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 I think many of us are too hung up with % drops 
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Ivan K wrote:
Just to add:

One side-effect of this frontloadedness, however, is that a film's box-office performance will no longer be an indicator of the public's affection for/attraction to that film to the extent that it used to be. ET, ANH, Jaws, Raiders, JP, ID4, and Titanic were all hugely popular and beloved films, and still are to a great extent.


Compare their cultural impact to that of, say, Shrek 2. How many people actually have any kind of affection for Shrek 2? If I didn't know that it was the 3rd biggest film of all time, I could never have guessed, whereas it would be very natural that a film like ANH or ET would be near the top.


So, I think that the box office gross by the end of this decade will become more a measure of the marketing department's success in promoting the film rather than a measure of its popularity. For an indication of a film's public impact, I think that DVDs will replace the cinema box office as a more correct measure: if a film has a high rate of rentals and sales over a prolonged period, then that clearly indicates a wide and sustained appeal. Ask yourself this question: five years from now, which film will you be more likely to view on DVD- ET or Shrek 2?


While I certainly agree with you to an extent, especially regarding Shrek 2, I would say that the SM films rank as high as ID4 and maybe even JP when it comes to popularity - they are really beloved films by the general populace (much like the first Batman was). And also, TPOTC was most certainly a reflection of a public "phenomenon" in the vein of ANH and Titanic, though to a lesser extent, so I think that the box office is still a valid gauge of that (and all the more valid so long as DVD figures are still somewhat kept secret ](*,) ). It seems that Shrek 2 was really an anomaly of sorts, but someone mentioned something to me that made a lot of sense - now, we can't really consider the box office success of sequels to be reflective if their effect on pop culture and whatnot, and this is really evident in Shrek 2, MTF, etc., but that measurement is still applicable to original films, which I think, rings true - Pirates, The Passion, Spider-Man, etc.


Sun May 29, 2005 1:52 pm
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Jiffy208 wrote:
While I certainly agree with you to an extent, especially regarding Shrek 2, I would say that the SM films rank as high as ID4 and maybe even JP when it comes to popularity - they are really beloved films by the general populace (much like the first Batman was). And also, TPOTC was most certainly a reflection of a public "phenomenon" in the vein of ANH and Titanic, though to a lesser extent, so I think that the box office is still a valid gauge of that (and all the more valid so long as DVD figures are still somewhat kept secret ](*,) ). It seems that Shrek 2 was really an anomaly of sorts, but someone mentioned something to me that made a lot of sense - now, we can't really consider the box office success of sequels to be reflective if their effect on pop culture and whatnot, and this is really evident in Shrek 2, MTF, etc., but that measurement is still applicable to original films, which I think, rings true - Pirates, The Passion, Spider-Man, etc.


I think it is very true. More then anything else, I think a popular original is the single most powerful factor a film can have these days on opening weekend. More then all the marketing, hype, or the look of the film.


Sun May 29, 2005 2:05 pm
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DP07 wrote:
Jiffy208 wrote:
While I certainly agree with you to an extent, especially regarding Shrek 2, I would say that the SM films rank as high as ID4 and maybe even JP when it comes to popularity - they are really beloved films by the general populace (much like the first Batman was). And also, TPOTC was most certainly a reflection of a public "phenomenon" in the vein of ANH and Titanic, though to a lesser extent, so I think that the box office is still a valid gauge of that (and all the more valid so long as DVD figures are still somewhat kept secret ](*,) ). It seems that Shrek 2 was really an anomaly of sorts, but someone mentioned something to me that made a lot of sense - now, we can't really consider the box office success of sequels to be reflective if their effect on pop culture and whatnot, and this is really evident in Shrek 2, MTF, etc., but that measurement is still applicable to original films, which I think, rings true - Pirates, The Passion, Spider-Man, etc.


I think it is very true. More then anything else, I think a popular original is the single most powerful factor a film can have these days on opening weekend. More then all the marketing, hype, or the look of the film.



