Can't wait for GODlan's new Godman film: The God Knight Rises

From Ray Subers at BOM: Even with this IMAX boost, it may be tough to top The Avengers's record debut ($207.4 million) or its overall haul (on track for at least $620 million). But initial tracking suggests that the movie will debut higher than its predecessor ($158.4 million), and if it turns out to be a worthy follow-up, look out.

The man don't know shit, TA got no chance.

The man is blind and deaf, I bet he hasnt bought his IMAX ticket yet

12,000 x 25 (price of 2D trilogy ticket) = 300,000
11,000 x 40 (price of IMAX trilogy ticket) = 440,000
100,000+ x 10 (est) = 1,000,000+

1,740,000+ in the bank, with 3 weeks out. From one theater chain.

The Dark Knight Rises will break all records opening weekend. For midnight, OD, Sat/Sun, OW... And pretty much just an annihilation of records after that up until it easily passes Titanic and The Avengers domestically.

Well yeah if he's blind and deaf, there's not much point in buying an IMAX ticket, or any other ticket.

Is there something wrong with that?

Ok, and what is the point of this picture?

HOT PIC!

OMG 19 FUCKING DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Though this is not the club but I see a big uptick in OS total as well this time and given that TDK was quite big in 2008 and Inception was bigger this could do great. Not only that this is being sold as a hugely action vehicle which could mean a bigger opening in Asian markets IMO.

No 3D = fucked.

What does that mean?

All numbers refer to Overseas (OS) gross

Transformers/Twilight

2007 Transformers -$390.5m
2009 Transformers: ROTF-$434.2m (+11.1%)

2008 Twilight-$199.8m
2009 New Moon-$413.2m (+107%)

These movies are like McDonald’s serving the masses something they craved, but not necessarily something that satisfied most of their needs. Equivalent to Big Macs they were something for the general audience to feed on to get their fix for a specific type of entertainment, but they were not necessarily well liked (although TF1 was close), and the second film was not as well received as the first. Even so, without putting out a high quality product and without 3D, the film were able to show sizable growth OS. Since both series have declined in quality and TF introduced 3D, I don’t see the utility to compare the rest of the films in either series or in the other series I will introduce.

Shrek/POTC

2001 Shrek-$216.7m
2004 Shrek 2-$478.6m (+121%)
2007 Shrek 3-$476.2m (-00.5%)

2003 POTC: COTBP $348.9m
2006 POTC: DMC $642.9m (+84.3%)
2007 POTC: AWE $654m (+1.7%)

Now the first films for these series were very well received and were big hits on DVD. Their second film experienced huge growth.
When the third film in each series was released they had to deal with each other and SM 3, so that hurt some of their potential growth. Also, the second and third films for both series got progressively worse. Lastly, AWE was out less than a year after DMC and somewhat earlier in the year, so that most likely depressed its overseas total a bit.

Spider-Man

2002 SM-$418.0m
2004 SM 2-$410.2m (-01.9%)
2007 SM 3-$554.3m (35.1%)

The Spider-Man series had attributes like both previous groups. The first movie kind of satisfied a craving (a super-hero after 9/11), and the film was quite good but not quite as loved as the original Shrek and POTC films. It is very similar to TF 1 in many ways. However, the second film is the only one out of all these series that actually was seen as an improvement over the original by most moviegoers. So, even though the second film actually decreased overseas, which I think had more to do with a different release date than anything else, it paved the way for the third film to have a very big increase even though that film was seen as the worst of the series.

Star Wars

1983 ROTJ-$165.8m
1999 TPM-$552.5m (234%)
2002 AOTC-$338.7m (-38.7%)
2005 ROTS-$468.5m (+38.3%)

Now, the latest Star Wars trilogy is not a great series to draw too many conclusions from, because Lucas was able to get some concessions from theater owners when TPM came out that inflated its gross to a slight degree. However, the first movie was the first movie in 16 years to a beloved trilogy and it experienced amazing growth from the previous film. TPM was not as well liked as the OT films and AOTC suffered a huge decline, because of it. However, it was seen by most as an improvement over the previous film, and with the ending of the new trilogy, the third film was able to recover 60% of the gross lost between TPM and AOTC.

LOTR

The closest thing we have had to Nolan’s Batman trilogy would be the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Spider-Man would be close due to the massive popularity and the first two movies did not suffer a decline in quality. However, I don’t think it was as well liked as either of the LOTR or Batman series, the third film dropped significantly in quality, and the series lost domestic audience share for each successive movie. The LOTR films increased both domestically and overseas, even when adjusted for inflation with all three films which no blockbuster trilogy has been able to accomplish. The first two films were highly regarded and the third film is considered the best or at least comparable in quality to the first two films.

