. Ray- $18.8 mil (This has been getting a lot of buzz especially for Fox's performance and the urban audience haven't had a hit for quite some time now. )
2. The Grudge- $18.7 mil (-52%)
3. Saw- $9.4 mil (It's rated R and might be too violent for some. Its pta should be in the Cabin Fever/ Open Water area.)
4. Shark Tale- $8.7 mil (-39%, Trick or treating might cause a larger than normal drop.)
5. Shall We Dance?- $5.8 mil (-32%, Finding Neverland sneaks might help it a bit.)
6. Friday Night Lights- $4.4 mil (-37%)
7. Team America: World Police- $3.8 mil (-41%)
8. Ladder 49 - $3.5 mil (-34%)
9. Surviving Christmas - $2.5 mil (-44%, midweek numbers aren't bad)
10. I Heart Huckabees- $2 mil (-31%)
11. Birth- $1.7 mil (just a guess)
**Sideways- $0.555
Last edited by Ragnarok on Fri Oct 29, 2004 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 7:43 am |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 14557
Location: Everywhere
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The Grudge $21.325
Ray $15.430
Shark Tale $9.386
Saw $6.870
Shall We Dance? $5.429
Friday Night Lights $4.141
Team America: World Police $3.437
Birth $2.050
I Heart Huckabees $2.003
Sideways $0.445
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 7:49 am |
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Anonymous
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 Derby predictions... The Grudge 18,70
Saw 13,20
Ray 9,70
Shark Tale 8,20
Shall We Dance 6,30
Friday Night Lights 4,00
Team America 3,70
Ladder 49 3,00
Surviving Christmas 2,30
I Heart Huckabees 2,20
Birth 2,00
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 8:52 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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MY FINAL PREDICTIONS:
1. The Grudge- $20.2 million
2. Ray- $16.4 million
3. Saw- $15.6 million
4. Shark Tale- $8.6 million
5. Shall We Dance?- $7.3 milllion
6. Friday Night Lights- $4.6 milllion
7. Team America: World Police- $3.6 milllion
8. Ladder 49 - $3.4 milllion
9. I Heart Huckabees- $2.3 million
10. Surviving Christmas - $2.1 million
11. Birth - $1.7 milllion
- Sideways - $0.415 milllion
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:16 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm
Posts: 11838
Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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Here are my final predictions (what do think of these Ragnarok?)
1. The Grudge - 19.1 (Halloween will help this one).
2. Ray - 16.3 (Great Buzz, Urban appeal, Rave Reviews, but too long).
3. Saw - 12.1 (Trailer looks creepy, so it could go above such horror movies like Cabin Fever and Open Water, and halloween will help too.)
4. Shark Tale - 9.0 (Normal drop, but Sunday will kill it a bit).
5. Shall We Dance - 6.1 (Good midweek, good expansion too).
6. Friday Night Lights - 4.4
7. Team Amercia - 3.4 (Sunday will hurt it a bit).
8. Ladder 49 - 3.3
9. Surviving Christmas - 2.2 (Sunday will kill it majorly).
10. Birth - 2.2 (Seriously, I don't know where this will go).
11. I Heat Huckabees - 2.0
**Sideways - 0.461
Let's see how these will do.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:47 pm |
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OSHO
Speed Racer
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 12:32 am
Posts: 166
Location: Russia , Moscow
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My final predictions 1) GRUDGE-20.4 5)SHALL WE DANCE - 5.7 7) LADDER - 3.3 9) CHRISTMAS - 2.3 10) I HEART RAGNAROK - 2.3
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 2:54 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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With Thursday numbers out, I've made some more detailed holdover predictions just for fun:
Friday Night Lights - $4.1 , Friday - $1.52 (+230%), Saturday - $1.82 (+20%), Sunday - $0.77 (-58%)
Ladder 49 - $3.6 , Friday - $1.16 (+200%), Saturday - $1.67 (+45%), Sunday - $0.79 (-53%)
Team America - $3.4 , Friday - $1.20 (+140%), Saturday - $1.45 (+20%), Sunday - $0.72 (-50%)
The Grudge - $21.5 , Friday - $6.53 (+170%), Saturday - $8.82 (+35%), Sunday - $6.17 (-30%)
Shall We Dance - $6.7 , Friday - $2.19 (+166%), Saturday - $3.02 (+38%), Sunday - $1.51 (-50%)
Shark Tale - $8.0 , Friday - $2.37 (+260%), Saturday - $4.03 (+70%), Sunday - $1.61 (-60%)
Surviving Christmas - $2.2 , Friday - $0.70 (+150%), Saturday - $1.01 (+45%), Sunday - $0.50 (-50%)
Notables are Shark Tale, which drops a little more, and Shall We Dance, which will have a great hold.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:07 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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micasey, I think you're overpredicting the Sunday drops. They aren't going to be that bad.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:11 pm |
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MGKC
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Well, I'm sure Friday Night Lights will drop that much because it has been dropping 50% on Sundays anyway. Hopefully the others won't drop that bad like you said.
But Shark Tale, I think, will drop 55%+. There isn't really a kid movie to compare it to on that daily chart of Halloween Sunday on page 1.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:15 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Final Predictions
1. The Grudge - $21.0 million
2. Ray - $16.8 million
3. Saw - $14.5 million
4. Shark Tale - $8.9 million
5. Shall We Dance? - $6.0 million
6. Friday Night Lights - $4.5 million
7. Team America: World Police - $3.7 million
8. Ladder 49 - $3.2 million
9. Birth - $2.1 million
10. Surviving Christmas - $2.1 million
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 5:30 pm |
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Impact
Kiera Knightly is my lady!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:18 pm
Posts: 8773
Location: New Mexico
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well while i put grudge on number one on my predicts, i think ray may do better, when i put 12 million for ray i was thinking it was on 1500 theaters (the same thing happen to me for hero, i put 11 million thinking it was on 800 theaters)
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 9:23 pm |
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DP07
Homo Dperious
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 14557
Location: Everywhere
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Impact wrote: well while i put grudge on number one on my predicts, i think ray may do better, when i put 12 million for ray i was thinking it was on 1500 theaters (the same thing happen to me for hero, i put 11 million thinking it was on 800 theaters) I agree, it has a great chance at #1.
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| Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:16 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Well, after being at the movies tonight, do not be surprised if The Grudge, Ray and Saw all make north of $20M this weekend.
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| Sat Oct 30, 2004 12:12 am |
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