Really? I would think that Crash's audience (mainly adults) are more likely to purchase tickets online.

I don't think moviefone's list is all about purchasing tickets. It's most requested, so it depends on how many people are searching for the movie instead of how many actually end up buying the tickets. Either way, we had similar doubt with XXX2 as well, and I thought that could be an exception. It turned out to be a good indication, so I'd err on the conservative side for this week. It's not just Crash, but also Kingdom of Heaven. When an opener couldn't beat two holdovers for a spot in the top 5 by this time, it means the interests aren't as big as people are believing.

All the Yahoo charts aren't encouraging either. Monster-in-Law at least has shown up in a couple, but Kicking & Screaming has really been missing. I think I'm going with a historically bad weekend.

Isn't it that The Pacifier wasn't on it either?

It was on by now (No. 3).

My predictions have been sent to Eagle, and the Derby. Some of you will be very surprized with my Mindhunters prediction.

1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
2. Crash (2005)
3. Cinderella Man
4. Kingdom of Heaven
5. Monster-in-Law

It's back at #5 at Moviefone, and Kicking and Screaming is nowhere to be found, which is quite odd, since they have that big add for it as soon as you go to the site. You would think that it would be drawing more interest than Monster-in-Law.

I think that families are a lot less likely to buy tickets online, but I'm still very worried about both the big openers right now, as it's looking very bad for them (Unleashed and Mindhunters not so much, no one expects them to break out anyways).

I don't really consider 25M to be a big opening for this time of the year. It mediocre considering what the openings are during this time for the past number of years.

That is true, but those movies had 50 million marketing campaigns and huge stars, not to mention much wider appeal then any of this weekend's openers (and even better reviews then all the openers except for Unleashed, which has been getting surprisingly strong ones).

If reviews mattered for comedies, the 38% that Meet the Fockers got wouldn't haven't translated into like 46M for the opening, let alone 280M for the total. Critics don't have good senses of humor, and I think moviegoers know this. I've always known not to pay any attention reviews where comedies are concerned, so I'll assume I'm not the only one. Too many critics don't realize that you can't watch a comedy as if you're watching a serious movie. They don't have the right perspective. This is my biggest problem with the likes of Roger Ebert, he dissects too much and sacrifices enjoyment. Just take a look at this review, and you'll see what I mean.

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbc ... S/50504005

I'll post this Variety article here, I guess.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111792 ... Id=13&cs=1

Pix take aim at cold streak
'Kicking,' 'Monster' to battle at box office

By GABRIEL SNYDER
Two laffers will duke it out as New Line's femme-friendly "Monster-in-Law" bows in 3,424 theaters while Universal's family pic "Kicking and Screaming" will debut at 3,457.

Also bowing today are Rogue's martial-arts actioner "Unleashed" at 1,955 venues and Dimension's thriller "Mindhunters" at 1,040.

On this weekend last year, "Troy" bowed with $47 million, lifting total receipts for the frame to $112 million.

New Line and Universal are optimistic about the prospects for their pics and believe the combo will lead to a boost at the wickets.

New Line distrib prexy David Tuckerman said he thought this weekend's biz could improve on last year's total. "Both our opening and 'Kicking and Screaming' are going to be good, and the holdover stuff is going to be solid," he said. "You'll know in a month or so whether there's anything wrong with our business because there's a lot of good films coming."

Nonetheless, the matchup of the weekend's biggest new entrants is an odd one. The PG-13 "Monster," which stars Jennifer Lopez and marks Jane Fonda's return to the bigscreen, is tracking very strongly with femme auds.

New Line held 849 sneaks last Sunday and was impressed by the 95% capacity turnout. "Normally sneaks are in the 70s," Tuckerman said, "and this was a difficult day to sneak on because it was Mother's Day at 4 in the afternoon." He said the aud was 65% female, with 60% over age 30.

Meanwhile, U has promoted Will Ferrelll's PG-rated "Kicking" most heavily to family auds.

"We feel good about it," said U distrib prexy Nikki Rocco. "It's a family film, there's nothing to compete with us, plus it's Will Ferrell. So those are three things working for us."

But the potential auds of the two pics may have a lot of overlap. Family films are famously difficult to track, but so far the pic's strongest quadrant has been females under 25 -- also a core demo for "Monster."

In a slight twist on the usual counterprogramming strategy, Rogue is launching "Unleashed" as an alternative for young males not interested in either "Monster" or "Kicking."

Star Jet Li's "Black Mask" opened on the same weekend in 1999 with $4.5 million. But his subsequent pics have opened well, though played off quickly -- typical for the genre.

"Cradle 2 the Grave," which like "Unleashed" had some hip-hop tie-ins, opened with $16.5 million in 2003 and cumed $35 million. New pic is opening at several hundred fewer theaters than "Cradle," and bow should end up somewhere in between those of "Black Mask" and "Cradle."

Industry expectations for Val Kilmer -LL Cool J thriller "Mindhunters," which has been gathering dust on Dimension's shelf for several years, are more modest. Pic has been pitched to a similar aud as "Unleashed."

Opening in limited release this weekend on 10 screens in L.A. and Gotham is Sony Pictures ClassicsSony Pictures Classics' "Layer Cake," a Brit caper pic from Matthew Vaughn, who is next tackling "X-Men 3."

Also bowing, on a solo screen in L.A., is "Tell Them Who You Are," ThinkFilm's doc on cinematographer Haskell Wexler by his son Mark.