2001 LOTR:FOTR-$556m
2002 LOTR:TTT-$583.5m (4.9%)
2003 LOTR:ROTK-$742.1m (27.2%)

The first film opened huge overseas, the second film was able to better it in terms of American $ gross. Now perhaps exchange rates and other factors disguised an actual decrease or a better increase. However, the third film achieved real growth over the first two films that was not only caused by other factors only. The great thing about this series is that it opened on almost the same date every year. You could adjust for inflation and see actual growth or loss of audience. The film had 33.4% growth over two years in the overseas market. It had an annual increase of 15.5% over those two years. I don’t know how much the Oscar win boosted ROTK, but the film still had substantial growth without it.

Nolan’s Batman

2005 BB-$160.2m
2008 TDK-$468.6m (+192%)
2010 Inception-$533m (+13.7%)
2012 TDKR-????$686.1-$783.1m (between 10-13.7% annual increase)???

Reasons why TDKR will increase significantly over TDK...

Now, even though the LOTR series is the best match of any trilogy, it is not perfect. BB was well received on the level of the first Shrek, POTC or SM2, TDK was on a higher level comparable with ROTK.

TDK had to deal with Mamma Mia ($465.7m) which did almost as much as TDK overseas. Granted, MM opened on different dates than TDK in many markets, but in the UK, Australia, and others they opened right after each other. TDKR will only have to deal with TASM after it has been playing in most countries for two to three weeks. Now, I have no idea how much TASM will eventually gross OS, but I doubt it is $465m after TDKR opens. I think this lack of competition will give TDKR a small boost in its ability to increase TDK’s OS total.

TDK has roughly 30% more user ratings from non-US IMDB voters than FOTR or ROTK, while BB had 30% less. POTC: COTBP (roughly a little more than BB) has 40% more than POTC: DMC and POTC: AWE. The Shrek series followed the exact same pattern, although Shrek 1 had a smaller vote total than BB and COTB. None of these series or HP had increases from the first to the second film. All the rest had drop offs of 40% or more except for Star Wars and LOTR which had roughly 10% declines, and SM had 21%. ROTS was the only movie that was relatively even with the first movie (TPM) and FOTR was the only movie that showed an increase. The ratio of male voters to female voters declined, the only series that was able to increase their diversity. I know many have no use for this type of information, but I have found it very significant in the past in tracking films.

It did $14.6m in China and Japan combined.

This movie is the finale.

This movie will have four as opposed to three years of pent-up demand.


$833.9m-15.5% annual increase (LOTR)


...Lastly, the movie could actually be better than TDK.

The OS markets do work differently and not having 3D will definitely impact its total to blow out but I still believe $600m OS is highly likely. IMO it will come close to $700m OS total but as of now I don't see it $800m+ big.

Boxoffice.com has moved it's projected final gross pred. up by 5 mill, putting it a hair above TDK.

Not having 3D will lower its potential OS gross, but I don't think it is fucked. Now was Chou meaning compared to Avengers? He is most likely right if he meant it in that manner. However, if he meant it can't do more than $600m+, then I think he is wrong. I really think $600m (lock with 99% confidence)-650m (realistic minimum with 90% confidence) is the floor for this movie due to the expansion in markets, especially India, China, and Russia. In Russia alone, Twilight has gone over four movies from $3.6m to $18.6m to $26.4m to $31.8m, all in three years. TDKR should be able to do something in the $25-35m range in that market even without 3D, if Twilight has been able to achieve the growth it has. I also think people are kind of underestimating how well liked/loved the last film was. There are very few films that have achieved that level of adoration in the past quarter century.

WB decided to release an actual plot synopsis

Sounds cool. I think at some point in the movie, Bane will present to Gotham who Harvey Dent really became right before his death. There is a picture of him holding a Dent picture in the streets.

Definitely as my post tell $700m Os total is likely and by no way it is fucked because it is not in 3D. I still don't buy the very liked argument for OS markets. It just doesn't have huge openings to post great totals in OS markets even though the legs are great.

I don't follow the OS OW markets well enough to know if my theory on the previous film being well liked will lead to large increases like it does in the Domestic market. I could be completely wrong on that assumption. My biggest concern at the moment is the strength of TASM and The Avengers in Mexico, S. America, and some Asian markets tampering any potential growth for TDKR.

The competition around TDKR will be big with IA4 and Spidey both getting humungous OS totals. Its not that this movie cannot co-exist with those but the openings overall for Batman movies are not HUGE enough (it will get bigger opening than TDK in almost all the markets) to get it to $800m OS.