$88 million for five days would be a good figure. I'll have to adjust my predictions, though.

With that, I think it will probably finish with around $225 million, assuming word-of-mouth is as good as I'm expecting. If it burns off enough demand on Wednesday and Thursday, it may even drop under 50% against Pirates in week two.

lol bad stand........too gay.

for supes n pirates whose tv campaigns havent even started, 88 million and 104 million for those 2 is fine. both have nowhere to go but up. I was hoping for 90 million but 88 is acceptable. tracking this early really has no base anyways i said yestersay. it usually of fon these blockbusters and these 88 and 104 figrues are basicaly just guesses cuase the tv ad campaigns are what makes the real buzz for blockbusters like these, and they have not started for either of the movies. unless the tv ads never really come ala batman begins, theres now way t his opens under 100- million 5 day, and no way pirates 2 opens under 120 million 3 day.

for the record im not spinning this, i was hoping for atleast 90 million, but 88 is obviously acceptable. I said exactly what i just said yesterday.

Yeah, but we finally know whether Supes spits or swallows.

re: the tracking. To be honest, 88 is slightly higher than I expected. Despite that, they're a long way from being out of the woods even with that figure. With good WOM - they're talking about 220-230 max. Without going into the budget issues, that's obviously a poor ROI.

I still feel my bet of -200 is reasonably safe. Fair/poor WOM for Supes + Excellent/Good WOM for POTC2 could be a disaster of epic propotions.

How you can say that the TV campaign hasn't begun blows my mind. It really, really does.

And, for the record, tracking had King Kong around $85 million 5-day initially and people were like, "huh? that must be underpredicted." So, it's not exactly a "guess" as you make it seem.

Its not a guess, its an educated guess. they are probably looking release date, character popularity, where the trailers are with, ect.

the tv campaign has not hit full swing, why would it? the film is 16 days away. itll be starting soon, but not yet.

by start I mean itll reach the point when you cant watch tv without seeing an ad for something super rerlated-wether it be duracell pepsi burger king commercials or, ell, maybe w.b. can clean u ptheir act and release some of their *own* tv spots.

but theres nothing to measure yet.

Didnt excel say that earlier few weeks ago that WB was already bombarding us with so many different commercials yet here we are 16 days before the movie is about to release that SR tv campaign hasnt started? Now thats spinning or what you call a Plan B

I remember those days... lol. I'm sure as soon as Superman's Wednesday numbers come in we'll start hearing Kong-esque excuses like "People are taking finals!" or "People are Christmas shopping!"

Zingling - off-topic - but I noticed you have "Pulse" on your Most Anticipated. Did you see the original?

excel, that's just plain absurd and a real twist on the number.



Nope.

Check it out, it gets better each time I see it. Hopefully the remake won't be that bad.

do you guys read??

brett-ive been saying theres spot with nba finals and world cup. in most posts ive been saying "the tv ad blitz wont really begin till the 16th or so" cause its flat out too early. i dont want tv spots everywhere yet cause it means in 2 weeks when the movie is actually coming out theyd have burnt of a ton of steam.

zing-twist on the number? ughh....i said it yesterday just so people wouldnt say stuff to me like that...


that said, im going to say RIGHT NOW that when the tracking comes out on monday the 26th, it will be right around 100 million. so when i release my predicts for the 5 day which wil be higher then 100 million, an dif trackin comes in under them and i say thats fine, i dont want you saying im trying to "twist" the number.

all i say is to be a lock for 250 million, superman needs 100 5 day. it it gets 90 million 5 day itll probably get 250, and it gets 80 then probably NOT. But if it opens to 100 million 5 day and the wom is as good as the reviews, itll break 250 million and beyond.

excel, tracking measures awareness. It's not an educated guess -- they ask people if they've heard of the film and, if so, if they're going to see it.

Um its not what you said from time to time



Now that tracking has come up lower than you are expecting, you now come up with something about "marketting has not begun" when you said that in June, that merchandising will hit AND you used example of cereal boxes to justify your reason

the MARKETIGN blitz- posters trailers toys merchandise ty spots with bgi shows-has hit. the final part of the marketing campaign is always the tv spot blitz which hasnt hit yt;. the film is 16 days away. itd be ridiculous to try stretch it out over that long of a period.


and supermans buzz IS swelling. read the articles or watch the news about it.


but again i can see how this woulod od under 100 million 5 day. io simply cant. ti has soooo much more going for it-box office wise-then war of the worlds did, and that did 100 million and was considered dissapointing.

Actually, $100 million for WOTW was amazing. Only its legs and total were disappointing.

How do you guys find out these tracking numbers? And how would I explain what "tracking" is to someone who has no clue? (aka I get the context of it, but don't know a definitive definition)

Joy

I think WB has gone NUTS. They are marketing this movie BADLY.

It looks like he just took Alka Seltzer.

You know, I was thinking about this: Top selling Superman book for the month of March 06 was 110,600 copies. Even if every single one of them went to see Superman opening weekend that's chump change.

If I were a Superman fan, I'd but pointing towards Smallville's ratings (6.3 million viewers was the season high) to pump myself up. Now if all 6.3 million people paid $9.00 bucks a ticket opening weekend...

Batman has always been scheduled for 2008

Superman Returns is #1 on Moviefone, if that hasn't already been reported.

WHY DAMN
Im hiking my prediction to 100 3 day and 140 5 day total!
Moviefone is the king

Aren't they owned by AOL/Time Warner? BTW, rounding out the top five are two more blockbusters: An Inconvenient Truth and A Prairie Home Companion.

is movie fone agood tracker for movies 3 weeks out?