Pretty simple. There are a few Aussies on the board - but this is for everyone.

What do you guys think Australia will do here in Oz? The hype has been unheard of and people will go to see it just to see what the hype is about - even though reviews have been mixed and their is a backlash of sorts.

So what do you guys think it will do?

Here are the top 40 (or so) films of all time in Oz...

1 Titanic 57.64m
2 Shrek 2 50.38m
3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 49.37m
4 Crocodile Dundee 47.7m
5 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 47.42m
6 The Dark Knight 47.0m
7 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 45.65m
8 Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone 42.34m
9 Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace 38.82m
10 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest 38.05m
11 Finding Nemo 37.39m
12 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 37.37m
13 Babe 36.77m
14 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 35.72m
15 Mamma Mia! 35.0m
16 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 35.52m
17 Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith 35.45m
18 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 35.16m
19 Meet the Fockers 34.97m
20 Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones 33.86m
21 Shrek The Third 33.72m
22 The Matrix Reloaded 33.62m
23 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 33.14m
24 Piratesof the Caribbean: At World’s End 33.09m
25 Jurassic Park 33m
26 E.T. 32.66m
27 Casino Royale 32.21m
28 Shrek 32.09m
29 Happy Feet 31.78m
30 The Simpsons Movie 31.43m
31 Gladiator 31.11m
32 Spider-Man 30.84m
33 Forrest Gump 30.56m
34 Star Wars2 29.64m
35 Independence Day 29.49m
36 The Sixth Sense 29.3m
37 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 27.0m
38 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 27.98m
39 Transformers 27.91m
40 Moulin Rouge 27.72m
41 The Lion King 27.1m
42 Sex and the City 27.0m

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Even though It may become the biggest film of all time here, I think there will be enough backlash to keep it out of reach of Titanic.

Im going for $55m

Two things, first the rest of us, what backlash has been happening?

Second, just look at the monster gross of Dundee. It's still #4 of all time, after 22 years. I think that despite an early backlash, the film will make a lot of money there. I'm thinking at least $50 m, but see it doing $60 m +.

Max 30M.

Top 5

There are a number of blogs and posts on different sites attacking the media hype and Kidman et al. Also cringing at the possible depiction of Aussies and the country (I say "possible" because most havnt seen it yet so are only assuming)

But its definitely going to be big. Especially among adults over 40.

im thinking it might make A$35-40m should have great legs as well even if the opening is warm. HSM3, Four Christmases (I refuse to call it by the Australian title, seriously wtf Roadshow) open next week and Twilight opens the following week, but i don't see any competition coming until boxing day.

the backlash i'm hearing about is the whole stolen generation thing. many Australians are still supremely ignorant when it comes to Aboriginal people. and i think this might embarrass Australia a bit, i really think so. cuz judging by the reviews by the American critics, they are really shocked at the practices of the Australian government at that time.

I don't think this will top AUD$40m, not feeling this one at the momment. The promotion is massive, but i'm not sure if people are really that interested. The first thing that comes to mind for people is the ridiculous running time.

This is going to have a big opening, then drop heavily in the 2nd week, before showing legs through the Christmas break.

Right now i'm thinking a Mamma Mia rivaling $35m.

Just on Four Christmasas - totally agree. Saw the poster on a bus stop and couldnt stop laughing. Thats the most stupid name change ive ever seen. It actually changes the meaning of the title.

I hope yours and Arch's estimate of $35-$40m is more of what it will make.

I really looked forward to it but some recent reviews i stumpled upon aren't just underwhelming but plain awful. Any link to a gushing reception to regain interest?

Variety and Hollywood Reporter.

http://uk.rottentomatoes.com/m/australia/

The reviews are pretty sucky

What's the Australian title for Four Christmases?

As for the topic: I see around $45-50 million.

"Four Holidays"

It's not as bad as in Germany where it was given a title that makes it sound like a sequel to Mee the Parents (no shit).

Really? Local distributors have no clue sometimes. Though I can understand that changing it to another language can result in some odd names but why do that in Oz.

With the same multiplier as Bond - it would make $7.58m (Wed-Sun). Though I think its multiplier will be a bit better because its a longer film and should play a bit better on the weekend. So $8-$9m is in play.

This movie wasn't marketed well at all.

Wednesday is an unusual day for a release in Australia, and i don't think it's a "must see it opening day" kind of movie. so its off to a good start.

one of the worst ones:

The Rundown >>>>> Welcome to the Jungle
13 Going on 30 >>>>> Suddenly 30

Not huge, but it's not that bad. $1.3m Wednesday is the 6th largest opening Wednesday on record. Quantum is at #4. Of course the slightly longer running time will hurt, it needs to have pretty good WOM to overcome this or people will thing it's too long and not enough entertainment to last.

u have to deduct 15 minutes at the end for the closing credit. i think people forget this. though its still a 2.5 hr film with that deducted.

Here:

The Rundown >> Welcome to the Jungle
13 Going on 30 >> 30 Over Night

According to Variety: US$5m opening = A$7.8m

Should clear A$30m

How's the WoM?

So its inline with Bond's multiplier. $30m sounds about right.

WOM I dont know - but its drawing demos that dont go to the movies often. Probably not drawing the teen demo as much though.