Other releases include Paramount Classics ' "Mad Hot Ballroom" on two Gotham screens, TLA's "Ma Mere" and Freestyle's "Modigliani" on eight screens and Wellspring's "Kings and Queen" on two in Gotham.

I would say to take a look at the user reviews to Moster-In-law before we say audiences will like this but critics wont. Its currently at a lacklustre [for Yahoo] B- on Yahoo movies, thats not the best of news for a Romantic Comedy.
Its at 5.6/10 on IMDB; thats less than one point ahead of "Elektra" and its a full point and a bit hehind Hitch and nearly a point behind 13 Going on 30. Its not great considering most of those reviews will be from Fonda and Lopez fans. I really dont see the word of mouth being all that great for this one

http://naturalflux7.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1705

My predictions

Final predictions:
1. Kicking and Screaming - 19.1 million NEW
2. Monster-in-Law - 18.7 million NEW
3. Kingdom of Heaven - 9.2 million (-53%)
4. Unleashed - 7.4 million NEW
5. Crash - 6.4 million (-30%)
6. House of Wax - 5.6 million (-54%)
7. The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - 5.2 million (-47%)
8. The Interpreter - 4.8 million (-39%)
9. xXx: State of the Union - 2.5 million (-55%)
10. Mindhunters - 2 million NEW

Kicking & Screaming has the problem that it's soccer movie. Monster-in-Law is the second Meet the Parents rip-off in a short period. Unleashed should have been more action and less drama. Mindhunters is getting dumped.

Wonder if HOUSE OF WAX will avoid a 60%+ plunge this weekend...

Monster-In-Law $25.30 m
Kicking and Screaming $20.60 m
Kingdom of Heaven $9.39 m
Unleashed $6.90 m
Crash $6.22 m
House of Wax $5.08 m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $4.86 m
The Interpreter $4.66 m
xXx: State of the Union $2.31 m
Sahara $2.01 m
Mindhunters $1.80 m
The Amityville Horror $1.71 m
A Lot Like Love $1.54 m
Fever Pitch $1.10 m

All of mine are pretty close to Ragnarok, with the exception I took a few bold chances on Mindhunters at 1.6 ( I almost had 1.2) and Monster in Law at 24.0 just based on the WOM ive been hearing at my theatre

Derby and The Apprentice game:

Kicking & Screaming $22.1m
Monster-In-Law $13.4m
Kingdom of Heaven $9.6m
Unleashed $7.9m
Crash $6.1m
House of Wax $5.7m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $5.3m
The Interpreter $4.8m
Mindhunters $2.4m
XXX: State of the Union $2.3m

Rest of games just openers different:

Kicking & Screaming $17.5m
Monster-In-Law $15m
Unleashed $7.9m
Mindhunters $2.2m

Final predictions:

1. Monster-in-Law - 15.5
2. Kicking & Screaming - 12.0
3. Kingdom of Heaven - 10.0
4. Unleashed - 8.4
5. Crash - 6.7
6. House of Wax - 5.3
7. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy - 5.0
8. The Interpreter - 4.7
9. XXX: State of the Union - 2.5
10. Mindhunters - 1.8

Final Derby Predictions:

1. Monster-In-Law - 16.2m
2. Kicking & Screaming - 15.1m
3. Kingdom of Heaven - 9.6m
4. Crash - 5.9m
5. Unleashed - 5.7m
6. House of Wax - 5.7m
7. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy - 5.1m
8. The Interpreter - 4.6m
9. XXX: State of the Union - 2.4m
10. Mindhunters - 1.3m


@ Monster-In-Law: Another Meet-the-Parents-rip-off...
@ Kicking & Screaming: Originally, I had it at 13.6m, but because of its theatercount I took about 15m for this one. Trailer doesn't look that good to me and soccer isn't so popular in America...
@ Unleashed: I hope it does well, but I just don't see it making 10m+
@ Mindhunters: The film is really good, but this doesn't mean it will do well...

Good predictions, Martin. I probably went too low with Kicking & Screaming. I had its Friday pinned at 4M, which seems correct with the early Yahoo pace, but due to lack of sleep, I forgot it will a very good internal multiplier (3.5 - 3.6 range given what Daddy Day Care and Pacifier did). Should've left it at 14M.

Kicking & Screaming - $18.0 million
Monster In Law - $16.0 million
Kingdom of Heaven - $10.8 million
Unleashed - $8.5 million
Crash - $6.2 million
House of Wax - $5.2 million
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $4.8 million
The Interpreter - $4.7 million
Mindhunters - $2.3 million
XXX: The State of the Union - $2.1 million

PEACE, Mike

Looks like I'm the only one that went high on both main openers... :razz:

Kicking and Screaming - $28.3m
Monster-in-Law - $20.5m
Unleashed - $10.7m
Mindhunters - $2.9m
Kingdom of Heaven - $9.8m
House of Wax - $5.4m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $5.1m
Crash - $6.2m
The Interpreter - $5.0m
XXX: State of the Union - $2.4m

Final Predictions

1. Kicking and Screaming - $24.6M
2. Monster-in-Law- $23.3M
3. Kingdom of Heaven- $10M
4. Unleashed- $9.9M
5. Crash- $6.5M
6. House of Wax- $5.9M
7. The Hitchhiker's - $5.2M
8. The Interpreter- $4.4M
9. Mindhunters- $2.8M
10. XXX: State of the Union- $2.3M

Some of these predictions are beyond hillariously low.
I know the box office is going rough but playing it ultrasafe never got anyone anywhere.