Yeah? YEAH???

Let's wait until the sequel to Titanic comes out.

"Jack, you're alive!"

"Yes Rose, I am."

"But I thought you froze to death!"

"No Rose. I merely pretended I was dead so you could let me go and save yourself"

[(audience members: "Aw! I want him as my husband!")- add $50m to the gross]

"Awww, honey, that's so nice of you"

"Yes. Well, then I managed to go back up again to the surface by hanging on to the dead bodies. It was not a pretty sight, but meh".

TITANIC 2: JACK'S BACK


I gather the theme song will be "I'm Still Going On..." by Celine Dion featuring JaRule and 50 Cent.

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Sun May 29, 2005 2:06 pm
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Ivan K wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Jiffy208 wrote:
While I certainly agree with you to an extent, especially regarding Shrek 2, I would say that the SM films rank as high as ID4 and maybe even JP when it comes to popularity - they are really beloved films by the general populace (much like the first Batman was). And also, TPOTC was most certainly a reflection of a public "phenomenon" in the vein of ANH and Titanic, though to a lesser extent, so I think that the box office is still a valid gauge of that (and all the more valid so long as DVD figures are still somewhat kept secret ](*,) ). It seems that Shrek 2 was really an anomaly of sorts, but someone mentioned something to me that made a lot of sense - now, we can't really consider the box office success of sequels to be reflective if their effect on pop culture and whatnot, and this is really evident in Shrek 2, MTF, etc., but that measurement is still applicable to original films, which I think, rings true - Pirates, The Passion, Spider-Man, etc.


I think it is very true. More then anything else, I think a popular original is the single most powerful factor a film can have these days on opening weekend. More then all the marketing, hype, or the look of the film.



Yeah? YEAH???

Let's wait until the sequel to Titanic comes out.

"Jack, you're alive!"

"Yes Rose, I am."

"But I thought you froze to death!"

"No Rose. I merely pretended I was dead so you could let me go and save yourself"

[(audience members: "Aw! I want him as my husband!")- add $50m to the gross]

"Awww, honey, that's so nice of you"

"Yes. Well, then I managed to go back up again to the surface by hanging on to the dead bodies. It was not a pretty sight, but meh".

TITANIC 2: JACK'S BACK


I gather the theme song will be "I'm Still Going On..." by Celine Dion featuring JaRule and 50 Cent.


lmao.

They should re-release Titanic and add more money to it's total! :) Afterall, Star Wars was allowed to do that, and E.T., and so on...

PEACE, Mike ;)


Sun May 29, 2005 2:11 pm
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Ivan K wrote:
deathawk wrote:

What these front loaded films are proving is that to reach Titanic, the controlling factor is not the opening number, or for that matter, the drop. The controlling factor is the number of re-viewings a film can command, and as importantly, the elongation of the time frame in which those re-viewings can be stretched. Films that are massively front loaded are films that do not command large numbers of re-viewings in later months, hence none of them have a prayer.


You need legs, but not the kind of legs that Titanic had, in order to pass $600m.

The daily numbers are becoming so huge that one day is equivalent to a weekend in 1997/1998. Sith's opening day of $50m nearly doubled Titanic's opening weekend. It's first 4 days were bigger than Titanic's first 5 weekends combined.

A film with those kinds of numbers nees moderate drops to cruise past Titanic. I would say that a film with a performance similar to that of Spider-Man 1, only with slightly stronger legs, could do the job.

Consider that by 2010, a film with SM1's exact drops and the same number of admissions would gross $500m due to inflation of ticket prices. A film that followed Shrek 2's pattern would end up with $508m. Those are quite close to Titanic, certainly more so than it might seem at present.

<Example trimmed>
[quote]

So are we agreeing that one of the two possible scenarios to beat Titanic requires inflation to be the controlling factor here, and just disagreeing about the time frame? If so, 5 years, 10 years, 15, I'll go with any - my point is that inflation is the required ingredient for one of these front loaded SM/Shrek/SITH type films to sink the boat.

