No, Flight of the Phoenix is a movie that is coming out this month, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix(OOTP) is the 5th harry potter book.

no, he was right first time, it Order of the Phoenix

Ah, the key to winning debates, spam until they can't take it anymore.



Do I have to make the case for 400m? I think it will earn 380m-390m. :wink:



I more or less agree on those last points although I think the disappointments of epics has more to do with a lack of popularity for the genre on the domestic side.

I think I read somewhere that all three kids will be back for the 5th movie. All of the adults will be, but it won't be the same without he three kids. And, it's not that far-fetched for them to star in all the movies. They wont be that old. The 6th book should be out next summer, then the movie in November. The 5th movie is probably scheduled for June 2007, then November 2008 for the 6th film. By then, the 7th book should be out and the movie could be out by November 2009 or June 2010. The actors will only be roughly 20, which is not that old to be playing 18 year olds.

Do it anyways. It'll improve your recognition on the boards and it'll add one "value" to your post count!

Er. Not funny, I know

I'd go to the quiz forum or water cooler if I wanted to do that. :wink:

If you don't, I will. I think both SM3 and SHrek 3 will cruise past $400m.

With SM3 and Sk3 both claiming May, no other studio will be stupid enough to put out another major film out during the month, so these films have the whole month by themselves. Maybe some rom-com MMDWkdn, but who cares about those.

Also, SM3 first, and then Srk3, will break the weekend records, so the May 2007 will definitely be a kick-ass month

A $130m* opening weekend, for example, would require only a 3.1x multipier for it to reach $400m. It's not that difficult to do that, not when MMDWKnd is just around the corner.

However, I'm working away from the assumption that SM3 will open 1st weekend of May, as it should, and Shrek 3 the weekend before MMDWknd, as it too should.


Btw, the premise sounds very promising: Shrek will come into contact with King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table! I mean, come on! Even I, who didn't care much for Shrek 2, will want to see that!


*$130m based on $6.5/ticket, the avg. ticket price for 2007. It corresponds to 20m admissions, the same figure as for SM1. I expect mega-saturation; 4,500+ theatres.

Yeah, that concept is great. I can't help but smile thinking about it.

400m, is very possible, although I'd mostly use the reasons Ross just used to say that I think it's less likely then not. :wink:

I certainly think that Spiderman 3 will open with more then Shrek 3 though (assuming Friday releases). Shrek 3 just won't be frontloaded enough as a family film: even with 480m total, I don't think it will top 150m opening weekend. I do expect more then that from Spiderman 3. With a gross that is likely to be greater then SM2 given the WOM for that film, I think it will likely open with 160m or more. X2 had a multiplier of just over 2.5 and VH was even lower, and with a few more years of frontloading, I think the multiplier is likely to be about 2.3.

An any case, I think Batman and Superman can both break the weekend record before that. If not, I'm certain that Pirates of the Caribbean 2 will, even with a Wednesday release date. ~150m opening for that one if it opens Friday.

Anyone think that the switch may be due to Incredibles' gross not catching up to Finding Nemo?
Or Spongebob and Polar Express under-performing dueing the holiday season??

I think $300m is a lock and with inflation, I'd be bold enough to say $375 million is a lock! I'd go up to $450-475 ya, but those arent locks!

I'm 17 now and I'll be well into college, I'd still wanna see it!
I think any loss in fans because of aging will be more than made up for with new little kiddie fans.

I can't wait for Shrek 3 or SM 3, I think that Shrek 3 will probably win.

If its a 2010 release, then ya.


Even by 2007 standards, that would still correspond to 23.1m admissions based on $6.5, and if you use 4,500 theatres as its count, that's 5,130 admissions per theatre. 2006, it'd be ~24m admissions, which is a ridiculous prediction for any film, period.

However, the more theatres a film opens in, the smaller the admissions/theatre would be because smaller theatres are incorporated. Big films play in big theatres no matter whether their count is 3,500 or 4,500; but those extra 1,000 include theatres that are much smaller, with smaller capacities.

Shrek 2 came within less than $7m of Sm1's record, yet it's avg. admissions/theatre was 4,225, compared to 5,466 for SM1, a full 29% smaller.


Even hugely successful filmsp laying in fewer theatres couldn't match Sm1's theatre avg. The Passion and F 9/11 came the closest, and among films in recent years.

Take a look at the top avg. admissions/theatre since 1980 for films opening in 500+ theatres.

