Probably Thursday.

And note that Suzume climbed twelve spots from #42 to #30 All-Time over the past 8 days based on my estimates.

Gonna go ahead and post this since we'll need to wait until late Wednesday for actuals due to the holidays. I'll repost/update when the actual becomes available then.

Biggest Twenty-Second Weekends (2000-):

¥174.1 million ($1.5 million), +02%, ¥23.56 billion ($223.8 million) - Your Name. (2016)
__________
¥97.8 million ($0.9 million), -15%, ¥28.58 billion ($235.2 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥86.8 million ($0.8 million), -47%, ¥38.61 billion ($369.5 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
__________
¥39.0 million ($0.3 million), +60%, ¥18.89 billion ($137.5 million) - One Piece Film Red (2022) *Estimate*
¥29.4 million ($0.3 million), -38%, ¥12.83 billion ($115.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥27.3 million ($0.2 million), -26%, ¥13.30 billion ($99.1 million) - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
¥26.3 million ($0.2 million), -30%, ¥19.01 billion ($185.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥13.5 million ($0.1 million), -48%, ¥25.36 billion ($248.5 million) - Frozen (2014)

SxF isn't from the manga no - don't think it's known if it'll be canon to the series but I would work off the assumption that it won't be (think SxF as a franchise can work fairly well with conan-like films). Though will say its tv metrics (tv ratings live+recording combined) are stronger than JJK's ever were, and (a distant) second to only KnY as far as anime is concerned right now, and it's very strong in streaming as well, so wouldn't be shocked if it plays similarly to a conan film even without the added draw of canon material.

Would put it as a candidate for 10b, but not an expectation, mostly because it's hard to eyeball this kind of non-canon film to begin with - a lot also depends on what kinda draw they can give the film on its own and we have seen nothing (something like OP Red was able to bank huge on canonbaiting with Shanks but also in smash-hit anime-only character Uta, which has since been added to...everything OP, even manga covers and LCPs).

Could also enjoy a very solid release date if it's out, say, december, since that season feels like it's going to be fairly light this year - don't think much is coming from hollywood that Japan cares about at all and even on the jp side not sure there's anything there right now.

Maybe revisit this when we know more about the film I guess.


Yeah if TLM can't make 5b it's time for Disney to give the rights to Toho or something.

What, no! Toho need a real competition, even if it's from big international company. Otherwise Toho would monopolized Japan's cinema, which is very bad for consumers.
And we'll never know how much Toho deduct as a distributor, it's not like Toho is doing this for free, right?
Disney might enjoy making 50% less but receiving 100% of its revenue rather than has someone else making 100% and receiving only 50% of that.

Their biggest problem is that I don't know if they're even generating any profit these past 3 years. I highly doubt they did in 2020 or 2021 (2021 was somehow even worse for them).

Theaters take 50% of the cut already in Japan, and most Disney films are struggling to even break ¥1 billion (not even $10 million). Only... 6 of their films have done so in 3 years and just barely... And before Avatar 2, Dr. Strange 2 was the only film among them to even reach ¥2 billion (¥2.16 billion, just over $16 million).

So, they'd get ~¥1.08 billion (~$8 million) from Dr. Strange 2, but how much of that goes to marketing, dub cast, etc.? For the few films that are only doing ¥1-1.5 billion, and most not even that, they might be in the red. Anything that grosses under ¥1 billion is losing money almost for certain (we call it the "commercial success" mark), and all their other ¥1 billion+ earners are between ¥1-1.35 billion. That's an incredibly narrow profit margin if they're turning one at all.

And Avatar 2 isn't nearly big enough (it's not even big at all) to help recover what they've likely lost these past three years. At most, I think they'll make around ¥2 billion ($16/17 million) from Avatar 2 before subtracting all the extra costs.

Can Suzume outdo Weathering & Slam dunk hit 10b?

Suzume is going to be close, possibly coming down to the very end of its run (probably in late March/April) before we know. I think it's too early to say despite being nearly two months into its release. I have it *likely* hitting ¥12 billion come next Monday, the end of the New Year holidays. If that happens... I think it's unlikely to reach the ¥14.2 billion needed to beat Weathering With You, but it'll get quit close (within ¥1 billion). But if it's closer to ¥12.5 billion come next Monday, it's probably a coin-toss, if not slightly likely to happen since it'd get so close, Toho would probably push it there.

