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 Friday Numbers 
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No Wire Tampons!

Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am
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Scarily, Jennifer Lopez DOES have fans.
Furthermore i don't think women actually dislike her as much as the media would like us to think. Shes been known to pull in romantic comedy crowds inspite of bad buzz.

The problem with romantic comedies is they can't ride on one name alone, with a few exceptions in 13 Going on 30 and Sweet Home Alabama. They NEED two big names to hoist them forward. If you look at the biggest romcoms out there. with the exception of MBFGW, youll notice that nearly all of them need a big male lead and a bigger female lead to drive them. MIL has two big female leads an a fairly well known male lead. MIL also has a high concept comic element to it which will definately help it out.

Its a surefire hit. I hope :P

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Sat May 07, 2005 1:30 pm
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Wallflower
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MONSTER-IN-LAW looks better than SITH :wink:. I'd rather see the former.


From Box Office Guru:

Sir Ridley Scott seized the top spot at the North American box office on Friday with the launch of the epic war film Kingdom of Heaven which grossed an estimated $7.3M in its first day of release. The first-day tally was a bit lower than the $8.2M opening day of Russell Crowe's epic Master and Commander and Tom Cruise's $8M Friday on The Last Samurai. Those lengthy R-rated period adventures went on to capture opening weekends of $25.1M and $24.3M, respectively. Kingdom should come in slightly behind and collect $22-24M this weekend.

The horror remake House of Wax scared up an estimated $5M on Friday in its first day of release. The Warner Bros. fright flick looks to take in $13-15M over the weekend. Lions Gate launched its ensemble thriller Crash and grossed an estimated $2.9M which should lead to a three-day take of $8-9M.

Among holdovers, Friday-to-Friday declines were 64% for The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, 59% for XXX: State of the Union, and 45% for The Interpreter.


Sat May 07, 2005 1:33 pm
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Golfaholic
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Wow! 100 replies?? It seems more people are interest in KOH's box-office than went to the theatres


Sat May 07, 2005 1:53 pm
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This is a terrible B.O. weekend for the first one in May.

KOH is really disappointing. I think the reviews killed its chance at $30m, but even if they had been 90% I doubt this movie could have topped the $35m I was sure it was headed towards on Thursday. The interest just doesn't seem to be there. The movie will probably have pretty weak legs 2.5 or worse.

HOW is about what I expected but still disappointing. You would think it would have been able to make more with KOH not bustin out.

Crash also what I expected but in connection with other two makes this a combined washout.

Is that fact that spring has been unseasonably cold (its the coldest Spring I can remember)? Is the impact of DVD's finally having a real effect on total b.o.? I don't know but I don't see any movie even Sith breaking out. We had 4 movies top $370 m in 7 mos. last year starting with the release of ROTK and ending with SM2. I am almost positive we won't have one movie top that total the rest of the year, and I really start to doubt we will have one top $300m. Hollywood really needs to come up with some original concepts: remakes, sequals, and epics have run their course.

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Sat May 07, 2005 1:55 pm
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Star Trek XI

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cujoy wrote:
Libs wrote:
Michael wrote:
Libs wrote:
Guess it's Monster-in-Law for you next weekend, Zingy. :razz:


I actually think we should be looking at Monster In Law as a $100m success. Jane Fonda whips up a lot of curiousity over this film, Jennifer Lopez has proven her worth as a romantic comedy lead and Michael Vartan has the Alias teenage girls to follow him. Id say at least $80m, but likely upwards.


I think it's possible, actually. The market is very weak at the moment and the only movie out targeting women is The Interpreter (but that doesn't specifically target women) and Fever Pitch, which will be dead soon.

Watch out for J. Lo and Fonda next weekend. I'm not saying it'll be #1, but a performance over $20M wouldn't shock me.


The thing about Monster-in-law is that I've hardly seen any commercials. Do people even know it's coming out? And I have a hard time believing that JLo has much of an audience left. But I suppose it could surprise.

Frankly, I think that a certain movie to remain nameless, coming out on May 19, is what everyone is waiting for. And I think it, and Madagascar, will save May. :Drink:


Actually I didn't even know who was in it till I checked today. I hate Jane Fonda I hope this movie tanks.