1 Return of the Jedi 7,293
2 Spider-Man 5,468
3 The Lost World: Jurassic Park 4,790
4 Jurassic Park 4,725
5 Batman 4,649
6 Rocky III 4,503
7 Fahrenheit 9/11 4,488
8 The Passion of the Christ 4,488
9 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 4,470
10 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones 4,358
11 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 4,345
12 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 4,296
13 Batman Forever 4,270
14 Rocky IV 4,250
15 Shrek 2 4,227
16 The Matrix Reloaded 4,224
17 Batman Returns 4,164
18 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 4,130
19 Aladdin 4,110
20 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 3,958
21 Independence Day 3,943
22 Twister 3,848
23 The Lion King 3,833
24 Rush Hour 2 3,820
25 X2: X-Men United 3,793
26 Back to the Future Part II 3,759
27 Star Wars (Special Edition) 3,718
28 Men in Black 3,684
29 Forrest Gump 3,667
30 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 3,650
31 Good Morning, Vietnam 3,643
32 8 Mile 3,571
33 The Mummy Returns 3,540
34 Toy Story 2 3,491
35 Austin Powers in Goldmember 3,481
36 Planet of the Apes 3,460
37 Spider-Man 2 3,458
38 Finding Nemo 3,453
39 Monsters, Inc. 3,416
40 Mission: Impossible 3,413
41 Home Alone 2: Lost in New York 3,376
42 Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home 3,373
43 Home Alone 3,360
44 Interview with the Vampire 3,343
45 X-Men 3,341
46 Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3,318
47 The Hunt For Red October 3,312
48 Jaws 3-D 3,278
49 Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls 3,277
50 The Day After Tomorrow 3,269
51 How the Grinch Stole Christmas 3,268
52 Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me 3,264
53 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 3,253
54 Pearl Harbor 3,248
55 Bruce Almighty 3,235
56 Lethal Weapon 3 3,191
57 Batman & Robin 3,184
58 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 3,178
59 Hannibal 3,173
60 Signs 3,170
61 The Waterboy 3,155
62 Firefox 3,148
63 Mrs. Doubtfire 3,080
64 Ghostbusters II 3,080
65 Ghostbusters 3,018
66 Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan 3,010

Here is a more detailed chart, but its not ordered. Stupid Excel :x


Spider-Man 2 3,458 | 4,152 | $21,232 ( $21,232 ) $6.14
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 3,958 | 3,855 | $24,302 ( $24,303 ) $6.14
X2: X-Men United 3,793 | 3,741 | $22,870 ( $23,288 ) $6.03
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 3,253 | 3,703 | $19,613 ( $19,972 ) $6.03
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 4,130 | 3,682 | $23,997 ( $25,360 ) $5.81
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 4,345 | 3,672 | $24,590 ( $26,675 ) $5.66
Spider-Man 5,468 | 3,615 | $31,768 ( $33,573 ) $5.81
Austin Powers in Goldmember 3,481 | 3,613 | $20,224 ( $21,373 ) $5.81
The Matrix Reloaded 4,224 | 3,603 | $25,471 ( $25,936 ) $6.03
Planet of the Apes 3,460 | 3,500 | $19,580 ( $21,241 ) $5.66
Bruce Almighty 3,235 | 3,483 | $19,510 ( $19,866 ) $6.03
The Day After Tomorrow 3,269 | 3,425 | $20,071 ( $20,071 ) $6.14
The Mummy Returns 3,540 | 3,401 | $20,035 ( $21,734 ) $5.66
Finding Nemo 3,453 | 3,374 | $20,821 ( $21,201 ) $6.03
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me 3,264 | 3,312 | $16,581 ( $20,041 ) $5.08
The Lost World: Jurassic Park 4,790 | 3,281 | $21,985 ( $29,411 ) $4.59
Signs 3,170 | 3,264 | $18,418 ( $19,464 ) $5.81
Monsters, Inc. 3,416 | 3,237 | $19,331 ( $20,971 ) $5.66
Toy Story 2 3,491 | 3,236 | $17,734 ( $21,435 ) $5.08
Hannibal 3,173 | 3,230 | $17,957 ( $19,481 ) $5.66
Pearl Harbor 3,248 | 3,214 | $18,381 ( $19,941 ) $5.66
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones 4,358 | 3,161 | $25,317 ( $26,755 ) $5.81
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 3,268 | 3,127 | $17,615 ( $20,066 ) $5.39
Rush Hour 2 3,820 | 3,118 | $21,619 ( $23,452 ) $5.66
The Passion of the Christ 4,488 | 3,043 | $27,554 ( $27,554 ) $6.14
X-Men 3,341 | 3,025 | $18,007 ( $20,513 ) $5.39
Men in Black 3,684 | 3,020 | $16,910 ( $22,620 ) $4.59
Mission: Impossible 3,413 | 3,012 | $15,085 ( $20,956 ) $4.42
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 4,296 | 2,970 | $21,825 ( $26,379 ) $5.08
Batman & Robin 3,184 | 2,934 | $14,612 ( $19,547 ) $4.59
Independence Day 3,943 | 2,882 | $17,428 ( $24,210 ) $4.42
Batman Forever 4,270 | 2,842 | $18,572 ( $26,216 ) $4.35
The Waterboy 3,155 | 2,664 | $14,795 ( $19,369 ) $4.69
Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls 3,277 | 2,652 | $14,254 ( $20,121 ) $4.35
Batman Returns 4,164 | 2,644 | $17,279 ( $25,566 ) $4.15
Interview with the Vampire 3,343 | 2,604 | $13,974 ( $20,527 ) $4.18
The Lion King 3,833 | 2,552 | $16,022 ( $23,535 ) $4.18
Lethal Weapon 3 3,191 | 2,510 | $13,244 ( $19,595 ) $4.15
8 Mile 3,571 | 2,470 | $20,745 ( $21,923 ) $5.81
Twister 3,848 | 2,414 | $17,008 ( $23,628 ) $4.42
Ghostbusters II 3,080 | 2,410 | $12,229 ( $18,914 ) $3.97
Jurassic Park 4,725 | 2,404 | $19,561 ( $29,012 ) $4.14
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 3,178 | 2,327 | $12,615 ( $19,513 ) $3.97
Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3,318 | 2,274 | $13,969 ( $20,373 ) $4.21
Home Alone 2: Lost in New York 3,376 | 2,222 | $14,008 ( $20,726 ) $4.15
Batman 4,649 | 2,194 | $18,454 ( $28,542 ) $3.97
Star Wars (Special Edition) 3,718 | 2,104 | $17,065 ( $22,829 ) $4.59
Back to the Future Part II 3,759 | 1,865 | $14,925 ( $23,083 ) $3.97
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 4,470 | 1,687 | $15,019 ( $27,446 ) $3.36
Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan 3,010 | 1,621 | $8,850 ( $18,484 ) $2.94
Mrs. Doubtfire 3,080 | 1,605 | $12,753 ( $18,914 ) $4.14
Forrest Gump 3,667 | 1,595 | $15,329 ( $22,518 ) $4.18
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home 3,373 | 1,349 | $12,514 ( $20,711 ) $3.71
Ghostbusters 3,018 | 1,339 | $10,140 ( $18,531 ) $3.36
Rocky IV 4,250 | 1,325 | $15,087 ( $26,096 ) $3.55
Jaws 3-D 3,278 | 1,300 | $10,325 ( $20,126 ) $3.15
The Hunt For Red October 3,312 | 1,225 | $14,009 ( $20,336 ) $4.23
Home Alone 3,360 | 1,202 | $14,211 ( $20,628 ) $4.23
Aladdin 4,110 | 1,131 | $17,054 ( $25,233 ) $4.15
E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial 3,650 | 1,103 | $10,730 ( $22,409 ) $2.94
Return of the Jedi 7,293 | 1,002 | $22,974 ( $44,779 ) $3.15
Rocky III 4,503 | 939 | $13,239 ( $27,648 ) $2.94
Firefox 3,148 | 881 | $9,254 ( $19,327 ) $2.94
Fahrenheit 9/11 4,488 | 868 | $27,558 ( $27,558 ) $6.14
Good Morning, Vietnam 3,643 | 785 | $14,971 ( $22,367 ) $4.11