Otherwise, I stand pat on the point that without inflation to help, the only way for a film to take down Titanic is to behave like Titanic - good opening and then build slightly/drop slightly/build slighty/etc. Front-loading with smaller drops alone is not going to get the job done.


Sun May 29, 2005 3:02 pm
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Post Re: I think many of us are too hung up with % drops
Ivan K wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
This could be the seventh.



The question at present shouldn't be whether the film will reach $400m, but whether it can join ROTK/TPOTC/SM2 in the $370m range. Consider that Sith started out with $108m, and has a second weekend that barely matches, is maybe below that, of TPOTC and ROTK.


Should still get there I mean look at Sith vs SM2 at this point. SM2 made $45m in its second weekend and Sith should make over $55m not including Memorial Day Monday. In terms of percentages SM2 increased 51.7% on its Friday, increased only 29.3% on Saturday, and dropped 25.2% on Sunday. Sith's Friday and Saturday increases were better then what SM2 did.

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All time North American box office.

1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m


Sun May 29, 2005 3:03 pm
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ROTS will likely be the 48th film to cross the $400million mark. Impressive in the age of DVDs and Bit Torrents. :)

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Sun May 29, 2005 4:36 pm
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lilmac wrote:
ROTS will likely be the 48th film to cross the $400million mark. Impressive in the age of DVDs and Bit Torrents. :)


What 47 films crossed 400 mill? :shock:

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Sun May 29, 2005 5:44 pm
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Post Re: I think many of us are too hung up with % drops
baumer72 wrote:
The fact that Sith is dropping about 3% points more than Clones did or is not increasing as much s Clones did or is falling faster than Menace did is causing many of us to shout hysteria. I don't think percentages are the only way to judge a films performance. Sith is making more on a daily basis than both Clones and Menace. Will the legs be as good as Menace? I don't really know and I'm not sure why it really matters. If a film opens to a record breaking amount and then "only " has a 3 multiplier, that still means it makes 450 million dollars. Now I am not saying that Sith is going to reach that, but it will almsot certainly reach 400 mill. And how many films have made 400 mill? SIX. This could be the seventh. That is seven movies in the history of cinema to cross the 400 mill mark. Why it matters if percentage wise the film is slowing down is beyond me. What should be looked at is that on it's second Saturday Sith has made more than both films. It has also grossed more than both other films and therefore, to me it doesn't matter al that much if it doesn't increase by 40% or not. Numbers are numbers, it mde 20 mill on Saturday. It will make about 55 mill for the 3 day weekend. That is an insane pace. I think we all need to reevaluate what we consider to be disappointing. When a film makes 270 mill in 11 days, that is hardly disappointing. It is a smash hit, and nothing can diminish that.


:laugh: I told ya this was gonna happen.. Folks throwing out rumors instead of facts will cause hysteria like this, like this critic on the news this morning saying Longest Yard had bested ROTS in projections for the weekend along with the animated cartoon Madgascar was bound to cause some speculation.. Had it of been true, folks from all websites on the internet and throw the Media in there to, would've said SW was beat out by an Adam Sandler movie so it must be a failure, even after making all that $$$ as quick as it has.. Hmmm, maybe I'll head over to RT or CHUD to see if anyone is running with this.. :-k


Mon May 30, 2005 1:41 am
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baumer72 wrote:
lilmac wrote:
ROTS will likely be the 48th film to cross the $400million mark. Impressive in the age of DVDs and Bit Torrents. :)


What 47 films crossed 400 mill? :shock:



Adjusted list.

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Sun Jun 05, 2005 7:50 pm
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lilmac wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
lilmac wrote:
ROTS will likely be the 48th film to cross the $400million mark. Impressive in the age of DVDs and Bit Torrents. :)


What 47 films crossed 400 mill? :shock:



Adjusted list.


Okay, thanks for clearing that up. :oops:

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Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:59 pm
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