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All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Sat May 07, 2005 1:57 pm
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I somewhat have my doubts about Madagascar now. Is the trailers that much better than Robots? Had Madagascar opened in Robots opening date, I dont think it would of made that much more than Robots? I think despite opening in the summer, I dont think the movie would really cross 250 million dollars


Sat May 07, 2005 2:09 pm
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Extraordinary
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El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
I somewhat have my doubts about Madagascar now. Is the trailers that much better than Robots? Had Madagascar opened in Robots opening date, I dont think it would of made that much more than Robots? I think despite opening in the summer, I dont think the movie would really cross 250 million dollars


Yeah. I think it'll actually flatten out somewhere around 200 actually. People are overpredicting that movie.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:10 pm
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Teenage Dream
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El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
I somewhat have my doubts about Madagascar now. Is the trailers that much better than Robots? Had Madagascar opened in Robots opening date, I dont think it would of made that much more than Robots? I think despite opening in the summer, I dont think the movie would really cross 250 million dollars


At my theater Madagascar's trailer got a much better reaction then Robots' trailer.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:11 pm
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College Boy Z

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
I somewhat have my doubts about Madagascar now. Is the trailers that much better than Robots? Had Madagascar opened in Robots opening date, I dont think it would of made that much more than Robots? I think despite opening in the summer, I dont think the movie would really cross 250 million dollars


Robots trailer suuuuuuuucked.

Madagascar looks alright, but it did get a great reaction when I saw Robots.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:14 pm
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dolcevita wrote:
El_Masked_esteROIDe_user wrote:
I somewhat have my doubts about Madagascar now. Is the trailers that much better than Robots? Had Madagascar opened in Robots opening date, I dont think it would of made that much more than Robots? I think despite opening in the summer, I dont think the movie would really cross 250 million dollars


Yeah. I think it'll actually flatten out somewhere around 200 actually. People are overpredicting that movie.


You also thought Shrek 2 looked bad. :razz:

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Sat May 07, 2005 2:15 pm
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Star Trek XI

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mdana wrote:

Is that fact that spring has been unseasonably cold (its the coldest Spring I can remember)? Is the impact of DVD's finally having a real effect on total b.o.? I don't know but I don't see any movie even Sith breaking out. We had 4 movies top $370 m in 7 mos. last year starting with the release of ROTK and ending with SM2. I am almost positive we won't have one movie top that total the rest of the year, and I really start to doubt we will have one top $300m. Hollywood really needs to come up with some original concepts: remakes, sequals, and epics have run their course.


I don't think this years spring/winter box office was that weak. Its just last year's was unusually strong with The Passion of the Christ being as big as it was.

According to the BOM seasonal box office chart (might have to be a paid member to see it) this spring (March and April) was down 24.4% from last year though most movies this year have yet to finish their run.

Spring total grosses.

2005 --- $950.6 Million (still tracking)
2004 - $1,182.1 Million
2003 --- $946.2 Million
2002 - $1,155.2 Million
2001 --- $844.2 Million
2000 --- $961.5 Million
1999 --- $861.2 Million

Winter total grosses

2005 - $1,094.3 Million (still tracking)
2004 - $1,159.4 Million
2003 - $1,163.5 Million
2002 - $1,098.6 Million
2001 - $1,090.5 Million
2000 --- $744.2 Million
1999 --- $803.0 Million

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Sat May 07, 2005 2:16 pm
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Ooooh, Still solid for HOUSE OF WAX....on par with DARK CASTLE's history.

Glad it never flopped! :) Go Paris! hehe!

Should finish in between $30M-$40M.

W00t! :P

Kingdom Of Heaven....Bahahaha.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:16 pm
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Speed Racer

Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:16 pm
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mdana wrote:
This is a terrible B.O. weekend for the first one in May.

:snip:

remakes, sequals, and epics have run their course.


I agree that this is a terrible BO weekend for the first week of May.

I also agree that Hollywood needs to cool it with the remakes and epics. They have burnt out the audience. But certain franchise sequels are still, obviously golden. Three of those four $370+ million dollar movies were franchise sequels. So was Fockers.

Episode III is a franchise sequel. And it faces little competition. It's going to clean house.

My question is what is Hollywood going to rely on now? LOTR is over. SW will be over after ROTS. HP's shelf life diminishes with each film. Almost every big film coming out the rest of the year is a remake, (WotW, King Kong) or a sequel (ROTS, Batman, HP) And so far Summer 2006 looks like sequels to X-Men, Superman and POTC, and a remake of the Posidon Adventure. There are still original hits coming out with but they are mostly animations. Hollywood had better come up with something quick ;)

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Beating a Drum for: DaVinci Code, Cars, Pirates of the Carribbean II


Sat May 07, 2005 2:16 pm
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I think it's kind've a hasty judgement to say Hollywood is basically going down the tubes based on one weekend that was questionable in the first place, but that's just me.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:21 pm
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Jiffy208 wrote:
I think it's kind've a hasty judgement to say Hollywood is basically going down the tubes based on one weekend that was questionable in the first place, but that's just me.


I agree. KOH looked like crap and performed like it. Compared to this the trailers for Van Helsing and Troy looked awesome.

Wait till 5/19/05 and we will be fine.

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Sat May 07, 2005 2:24 pm
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Major overestimate for Fever Pitch if we trust BOM numbers more...