ROTJ is the only film that beat Sm1, and why? Because it was in less than a third of the theatres, thus adding pressure to each one to make tremendous demand pressures.


Now, the list is misleading, because I only gave you films with huge averages; you won't find hits like Bourne or Shark Tale anywhere here. But 2 things you can see here: 1) the presence of older films, and 2) the extra-ordinary feats of films like Sm1, Shrek 2, TPOTC, and F 9/11 who pulled in more people on avg. than the supposedly more concentrated films of the 1980s. But even they have been well under $150m grossers. I don't see any way where Pirates 2 or a film of its kind would pull in 20-50% more people per theatre in 1,000 more theatres which will take pressure off from each other than The Passion, which had a tremendous publicity campaign and a desolate market.


Aside from that, Pirates attracted a mature audience, which gave it thep ush and the legs past $300m. They never rush out to see a film 1st weekend.

Seeing both films first hand from a theatre point of view I will say that the "fanbase" growing up is a NON factor... almost every single kid that came to see the 2nd did not see the first in theatres....It was shown to them by parents granparents whatever on dvd and got them interested. The same will happen with the 3rd..new kids who parents cousins whoever liked the first 2 will show them on dvd and a whole new fanbase is built...That is the power of cartoons.

Why do you think every 10 years or whatever Disney releases a classic it makes huge numbers, its marketing genius, its because new kids and a new fanbase has arrived.

Basically shrek 2 did well cause eevryone who saw the first one PLUS all the new kids who were too young the first go round made it big. So as long as the 3rd is equally as good I dont see why it cant be bigger than the 2nd. You got all the shrek 2 people PLUS new kids who were not old enough this time around....Shrug

Also "cgi overload" is a non factor, as CGI is the new cartoon, and back in the day handdrawn cartoons never were overloaded if released at least 2-3 months apart..

Its an insanly smart move imo....

I think it probably has more to do with Shrek 2 grossing $441m in that slot. That usually is something studios like to consider


This is the best release date of the year; this is easily one of the smartest schedule changes we've ever seen.

Your analysis makes perfect sense. Shrek 2 grossed 175 mil. more than Shrek. Lot more Shrek fans joined in later, like my daughter who was only 5 months old when the first one was released. She got to know Shrek on DVD and has watched it numerous times. When Shrek 2 was released she was waiting for it.

If the movie is as good as the first one or even the second one, I would say it could be the next 500 mil. domestic movie.