Slam Dunk is unlikely to hit ¥10 billion. Looks on track for ~¥8.5-9 billion to me. ¥8.56 billion is a good goal to aim for as that'll put it above Rookies, making it the 4th biggest Weekly Shonen Jump movie ever. I am a *little* surprised there hasn't been any giveaways here as they've been all the rage in recent years. It's had fairly good legs, so they could have taken advantage of the fanbase to push it a decent bit higher, IMO. Now, ¥8.5/9 billion is still incredible, not arguing it's not. But there *might* have been an opening here to aim for ¥10 billion. But we'll see! They went crazy very late in Evangelion 3.0+1.0's run to get it to ¥10 billion when it looked almost certain settle around ¥9 billion.

New Year Holiday Period Daily Estimates (12/26-01/09)

Mon (12/26):
¥105 million ($790,000), +26%, ¥5.172 billion ($38.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 24)
¥104 million ($780,000), +97%, ¥10.118 billion ($73.0 million), Suzume (Day 46)
¥78 million ($585,000), -23%, ¥1.522 billion ($11.7 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 11)
¥8 million ($60,000), +112%, ¥18.79 billion ($136.7 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 143)

Tues (12/27):
¥112 million ($840,000), +45%, ¥5.284 billion ($39.3 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 25)
¥105 million ($790,000), +116%, ¥10.223 billion ($73.8 million), Suzume (Day 47)
¥80 million ($600,000), -23%, ¥1.602 billion ($12.9 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 12)
¥9 million ($65,000), +148%, ¥18.80 billion ($136.8 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 144)

Wed. (12/28):
¥190 million ($1.44 million), +66%, ¥5.474 billion ($40.7 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 26)
¥159 million ($1.20 million), +138%, ¥10.382 billion ($75.0 million), Suzume (Day 48)
¥115 million ($870,000), -08%, ¥1.717 billion ($13.8 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 13)
¥14 million ($105,000), +183%, ¥18.81 billion ($136.9 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 145)

Thur. (12/29):
¥232 million ($1.77 million), +226%, ¥5.706 billion ($42.5 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 27)
¥181 million ($1.38 million), +255%, ¥10.563 billion ($76.4 million), Suzume (Day 49)
¥143 million ($1.09 million), +60%, ¥1.860 billion ($14.9 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 14)
¥18 million ($135,000), +462%, ¥18.83 billion ($137.0 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 146)

Fri. (12/30):
¥250 million ($1.91 million), +199%, ¥5.956 billion ($44.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 28)
¥180 million ($1.37 million), +176%, ¥10.743 billion ($77.8 million), Suzume (Day 50)
¥145 million ($1.10 million), +88%, ¥2.005 billion ($16.0 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 15)
¥20 million ($150,000), +436%, ¥18.85 billion ($137.2 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 147)

Weekend (12/31-01/01):
¥388 million ($2.96 million), -16%, ¥6.344 billion ($47.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 30)
¥256 million ($1.95 million), -25%, ¥2.261 billion ($18.0 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 17)
¥235 million ($1.79 million), -41%, ¥10.978 billion ($79.6 million), Suzume (Day 52)
¥39 million ($295,000), +60%, ¥18.89 billion ($137.5 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 149)

Mon. (01/02):
¥227 million ($1.74 million), +117%, ¥6.581 billion ($49.1 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 31)
¥154 million ($1.18 million), +98%, ¥2.415 billion ($19.1 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 18)
¥150 million ($1.15 million), +45%, ¥11.128 billion ($80.7 million), Suzume (Day 53)
¥26 million ($200,000), +247%, ¥18.92 billion ($137.7 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 150)

Tues. (01/03):
¥237 million ($1.81 million), +112%, ¥6.818 billion ($50.9 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 32)
¥179 million ($1.37 million), +71%, ¥11.307 billion ($82.1 million), Suzume (Day 54)
¥165 million ($1.26 million), +108%, ¥2.580 billion ($20.4 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 19)
¥28 million ($215,000), +225%, ¥18.95 billion ($137.9 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 151)

% changes vs same day/weekend last week.

Note: Disney reported a lower total as of Sunday than I estimated for Avatar 2 ($16.7m vs $18m), so its numbers may be overestimated. Since Monday and Tuesday are holidays, we'll need to wait until Wednesday for anything official.

Disney reported $1.3M Monday. Total - $18M.

I hope Slam Dunk can get to 10 billion. 2023 didn't seem to have any surefire 10 billion film, though maybe the Conan movie will finally get there.

How do you live? is a pretty safe 10b bet.

I forgot that it's releasing this year :v
But yeah, considering it's Miyazaki its very unlikely it misses 10 billion unless something goes terribly wrong

Generally speaking I'd agree with the point that this year feels relatively low on 10b candidates, though at the same time if there's a market where some random hit can pop up out of nowhere it is probably Japan. Not like anyone would bet on OP Red and TGM to hit that mark this year, and opinions overall would probably be fairly mixed for JJK as well before release - the only "safe" bet for 10b this year was probably Suzume.