Kingdom of Heaven $7.150.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) - TOTAL= $7.150.000
House of Wax $4.780.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) - TOTAL= $4.780.000
Crash $2.800.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) $2.800.000
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $2.860.000 ( 168,06% );( -63,46% ) - TOTAL= $28.849.450
The Interpreter $2.245.000 ( 175,33% );( -45,30% ) - TOTAL= $48.825.915
XXX2: State of the Union $1.745.000 ( 192,18% );( -58,25% ) - TOTAL= $17.126.956
The Amityville Horror $1.105.000 ( 125,38% );( -56,61% ) - TOTAL= $58.065.802
A Lot Like Love $1.090.000 ( 297,44% );( -40,19% ) - TOTAL= $16.845.913
Sahara $920.000 ( 174,78% );( -42,04% ) - TOTAL= $59.156.660
Fever Pitch $645.000 ( 266,03% );( -40,40% ) - TOTAL= $37.666.272


Sat May 07, 2005 2:31 pm
College Boy Z

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Anyone notice that xXx: State of the Union might have a better drop than Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy this weekend? :razz:


Sat May 07, 2005 2:34 pm
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Extraordinary

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Kingdom of shir bombed bad!

Best friends spielberg and lucas will rule the summer,they will have the #1 and #2 grossing films of the summer IMO.

Rvenge of the sith will kick ass! if it opens in more than 3,700 theatres its going to break every opening weekend record.


Sat May 07, 2005 2:42 pm
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This just proves the worse the reviews for an epic are the worse its BO potentials are.

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Sat May 07, 2005 3:18 pm
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Star Trek XI

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The real summer box office season will begin on May 19 this year.

_________________
All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Sat May 07, 2005 3:29 pm
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What a terribly disappointing weekend.


Sat May 07, 2005 3:53 pm
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About what I originally expected for Crash and HOW, but I'm very disappointed by KOH, still, I think it can earn about 22m this weekend, and over 75m in total given the audience. It will have a decent muliplier at the very least.

I'm not suprised over Hitchhiker's drop. The fanbase rushed out, and weak WOM hurt it. xXx 2 does suprise me a bit. Although the drop is 59%, I thought it would be worse.

I'm wondering if this summer will turn into a disaster.


Last edited by DP07 on Sat May 07, 2005 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat May 07, 2005 4:22 pm
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Extraordinary
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Very disappointed by KoH's number. :cry:

What a weak may so far... :-k

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Sat May 07, 2005 5:03 pm
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Ouuuchh. Quite disappointing for Kingdom of Heaven. I had a bad feeling it wouldn't do well this weekend judging by the (it seems) only minimal anticipation and only decent awarness for it. And look- it has a mediocre opening. I bet a lot of people who heard about the movie or saw the trailer didn't know what it was about since the Crusades isn't exactly well-known history to most Americans. Maybe they just didn't buy a film with Orlando Bloom as the leading star (the R-rating could of hurt too limiting the teenage audience who love Orlando). Had a crappy marketing campaign as well in my humble opinion. It could possibly have good legs, but I doubt it. $65-75 million final I see. BIG BUDGET BOMB considering it cost what, $130 or $150 milion? Yikes. Better luck next time Mr. Scott. Fox is mad.

Only decent numbers for House of Wax and Crash as well. Didn't expect either to break out.
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith...you are our only hope to save the summer. By all indications it will be HUGE.

I'm out.

EDIT: Oh yeah, quite a large drop for Hitchhiker's and XXX2. Surprising for Hitchhiker's. I guess all the fans of the book went opening weekend and WOM wasn't too great. Shame. Ha ha, XXX!!!


Sat May 07, 2005 6:14 pm
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The Thirteenth Floor
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Nebs wrote:
Major overestimate for Fever Pitch if we trust BOM numbers more...


Kingdom of Heaven $7.150.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) - TOTAL= $7.150.000
House of Wax $4.780.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) - TOTAL= $4.780.000
Crash $2.800.000 ( NEW );( NEW ) $2.800.000
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $2.860.000 ( 168,06% );( -63,46% ) - TOTAL= $28.849.450
The Interpreter $2.245.000 ( 175,33% );( -45,30% ) - TOTAL= $48.825.915
XXX2: State of the Union $1.745.000 ( 192,18% );( -58,25% ) - TOTAL= $17.126.956
The Amityville Horror $1.105.000 ( 125,38% );( -56,61% ) - TOTAL= $58.065.802
A Lot Like Love $1.090.000 ( 297,44% );( -40,19% ) - TOTAL= $16.845.913
Sahara $920.000 ( 174,78% );( -42,04% ) - TOTAL= $59.156.660
Fever Pitch $645.000 ( 266,03% );( -40,40% ) - TOTAL= $37.666.272


Thanks Nebs. :wink:


Sat May 07, 2005 6:29 pm
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