So yeah, even though I'm only confident on "How do you live?", I wouldn't exactly exclude something else will pop off out of nowhere and get up there.

According to kogyotsushin all time list TGM is actually still running and apparently its gross is now ¥13.51 Billion and luckily there is no annoying ¥13.50 Billion tie anymore.

Perfect! Just enough locations kept it into the New Year to break that 4-way tie!

Suzume is also up to ¥11.35 billion vs the ¥11.31 billion I estimated, and One Piece matches the ¥18.95 billion, so, overall, estimates for the long week and a half so far look pretty accurate!

New Year Holiday Period Daily Estimates (12/26-01/09)

Mon (12/26):
¥105 million ($790,000), +26%, ¥5.172 billion ($38.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 24)
¥104 million ($780,000), +97%, ¥10.118 billion ($73.0 million), Suzume (Day 46)
¥78 million ($585,000), -23%, ¥1.522 billion ($11.7 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 11)
¥8 million ($60,000), +112%, ¥18.79 billion ($136.7 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 143)

Tues (12/27):
¥112 million ($840,000), +45%, ¥5.284 billion ($39.3 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 25)
¥105 million ($790,000), +116%, ¥10.223 billion ($73.8 million), Suzume (Day 47)
¥80 million ($600,000), -23%, ¥1.602 billion ($12.3 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 12)
¥9 million ($65,000), +148%, ¥18.80 billion ($136.8 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 144)

Wed. (12/28):
¥190 million ($1.44 million), +66%, ¥5.474 billion ($40.7 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 26)
¥159 million ($1.20 million), +138%, ¥10.382 billion ($75.0 million), Suzume (Day 48)
¥115 million ($870,000), -08%, ¥1.717 billion ($13.1 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 13)
¥14 million ($105,000), +183%, ¥18.81 billion ($136.9 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 145)

Thur. (12/29):
¥232 million ($1.77 million), +226%, ¥5.706 billion ($42.5 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 27)
¥181 million ($1.38 million), +255%, ¥10.563 billion ($76.4 million), Suzume (Day 49)
¥143 million ($1.09 million), +60%, ¥1.860 billion ($14.2 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 14)
¥18 million ($135,000), +462%, ¥18.83 billion ($137.0 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 146)

Fri. (12/30):
¥250 million ($1.91 million), +199%, ¥5.956 billion ($44.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 28)
¥180 million ($1.37 million), +176%, ¥10.743 billion ($77.8 million), Suzume (Day 50)
¥145 million ($1.10 million), +88%, ¥2.005 billion ($15.3 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 15)
¥20 million ($150,000), +436%, ¥18.85 billion ($137.2 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 147)

Weekend (12/31-01/01):
¥388 million ($2.96 million), -16%, ¥6.344 billion ($47.4 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 30)
¥256 million ($1.95 million), -25%, ¥2.261 billion ($17.3 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 17)
¥235 million ($1.79 million), -41%, ¥10.978 billion ($79.6 million), Suzume (Day 52)
¥39 million ($295,000), +60%, ¥18.89 billion ($137.5 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 149)

Mon. (01/02):
¥227 million ($1.74 million), +117%, ¥6.581 billion ($49.1 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 31)
¥154 million ($1.18 million), +98%, ¥2.415 billion ($18.5 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 18)
¥150 million ($1.15 million), +45%, ¥11.128 billion ($80.7 million), Suzume (Day 53)
¥26 million ($200,000), +247%, ¥18.92 billion ($137.7 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 150)

Tues. (01/03):
¥237 million ($1.81 million), +112%, ¥6.818 billion ($50.9 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 32)
¥179 million ($1.37 million), +71%, ¥11.307 billion ($82.1 million), Suzume (Day 54)
¥165 million ($1.26 million), +108%, ¥2.580 billion ($19.8 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 19)
¥28 million ($215,000), +225%, ¥18.95 billion ($137.9 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 151)

Wed. (01/04):
¥209 million ($1.58 million), +11%, ¥7.027 billion ($52.5 million), The First Slam Dunk (Day 33)
¥168 million ($1.27 million), +05%, ¥11.518 billion ($83.7 million), Suzume (Day 55)
¥131 million ($990,000), +14%, ¥2.711 billion ($20.8 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Day 20)
¥27 million ($205,000), +87%, ¥18.98 billion ($138.1 million), One Piece Film Red (Day 152)

% changes vs same day/weekend last week.

NOTE: Suzume's total as of Tuesday was released, so its estimated total for Wednesday reflects this update. One Piece's total as of Tuesday also came in, which matched the estimated Tuesday total, so no change there.

NOTE 2: Disney has reported a lower total for Avatar 2 than estimated, so its total may come in lower than estimated above when numbers come in.

We should get most numbers later today.

It is quite amazing that TGM is still in theaters in Japan despite being available on HV and despite cinemas usually drop movies altogether once they are available on HV. I am guessing this is a push to surpass The Last Samurai as the highest grossing Tom Cruise movie. Once Oscars nomination are in and maybe this wins the best picture there, then it could surpass Last Samurai?

It's barely in theaters, probably a handful to low double-digits. I don't know the count since tracking ended a couple weeks ago, and the site I used for exact counts of any and all films in theaters shut down a year or two ago, but it only added ~¥10 million (~$75,000) from December 18th - January 3rd. It needs ¥191 million more to surpass The Last Samurai, which isn't possible on its own.

Now... if it sweeps the Oscars, maybe Toho can give it an expansion / rerelease in the Spring to aim for that goal.

Disney reported $1.3M Tuesday - Total - $19.3M

Through out 2022, TOP GUN was the run I really enjoyed to track. And One Piece was the biggest surprise. I was expecting ¥8B and then it made more than ¥11B-¥12B. BTW, how far can we go for One Piece - ¥20B possible?

This is a general question but how do distribution rights work? For TGM does Toho get 75% of total revenue? 50% the general theater cut and 25% distribution? So Paramount only gets 25% out of theaters and/or bd sales etc?

Weekend Actuals (12/31-01/01)
01 (01) ¥362,069,750 ($2.77 million), -22%, ¥6,274,474,330 ($46.9 million), The First Slam Dunk (Toei) WK5
02 (02) ¥244,893,650 ($1.87 million), -38%, ¥10,987,653,100 ($79.7 million), Suzume (Toho) WK8
03 (03) ¥244,508,450 ($1.87 million), -28%, ¥2,233,813,570 ($17.1 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney) WK3
04 (05) ¥x89,219,530 ($681,000), -42%, ¥1,376,067,580 ($10.5 million), Dr. Coto's Clinic (Toho) WK3
05 (07) ¥x69,287,540 ($529,000), -36%, ¥1,378,550,940 ($10.5 million), Fragments of the Last Will (Toho) WK3
06 (06) ¥x52,687,780 ($402,000), -53%, ¥392,196,110 ($3.0 million), Lonely Castle in the Mirror (Shochiku) WK2
07 (NA) ¥x40,522,760 ($309,000), +61%, ¥18,892,667,510 ($137.5 million), One Piece Film Red (Toei) WK22
08 (04) ¥x39,316,820 ($300,000), -76%, ¥442,742,720 ($3.3 million), Black Night Parade (Shochiku) WK2
09 (08) ¥x29,005,980 ($222,000), -71%, ¥271,446,320 ($2.1 million), Kamen Rider Geats Revice: Battle Royale (Toei) WK2
10 (10) ¥x24,196,700 ($185,000), -48%, ¥1,241,893,170 ($9.3 million), That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Scarlet Bond (Bandai Namco) WK6

Hey, look what's back!

You may see some of these drops are large for New Year, and some certainly are, but New Year's Eve/New Year's are big in Japan and poor days for the box-office as people are out doing other things. So when they land on the weekend, and both did this year, it's not good. The good news, as you can see from the daily estimates, the weekdays more than make up for the weekend this time of year. Also, we'll likely see increases across the board this upcoming weekend.

And Note: These totals are as of Sunday. Some totals are being reported as of Tuesday, so don't get confused. I'm going to hold off on updating the 2022/2023 Box Office Charts until tomorrow so more totals as of Tuesday become available.

¥20 billion still seems out of reach for One Piece, but I won't rule it out until its run ends on January 29th (its announced end date). Toei will probably do some farewell giveaway event over the final weekend.



I'll be honest, I'm not really sure. And also note that Toho releases Universal and Paramount films through their subsidiary distributors (Toho-Towa and Towa Pictures), so I'm guessing they get part of the cut too.

Theaters get 50% no matter what. And Toho also owns Toho Cinemas, the busiest theater chain, so they also get a 50% percentage share of what films make at their theaters too. And if it's their own releases (or through their subsidiary distributors), then it's 100%.

25% sounds like a fair educated guess for Paramount and Universal for their films. But note... that doesn't sound like much, but looking at what's happening to Disney, it's probably more than they'd be making if they hadn't sold their distribution rights to Toho. Most Paramount and Universal films have been performing very well since 2020 as they're unaffected by going to streaming since they don't go to streaming while still in theaters under Toho.

Does someone have the exact numbers of admissions of Titanic, AEG, Avatar 1, Infinity war and NWH with all the re-release taken into account ?